SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5

[saliva_sweet]

FCC APPLICATIONS ARE NET DATES, NOT LAUNCH DATES.

Yup, poor phrasing on my part. Still expected to go ASAP from 39A before it's taken over by the heavy.

[Comga]

As for the manifest, we have no info suggesting launches not on our list being inserted.

There are approved FCC licences for an RTLS launch 1390 from 39A on November 10th.

1446-EX-ST-2017:
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80568&RequestTimeout=1000

1318-EX-ST-2017:
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80217&RequestTimeout=1000

And now we do
Good
My personal list had something in what nowadays looks like a big gap at 28 days.
My objection above was people discussing WHY SpaceX had a gap.
There are other threads for those discussions.
Now if we can just figure out what the payload is.
My list had Hispasat in this gap but Chris G says Hispasat is too heavy for the permitted RTLS.

edit:  We are all posting the same things at the same time.  I linked to Chris G's post just as he cross posted it. 

Gongora: Do you mean the permit thought to be Hispasat 30W-6 is for NEXT June 30, as in 2018?
Should you move Hispasat down the list, but leave the line, change the date to the 10th, and put on a likely core number?

[Norm38]

So with the mystery payload, SpaceX may make 20 flights for the year after all. Suddenly the goal of 30 next year doesn't seem like such a stretch.

[gongora]

Gongora: Do you mean the permit thought to be Hispasat 30W-6 is for NEXT June 30, as in 2018?
Should you move Hispasat down the list, but leave the line, change the date to the 10th, and put on a likely core number?

No, the FCC permit we think would be for Hispasat has a start date of June 30, 2017.  It's valid through the end of the year (and is for 39A, so who knows, maybe it gets replaced with a different permit if they change the pad).

[Salo]

http://www.satellitetoday.com/telecom/2017/06/22/cpi-will-provide-antenna-systems-skyvisions-gisat-1/

CPI expects delivery and installation of the antennas to begin in mid-2018 and to be completed in 2019.

http://www.boeing.com/space/boeing-satellite-family/index.page#/launch-schedule

GiSAT-1    702    Global IP    2019    Falcon 9

[Salo]

https://www.nasa.gov/launchschedule/

Date: June
Mission: TESS (Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite)

[smoliarm]

Here is a new "FPIP chart" for SpaceX.
This time, as we are well into 4th quarter, I shifted the window to include the 1Q 2018.
So, there are many new points on the chart and a lot of guesswork.
Therefore, I'd be grateful for any corrections/suggestions before I put the chart on the first page of this thread.

Once again, the purpose of this chart is not an attempt to predict, but to visualize the launch cadence in near future and possible schedule conflicts.

Couple specific questions:

We do know that SpaceX CAN do launches only 10-12 days apart on LC-39A. What do you think about Vandenberg's SLC-4E? It still has old style TEL (open type) - may this slow down the operation?

Is there any general clues on *specialization* of the Cape pads? All I know is that LC-39A will be used for all FH launches and all CCT-related launches. Any other clues would be helpful for the chart.
For example - if military launches will prefer SLC-40?
Also - will NASA prefer to use LC-39A for CRS flights?

[gongora]

Here is a new "FPIP chart" for SpaceX.
This time, as we are well into 4th quarter, I shifted the window to include the 1Q 2018.
So, there are many new points on the chart and a lot of guesswork.
Therefore, I'd be grateful for any corrections/suggestions before I put the chart on the first page of this thread.

ORS-6 should be changed to SSO-A (I think that will launch a couple months later but not sure yet.)  SAOCOM-1A has slipped to June.  The Vandenberg schedule is going to be interesting in the first half of 2018 but I doubt they need to do rapid turnarounds.  I'd be surprised if they try a pace faster than 3 launches in two months at any point on the west coast next year.  It's highly unlikely that all of the flights we currently have listed for the first half of 2018 actually get launched in the first half of 2018.

At the Cape I would still put TESS in March.

SpaceX will still be constrained by launch vehicle availablility for much (all?) of 2018 so expect slips to the right on a lot of the flights.

[mn]

Does anyone know,
Which one of Spaceflight flights is the one with Space IL, and what is the chance for that to launch on time for the Xprize?

Not seen anything since:
http://spacenews.com/spaceflight-to-launch-terra-bella-satellites-on-falcon-9-mission/
and
https://qz.com/962696/spaceil-the-israeli-team-competing-for-the-google-lunar-xprize-wont-make-it-to-the-starting-line/

Based on those, it appears to be a 'Spaceflight Industries' flight but not the Sun Synch Express flight and that won't be until 2018. So the chances look extremely slim unless the Xprize deadline is extended.

Here's the latest I can find on SpaceIL (this was published on September 17):

https://www.israel21c.org/spanish-firm-delivers-shell-for-spaceils-race-to-the-moon/

Teams at SpaceIL and IAI will now enter the assembly and integration phase. The launch is expected to take place in 2018 on a rocket from Elon Musk’s private space transport company, SpaceX

[Chris Bergin]

Chris Gebhardt's overview article on upcoming:
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2017/10/spacex-zuma-iridium-4-aims-vandenberg-landing/

[almightycat]

SpaceX has been contracted to launch Amos-17 and Amos-8 in Q2 2019 and H2 2020: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-com-spacex-satellite/spacex-spacecom-to-launch-new-satellites-after-explosion-last-year-idUSKBN1CN1FD

[Galactic Penguin SST]

SpaceX has been contracted to launch Amos-17 and Amos-8 in Q2 2019 and H2 2020: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-com-spacex-satellite/spacex-spacecom-to-launch-new-satellites-after-explosion-last-year-idUSKBN1CN1FD

Something of note:
- AMOS-17, ordered from Boeing, is the replacement satellite for AMOS-5 (built by the Russians and failed after less than 4 years in service)
- As late as this July the decision of whether to build AMOS-8 inside house by IAI or to order it aboard has yet to be decided!

[gongora]

SpaceX has been contracted to launch Amos-17 and Amos-8 in Q2 2019 and H2 2020: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-com-spacex-satellite/spacex-spacecom-to-launch-new-satellites-after-explosion-last-year-idUSKBN1CN1FD

And the other thing of note, the Amos-17 launch is free to make up for the Amos-6 failure.

[jpo234]

SpaceX has been contracted to launch Amos-17 and Amos-8 in Q2 2019 and H2 2020: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-com-spacex-satellite/spacex-spacecom-to-launch-new-satellites-after-explosion-last-year-idUSKBN1CN1FD

With 2018 already full beyond the 30 missions Elon suggested at IAC, the 2019 manifest starts to fill up.

[gongora]

I'm not sure 2018 is beyond 30 missions yet, I think I'm going to remove the Spaceflight Industries entries after SSO-A until we hear whether/when those are actually booked.  When the GPS satellite will launch is also kinda uncertain right now.

[jpo234]

SpaceX has been contracted to launch Amos-17 and Amos-8 in Q2 2019 and H2 2020: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-com-spacex-satellite/spacex-spacecom-to-launch-new-satellites-after-explosion-last-year-idUSKBN1CN1FD

And the other thing of note, the Amos-17 launch is free to make up for the Amos-6 failure.

They got the AMOS-6 launch for $50 mln.

Spacecom was an early customer for SpaceX with Amos-6, and paid about $50 million for the launch.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Something I can't see in the reuters write-up (my emphasis):

Jeff Foust‏ @jeff_foust 31m31 minutes ago

If the Google translation is correct, Amos 17 will launcher free under the contract for the lost Amos 6 satellite, with a reused 1st stage.

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/920664676068884480

The Spacecom press release (in Hebrew) is attached for anyone who can read it.

[docmordrid]

Hmmmm.....in an article about the ZUMA launch

http://www.popularmechanics.com/space/rockets/news/a28661/spacex-mystery-launch-november-2017/

>
It's also possible that SpaceX's last mission of the year, the Spanish communications satellite Hispasat, could fly on the inaugural launch of the Falcon Heavy rocket.
>

[abaddon]

I'd take that with a huge grain of salt...

[gongora]

Popular Mechanics is not a credible source for our manifest information.