Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5  (Read 169896 times)

Offline vaporcobra

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #180 on: 12/15/2017 07:24 AM »
A rarity... Telkom's CEO said on Thursday that Telkom 4 is to be launched in May 2018, vs. the original August 2018 NET as of several months ago. Google Translate is clearly struggling, but the reason provided for the movement was "faster manufacturing process." Unclear if that refers to SpaceX or Telkom, but it could be possible that Telkom 4 has moved to a flight-proven booster to get an earlier launch date, Iridium-4 is (sort of) a precedent for that.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BctC2AbnmXX/

Offline JamesH65

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #181 on: 12/15/2017 11:43 AM »
A rarity... Telkom's CEO said on Thursday that Telkom 4 is to be launched in May 2018, vs. the original August 2018 NET as of several months ago. Google Translate is clearly struggling, but the reason provided for the movement was "faster manufacturing process." Unclear if that refers to SpaceX or Telkom, but it could be possible that Telkom 4 has moved to a flight-proven booster to get an earlier launch date, Iridium-4 is (sort of) a precedent for that.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BctC2AbnmXX/

Could just be that when others move to reused boosters, the waiting time for new also reduces.

Offline SpaceGoo

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #182 on: 12/18/2017 05:51 PM »
Just some end of the year observations.  If the Iridium flight launches on Friday and the first stage is recovered that will be 18 flights this year.  5 out of the 18  (28%) will have been with reused first stages.  The first stage flew 2 times in the same year for 4 out of the 5 reused flights.  They successfully recovered 15 out of 18 (83%) first stages.
« Last Edit: 12/18/2017 05:56 PM by SpaceGoo »

Offline punder

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #183 on: 12/18/2017 05:58 PM »
Just some end of the year observations.  If the Iridium flight launches on Friday and the first stage is recovered that will be 18 flights this year.  5 out of the 18  (28%) will have been with reused first stages.  The first stage flew 2 times in the same year for 4 out of the 5 reused flights.  They successfully recovered 15 out of 18 (83%) first stages.

Welcome, SpaceGoo!

I would add, barring a problem on the upcoming Iridium flight, they successfully recovered all the first stages they intended to recover.

Offline Lar

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #184 on: 12/18/2017 06:15 PM »
Maybe better suited for the poll threads but I think 15/15 (recovered/planned to recover) is a far more meaningful stat than 15/18 .... Let's see what happens in a few days.
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Offline SpaceGoo

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #185 on: 12/18/2017 07:07 PM »
Just some end of the year observations.  If the Iridium flight launches on Friday and the first stage is recovered that will be 18 flights this year.  5 out of the 18  (28%) will have been with reused first stages.  The first stage flew 2 times in the same year for 4 out of the 5 reused flights.  They successfully recovered 15 out of 18 (83%) first stages.

Welcome, SpaceGoo!

I would add, barring a problem on the upcoming Iridium flight, they successfully recovered all the first stages they intended to recover.


A good point from both of you.  I realize that the payload determines if they will plan for recovery or not.  I was thinking more in terms of number of first stages available for reflight.  To me, this is a great start towards operational reuse and establishing an initial capability.  Will be interested how these numbers change over the next couple of years.
« Last Edit: 12/18/2017 07:21 PM by SpaceGoo »

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #186 on: 12/18/2017 07:58 PM »
[Yonhapnews] Korea's test moon orbit line shoots in America 'Space X'
Quote
Korea Aerospace Research Institute has selected SpaceX (USA) as a launching service for the Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO), which will be launched in 2020
...
The launch will be the Cape Canaveral Air Force Base in Florida, USA.

Antexis of India participated in the open bidding for the trial lunar launch service.

The company chose Space X as the preferred bidder through the evaluation and negotiated the final contract on the 15th.
...
The Korean lunar orbit line is 550kg.

If anyone sees more information about this please post a link

edit: saw a couple more Korean sources saying the same thing.
Emily Lakdawalla had a recent story on the project with more information, she says the target date is Dec. 2020:
[The Planetary Society] South Korea's first lunar mission planned for 2020
« Last Edit: 12/18/2017 08:19 PM by gongora »

Offline vaporcobra

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #187 on: 12/18/2017 08:22 PM »
I have a PDF of a KPLO PI's presentation in October. A NASA official also told a Planetary Society reporter that the launch was more specifically scheduled for December 2020 as of a few weeks ago, but it may still be in flux, so I wouldn't put too much weight on that date.
http://www.planetary.org/blogs/emily-lakdawalla/2017/1207-koreas-first-lunar-mission.html

I just reached out to KARI's press contact and will report back if I get any additional info :)
« Last Edit: 12/18/2017 08:24 PM by vaporcobra »

Offline Salo

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #188 on: 12/19/2017 04:24 AM »
https://www.nasa.gov/launchschedule/#.U0NkJ6L-6c4
Quote
Date: April 14, 2018
Mission: GRACE FO (GRACE Follow-On)

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #189 on: 12/19/2017 05:28 PM »
https://www.nasa.gov/launchschedule/#.U0NkJ6L-6c4
Quote
Date: April 14, 2018
Mission: GRACE FO (GRACE Follow-On)

That would put Iridium Next 5 in mid-February if evenly spaced between 4 and 6.
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Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #190 on: 12/19/2017 05:47 PM »
https://www.nasa.gov/launchschedule/#.U0NkJ6L-6c4
Quote
Date: April 14, 2018
Mission: GRACE FO (GRACE Follow-On)

That would put Iridium Next 5 in mid-February if evenly spaced between 4 and 6.

Iridium launches are supposed to be roughly every 60 days.
I think Dec 22 to Apr 14 is 121 days which is right on pace.
Halfway in between is Feb 16 or so.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #191 on: 12/19/2017 06:03 PM »
The gaps might not be 60 days around Iridium-6, there are fewer sats to deal with.  I wouldn't expect Iridium-5 before a few weeks into February, they've never had to turn around that pad in less than a month before.  Now I'm wondering about SSO-A, would be surprised if that doesn't slip to May.  Also really no chance of Iridium finishing deployment by end of June.
« Last Edit: 12/19/2017 06:03 PM by gongora »

Offline LM13

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #192 on: 12/19/2017 06:54 PM »
From the FH Update Thread:

FAA thinks launch is close:

Quote
Second day of the Next-Generation Suborbital Researchers Conference starts with keynotes by FAA’s George Nield and NASA’s Steve Jurczyk. #NSRC2017
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/943132943383453697

Quote
Nield: 2017 has been pretty exciting for commercial spaceflight, but 2018 will be even more exciting, starting with Falcon Heavy first launch in the next month. #NSRC2017
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/943135747477065728

Can we interpret from the second tweet that FH is to launch before Zuma?  Does that mean an FH launch before January 4, or that Zuma has slipped? 

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #193 on: 12/19/2017 07:01 PM »
From the FH Update Thread:

FAA thinks launch is close:

Quote
Second day of the Next-Generation Suborbital Researchers Conference starts with keynotes by FAA’s George Nield and NASA’s Steve Jurczyk. #NSRC2017
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/943132943383453697

Quote
Nield: 2017 has been pretty exciting for commercial spaceflight, but 2018 will be even more exciting, starting with Falcon Heavy first launch in the next month. #NSRC2017
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/943135747477065728

Can we interpret from the second tweet that FH is to launch before Zuma?  Does that mean an FH launch before January 4, or that Zuma has slipped?

I'd say no. It is the exciting part that is starting with FH. Not the first launch of the year.

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #194 on: 12/21/2017 03:19 PM »
The gaps might not be 60 days around Iridium-6, there are fewer sats to deal with.  I wouldn't expect Iridium-5 before a few weeks into February, they've never had to turn around that pad in less than a month before.  Now I'm wondering about SSO-A, would be surprised if that doesn't slip to May.  Also really no chance of Iridium finishing deployment by end of June.

I thought the pacing items was commissioning the in orbit satellites, meaning not before the previous launches satellites are commissioned.
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Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #195 on: 12/21/2017 03:21 PM »
The gaps might not be 60 days around Iridium-6, there are fewer sats to deal with.  I wouldn't expect Iridium-5 before a few weeks into February, they've never had to turn around that pad in less than a month before.  Now I'm wondering about SSO-A, would be surprised if that doesn't slip to May.  Also really no chance of Iridium finishing deployment by end of June.

I thought the pacing items was commissioning the in orbit satellites, meaning not before the previous launches satellites are commissioned.

They said they've gotten that under 60 days.

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #196 on: 12/23/2017 02:38 AM »
Year end archive of the current manifest

Discussion of the manifest, and updates. The best guess at the current manifest is in this post. 
Discussion of the table format should be done here: SpaceX Manifest Table Format Discussion
Prior thread: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4

Sites:
      C=the Cape (KSC/CCAFS) (UTC-4 EDT,UTC-5 EST)
            CCAFS SLC-40: Damaged by vehicle explosion (no launches until around October 2017, no earlier than September)
            KSC LC-39A: Active for F9, will need further work for FH and Commercial Crew
      V=Vandenberg (UTC-7 PDT,UTC-8 PST)
            SLC-4E: Active for F9
      B=Boca Chica (UTC-5 CDT,UTC-6 CST)
            Site preparation work underway

U.S. daylight saving time starts second Sunday in March, ends first Sunday in November, time changes at 2:00 a.m. local time

       Local        LV  Core   Ret- .                             .    Mass   .     Mis-
Est. Date,  Time/UTC.   S/N    urn  Payload(s)                    Orb  (kg)   Site sion
------------------- --- ------ ---  ----------------------------  ---  -----  -----  ----
2017-01-14  0954/-8F91029.1SIridium NEXT (Flight 1)PLR9600V-4E30
2017-02-19  0939/-5F91031.1LCRS SpX-10LEO~10kC-39A31
2017-03-16  0200/-4F91030XEchostar 23GTO~5500C-39A32
2017-03-30  1827/-4F91021.2SSES-10GTO5282C-39A33
2017-05-01  0715/-4F91032LNROL-76LEO?C-39A34
2017-05-15  1921/-4F91034XInmarsat 5 F4GTO6086C-39A35
2017-06-03  1707/-4F91035.1LCRS SpX-11LEO~10kC-39A36
2017-06-23  1510/-4F91029.2SBulgariaSat-1GTO3669C-39A37
2017-06-25  1325/-7F91036.1SIridium NEXT (Flight 2)PLR9600V-4E38
2017-07-05  1938/-4F91037XIntelsat 35eGTO6761C-39A39
2017-08-14  1231/-4F91039LCRS SpX-12LEO~10kC-39A40
2017-08-24  1151/-7F91038SFORMOSAT-5SSO475V-4E41
2017-09-07  1000/-4F91040LAir Force X-37B OTV-5LEO5400C-39A42
2017-10-09  0537/-7F91041SIridium NEXT (Flight 3)PLR9600V-4E43
2017-10-11  1853/-4F91031.2SSES-11/Echostar 105GTO5200C-39A44
2017-10-30  1534/-4F91042SKoreasat-5AGTO3700C-39A45
2017-12-15  1036/-5F91035.2LCRS SpX-13LEO~10kC-4046
2017-12-22*1727/-8F91036.2XIridium NEXT (Flight 4)PLR9600V-4E47
------------------- --- ------ ---  ----------------------------  ---  -----  ----- ----
2018-01-04  2000/-5F91043LZumaLEO?C-4048
2018-early (NET)HRNR*LLSFalcon Heavy Demo Flight..C-39A(50)
2018-01-30  1623/-5F9RSGovSat-1 (SES-16)GTO4000C.
2018-01-30F9R.PAZ & Microsat 2a/2bSSO1400V-4E.
2018-H1F9.XHispasat 1F (30W-6)GTO6092C.
2018-03-13F9.LCRS SpX-14LEO~10kC.
2018-03F9N.BangabandhuGTO~3500C.
2018-Q1F9R?Iridium NEXT (Flight 5)PLR9600V-4E.
2018-Q1F9.SSES-12GTO5300C.
2018-03-20F9N.NASA (TESS)HEO325C .
2018-04-14F9N.Iridium NEXT 6/GRACE-FOPLR~6kV-4E.
2018-04F9.?CCtCap DM1LEO.C-39A.
2018-Q2F9.?Telstar 18 Vantage/Apstar-5CGTO>5400C.
2018-Q2F9.?Telstar 19 VantageGTO>5400C.
2018-04F9..Spaceflight SSO-A (575km)SSO.V-4E.
2018-05 (NET)F9..USAF GPS III-1MEO3880C.
2018-05 (NET)F9..Telkom 4GTO.C.
2018-midH.LLSSTP-2 (US Air Force)MEO~8k?C-39A.
2018-Q2F9..Iridium NEXT (Flight 7)PLR9600V-4E.
2018-06-06F9.LCRS SpX-15LEO~10kC.
2018-06F9..Iridium NEXT (Flight 8)PLR9600V-4E.
2018-06F9.?SAOCOM 1ASSO2800V-4E.
2018-H1F9.SEs'hail 2GTO~3kC.
2018-midF9..CCiCap In-Flight Abort TestSUB.CN/A
2018H..Arabsat 6AGTO~6kC-39A.
2018F9.?PSN-6 and co-passengerGTO5000C.
2018-08F9.LCRS SpX-16LEO~10kC.
2018-08F9..CCtCap DM2 (Crew)LEO.C-39A.
2018-Q3F9R.RADARSAT ConstellationSSO~1.5kV-4E.
2018F9..OHB SARah 1SSO~2200V-4E.
2018-10F9.LCRS SpX-17LEO~10kC.
2018-Q4 (NET)F9..Spaceflight GTO (200x60k/km)GTO.C(70)
2018-12F9.LCRS SpX-18LEO~10kC.
2019F9..GiSat-1GTO~6kC.
2019 (NET)H.???SpaceX Crewed CircumlunarTLI~10k?C-39A.
2019F9..CRS SpX-19-20LEO.C.
2019-02F9..USAF GPS III-3?MEO3880C.
2019-Q2F9R.AMOS-17GTO5500C(81)
2019F9..SAOCOM 1B and companionsSSO~3-4kV-4E.
2019F9..OHB SARah 2/3SSO~3600V-4E .
2019-H2F9..JCSAT-18/Kacific-1GTO~6k+C.
2019F9..SiriusXM SXM-7GTO.C(80)
2020F9..SiriusXM SXM-8GTO.C(80)
2020F9..Türksat 5AGTO3500C.
2020-H2F9..AMOS-8GTO.C(81)
2020-11F9..Sentinel-6 (Jason-CS)LEO1440V-4E.
2020F9..Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter?550C(82)
2020-2021H..ViaSat 3-Americas or 3-EMEAGTO6400C(85)
2021F9..Türksat 5BGTO4500C.
2021-04F9..SWOTLEO2000V-4E.
2022 (NET)BFR..MarsTMI.?.
TBD (2019-2024)F9..Commercial Crew (6 flights)LEO.C-39A.
TBD (2020-2024)F9..CRS-2 (6+ flights)LEO.C.
NET 2018-Q4F9..Spaceflight SSO-B (500km)SSO.V-4E(70)
NET 2019-Q4F9..Spaceflight GTO(200x36k/km)GTO.C(70)
NET 2020F9..Spaceflight SSO-C (500km SSO)SSO.V-4E(70)
Companies that appear to have contracts for unspecified payloads: Eutelsat, Inmarsat (x2?), Bigelow

Date: *=Local date differs from UTC date
Return: L=Land,S=Sea,X=Expendable,N/A=Not Applicable
Launch Vehicle: F9=Falcon 9, H=Falcon Heavy, F=Falcon 9 or Heavy
Core: *=FH core numbers in footnotes, N=New, R=Reused
Mission: Blue number indicates additional information in footnotes.
Colors: Successful / Unsuccessful / Mars!!!! / Footnotes

NOTES:
(50) FH Demo - Serial Numbers: Center:1033  Side1:1023.2  Side2: 1025.2
(70) Spaceflight Industries : Upcoming Spaceflight Ind. schedule update
(80) Sirius SXM-7, SXM-8 : SSL Contract Press Release / Gunter
(81) Spacecom Amos-17, Amos-8 SpaceNews
(82) Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter : Post
(85) Viasat 3 : one of first two Viasat 3 birds in mid-2019 or early-2020.  Also third Viasat 3 if it gets built?
  ViaSatellite 2/10/16 SpaceNews 2/10/2016 Gunter

Possible future payloads:

Competitions for future payloads:
Air Force - EELV, First 5 / Phase 1A-6

L2 notes on manifest:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44432.msg1758806#msg1758806

Upcoming Mars Launch Windows: 2020-06, 2022-08, 2024-09, 2026-11, 2029-01

L2 SpaceX CRS External Cargo
L2 Level SpaceX Falcon 9 Stage Watch / Public Core Spotting
SpaceX Launch Log (past launches) / Wikipedia Falcon Launches
Viewing flights from Vandenberg / Ben Cooper's Viewing Guide for Cape Canaveral
Upcoming SpaceX Talks / General Industry Talks
SpaceX Falcon Mission Simulations
SpaceX Eastern Range Landing Facilities


Recent Edits:
Dec 19  Moved GRACE-FO from March to April 14
Dec 18  Added Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO) in 2020
Dec 14  Moved Telkom 4 from August 2018 to NET May 2018.
Dec 12  The May 2018 GPS mission changed from GPS III-2 to GPS III-1
Nov 24  Moved Bangabandhu from February to March
Nov 12  Moving Hispasat 30W-6 to first half of 2018 as there is much uncertainly about the launch date.
Nov 09  Adding Türksat 5A in 2020 and Türksat 5B in 2021
Oct 19  Moving Iridium NEXT Flight 4 to Dec 22 from late November.  Adding Sentinel-6A in November 2020.
Oct 18  Adding Amos-17 in Q2-2019 and Amos-8 in H2-2020.  Putting most of the Spaceflight Industries flights down in the TBD list at the end until we have a better idea when they will actually fly.  Moved GiSat-1 from 2018-Q4 to 2019.
Oct 14  Added Mystery Payload Codename Zuma in mid-November (this was formerly listed as unknown Northrop Grumman)
Oct 09  PAZ moved to Jan 30 from December.
« Last Edit: 12/23/2017 02:38 AM by gongora »

Offline vaporcobra

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #197 on: 12/23/2017 05:29 AM »
SpaceFab.US apparently has two Waypoint space telescopes manifested as copassengers on SpaceX launches in 2019 and 2020.

Quote
So a little bit of news... I am now part owner of the first company ever to build a commercial space telescope satellite, and this thing can be used by anyone! You can use it for deep space astrophotography, land surveys of the Earth, or even Hyperspectral images of your farmland. We have two slots secured on Space X Falcon 9 rockets in 2019 and 2020 for our first launches! Huge thanks to SpaceFab.US for making me a part of the adventure!
https://www.instagram.com/p/BdB6XReFIsj/?taken-by=gibsonpics

Offline deruch

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #198 on: 12/23/2017 02:04 PM »
SpaceFab.US apparently has two Waypoint space telescopes manifested as copassengers on SpaceX launches in 2019 and 2020.

Quote
So a little bit of news... I am now part owner of the first company ever to build a commercial space telescope satellite, and this thing can be used by anyone! You can use it for deep space astrophotography, land surveys of the Earth, or even Hyperspectral images of your farmland. We have two slots secured on Space X Falcon 9 rockets in 2019 and 2020 for our first launches! Huge thanks to SpaceFab.US for making me a part of the adventure!
https://www.instagram.com/p/BdB6XReFIsj/?taken-by=gibsonpics

Probably on Spaceflight Industries launches, no? 
Shouldn't reality posts be in "Advanced concepts"?  --Nomadd

Offline mn

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #199 on: 12/25/2017 04:19 PM »
Once again there's a launch on both coasts with an NET on the same day (PAZ and GovSat both NET Jan 30th),

(We got close with Iridium 2 and BulgariaSat with both launches moving but not ending up on the same date)

Let's see if these dates hold.

(once upon a time there was a chart showing how accurate SpaceX NET dates hold up from x days out, anyone remember where that was?)

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