SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

According to this schedule SpaceX Crew-3 - mid August 2021
https://sma.nasa.gov/docs/default-source/sma-disciplines-and-programs/smsr/smsr-intergrated-master-schedule_24feb2020.pdf

I'm waiting for the next round of schedule updates from that document or some other source before I worry much about the Commercial Crew dates in the second half of 2021.

Even though the date in the document name is February 24, the actual content in the document is from July 28, 2020.

If I remember correctly the Crew-1 date at that time was late August / early September. So it jives with that Crew-1 schedule at that time. So if it is still to occur before the operational flight of Starliner then it would be Late October now for Crew-3. But Depending on how successful or not the Starliner OFT-2 and DEMO-1 are, things can be different.

[rasumner]

Why are there no flights of the Dragon XL to the moon on the manifest?

[gongora]

Why are there no flights of the Dragon XL to the moon on the manifest?

That contract hasn't really been funded yet, and we have no idea when flights would be if it does get funded.

[gongora]

Apparently the Indonesian Satria satellite, owned by a consortium that includes PSN, built by Thales Alenia, will launch on Falcon 9 in 2023 (if they've secured financing).  The launch contract was announced in Indonesian media on August 22, 2019.

[from today]
https://www.liputan6.com/tekno/read/4347150/ini-alasan-indonesia-pakai-roket-spacex-untuk-luncurkan-satelit-satria
https://www.liputan6.com/tekno/read/4347085/snt-gandeng-thales-alenia-space-siap-bangun-satelit-satria-senilai-rp-8-triliun
https://www.thalesgroup.com/en/worldwide/space/press-release/satria-indonesian-telecommunication-satellite-activities-will-start

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/1301534187393081344

A year after contracting w/@Thales_Alenia_S, @SpaceX for 150-Gbps Satria broadband sat, Indonesia hasn't secured financing. @Bpifrance @AIIB_Official. @PSNengage. Launch date TBD.https://bit.ly/31T9LHl

https://www.satellite-evolution.com/single-post/2020/09/07/The-SATRIA-Project-initiated-by-the-Ministry-of-Communication-and-Informatics-led-by-PSN-Consortium-to-officially-commence-construction-in-September-2020

[from August 2019]
https://www.liputan6.com/tekno/read/4044569/satelit-satria-bakal-meluncur-dengan-roket-falcon-9
https://inet.detik.com/telecommunication/d-4676974/akhir-2022-spacex-nya-elon-musk-luncurkan-satria

[from June 2019]
https://spacenews.com/psn-plans-vhts-satellite-for-2023/

[Elthiryel]

https://twitter.com/SpcPlcyOnline/status/1301556047983841280

Having JUST launched a Starlink mission this morning, SpaceX has now opened media accreditation for the next one!  In October.

It has to be media accreditation for the 15th mission (V1.0 L14), as they already opened accreditation for the 14th mission in August (and it's still NET September according to Ben Cooper).

SpaceX has opened media accreditation for "the fourteenth Starlink mission" (Starlink V1 L13) NET September 2020.

[soltasto]

Yes, the mail is:

HAWTHORNE, Calif. – September 3, 2020. Accreditation is now open for SpaceX’s fifteenth Starlink mission, which will launch from Space Launch Complex 40 (SLC-40) at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. The launch is targeted for no earlier than October.

[gongora]

The SpaceX CRS and CC flight dates will need to be coordinated now that they have to contend for docking port availability.  If the plan is still to do direct handovers of the crew then SpX-22 will have to fly after Crew 2 arrives and Crew 1 leaves (unless Crew 1 gets delayed).  I would expect SpX-22 and SpX-23 to both shift a month (at least) from the dates currently shown on the SMSR schedule.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Nice 4k visualisation of Block 5 manifest launched so far

https://twitter.com/_rykllan/status/1305069581451567106

All Falcon 9 Block 5 launches in one render. Begins w/ the first launch in May 2018 and ends w/ recent in the beginning of September

@elonmusk @FelixSchlang @spaceXcentric @MarcusHouseGame @SpaceX #Falcon9

[gongora]

Looks like 3 4 sats in two launches for SpaceX

https://www.intelsat.com/newsroom/intelsat-finalizes-satellite-and-launch-vehicle-contracts-for-u-s-c-band-spectrum-transition/

McLean, VA – Intelsat, operator of the world’s largest integrated satellite and terrestrial network, today announced it has finalized all of its required contracts with satellite manufacturers and launch-vehicle providers to move forward and meet the accelerated C-band spectrum clearing timelines established by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) earlier this year.

The company has entered into a formal agreement with U.S.-based Maxar Technologies to build the final satellite required to support its C-band transition and maintain the FCC’s post-transition, “same or better” quality-of-service standard. Earlier this summer, Intelsat announced manufacturing contracts with Maxar and U.S.-based Northrop Grumman for six satellites.

Intelsat has contracted with SpaceX and Arianespace to launch these satellites on four separate launch vehicles, beginning in 2022. The diversity of manufacturers and launch-vehicle providers will lower transition program costs and help Intelsat mitigate potential launch-delay risks that could prevent the company from meeting the FCC’s accelerated clearing deadlines.

“We have made exceptional progress to date in executing our transition plan,” said Intelsat Chief Services Officer Mike DeMarco. “We’re moving forward at an accelerated pace to clear portions of the C-band spectrum and help cement America’s leadership in 5G.”

“We’re committed to maintaining this momentum, and we look forward to collaborating with our longstanding partners, Maxar, Northrop Grumman, SpaceX and Arianespace, on these important contracts to ensure we can continue to provide the high-quality, uninterrupted television, radio and data services that more than 100 million American homes and businesses have come to rely upon,” continued DeMarco.

On August 14, Intelsat filed its final C-band spectrum transition plan with the FCC. The comprehensive plan details the steps required for Intelsat to reconfigure its satellite and terrestrial infrastructure to enable 5G deployment in C-band. Intelsat will relocate its existing customer services to the upper part of the C-band to make way for 5G services in the lower portion of the band.

Intelsat was launched with President John F. Kennedy’s signing of the U.S. Satellite Communications Act into law in 1962. With administrative headquarters in McLean, Virginia, 24/7 satellite operations centers in California and Virginia, a 24/7 network operations center in Georgia, and staffed teleport locations in California, Colorado, Georgia, Hawaii, and Maryland, Intelsat employs more than 1,000 Americans across 11 states. More than 100 million U.S. households rely on Intelsat for their TV service, and Intelsat is the largest provider of satellite communications services to the U.S. military. Intelsat helps U.S. mobile operators of any size expand 4G and 5G broadband coverage to rural America.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Intelsat has contracted with SpaceX and Arianespace to launch these satellites on four separate launch vehicles

twitter.com/chrisg_nsf/status/1306607712533438470

If I’m reading between the lines of the announcement correctly, that would be Ariane 5, Ariane 6, Falcon 9, and Falcon Heavy.

https://twitter.com/nextspaceflight/status/1306607977198092294

Yes, I believe so. And Arianespace confirmed in a separate release that they will have two launches. Dual satellites on an Ariane 5 and a single satellite on Ariane 6.

So 2 satellites on the FH launch?

[gongora]

We're not really sure yet exactly what these Intelsat launches involve.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/nextspaceflight/status/1306610454370766848

Correction: It is seven total satellites. I misread the release. The manufacturer (Maxar) for one additional satellite was announced today.

Will be four satellites launched with SpaceX and three satellites with Arianespace.

[gongora]

That would be Intelsat 31,32,33,34.  Not sure on the launch vehicles yet.

[abaddon]

That would be Intelsat 31,32,33,34.  Not sure on the launch vehicles yet.

Interesting, so four satellites on two launches, one F9 and one FH?  A curious mix.

EDIT - where is the "reading between the lines" on the FH coming from, is there a separate PR from SpaceX?  Or is one of the contracted satellites too heavy for an F9?

[FutureSpaceTourist]

EDIT - where is the "reading between the lines" on the FH coming from, is there a separate PR from SpaceX?  Or is one of the contracted satellites too heavy for an F9?

It all hinges on how to interpret ‘four launch vehicles’. Is that simply four launches, or four types of rocket?

Edit to add: I initially read it as the latter, but now lean towards the former.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1306658123680223233

Here is how these Intelsat contracts break down, with 7 satellites launching on 4 rockets:

– 2 on Falcon 9 (Q3 '22)
– 2 on Falcon 9 (Q3 '22)
– 2 on Ariane 5 (Q4 '22)
– 1 on either Ariane 6 or Falcon 9 (Q3 '23)

https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1306658362743021578

Intelsat declined my request for comment on how the $390 million will be split between SpaceX and Arianespace, citing confidentiality agreements.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/17/spacex-and-arianespace-win-390-million-worth-of-intelsat-launches.html

[gongora]

From the CNBC article linked above:

Intelsat will award whichever company doesn’t launch the seventh satellite with a contract for a separate later launch, the company told CNBC.

[abaddon]

From the CNBC article linked above:

Intelsat will award whichever company doesn’t launch the seventh satellite with a contract for a separate later launch, the company told CNBC.

Sounds like Ariane 6 is the intended launcher for #7 and Falcon 9 is backup if Ariane 6 isn't ready in time, since they really can't afford to have these launches slip.  With the unselected company getting a different follow-on contract.

So $390 for four launches might look something like:
Ariane 5 - ~$130 million (but according to https://www.seradata.com/arianespace-lowers-ariane-5-launch-price-to-combat-spacex-in-asia-pacific-contest/ this supposedly should be more like ~$100 million)
Falcon 9x2 - ~$120 million?
Ariane 6 + Falcon 9 - ~$80 million + ~$60 million == ~$140 million?

I'm assuming that the total cost includes both the A6 and F9 launch for that 7th satellite, otherwise the numbers just don't work, and that makes sense that Intelsat is just buying a future ride from whoever isn't used for that bird.  The numbers also don't work if Ariane 5 is as low as the article suggests, but $130 million seems plausible.

Based on these guesstimates the split would be $180 million for 3 F9 launches and $210 million for the A5 and A6 launches combined.

[mandrewa]

From the CNBC article linked above:

Intelsat will award whichever company doesn’t launch the seventh satellite with a contract for a separate later launch, the company told CNBC.

Sounds like Ariane 6 is the intended launcher for #7 and Falcon 9 is backup if Ariane 6 isn't ready in time, since they really can't afford to have these launches slip.  With the unselected company getting a different follow-on contract.

So $390 for four launches might look something like:
Ariane 5 - ~$130 million (but according to https://www.seradata.com/arianespace-lowers-ariane-5-launch-price-to-combat-spacex-in-asia-pacific-contest/ this supposedly should be more like ~$100 million)
Falcon 9x2 - ~$120 million?
Ariane 6 + Falcon 9 - ~$80 million + ~$60 million == ~$140 million?

I'm assuming that the total cost includes both the A6 and F9 launch for that 7th satellite, otherwise the numbers just don't work, and that makes sense that Intelsat is just buying a future ride from whoever isn't used for that bird.  The numbers also don't work if Ariane 5 is as low as the article suggests, but $130 million seems plausible.

Based on these guesstimates the split would be $180 million for 3 F9 launches and $210 million for the A5 and A6 launches combined.

I thought we are talking about either five Falcon 9 launches and two Ariane 5 launches or four Falcon 9 launches and two Ariane 5 launches and one Ariane 6 launch.  Why not assume that the price for the Falcon 9 launches is what SpaceX is publicly asserting, $50 million apiece?  And since Ariane 6 is supposed to be cheaper than Ariane 5 and it is also intended to compete with SpaceX and since this will be one of Ariane 6's first flights, assume that Arianespace will charge $50 million for it also, regardless of what it actually costs.

So that would give $250 million for either five Falcon 9 launches or four Falcon 9 launches plus one Ariane 6 launch.

And that would leave two Ariane 5 launches at $70 million apiece.

The reason for Intelsat doing this, paying more for Ariane 5, would be similar to the logic of NASA supporting two launchers for manned space flight.  They want to have alternatives and redundancy.

[gongora]

From the CNBC article linked above:

Intelsat will award whichever company doesn’t launch the seventh satellite with a contract for a separate later launch, the company told CNBC.

Sounds like Ariane 6 is the intended launcher for #7 and Falcon 9 is backup if Ariane 6 isn't ready in time, since they really can't afford to have these launches slip.  With the unselected company getting a different follow-on contract.

So $390 for four launches might look something like:
Ariane 5 - ~$130 million (but according to https://www.seradata.com/arianespace-lowers-ariane-5-launch-price-to-combat-spacex-in-asia-pacific-contest/ this supposedly should be more like ~$100 million)
Falcon 9x2 - ~$120 million?
Ariane 6 + Falcon 9 - ~$80 million + ~$60 million == ~$140 million?

I'm assuming that the total cost includes both the A6 and F9 launch for that 7th satellite, otherwise the numbers just don't work, and that makes sense that Intelsat is just buying a future ride from whoever isn't used for that bird.  The numbers also don't work if Ariane 5 is as low as the article suggests, but $130 million seems plausible.

Based on these guesstimates the split would be $180 million for 3 F9 launches and $210 million for the A5 and A6 launches combined.

I thought we are talking about either five Falcon 9 launches and two Ariane 5 launches or four Falcon 9 launches and two Ariane 5 launches and one Ariane 6 launch.  Why not assume that the price for the Falcon 9 launches is what SpaceX is publicly asserting, $50 million apiece?  And since Ariane 6 is supposed to be cheaper than Ariane 5 and it is also intended to compete with SpaceX and since this will be one of Ariane 6's first flights, assume that Arianespace will charge $50 million for it also, regardless of what it actually costs.

So that would give $250 million for either five Falcon 9 launches or four Falcon 9 launches plus one Ariane 6 launch.

And that would leave two Ariane 5 launches at $70 million apiece.

The reason for Intelsat doing this, paying more for Ariane 5, would be similar to the logic of NASA supporting two launchers for manned space flight.  They want to have alternatives and redundancy.

It's 3 Falcon 9 launches, half? an Ariane 5 launch, and half an Ariane 64 launch.