Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5  (Read 1037094 times)

Online Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #440 on: 08/14/2018 03:22 am »
(Snip)
There is great uncertainty in several of the launches from Florida the rest of the year (GPS, DM-1, STP-2).  Wouldn't be surprised if one or more of those slipped a bit.

The surprise will be how far STP-2 slides right, past the end of the year, to March.
Considering DM-1 is supposed to be in December, DM-2 in April, with the Launch Abort test between them, that still seems wedged in, but its what I was told.

DM-1 is November, not December.
So you say
Doesn’t impact the main comment.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Semmel

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #441 on: 08/14/2018 08:03 am »
Why is the CAA installation taking so long? I dont understand the motivation behind the delays and I would like to understand it.

Offline Alexphysics

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #442 on: 08/14/2018 10:06 am »
They're working on the FSS new levels and that takes some time, they need to do that before installation of the CAA.

Offline Jakusb

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #443 on: 08/14/2018 10:52 am »
I guess a new FPIP would be nice...
- GPS III-1 seems to depend on DM-1 to fly first
- DM-1 is now November
- According to Ben Cooper no flights between Aug 23rd and end of October at East Coast
- Es'hail Q4 according to @eshailsat, so that would be likely beginning of November (is Ben Cooper is correct), could potentially be close to DM-1, being on 2 different pads..
- IridiumNEXT-8 definitely not September, satellites are not ready yet, according to @IridiumBoss
- STP-2 now pushed into 2019

Online smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #444 on: 08/17/2018 04:59 am »
I guess a new FPIP would be nice...
...
- STP-2 now pushed into 2019
The updated chart is coming ;)
and
haven't seen info on STP-2 "pushed into 2019"

Offline Jakusb

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #445 on: 08/17/2018 09:23 am »
I guess a new FPIP would be nice...
...
- STP-2 now pushed into 2019
The updated chart is coming ;)
and
haven't seen info on STP-2 "pushed into 2019"
Sorry that was supposed to have a question mark behind it...
It is more of a strong assumption.
It is either 2019 with prior mission going right towards end of 2018, or it has to jump left in between DM-1 and IFA, with no hardware seen yet...
All focus seems on DM-1, IFA and DM-2 now. Which flow is much more important then STP-2...
Anyway, assumption.

Online Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #446 on: 08/17/2018 12:29 pm »
I guess a new FPIP would be nice...
...
- STP-2 now pushed into 2019
The updated chart is coming ;)
and
haven't seen info on STP-2 "pushed into 2019"
Sorry that was supposed to have a question mark behind it...
It is more of a strong assumption.
It is either 2019 with prior mission going right towards end of 2018, or it has to jump left in between DM-1 and IFA, with no hardware seen yet...
All focus seems on DM-1, IFA and DM-2 now. Which flow is much more important then STP-2...
Anyway, assumption.
A question mark is not needed
STP-2 is NET March 2019
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline envy887

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #447 on: 08/17/2018 12:34 pm »
I guess a new FPIP would be nice...
...
- STP-2 now pushed into 2019
The updated chart is coming ;)
and
haven't seen info on STP-2 "pushed into 2019"
Sorry that was supposed to have a question mark behind it...
It is more of a strong assumption.
It is either 2019 with prior mission going right towards end of 2018, or it has to jump left in between DM-1 and IFA, with no hardware seen yet...
All focus seems on DM-1, IFA and DM-2 now. Which flow is much more important then STP-2...
Anyway, assumption.
A question mark is not needed
STP-2 is NET March 2019

Is STP-2 supposed to be before or after ArabSat?

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #448 on: 08/17/2018 12:37 pm »
Is STP-2 supposed to be before or after ArabSat?

It was previously scheduled to be before Arabsat 6A.  Now we don't know.

Online smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #449 on: 08/17/2018 01:08 pm »
Updated FPIP

Offline Alexphysics

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #450 on: 08/17/2018 01:20 pm »
Updated FPIP

Why is the IFA test on December?
« Last Edit: 08/17/2018 01:20 pm by Alexphysics »

Online smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #451 on: 08/17/2018 01:39 pm »
Updated FPIP

Why is the IFA test on December?
Why not?  ;)

It's an example of Disclamer's #1 ("it has a lot of guesswork")
and
the shaded blue stripe (to the right of IFA mark) goes into 2019.

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #452 on: 08/17/2018 01:40 pm »
IFA is around March now.  (I also think Iridium 8 should be towards the end of the year, RCM and Sarah-1 probably don't launch this year.)
« Last Edit: 08/17/2018 01:42 pm by gongora »

Online Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #453 on: 08/17/2018 06:45 pm »
A question mark is not needed
STP-2 is NET March 2019

Is STP-2 supposed to be before or after ArabSat?

Sorry.  I have no idea.
My information was solely about preparations for STP-2.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline ChrisGebhardt

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #454 on: 08/17/2018 08:23 pm »
IFA is around March now.  (I also think Iridium 8 should be towards the end of the year, RCM and Sarah-1 probably don't launch this year.)

Yup.  Kathy Lueders confirmed a week and a half ago that IFA is "about one month before DM-2."   https://spaceflightnow.com/2018/08/09/nasa-signs-off-on-spacexs-load-and-go-procedure-for-crew-launches/

Online smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #455 on: 08/17/2018 09:03 pm »
IFA is around March now.  (I also think Iridium 8 should be towards the end of the year, RCM and Sarah-1 probably don't launch this year.)

Updated FPIP - second try:

Online Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #456 on: 08/21/2018 03:26 pm »
Payload Vehicle engineer for Telstar 18 on Reddit says there is a 5-10 day delay for the launch, may not be in August. Any confirmation for this?

https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/95cte4/telstar_18v_apstar_5c_launch_campaign_thread/e4kgxuw/?context=3
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline OnWithTheShow

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #457 on: 08/21/2018 05:27 pm »
Sounds like it's on the rocket side.
:(
A 24 day gap is no way to hit a 30 launch per year pace, especially when it's followed by a 30 day gap.
SpaceX may be remedying Shotwell's forecasted slowdown in 2019 by having a bunch slip in from 2018.
edit: My list now has 35 launches in 2019.  We shall see.

Cross posting from another thread. Manifest on this thread has 14 payloads for 2019. Even if the rest of this years manifest gets delayed until 2019 thats only 26 payloads.... Where are you getting 35?

Online Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #458 on: 08/22/2018 03:15 am »
Sounds like it's on the rocket side.
 :(
A 24 day gap is no way to hit a 30 launch per year pace, especially when it's followed by a 30 day gap.
SpaceX may be remedying Shotwell's forecasted slowdown in 2019 by having a bunch slip in from 2018.
edit: My list now has 35 launches in 2019.  We shall see.

Cross posting from another thread. Manifest on this thread has 14 payloads for 2019. Even if the rest of this years manifest gets delayed until 2019 thats only 26 payloads.... Where are you getting 35?

You took that from the other version of my post above.
I specifically chose NOT to bring that general discussion of launch pace here.
My list has been compiled since 2004. Most of the sources are from NSF, but may be lost to time.
I prefer to discuss the general launch pace in the General SpaceX discussion or Launch Poll threads.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #459 on: 08/22/2018 04:55 pm »
Big slip. (Telstar 18 Vantage)Now NET September 9 on the Eastern Range (via L2).

Edit: gongora already has that in the first post.
He’s fast!
« Last Edit: 08/23/2018 12:09 am by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

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