SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5

[gongora]

This is odd.  If it is launching from the Cape then it's either the GTO rideshare that Spaceflight has been extremely quiet about (I've been assuming they would start talking about it after the endlessly slipping SSO-A finally launches) or some other GTO mission like PSN VI (which was rumored to have a US government rideshare companion).

[jpo234]

This is odd.  If it is launching from the Cape then it's either the GTO rideshare that Spaceflight has been extremely quiet about (I've been assuming they would start talking about it after the endlessly slipping SSO-A finally launches) or some other GTO mission like PSN VI (which was rumored to have a US government rideshare companion).

On the XPrize link they say:

SpaceIL has purchased launch services from Spaceflight Industries; an American space company who recently purchased a SpaceX Falcon 9 launcher and will manifest SpaceIL’s spacecraft as a co-lead spot, which will sit in a designated capsule inside the launcher, among a cluster of secondary payloads.

[gongora]

This is odd.  If it is launching from the Cape then it's either the GTO rideshare that Spaceflight has been extremely quiet about (I've been assuming they would start talking about it after the endlessly slipping SSO-A finally launches) or some other GTO mission like PSN VI (which was rumored to have a US government rideshare companion).

On the XPrize link they say:

Launch Contract for a 2017 Mission, Using a SpaceX Falcon 9 Launcher via Spaceflight Industries

I wouldn't count on that still being accurate.  It might be, but rideshare payloads move around all the time.

[gongora]

Put any further SpaceIL discussion in this thread for now:
SpaceX : SpaceIL secondary payload : Dec. 2018 : Temporary Thread

[Comga]

Someone in charge of a payload on STP-2 told me that he has been told by the mission that the launch target is now November 30.

[gongora]

Semi-annual-ish manifest archive

Discussion of the manifest, and updates. The best guess at the current manifest is in this post. 

The first four posts in this thread are maintained
1 - Current manifest and some links
2 - Past launches
3 - Smoliarm's graphical manifest
4 - links

Discussion of the table format should be done here: SpaceX Manifest Table Format Discussion
Prior thread: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4

Sites:
      C=Cape Canaveral Spaceport (KSC/CCAFS) (UTC-4 EDT,UTC-5 EST)
            CCAFS SLC-40: Active for Falcon 9
            KSC LC-39A: Active for Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy, will need further work for Commercial Crew
      V=Vandenberg (UTC-7 PDT,UTC-8 PST)
            SLC-4E: Active for Falcon 9
      B=Boca Chica (UTC-5 CDT,UTC-6 CST)
            Site preparation work underway

U.S. daylight saving time starts second Sunday in March, ends first Sunday in November, time changes at 2:00 a.m. local time

Local	LV	Core	Ret-	.	.	Mass	.	Mis-
Est. Date,  Time/UTC	.	S/N	urn	Payload(s)	Orb	(kg)	Site	sion
-------------------	---	------	---	----------------------------	---	-----	-----	----
2018-01-07*2000/-5	F9	1043.1	L	Zuma	LEO	?	C-40	(48)
2018-01-31  1625/-5	F9	1032.2	X	GovSat-1 (SES-16)	GTO	4230	C-40	49
2018-02-06  1545/-5	H	RNR*	LSL	FH Demo/Tesla Roadster	ESC	~1.2k	C-39A	(H1)
2018-02-22  0617/-8	F9	1038.2	X	PAZ & Microsat 2a/2b	SSO	2.2k+	V-4E	50
2018-03-06  0033/-5	F9	1044	X	Hispasat 1F (30W-6)	GTO	6092	C-40	51
2018-03-30  0714/-7	F9	1041.2	X	Iridium NEXT (Flight 5)	PLR	9600	V-4E	52
2018-04-02  1630/-4	F9	1039.2	X	CRS SpX-14	LEO	~10k	C-40	53
2018-04-18  1851/-4	F9	1045.1	S	NASA (TESS)	HEO	325	C-40	54
2018-05-11  1614/-4	F9	1046	S	Bangabandhu-1	GTO	3.7k	C-39A	55
2018-05-22  1248/-7	F9	1043.2	X	Iridium NEXT 6/GRACE-FO	PLR	~6k	V-4E	56
2018-06-04  0045/-4	F9	1040.2	X	SES-12	GTO	5384	C-40	57
2018-06-29  0542/-4	F9	1045.2	X	CRS SpX-15	LEO	~10k	C-40	58
-------------------	---	------	---	----------------------------	---	-----	-----	----
2018-07-22  0150/-4	F9	1047	S	Telstar 19 Vantage	GTO	>5400	C-40	59
2018-07-25  0439/-7	F9	1048	S	Iridium NEXT (Flight 7)	PLR	9600	V-4E	60
2018-08-02  0119/-4	F9	.	S	Merah Putih (Telkom 4)	GTO	>5400	C-40	61
2018-08-17 NET	F9	.	S	Telstar 18 Vantage/Apstar-5C	GTO	>5400	C-40	62
2018-08-end NET	F9	.	S	Es'hail 2	GTO	~3k	C-40	.
2018-09	F9	.	L	SAOCOM 1A	SSO	3100	V-4E	.
2018	F9	1051	?	CCtCap DM1	LEO	.	C-39A	.
2018-10	F9	N	S	Iridium NEXT (Flight 8)	PLR	9600	V-4E	.
2018-10 (NET)	F9	N	.	USAF GPS III-1	MEO	3880	C	.
2018-10 (NET)	F9	.	.	Spaceflight SSO-A	SSO	~3k	V-4E	.
2018-11	F9	R	.	RADARSAT Constellation	SSO	~1.5k	V-4E	.
2018-11	H	N	LSL	STP-2 (US Air Force)	MEO	~8k?	C-39A	H2
2018-11	F9	.	L	CRS SpX-16	LEO	~10k	C	.
2018 (NET)	F9	.	?	PSN VI (and co-passenger?)	GTO	5000	C	.
2018 (NET)	F9	.	.	SARah 1	SSO	~2200	V-4E	.
2018-2019	F9	.	.	CCiCap In-Flight Abort Test	SUB	.	C	N/A
2019-01	H	.	.	Arabsat 6A	GTO	~6k	C-39A	H3
2019?	F9	.	.	Spaceflight GTO (unconfirmed)	GTO	.	C	(70)
2019	F9	N	.	CCtCap DM2 (Crew)	LEO	.	C-39A	.
2019-03	F9	.	L	CRS SpX-17	LEO	~10k	C	.
2019-02	F9	N	.	USAF GPS III-2	MEO	3880	C	.
2019	F9	.	.	GiSat-1	GTO	~6k	C	.
2019-05	F9	.	L	CRS SpX-18	LEO	~10k	C	.
2019-Q2	F9	R	.	AMOS-17	GTO	5500	C	.
2019	F9	.	.	SAOCOM 1B and companions	SSO	~3-4k	V-4E	.
2019	F9	.	.	SARah 2/3	SSO	~3600	V-4E	.
2019-H2	F9	.	.	JCSAT-18/Kacific-1	GTO	~6k+	C	.
2019	F9	.	.	SiriusXM SXM-7	GTO	>5400	C	(80)
2019-10	F9	.	.	CRS SpX-19	LEO	~10k	C	.
2019-12 (NET)	F9	.	.	USAF GPS III-4	MEO	3880	C	(100)
2020-01	F9	.	.	CRS SpX-20	LEO	~10k	C	.
2020	F9	.	.	SiriusXM SXM-8	GTO	>5400	C	(80)
2020	F9	.	.	Türksat 5A	GTO	3500	C	.
2020	F9	.	.	CRS2 SpX-21	LEO	~10k	C	.
2020-H2	F9	.	.	AMOS-8	GTO	.	C	.
2020-09	H	N	.	AFSPC-52	GTO	.	C-39A	.
2020-11	F9	.	.	Sentinel-6 (Jason-CS)	LEO	1440	V-4E	.
2020	F9	.	.	CRS2 SpX-22	LEO	~10k	C	.
2020	F9	.	.	Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter	?	550	C	(82)
2020	F9	.	.	USAF GPS III-5	MEO	3880	C	(100)
2020	F9	.	.	USAF GPS III-6	MEO	3880	C	(100)
2020-2021	H	.	.	ViaSat 3-Americas or 3-EMEA	GTO	6400	C	(85)
2021	F9	.	.	Türksat 5B	GTO	4500	C	.
2021-04	F9	.	.	SWOT	LEO	2000	V-4E	.
2021	F9	R	.	WorldView Legion (flight 1)	LEO	.	.	.
2021	F9	R	.	WorldView Legion (flight 2)	LEO	.	.	.
2022 (NET)	BFR	.	.	Mars	TMI	.	?	.
TBD (2019-2024)	F9	.	.	Commercial Crew (6 flights)	LEO	.	C-39A	.
TBD (2021-2024)	F9	.	.	CRS-2 (4+ flights)	LEO	.	C	.

Companies that appear to have contracts for unspecified payloads: Eutelsat, Inmarsat (x2?), Bigelow

Date: *=Local date differs from UTC date
Return: L=Land,S=Sea,X=Expendable,N/A=Not Applicable
Launch Vehicle: F9=Falcon 9, H=Falcon Heavy, F=Falcon 9 or Heavy
Core: *=FH core numbers in footnotes, N=New, R=Reused
Mission: Blue number indicates additional information in footnotes.
Colors: Successful / Unsuccessful / Mars!!!! / Footnotes / Mission failure may not be SpaceX's fault

NOTES:
(48) Zuma - Reportedly suffered payload separation failure, not confirmed by unknown customer
(H1) FH Demo - Serial Numbers:  Side1:1023.2  Center:1033  Side2: 1025.2
(70) Spaceflight Industries : Upcoming Spaceflight Ind. schedule update
(80) Sirius SXM-7, SXM-8 : SSL Contract Press Release / Gunter
(82) Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter : Post
(85) Viasat 3 : one of first two Viasat 3 birds in mid-2019 or early-2020.  Also third Viasat 3 if it gets built?
  ViaSatellite 2/10/16 SpaceNews 2/10/2016 Gunter
(100) GPS III - Three flights (one ordered and two options)

Possible future payloads:

Competitions for future payloads:
Air Force - EELV, Phase 1A Summary

L2 notes on manifest:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44432.msg1758806#msg1758806

Upcoming Mars Launch Windows: 2020-06, 2022-08, 2024-09, 2026-11, 2029-01

SpaceX Mission Paperwork / Raul's Map
L2 SpaceX CRS External Cargo
L2 Level SpaceX Falcon 9 Stage Watch / Public Core Spotting
SpaceX Launch Log (past launches) / Wikipedia Falcon Launches
Viewing flights from Vandenberg / Ben Cooper's Viewing Guide for Cape Canaveral / Viewing Flights from KSC/CCAFS
Upcoming SpaceX Talks / General Industry Talks
SpaceX Falcon Mission Simulations
SpaceX Eastern Range Landing Facilities
NSF Manifest Threads: U.S. / Russian / Arianespace / Japanese / Chinese / Indian / Consolidated
Commercial Space Index Thread

Recent Edits:
June 30  Removed some of the speculative Spaceflight rideshares until we get more info they really exist.
June 29  Updated the next few East Coast launches based on Ben Cooper's site.
June 21  Adding AFSPC-52
May 16  SES-12 moved to NET May 31.  GPS III-01 moved to NET October.
May 9  Moved STP-2 to NET October
May 8  Iridium 7 moved to NET July 9.  PSN VI moved to 2019
Apr 18  Telstar 18V in July
Apr 15  Moved STP-2 a little later in the year
Apr 11  Changed Bangabandhu-1 from April 24 to May 4
Apr 9  Moved Iridium 6 to May 19.  Moved SAOCOM 1A to September
Apr 4  Changed CRS-15 to June 28.


All comments and updates are welcomed!  Thank you to all contributors!

[smoliarm]

Updated FPIP:

============
08/03/2018 edit:
We now have updated info on demo missions of Dragon and Starliner - guess this calls for another update to my chart.

Go Starliner, Go Dragon!
============

Added the third graph - corrected per Comga's comment and with minor changes for Telstar & Es'hail

[Comga]

Updated FPIP:

============
08/03/2018 edit:
We now have updated info on demo missions of Dragon and Starliner - guess this calls for another update to my chart.

Go Starliner, Go Dragon!

The second "Something's going on here" block for KSC LC39A could be shortened by two months.

We have been told that SpaceX DM-1 should be ready to fly by the end of this month (THIS MONTH!) but will wait until November based on the ISS Visiting Vehicle schedule and other ISS considerations.

edit: Unless busy times at the ISS fall under the "something" rubric despite not being specific to LC-39A.

PS  Nice chart!

[Robotbeat]

Updated FPIP:

============
08/03/2018 edit:
We now have updated info on demo missions of Dragon and Starliner - guess this calls for another update to my chart.

Go Starliner, Go Dragon!

The second "Something's going on here"...

...I don't understand what you're talking about.

[Comga]

Updated FPIP:

============
08/03/2018 edit:
We now have updated info on demo missions of Dragon and Starliner - guess this calls for another update to my chart.

Go Starliner, Go Dragon!

The second "Something's going on here"...

...I don't understand what you're talking about.

The FPIP has two blocks in the long gaps between launches from LC-39A, where smoliarm supposes that something must be occupying the launch complex and preventing launches.  They say "Something's going on here..."

On the other hand, while his note is on the LC-39A line, it doesn't have to be specifically about that launch pad, so perhaps it remains valid.

[Nehkara]

Manifest updates on the subreddit now list:



https://www.reddit.com/r/SpaceX/wiki/launches/manifest

Any idea why SpaceX has apparently mostly cleared the decks for September and October?

No launches from Florida from August 24 until November.

Iridium-8 is December.

9 missions between November and December.

Seems really odd.

[scr00chy]

Manifest updates on the subreddit now list:



https://www.reddit.com/r/SpaceX/wiki/launches/manifest

Any idea why SpaceX has apparently mostly cleared the decks for September and October?

No launches from Florida from August 24 until November.

Iridium-8 is December.

9 missions between November and December.

Seems really odd.

Not sure about the Florida gap (maybe lack of available boosters?) but I suspect the December date for Iridium is based on the assumption that SSO-A will fly after SAOCOM and there is generally at least a month between VAFB launches. But I don't know if we can confidently say which mission will launch after SAOCOM.

I guess one clue is that the most recent FCC license apparently doesn't have the number expected for an Iridium mission, suggesting it's for SSO-A (or maybe Radarsat?).

[niwax]

Any idea why SpaceX has apparently mostly cleared the decks for September and October?

No launches from Florida from August 24 until November.

Iridium-8 is December.

9 missions between November and December.

Seems really odd.

Has there been any indication of initial Starlink deployment? Otherwise they are still holding their scheduled 24 launches for this year. Remember that Es'hail 2 and DM-1 were not moved due to range or rocket availability.

[Nehkara]

Any idea why SpaceX has apparently mostly cleared the decks for September and October?

No launches from Florida from August 24 until November.

Iridium-8 is December.

9 missions between November and December.

Seems really odd.

Has there been any indication of initial Starlink deployment? Otherwise they are still holding their scheduled 24 launches for this year. Remember that Es'hail 2 and DM-1 were not moved due to range or rocket availability.

Starlink is a ways out.  End of 2019 or 2020 before initial deployment seems to be the target.

[codav]

9 missions between November and December.

Seems really odd.

IMHO, some launches could very well slip into 2019, clearing up the congestion a little bit.

Otherwise, if you look at the launch-to-pad distribution, no pad hosts more than two launches per month if the manifest holds. Both SLC-40 and LC-39A have a quick turnaround time of less than two weeks, SLC-4E requires about three weeks for refurbishment, except SpaceX has improved on that recently and we just don't know about it because the west coast cadence was not high enough yet.

With the recently landed Block 5 boosters, rocket availability isn't a concern anymore. Range availability, ISS schedule and payload readiness now seem to be the prevalent factors of delayed launch dates.

[cscott]

There's also some pad work necessary for crew dragon, including the crew access arm.  That could account for the long time between LC39A flights.  And there's a plausible argument that Vandenberg just doesn't turnaround quickly yet.  So it's the gap in LC40 flights which is most puzzling.

[gongora]

Manifest updates on the subreddit now list:

That seems to match most of our current information.  Some of those haven't officially slipped to December yet but it's the most reasonable guess right now.  I'll need to make a pass over our manifest soon and tweak some dates.

There aren't any obvious payloads to launch from the East Coast after Telstar 18V.  I think they may actually be caught up on launches from the Cape after this month.  On the West Coast I think they'll probably end the year a little behind (maybe only one payload?).  It doesn't seem likely that they'll launch more than 3 from Vandenberg the rest of this year.

There is great uncertainty in several of the launches from Florida the rest of the year (GPS, DM-1, STP-2).  Wouldn't be surprised if one or more of those slipped a bit.

[gongora]

Further general discussion of the current SpaceX flight rate should move to
   POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
or
   General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 14)

(In case that wasn't clear, further replies to the last half-dozen posts should move to one of those threads or they may be at risk of disappearing.)

[Comga]

Manifest updates on the subreddit now list:

That seems to match most of our current information.  Some of those haven't officially slipped to December yet but it's the most reasonable guess right now.  I'll need to make a pass over our manifest soon and tweak some dates.

There aren't any obvious payloads to launch from the East Coast after Telstar 18V.  I think they may actually be caught up on launches from the Cape after this month.  On the West Coast I think they'll probably end the year a little behind (maybe only one payload?).  It doesn't seem likely that they'll launch more than 3 from Vandenberg the rest of this year.

There is great uncertainty in several of the launches from Florida the rest of the year (GPS, DM-1, STP-2).  Wouldn't be surprised if one or more of those slipped a bit.

The surprise will be how far STP-2 slides right, past the end of the year, to March.
Considering DM-1 is supposed to be in December, DM-2 in April, with the Launch Abort test between them, that still seems wedged in, but its what I was told.

[Orbiter]

Manifest updates on the subreddit now list:

That seems to match most of our current information.  Some of those haven't officially slipped to December yet but it's the most reasonable guess right now.  I'll need to make a pass over our manifest soon and tweak some dates.

There aren't any obvious payloads to launch from the East Coast after Telstar 18V.  I think they may actually be caught up on launches from the Cape after this month.  On the West Coast I think they'll probably end the year a little behind (maybe only one payload?).  It doesn't seem likely that they'll launch more than 3 from Vandenberg the rest of this year.

There is great uncertainty in several of the launches from Florida the rest of the year (GPS, DM-1, STP-2).  Wouldn't be surprised if one or more of those slipped a bit.

The surprise will be how far STP-2 slides right, past the end of the year, to March.
Considering DM-1 is supposed to be in December, DM-2 in April, with the Launch Abort test between them, that still seems wedged in, but its what I was told.

DM-1 is November, not December.