Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5  (Read 242101 times)

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #60 on: 09/19/2017 06:46 PM »
(That would line up with Raul's interpretation of the FCC permit numbering, which I'd been a little skeptical about.)

Where is Raul's interpretation?

Part of it was in PM's we exchanged, but basically it boiled down to whether or not the F9-35 permit was ever used.  Raul thought it wasn't, which would make the numbers line up better.  It gets a bit confusing since SpaceX stopped publicly saying which mission number was used for a flight.

Offline stcks

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #61 on: 09/19/2017 09:13 PM »
Part of it was in PM's we exchanged, but basically it boiled down to whether or not the F9-35 permit was ever used.  Raul thought it wasn't, which would make the numbers line up better.  It gets a bit confusing since SpaceX stopped publicly saying which mission number was used for a flight.

Ah ok. I was hoping for some kind of algorithm to make sense of them.

Offline Raul

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #62 on: 09/20/2017 01:37 PM »
Btw, you can always find my pairing of FCC application mission numbering (M13xx) with mission name in this Spx map - layer "Falcon 9 v1.2. flights", or in last hazard area maps (#5, #6).

In case of all past missions.. booster recovery position, initially issued in FCC application just under that mission numbering, later matches with hazard area issued before each mission or AIS data of recovery vessel during mission.

Offline DaveJes1979

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #63 on: 09/28/2017 06:15 PM »
I see there are still no Vandenberg RTLS launches listed on the manifest.

Also, there are zero Falcon Heavies scheduled for Vandenberg.  Did they scrap plans to make the Vandenberg pad compatible with Heavy?

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #64 on: 09/28/2017 06:16 PM »
I see there are still no Vandenberg RTLS launches listed on the manifest.

Also, there are zero Falcon Heavies scheduled for Vandenberg.  Did they scrap plans to make the Vandenberg pad compatible with Heavy?

Need to sell a launch for a west coast FH first.  Why spend the money, any FH launch from VAFB will have a long enough lead time to complete the mods.
Jonesing for a copy of 'Tales of Suspense #39'

Offline Raul

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #65 on: 09/28/2017 10:05 PM »
I see there are still no Vandenberg RTLS launches listed on the manifest.

According to EverydayAstronaut first RTLS at VAFB should be approved for Iridium-4 mission.

Offline Jakusb

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #66 on: 09/29/2017 02:52 PM »
In Elon's presentation the 20 missions this year was still aimed for.
13 down, 7 to go.

Known:
1) SES-11
2) IridiumNext-3
3) KoreaSat-5

Expected and most likely:
4) IridiumNext-4
5) CRS-13

Hoped:
6) FH Demo

Which would be the most likely 7th mission?
- Hispasat 1F (30W-6)
- GovSat-1 (SES-16)
- Bangabandhu
- PAZ & co-passenger

Somehow I find it a bit strange that we still have 10 more missions NET 2017 and SpaceX aiming to fly 7 of them..

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #67 on: 09/29/2017 03:40 PM »
In Elon's presentation the 20 missions this year was still aimed for.
13 down, 7 to go.

Known:
1) SES-11
2) IridiumNext-3
3) KoreaSat-5

Expected and most likely:
4) IridiumNext-4
5) CRS-13

Hoped:
6) FH Demo

Which would be the most likely 7th mission?
- Hispasat 1F (30W-6)
- GovSat-1 (SES-16)
- Bangabandhu
- PAZ & co-passenger

Somehow I find it a bit strange that we still have 10 more missions NET 2017 and SpaceX aiming to fly 7 of them..

I'm thinking Bangabandhu and PAZ slip to January.

Also, which is making me really confused about what SpaceX is doing with the pads right now, SpaceX filed FCC permit applications today moving TWO flights from pad 40 back to 39A.  One of them appears to be Koreasat 5A, which was obvious.  The other would appear to be CRS-13, which I find a bit strange.

Offline russianhalo117

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #68 on: 09/29/2017 03:53 PM »
In Elon's presentation the 20 missions this year was still aimed for.
13 down, 7 to go.

Known:
1) SES-11
2) IridiumNext-3
3) KoreaSat-5

Expected and most likely:
4) IridiumNext-4
5) CRS-13

Hoped:
6) FH Demo

Which would be the most likely 7th mission?
- Hispasat 1F (30W-6)
- GovSat-1 (SES-16)
- Bangabandhu
- PAZ & co-passenger

Somehow I find it a bit strange that we still have 10 more missions NET 2017 and SpaceX aiming to fly 7 of them..

I'm thinking Bangabandhu and PAZ slip to January.

Also, which is making me really confused about what SpaceX is doing with the pads right now, SpaceX filed FCC permit applications today moving TWO flights from pad 40 back to 39A.  One of them appears to be Koreasat 5A, which was obvious.  The other would appear to be CRS-13, which I find a bit strange.
PAZ has to Target a specific spot to fly with its DLR companion satellites so that they can do joint science.

Offline ZachS09

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #69 on: 09/29/2017 04:01 PM »
Now that I'm somewhat convinced that the Falcon Heavy Demo flight will be delayed into early 2018, I'm guessing that the following missions will round out 2017:

1: SES-11/EchoStar 105

2: Iridium-NEXT F3

3: Koreasat 5A

4: Iridium-NEXT F4

5: SpaceX CRS-13

6: Hispasat 30W-6

7: SES-16/GovSat
Because the Falcon Heavy Test Flight was successful, it has inspired thousands of people to consider changing the future of space travel.

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #70 on: 09/29/2017 04:11 PM »
To go from the pace of 20 launches a year to 30 will require significant changes and improvements in testing, processing and launching. 

2018 will be excited, FH, Dragon 2, Block 5, launch rate.

Exciting times.
Jonesing for a copy of 'Tales of Suspense #39'

Offline Tass

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #71 on: 09/30/2017 05:55 PM »
The 2022 mission of the BFR to Mars!!! should be made red in the top post.
« Last Edit: 09/30/2017 05:56 PM by Tass »

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #72 on: 10/02/2017 12:30 AM »
Updates from SpaceflightNow schedule:

Koreasat 5A - Oct. 30, 3:34-5:58 EDT
CRS-13 Nov. 28
CRS-14 Feb. 9

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #73 on: 10/02/2017 12:48 AM »
There are a few changes on the SpaceflightNow schedule that weren't listed at the top.  One of them is Crew Dragon Demo 1 moving to April.  This really wouldn't be a surprise (frankly I would find it encouraging if Crew Dragon is only slipping a couple more months at this point, and SpaceX is already doing other NASA launches in February and March).

Offline First Mate Rummey

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #74 on: 10/04/2017 04:09 PM »
You may want to add 2 cargo BFR in 2022 and 2 cargo + 2 crewed BFR in 2024... just to adhere to recent plan.  :D

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #75 on: 10/04/2017 04:17 PM »
You may want to add 2 cargo BFR in 2022 and 2 cargo + 2 crewed BFR in 2024... just to adhere to recent plan.  :D

No. I'll add more BFR flights in a few years if they appear to be sticking with that schedule.

Offline vaporcobra

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #76 on: 10/05/2017 05:05 AM »
Seems unlikely, but a cubesat copassenger on CRS-14 (Overview 1A and 1B) suggested a launch date of 1/26/18.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BZHVuAYnKHu/

Offline Olaf

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #77 on: 10/05/2017 05:55 AM »
Seems unlikely, but a cubesat copassenger on CRS-14 (Overview 1A and 1B) suggested a launch date of 1/26/18.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BZHVuAYnKHu/
That seems to be an old date, the newest one is 2/9/18.

Online Welsh Dragon

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #78 on: 10/05/2017 07:46 AM »
I'm assuming you mean February, not September? People need to make their dates unambiguous.

Offline SmallKing

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #79 on: 10/05/2017 08:30 AM »
I'm assuming you mean February, not September? People need to make their dates unambiguous.
February
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