SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5

[mandrewa]

It's 3 Falcon 9 launches, half? an Ariane 5 launch, and half an Ariane 64 launch.

See Michael Sheetz's tweet above. 

twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1306658123680223233

Quote:

Here is how these Intelsat contracts break down, with 7 satellites launching on 4 rockets:

– 2 on Falcon 9 (Q3 '22)
– 2 on Falcon 9 (Q3 '22)
– 2 on Ariane 5 (Q4 '22)
– 1 on either Ariane 6 or Falcon 9 (Q3 '23)

Edit: And then I realize I made a mistake. 

It's four rockets?  Then $390 million doesn't make any sense!!  Is that supposed to be Falcon Heavies?  If not is it seven launches like I assumed?  Or is the price of the satellites part of the $390 million?

[gongora]

It's 3 Falcon 9 launches, half? an Ariane 5 launch, and half an Ariane 64 launch.

See Michael Sheetz's tweet above. 

twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1306658123680223233

Quote:

Here is how these Intelsat contracts break down, with 7 satellites launching on 4 rockets:

– 2 on Falcon 9 (Q3 '22)
– 2 on Falcon 9 (Q3 '22)
– 2 on Ariane 5 (Q4 '22)
– 1 on either Ariane 6 or Falcon 9 (Q3 '23)

Yes.  2 confirmed F9.  1 confirmed Ariane 5, which may be two sats stacked in a single berth.  Either Ariane 6 or Falcon 9 will launch the seventh sat, and the other vehicle will get something else to launch.  Total: 3 F9, 1 A5, 1 A6

edit:  Further price speculation doesn't belong here.  There are threads for the launches now.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/free_space/status/1309515417703120897

Air Force  clears @spacex to fly two upcoming GPS satellites on previously flown @spacex Falcon 9 rockets, saving $26m per flight, says Dr Walt Lauderale

[FutureSpaceTourist]

More detail on USAF booster reuse:

https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1309532875205861377

After SpaceX successfully recovered the Falcon 9 rocket booster after the GPS III SV-03 launch in June, the U.S. Space Force's SMC amended its contract with the company to allow for recovery and reuse for the upcoming SV-04, SV-05, and SV-06 missions.

twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1309533181046124546

SMC Falcon chief Dr. Walt Lauderdale: “I am proud of our partnership with SpaceX that allowed us to successfully negotiate contract modifications for the upcoming GPS III missions that will save taxpayers $52.7 million while maintaining our unprecedented record of success.”

https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1309533573591060480

SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell: "We appreciate the effort that the U.S. Space Force invested into the evaluation ... Our extensive experience with reuse has allowed SpaceX to continually upgrade the fleet and save significant precious tax dollars on these launches.”

[gongora]

https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-awards-launch-services-contract-for-imap-mission
Sept. 25, 2020
CONTRACT RELEASE C20-026

NASA Awards Launch Services Contract for IMAP Mission

NASA has selected Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) of Hawthorne, California, to provide launch services for the agency’s Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe (IMAP) mission, which includes four secondary payloads. IMAP will help researchers better understand the boundary of the heliosphere, a magnetic barrier surrounding our solar system. This region is where the constant flow of particles from our Sun, called the solar wind, collides with winds from other stars. This collision limits the amount of harmful cosmic radiation entering the heliosphere. IMAP will collect and map neutral particles that make it through, as well as investigate the fundamental processes of how particles are accelerated in space, from its vantage point orbiting the Sun at the Lagrange 1 point directly between the Sun and Earth.

The total cost for NASA to launch IMAP and the secondary payloads is approximately $109.4 million, which includes the launch service and other mission related costs.

The secondary payloads to be included with the launch of IMAP are: NASA’s Lunar Trailblazer mission, two additional NASA heliophysics missions of opportunity yet to be named, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Follow On-Lagrange 1 (SWFO-L1) mission.

The IMAP mission is targeted to launch in October 2024 on a Falcon 9 Full Thrust rocket from Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida.

NASA’s Launch Services Program at the agency’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida will manage the SpaceX launch service. The mission is led by Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Maryland. NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, is responsible for the mission’s overall management, system engineering, integration, and testing and mission operations.

[gongora]

KPLO by the Falcon 9 rocket was set for Aug. 01, 2022
https://twitter.com/Kor_Spaceflight/status/1310068736619982848

[Orbiter]

Hans seemed to imply today that CRS-21 will launch from LC-39A due the ability of being able to use the crew arm to late-load cargo on the pad.

[Zed_Noir]

Hans seemed to imply today that CRS-21 will launch from LC-39A due the ability of being able to use the crew arm to late-load cargo on the pad.

Think the Cargo Dragon will likely be launched mostly from LC-39A since you don't have to lower the Falcon 9 to horizontal to access the Dragon interior there. IMO

[su27k]

Has this mystery payload been discussed before?

https://twitter.com/nextspaceflight/status/1311101591496224769

SpaceX is targeting no earlier than October for a Falcon 9 mission featuring a return to launch site recovery, per an FCC filing. No missions on SpaceX's publicly-known manifest seem to be a good fit. It could *possibly* be an unannounced mission.

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=102332

And no, it is not CRS-21. Filings for the CRS-21 mission can be found below. That mission is an ASDS recovery.

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=102802&RequestTimeout=1000

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=102959&RequestTimeout=1000

Further discussion: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45440.280

[gongora]

Has this mystery payload been discussed before?

It was mentioned in the mission paperwork thread:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45440.msg2136954#msg2136954

If CRS-2 missions are RTLS ASDS landings then it would seem to be a mission that isn't currently on our manifest.  I guess we'll find out if a rocket appears at the pad and none of the publicly known customers have said they're launching at the time.

[ZachS09]

I’m assuming the mystery payload is gonna be a ZUMA reflight.

Maybe NG had a backup satellite in storage and decided to include that in SpaceX’s manifest.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/johnkrausphotos/status/1313423281236647936

The National Reconnaissance Office has confirmed it will launch a payload on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral later this month, a mission on SpaceX’s schedule that was not publicly disclosed until recently.

FULL STORY: spaceflightnow.com/2020/10/05/nro…

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

What a spaghetti schedule.

For the GPS launch. If it doesn't launch by 10-11-20 it likely would not launch until Nov. Although it could be replaced in the schedule by L13. Depending on where in the processing the booster and components are in their schedule. Also the NRO-108 is likely to use 1060.3 for it's booster since by 10-25 it would be 42 days in the boosters's cycle.

[wannamoonbase]

Now adding Starlink 15

My gosh, what a log jam.  GPS, NRO, Crew 1, 3 starlinks, Sirius and a VAFB launch.

That's 8 launches in the very near future.  The Navy is not going to get any rest.

[smoliarm]

...
My gosh, what a log jam. 
...

I don't think it's a jam.
More likely some of these launches were already moved to the right - we just don't know which ones.
Below I attached current "SpaceX FPIP-chart"
It shows that - if this schedule holds - we would see a string of 8 to 9 launches during October and November.
Well, my records show the best "long cadence" for SpaceX is 6 launches in 61 days (Jan 31 2018 - Apr 2 2018).

So most likely some of these will go to "early 2021"

[Zed_Noir]

Presuming no launch hiccups. We have a spooks round of launches just before Halloween. 

Starlink flt 14
NROL-44
GPS III SV4
NROL-108
NROL-101
Starlink flt 15

Some suit in an nondescript office somewhere must be feeling anxiety over the dollars that the upcoming East coast NROL flights along with the West coast NROL-82 flight  represents.

note 1 - GPS III SV4 have to be flown before NROL-108 to validated newly build Falcon 9 cores for NRO & NASA.

note 2 - the Starlink flights are somewhat tenuously linked to the spooks in that some of them might be future communication relays for the spooks. Also to padded the list. 

[gongora]

Presuming no launch hiccups. We have a spooks round of launches just before Halloween. 

Starlink flt 14
NROL-44
GPS III SV4
NROL-108
NROL-101
Starlink flt 15

Some suit in an nondescript office somewhere must be feeling anxiety over the dollars that the upcoming East coast NROL flights along with the West coast NROL-82 flight  represents.

note 1 - GPS III SV4 have to be flown before NROL-108 to validated newly build Falcon 9 cores for NRO & NASA.

note 2 - the Starlink flights are somewhat tenuously linked to the spooks in that some of them might be future communication relays for the spooks. Also to padded the list. 

I'm not sure anything but the two Starlink flights on that list have a launch date right now.  The GPS payload was returned to the payload processing facility tonight.  I'm not sure anything else relies on GPS flying first.  It's quite possible nothing on that list besides the Starlinks fly this month.  The manifest is a bit of a mess right now.  We'll see how it plays out over the next couple months.

[Jansen]

There are currently 5 regular F9 boosters available for reuse:

B1049 - Starlink v1.0 L15 integration?
B1051 - Offloaded from ASDS
B1058 - Reprocessing for CRS-21
B1059 - NROL-108 integration HIF SLC-40
B1060 - Starlink v1.0 L14 ASDS recovery

New boosters:
B1061 - Dragon C207 Resilience (Crew-1)
B1062 - GPS III SV04 Sacagawea (engine investigation)
B1063 - Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich

B1064 - FH side USSF-44
B1065 - FH side USSF-44
B1066 - FH center USSF-44

Launch list for Eastern Range:
NROL-108
Crew-1
GPS III-SV04
SXM 7
CRS 21
Turksat 5A
Transporter 1
Starlink v1.0 L15 (non-priority/flexible)

[Arb]

Priority list for Eastern Range:
...

Is this inside knowledge or supposition on your part? If the latter, it's considered good etiquette on NSF to make that clear.

[Jansen]

It’s basically the current launch list, already prioritized by SX. The only launch that isn’t a priority is the Starlink launches. I can change the terminology if you feel it is not a good fit.