Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5  (Read 253644 times)

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #400 on: 06/22/2018 09:01 PM »
When SpaceX announces firmer plans for Starlink deployments we can add them to the manifest.  That will still be a while.

Offline vaporcobra

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #401 on: 06/26/2018 04:45 PM »
SpaceX's Caryn Schenewerk spoke in the Commercial Space Transportation Regulatory Reform: Stakeholder Perspectives hearing this morning and her testimony included statements that SpaceX was targeting "50% more" launches than 2017 (~27) and/or "more than 25 [launches]" in 2018.

She also reiterated the claim that SpaceX has more than 100 missions on manifest with signed contracts worth more than $12 billion.

At least from the community's crowdsourced manifest, SpaceX has 17 missions at least tentatively penciled in for 2018, at least ~3 of which are almost certainly going to slip to 2019 (in-flight abort, Spaceflight Industries GTO-1, Arabsat 6A). The remaining ~14 missions would bring SpaceX to a total of...exactly 25 launches in 2018.

Regardless, now would be a great time for SpaceX to update its public-facing manifest...

https://transportation.house.gov/uploadedfiles/2018-06-26_-_schenewerk_testimony.pdf

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #402 on: 06/29/2018 06:27 PM »
Ben Cooper's site now shows the next couple flights from the Cape in the early mornings of July 22 (Telstar 19V) and August 2 (Telkom 4).  He has Telstar 18V as NET mid-August, and updated FCC filings show that as NET August 17.  There doesn't appear to be a West Coast flight from SpaceX in August.  September has a couple ULA launches scheduled at Vandenberg so it's gonna be busy out there if SpaceX also manages a September flight.
« Last Edit: 06/29/2018 06:28 PM by gongora »

Online Alexphysics

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #403 on: 06/29/2018 09:28 PM »
It seems Ben Cooper has updated Telstar 18V too, it shows August 17, like on the FCC permit, so all seems to fit nicely.

Online smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #404 on: 06/30/2018 11:43 AM »
Updated SpaceX "FPIP".

I'd like to repeat the disclaimer to this chart:
this is not an attempt to predict actual launch dates or actual launch sequence.
The chart is merely reflects our current knowledge on Falcon's launch schedule - from official (and semi-oficial) sources.

E.g., it is doubtful that the first Dragon v2 flight happens in Sept, yes. But the last official estimate I heard is NET Aug 31, therefore the placement of "Dragon v2" mark on the graph.

In general, I guess that 3-4 flights which are still in the graph - they will slip in 2019.
Nevertheless,
12 launches in 6 months - done. (well done :) )

Go SpaceX !

Offline vaporcobra

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #405 on: 06/30/2018 11:34 PM »
Grains of salt and such, but Brian Webb just updated his VAFB launch schedule.




Online Olaf

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #407 on: 07/10/2018 02:57 PM »
https://twitter.com/TeamSpaceIL/status/1016633238008270850
Quote
We have a launch and landing dates! December 2018- Launch, February 13 2019- First Israeli spacecraft lands on the moon! SpaceIL's moon mission is officially underway
https://twitter.com/Cakeofdestiny/status/1016656640244936704
Quote
It will launch on a SpaceX rocket. SpaceX doesn't usually have exact times this far in advance. We'll know when it's much closer.

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #408 on: 07/10/2018 03:05 PM »
https://twitter.com/TeamSpaceIL/status/1016633238008270850
Quote
We have a launch and landing dates! December 2018- Launch, February 13 2019- First Israeli spacecraft lands on the moon! SpaceIL's moon mission is officially underway
https://twitter.com/Cakeofdestiny/status/1016656640244936704
Quote
It will launch on a SpaceX rocket. SpaceX doesn't usually have exact times this far in advance. We'll know when it's much closer.

I'm not at all sure that the "@Cakeofdestiny" person is associated with SpaceIL or knows what it is launching on.
« Last Edit: 07/10/2018 03:06 PM by gongora »

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #409 on: 07/10/2018 03:17 PM »
https://twitter.com/TeamSpaceIL/status/1016633238008270850
Quote
We have a launch and landing dates! December 2018- Launch, February 13 2019- First Israeli spacecraft lands on the moon! SpaceIL's moon mission is officially underway
https://twitter.com/Cakeofdestiny/status/1016656640244936704
Quote
It will launch on a SpaceX rocket. SpaceX doesn't usually have exact times this far in advance. We'll know when it's much closer.

I'm not at all sure that the "@Cakeofdestiny" person is associated with SpaceIL or knows what it is launching on.

This article confirms it is launching on Falcon 9 in December:

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/248700

Online jpo234

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #410 on: 07/10/2018 03:19 PM »
This article confirms it is launching on Falcon 9 in December:

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/248700

As does this one: https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-first-israeli-spacecraft-set-for-trip-to-the-moon/

Quote
The probe will be launched sometime in December from Cape Canaveral aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, officials said during the media event, held at an Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) space technology site in Yehud. It is scheduled to land on February 13, 2019.
« Last Edit: 07/10/2018 03:20 PM by jpo234 »
You want to be inspired by things. You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great. That's what being a spacefaring civilization is all about. It's about believing in the future and believing the future will be better than the past. And I can't think of anything more exciting than being out there among the stars.

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #411 on: 07/10/2018 03:22 PM »
I think this is the Spaceflight GTO mission that is already on the manifest.  This says that the launch services with Falcon 9 were acquired through Spaceflight Industries.

https://lunar.xprize.org/press-release/israeli-google-lunar-xprize-team-first-sign-launch-agreement-private-mission

Mission will place the spacecraft into a 60,000 km apogee elliptical orbit and then it will make its own way to the moon.

Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #412 on: 07/10/2018 03:25 PM »
https://twitter.com/TeamSpaceIL/status/1016633238008270850
Quote
We have a launch and landing dates! December 2018- Launch, February 13 2019- First Israeli spacecraft lands on the moon! SpaceIL's moon mission is officially underway
https://twitter.com/Cakeofdestiny/status/1016656640244936704
Quote
It will launch on a SpaceX rocket. SpaceX doesn't usually have exact times this far in advance. We'll know when it's much closer.

Yes, gongora, the first part of this post is "likable"  but the second part does not appear to be informed, reliable, or really say anything new.

It is odd how the "launch and landing dates" open in "December" but ends specifically on Feb 13.  That hints at a launch before February. (The first quarter moon of February 2019 occurs at 12:26 AM Feb 13 Tel Aviv time I believe.)  Does that narrow down our dates for the Spaceflight Services GTO launch?
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online jpo234

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #413 on: 07/10/2018 03:27 PM »
I think this is the Spaceflight GTO mission that is already on the manifest.  This says that the launch services with Falcon 9 were acquired through Spaceflight Industries.

https://lunar.xprize.org/press-release/israeli-google-lunar-xprize-team-first-sign-launch-agreement-private-mission

Mission will place the spacecraft into a 60,000 km apogee elliptical orbit and then it will make its own way to the moon.

And this would mean that the SpaceFlight GTO mission is actually happening and that it moved left from 2019.
You want to be inspired by things. You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great. That's what being a spacefaring civilization is all about. It's about believing in the future and believing the future will be better than the past. And I can't think of anything more exciting than being out there among the stars.

Online mn

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #414 on: 07/10/2018 03:27 PM »
This article confirms it is launching on Falcon 9 in December:

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/248700

As does this one: https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-first-israeli-spacecraft-set-for-trip-to-the-moon/

Quote
The probe will be launched sometime in December from Cape Canaveral aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, officials said during the media event, held at an Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) space technology site in Yehud. It is scheduled to land on February 13, 2019.

The Times of Israel article also mentions that it will be a secondary payload, with the primary payload being a communications satellite.

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #415 on: 07/10/2018 03:28 PM »
This is odd.  If it is launching from the Cape then it's either the GTO rideshare that Spaceflight has been extremely quiet about (I've been assuming they would start talking about it after the endlessly slipping SSO-A finally launches) or some other GTO mission like PSN VI (which was rumored to have a US government rideshare companion).

Online jpo234

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #416 on: 07/10/2018 03:37 PM »
This is odd.  If it is launching from the Cape then it's either the GTO rideshare that Spaceflight has been extremely quiet about (I've been assuming they would start talking about it after the endlessly slipping SSO-A finally launches) or some other GTO mission like PSN VI (which was rumored to have a US government rideshare companion).

On the XPrize link they say:
Quote
SpaceIL has purchased launch services from Spaceflight Industries; an American space company who recently purchased a SpaceX Falcon 9 launcher and will manifest SpaceILís spacecraft as a co-lead spot, which will sit in a designated capsule inside the launcher, among a cluster of secondary payloads.
« Last Edit: 07/10/2018 03:39 PM by jpo234 »
You want to be inspired by things. You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great. That's what being a spacefaring civilization is all about. It's about believing in the future and believing the future will be better than the past. And I can't think of anything more exciting than being out there among the stars.

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #417 on: 07/10/2018 03:38 PM »
This is odd.  If it is launching from the Cape then it's either the GTO rideshare that Spaceflight has been extremely quiet about (I've been assuming they would start talking about it after the endlessly slipping SSO-A finally launches) or some other GTO mission like PSN VI (which was rumored to have a US government rideshare companion).

On the XPrize link they say:
Quote
Launch Contract for a 2017 Mission, Using a SpaceX Falcon 9 Launcher via Spaceflight Industries

I wouldn't count on that still being accurate.  It might be, but rideshare payloads move around all the time.

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #418 on: 07/10/2018 03:45 PM »
Put any further SpaceIL discussion in this thread for now:
SpaceX : SpaceIL secondary payload : Dec. 2018 : Temporary Thread

Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #419 on: 07/11/2018 01:53 AM »
Someone in charge of a payload on STP-2 told me that he has been told by the mission that the launch target is now November 30.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

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