Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5 (Read 1037098 times)

Comga · « **Reply #380 on:** 05/11/2018 05:21 pm »

Cadence, China, etc.: Please see Lar's post three back

Bubbinski · « **Reply #381 on:** 05/11/2018 10:42 pm »

Now that Bangabandhu has successfully launched, what’s the next Block 5 flight on the manifest?

vaporcobra · « **Reply #382 on:** 05/11/2018 10:44 pm »

Quote from: Bubbinski on 05/11/2018 10:42 pm

Now that Bangabandhu has successfully launched, what’s the next Block 5 flight on the manifest?

Put simply, unknown.

gongora · « **Reply #383 on:** 05/11/2018 10:51 pm »

Quote from: Bubbinski on 05/11/2018 10:42 pm

Now that Bangabandhu has successfully launched, what’s the next Block 5 flight on the manifest?

Most likely Telstar 19V

MATTBLAK · « **Reply #384 on:** 05/11/2018 10:53 pm »

How many Block III & IV's are left for use?

gongora · « **Reply #385 on:** 05/11/2018 10:57 pm »

Quote from: MATTBLAK on 05/11/2018 10:53 pm

How many Block III & IV's are left for use?

3-4 Block 4's, and three of them should fly in the next 2 months.

AbuSimbel · « **Reply #386 on:** 05/11/2018 10:58 pm »

Quote from: MATTBLAK on 05/11/2018 10:53 pm

How many Block III & IV's are left for use?

0 Block 3s, 3 (+ 1) Block 4s off the top of my mind.

Edit: checked 3 +1 block 4. (+1 because its fate is still unknown)

MATTBLAK · « **Reply #387 on:** 05/11/2018 11:00 pm »

And this is what's left out of the 24x landed stages, yes? I've been trying to get my head round all the quantities of this and that.

vaporcobra · « **Reply #388 on:** 05/11/2018 11:15 pm »

Quote from: MATTBLAK on 05/11/2018 11:00 pm

And this is what's left out of the 24x landed stages, yes? I've been trying to get my head round all the quantities of this and that.

Flightworthy, yes. I believe four Block 4s is correct - one for SES-12, Iridium-6, (likely) Dragon 2's launch abort, and then 1045 for CRS-15. There are at least several other mothballed Block 3 and 4 cores, but it still is pretty shocking how rapidly SpaceX has slimmed down its fleet.

gongora · « **Reply #389 on:** 05/12/2018 12:30 am »

Further discussion on reuse/fleets/etc moved to the General Falcon Discussion thread.

gongora · « **Reply #390 on:** 05/12/2018 11:00 pm »

Ben Cooper's list of upcoming flights has gotten a few tweaks:

Quote

The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral will launch the SES-12 communication satellite
on end of May TBD at the earliest at about 12:29am EDT. The launch window stretches to about
1:27am EDT. The next launch after that is TBD: A Falcon 9 will launch the Telstar 19 communication
satellite, from pad 40, on late June at the earliest. A Falcon 9 from pad 40 will launch the next
Dragon resupply mission to the ISS on June 28 at the earliest, at 6:03am EDT if that day. Sunrise
is 6:27am EDT. The launch window is instantaneous. The launch time gets 22-26 minutes earlier per
day. A Falcon 9 will launch Telstar 18 from pad 40 in mid July TBD. A Falcon 9 will launch the
Telkom 4 communication satellite from pad 40 for Indonesia on late July TBD. And a Falcon 9 will
launch the Es'hail-2 communication satellite in mid-August TBD

It looks like some slight slips of the next couple flights could happen but SpaceX could still be completely caught up on their East Coast F9 manifest by the end of the third quarter, which would be a huge accomplishment considering what their manifest looked like at the beginning of 2017.

AncientU · « **Reply #391 on:** 05/14/2018 11:21 am »

Cross-posting:

Quote from: AncientU on 05/14/2018 11:17 am

Here is the clarification of that 300 launches quote:
Quote
SpaceX will prob build 30 to 40 rocket cores for ~300 missions over 5 years. Then BFR takes over & Falcon retires. Goal of BFR is to enable anyone to move to moon, Mars & eventually outer planets.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/995462943079723008

Lots of wiggle room there for BFR arriving a bit late -- something like a factor of 10 more flights available from 'the fleet' than required. 300 flights in five years... hhhmmmmmm. Must include the constellation finally.

Is this sufficient documentation to begin listing constellation flights?

smoliarm · « **Reply #392 on:** 05/14/2018 12:59 pm »

Here is an updated FPIP.
One of "pale-green box" with unclear flights is gone, thanks to Ben Cooper

Of course, there is still a lot of guesswork in the chart, especially for its right part,
but -
it is the FIRST time when I have *some references on scheduling* for FULL THREE months in advance AND for nine launches in the row.
Well, last year the picture was very different

Go SpaceX !

PS: Also, I marked the three flights with block 4 boosters (green arrows).
One more block 4 core is available (B1042; Oct 30, 2017; KoreaSat 5A).

gongora · « **Reply #393 on:** 05/14/2018 01:32 pm »

Quote from: AncientU on 05/14/2018 11:21 am

Is this sufficient documentation to begin listing constellation flights?

No

wannamoonbase · « **Reply #394 on:** 05/14/2018 01:46 pm »

Anyone else expect a schedule lag as the Block 4's are consumed and the Block 5's ramp up?

I think they'll launch more this year than last year, but that they could have a slow down in Jul, Aug, Sep as the Block 5's fly and make their second and third flights as they thoroughly learn how to fly their new toys.

rockets4life97 · « **Reply #395 on:** 05/14/2018 02:09 pm »

Quote from: smoliarm on 05/14/2018 12:59 pm

Here is an updated FPIP.

I'm struck by the lack of commercial GTO satellites expected to fly in the last quarter of the year.

gongora · « **Reply #396 on:** 05/14/2018 03:19 pm »

Quote from: wannamoonbase on 05/14/2018 01:46 pm

Anyone else expect a schedule lag as the Block 4's are consumed and the Block 5's ramp up?

I think they'll launch more this year than last year, but that they could have a slow down in Jul, Aug, Sep as the Block 5's fly and make their second and third flights as they thoroughly learn how to fly their new toys.

I created a place for further discussion about this: [Poll] How Many New Block 5 Boosters Will Fly In 2018?

Quote from: rockets4life97 on 05/14/2018 02:09 pm

I'm struck by the lack of commercial GTO satellites expected to fly in the last quarter of the year.

Well, some could always slip... The GTO launch rate has to start slowing down next year since the order rate of new GTO sats has dropped over the past couple years, and SpaceX isn't going to get all of the launches.

For those who haven't noticed already, Iridum 6 slipped at least two days to the 21st, and Iridium flights will now finish by the end of the third quarter.

gongora · « **Reply #397 on:** 05/22/2018 07:03 pm »

Quote from: gongora on 05/22/2018 06:55 pm

Finally realistic launch numbers: 24-28 this year, ~18 in 2019. ~14 first stages built this year, ~30 second stages.

Discussion of this should probably be in other threads, just copying it here for those who have been wondering why there aren't 40 payloads listed for 2019.

AncientU · « **Reply #398 on:** 05/24/2018 01:48 pm »

Quote

ICEYE is aiming for a total of 9 upcoming satellite launches by the end of 2019 and is actively seeking out launch operators to continue the company’s rapid acceleration towards the future.

One prototype (#2) is co-manifested on F-9. Others: #1 launched on PSLV. #3 scheduled for Electron.
Not an award, but a distinct possibility due to 2019 launches.

FutureSpaceTourist · « **Reply #399 on:** 05/28/2018 07:25 pm »

Quote

Hello @IridiumBoss! Is there already any NET date for the Iridium-7 launch?

https://twitter.com/elthiryel/status/1001120220625408001

Quote

No, haven't provided a specific date , but iI'm expecting it in about mid to late July.

https://twitter.com/iridiumboss/status/1001144325521231872

Edit: saw this on twitter & posted before I saw post here