SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5

[FutureSpaceTourist]

And it seems, according to Irene Klotz, won’t be until December:

#SpaceX Zuma off range at least until it reopens after annual maintenance Dec 1
http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/spacex-classified-zuma-launch-delayed-until-least-december

https://twitter.com/free_space/status/932689217599213568

[deruch]

I tend not to look at the FAA site nearly as often as I look at the FCC site, but SpaceX should be needing at least 8 new or modified FAA launch licenses through next April/May (including Zuma which apparently won't ever be publicly available on their site, just like Formosat 5.)  Some to watch out for as their flights approach would be FH Demo, GTO flights from SLC-40, PAZ, TESS, GRACE-FO, DM-1, SSO-A.

I believe TESS was contracted through NASA Launch Services and as such won't require a FAA launch license.  Non-commerical.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Interview with Gwynne Shotwell:

http://spacenews.com/spacex-aims-to-follow-a-banner-year-with-an-even-faster-2018-launch-cadence/

Includes this on launches next year:

“We will increase our cadence next year about 50 percent,” Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX president and COO, told SpaceNews in an interview last week. “We’ll fly more next year than this year, knock on wood, and I think we will probably level out at about that rate, 30 to 40 per year.”

[AbuSimbel]

So a mature rate of 30 to 40 missions per year for F9 and FH without accounting for the constellation she says. Wow.

[gongora]

It's really unlikely they fly more than about 30 next year, unless there are more mystery payloads.  30 should catch them up on their manifest.

[mn]

It's really unlikely they fly more than about 30 next year, unless there are more mystery payloads.  30 should catch them up on their manifest.

Doesn't seem like she's even expecting 30 next year. (unless you think they end up with more than 20 this year).

“We will increase our cadence next year about 50 percent,” Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX president and COO, told SpaceNews in an interview last week. “We’ll fly more next year than this year, knock on wood, and I think we will probably level out at about that rate, 30 to 40 per year.”

But really I think 'cadence' and actual numbers are not the same thing. You can have a general flow that supports x number per year, but actual numbers will generally be less due to breaks in the rhythm. (as was the case this year).

[gongora]

Did CRS-14 slip a month?

[evertiq] Denmark’s next major space project prepared for launch

The Atmosphere-Space Interactions Monitor (ASIM), is on its way to the US to be prepared for launch from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida to the International Space Station (ISS).

The launch is scheduled for Tuesday, 13 March 2018, and ASIM is planned for launch on the SpaceX Falcon 9 launcher.

[input~2]

Bangabandhu launch now planned for March 2018
(source)

[Salo]

https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/935256052240650242

Chris B - NSF‏ @NASASpaceflight
SpaceX returns to SLC-40 for the next mission - Falcon 9 launch with CRS-13 Dragon. Static Fire is currently waiting on a firm date (Wednesday no longer the target). Launch date now has a NASA planning date of December 8, but don't go booking flights until this all firms up.

[vaporcobra]

FWIW, SpaceX was granted FCC licenses for a launch (Mission 1389) from LC-40 and ASDS recovery NET 1/15/17, almost certainly Govsat.

[mn]

Update re SpaceIL (putting it here since I don't see a thread dedicated to this and it's potentially on the SpaceX manifest somewhere)

... Only two weeks before its completion, $20 million are needed by the end of the year to prevent the project’s termination. This would result in the cancellation of the launch planned for 2018 ...

More details here: http://www.spaceil.com/news/spaceil-alerts-the-national-dream-in-danger-of-closing/

[jpo234]

Zuma just officially moved to SLC-40.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

I've just noticed that CRS-14 is listed on the manifest as reusing a booster.

Is that an assumption or have I missed an announcement? I thought the CRS-13 statement on reuse said NASA would look at it on a case-by-case basis for each launch and thus, although perhaps likely, it's not yet official whether CRS-14 would reuse?

[macpacheco]

I've just noticed that CRS-14 is listed on the manifest as reusing a booster.

Is that an assumption or have I missed an announcement? I thought the CRS-13 statement on reuse said NASA would look at it on a case-by-case basis for each launch and thus, although perhaps likely, it's not yet official whether CRS-14 would reuse?

If you read the details on what NASA did for CRS-13 reuse permission, they're just reviewing SpaceX work. So as long as SpaceX is just as careful, there's no reasonable expectation NASA will say no. Its NASA folks justifying their jobs and covering their rears.
The key is CRS-13/Govsat-1 and Iridium launches going without a hitch. That will add up to 6 (hoperfully successful) relaunches.

[Jakusb]

I've just noticed that CRS-14 is listed on the manifest as reusing a booster.

Is that an assumption or have I missed an announcement? I thought the CRS-13 statement on reuse said NASA would look at it on a case-by-case basis for each launch and thus, although perhaps likely, it's not yet official whether CRS-14 would reuse?

If you read the details on what NASA did for CRS-13 reuse permission, they're just reviewing SpaceX work. So as long as SpaceX is just as careful, there's no reasonable expectation NASA will say no. Its NASA folks justifying their jobs and covering their rears.
The key is CRS-13/Govsat-1 and Iridium launches going without a hitch. That will add up to 6 (hoperfully successful) relaunches.

Don’t forget FH Demo adding another 2 flight-proven stages being reflown.

I believe there are 1 or 2 other flight-proven cores without a mission, so at this point we are almost running out of flight-proven stages.

This will change with Block 5 being able to refly 10 times without serious refurb.

[JBF]

I've just noticed that CRS-14 is listed on the manifest as reusing a booster.

Is that an assumption or have I missed an announcement? I thought the CRS-13 statement on reuse said NASA would look at it on a case-by-case basis for each launch and thus, although perhaps likely, it's not yet official whether CRS-14 would reuse?

If you read the details on what NASA did for CRS-13 reuse permission, they're just reviewing SpaceX work. So as long as SpaceX is just as careful, there's no reasonable expectation NASA will say no. Its NASA folks justifying their jobs and covering their rears.
The key is CRS-13/Govsat-1 and Iridium launches going without a hitch. That will add up to 6 (hoperfully successful) relaunches.

Don’t forget FH Demo adding another 2 flight-proven stages being reflown.

I believe there are 1 or 2 other flight-proven cores without a mission, so at this point we are almost running out of flight-proven stages.

This will change with Block 5 being able to refly 10 times without serious refurb.

Don't count your chickens before they hatch.  Although that is the design goal; they may not hit it with the first iteration.

[gongora]

This thread isn't for general discussion of reuse.  It's for discussing entries on the launch manifest.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Update re SpaceIL (putting it here since I don't see a thread dedicated to this and it's potentially on the SpaceX manifest somewhere)

... Only two weeks before its completion, $20 million are needed by the end of the year to prevent the project’s termination. This would result in the cancellation of the launch planned for 2018 ...

More details here: http://www.spaceil.com/news/spaceil-alerts-the-national-dream-in-danger-of-closing/

Update:

SpaceIL making final fundraising push for lunar lander mission
by Jeff Foust — December 14, 2017

WASHINGTON — SpaceIL, the Israeli team in the Google Lunar X Prize competition, says it needs to raise $7.5 million in less than a week in order to complete its lander and retain its launch contract.

http://spacenews.com/spaceil-making-final-fundraising-push-for-lunar-lander-mission/

Still not revealing which SpaceX launch they are aiming for and admit it's very tight - even with funding - to get all the required testing done in time to meet Xprize deadline of end of March 2018.

[gongora]

Update:

SpaceIL making final fundraising push for lunar lander mission
by Jeff Foust — December 14, 2017

WASHINGTON — SpaceIL, the Israeli team in the Google Lunar X Prize competition, says it needs to raise $7.5 million in less than a week in order to complete its lander and retain its launch contract.

http://spacenews.com/spaceil-making-final-fundraising-push-for-lunar-lander-mission/

Still not revealing which SpaceX launch they are aiming for and admit it's very tight - even with funding - to get all the required testing done in time to meet Xprize deadline of end of March 2018.

Saying it's a supersync GTO comsat launch is a lot more information than we had before, although not enough to really figure out which flight.  It doesn't sound like they have any intention at all of launching before the Xprize deadline, and they don't control their schedule anyway as a secondary payload.

[smoliarm]

...
Saying it's a supersync GTO comsat launch is a lot more information than we had before, although not enough to really figure out which flight. 
...

Well, looks like it is enough
Of course this is enough only -
IF -- 1. the launch of that primary payload is indeed scheduled for the first quarter
AND
IF -- 2. that primary payload is indeed going for SUPERSYNC

THEN

for the first quarter SpaceX has four GTO missions:

Jan 30, 2018...SES-16 (GovSat-1)... ~4000 kg
Feb xx, 2018...SES-12...5300 kg
early (?) 2018...Hispasat 30W-6 (1F)...6092 kg
Mar xx, 2018...Bangabandhu-1...wt unknown

Hispasat is too heavy for supersync GTO with current version of F9 (actually, it's too heavy for any co-passenger);
SES-12 is too heavy as well - if we take into account SpaceIL weight;
SES-16 (GovSat-1) is way too early;

Which leaves us with the only option - Bangabandhu-1