Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5  (Read 255075 times)

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #360 on: 04/20/2018 07:23 AM »
Not a surprise but good to know still on track, even if next launch has slipped to Q3:

Quote
SpaceX's Shotwell: Expect a 'couple more' Falcon Heavy launches this year
EMRE KELLY  |  FLORIDA TODAY Updated 3 hours ago

https://www.floridatoday.com/story/tech/science/space/2018/04/19/spacex-shotwell-expect-couple-more-falcon-heavy-launches-year/535071002/

Online smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #361 on: 04/20/2018 09:14 AM »
And one more chart - launch cadence comparison.

... I wonder if Block 5 and the demands of Starlink will push it much higher?

Well, my guess is that the gain in tempo which we see this year is mostly because of the reused boosters.
Therefore, yes - theoretically, block 5 will (should) allow higher launch cadence.
Or at least, block 5 will make them closer to "launch on demand" scheme.
However, in reality I would expect no increase in launch tempo next year, just because it seems SpaceX don't have enough orders for that.
Also, I'd expect a bit lower launch rate in the second half of this year - due to Dragon v2 and STP missions.
AIUI, these launches are very demanding in both resources and manpower.

Offline Lar

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #362 on: 04/20/2018 04:39 PM »
I am fairly sure we will see some Starlink test flights in 2019 if only to test the full scale dispenser.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
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Offline AncientU

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #363 on: 04/20/2018 09:10 PM »
The 30-40 launches per year stated by GS indicates/allows another 50% increase next year (24ish --> 36ish). 

I also expect the Starlink launches to start next year, but not with test satellites; early generation satellites will be less capable, but getting started on working out the complexities of coordinated constellation operations should push the first batch out asap... from existing Seattle facilities, in a mostly hand-assembled production line.

The following year, 2020, should see a significant bump due to these deployments, but don't think we'll have much information or lead time in advance of actual launches.
« Last Edit: 04/20/2018 09:21 PM by AncientU »
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Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #364 on: 04/20/2018 09:20 PM »
The 30-40 launches per year stated by GS indicates/allows another 50% increase next year. 

I also expect the Starlink launches to start next year, but not with test satellites; early generation satellites will be less capable, but getting started on working out the complexities of coordinated constellation operations should push the first batch out asap... from existing Seattle facilities, in a mostly hand-assembled production line.

The following year, 2020, should see a significant bump due to these deployments, but don't think we'll have much information or lead time in advance of actual launches.

If SpaceX hits 25 launches this year they will eat up alot of their manifest.  They don't really need to go higher than 25 until there is more demand.  Starlink creates their own demand.  30 launches next year could give them 5-6 star link launches.

If they are recovering fairings by that time then their deployment costs will be very enviable.
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Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #365 on: 04/20/2018 09:27 PM »
I am fairly sure we will see some Starlink test flights in 2019 if only to test the full scale dispenser.

You didn't restart this diversion Lar, but isn't this thread about the schedule of specific missions, rather than general discussions of launch cadence and hypothetical missions? 
The policy was to put missions on this Manifest when they are announced, either by a satellite provider or SpaceX, such as when Musk announced the beyond-the-moon tourist flight and the Red Dragon landings.
In accordance with this criterion, Starlink, for one, is not on the manifest, but "Mars" in 2022 is. 
There are threads specifically for launch cadence and backlog.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline vaporcobra

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #366 on: 04/20/2018 09:32 PM »
I am fairly sure we will see some Starlink test flights in 2019 if only to test the full scale dispenser.

As of summer 2017, the public plan from Patricia Cooper was real launches beginning in 2019. It's pretty clear that dedicated launches wont happen until Block 5 is proven out as a highly reusable vehicle, but that could potentially be as soon as later this year :D

Offline DaveJes1979

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #367 on: 04/24/2018 08:33 PM »
Looking at the current manifest, there are not any obvious good candidates for RTLS missions from Vandenberg.  Iridium seems to be sticking to expendable shots.  And supposedly there are prohibitions until June or July on account of  disturbances to seals.

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #368 on: 04/24/2018 08:39 PM »
Looking at the current manifest, there are not any obvious good candidates for RTLS missions from Vandenberg.  Iridium seems to be sticking to expendable shots.  And supposedly there are prohibitions until June or July on account of  disturbances to seals.

Iridium 7 and 8 shouldn't be expendable, probably ASDS.  There are a number of other missions coming up on the West Coast and most of them will be less than half the mass of an Iridium mission (not sure how much mass the Spaceflight rideshares will end up with.)

Online Michael Baylor

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #369 on: 04/28/2018 04:46 AM »
Looking at the current manifest, there are not any obvious good candidates for RTLS missions from Vandenberg.  Iridium seems to be sticking to expendable shots.  And supposedly there are prohibitions until June or July on account of  disturbances to seals.
Both SAOCOM launches are pretty obvious candidates. Those won't be until later in the year though.
« Last Edit: 04/28/2018 04:47 AM by Michael Baylor »

Offline vaporcobra

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #370 on: 04/28/2018 05:00 AM »
FWIW, JRTI now has two thrusters installed and two more onboard. Should be ready to return to action fairly soon.

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #371 on: 05/08/2018 05:37 PM »
Iridium 7 is NET July 9 with ASDS landing per the FCC STA requests for launch communications and stage recovery filed today.

Offline Lar

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #372 on: 05/08/2018 10:35 PM »
I am fairly sure we will see some Starlink test flights in 2019 if only to test the full scale dispenser.

You didn't restart this diversion Lar, but isn't this thread about the schedule of specific missions, rather than general discussions of launch cadence and hypothetical missions? 
The policy was to put missions on this Manifest when they are announced, either by a satellite provider or SpaceX, such as when Musk announced the beyond-the-moon tourist flight and the Red Dragon landings.
In accordance with this criterion, Starlink, for one, is not on the manifest, but "Mars" in 2022 is. 
There are threads specifically for launch cadence and backlog.

Correct. Cadence, Starlink, even JRTI thruster status, off topic.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #373 on: 05/10/2018 06:44 PM »
Elon: On track to double launch rate this year from last year.

If all goes to plan this year, SpaceX will launch more missions than any other country this year.

[...]

Hmm, double would be 36 and China may do 40 launches this year. So is Elon ‘rounding up’ or are we missing some launches on the manifest? The former seems more likely to me.

Online smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #374 on: 05/11/2018 09:56 AM »
Elon: On track to double launch rate this year from last year.

If all goes to plan this year, SpaceX will launch more missions than any other country this year.

[...]

Hmm, double would be 36 and China may do 40 launches this year. So is Elon ‘rounding up’ or are we missing some launches on the manifest? The former seems more likely to me.

Well, IIRC, recently Gwynne said they plan to do 26 to 30 launches this year. On other occasion she noted they are going to make "about 50% more launches" than in 2017. Which is consistent with the first one (18*1.5 = 27).
So basically we have here a good example of scale coefficient for conversion of "Elon's numbers" into "Gwynne's":
Her 50% equal to "double" in Elon's scale.

And with respect to China -
I doubt that Elon keeps close attention on Chinese launch plans. Last year China launched 18 times, in 2016 they did 22 launches... So my guess, Elon just assumes something similar for this year too.

Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #375 on: 05/11/2018 05:21 PM »
Cadence, China, etc.: Please see Lar's post three back
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Bubbinski

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #376 on: 05/11/2018 10:42 PM »
Now that Bangabandhu has successfully launched, what’s the next Block 5 flight on the manifest?
I'll even excitedly look forward to "flags and footprints" and suborbital missions. Just fly...somewhere.

Offline vaporcobra

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #377 on: 05/11/2018 10:44 PM »
Now that Bangabandhu has successfully launched, what’s the next Block 5 flight on the manifest?

Put simply, unknown.

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #378 on: 05/11/2018 10:51 PM »
Now that Bangabandhu has successfully launched, what’s the next Block 5 flight on the manifest?

Most likely Telstar 19V

Offline MATTBLAK

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #379 on: 05/11/2018 10:53 PM »
How many Block III & IV's are left for use?
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