SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5

[deruch]

There is a new SMSR Near-Term schedule, dated February,7, available. But I have no access from my location. Maybe some from the US can provide this.

I've been trying to look at that for a few days now, the file isn't available in the U.S. either.

I think our (and other sites') highlighting the availability of those resources may have resulted in their firewalling.    

The best we may get in the future is just the Review schedule dates, which are listed above the .pdf download links on the site.  Those reviews seem to be taking place about a month before launches.

[Craig_VG]

STP-2 is scheduled for a window from April until June and Arabsat is confirmed to be second launching Falcon Heavy, according to NASA's budget released today (Page 537).

[gongora]

STP-2 is scheduled for a window from April until June and Arabsat is confirmed to be second launching Falcon Heavy, according to NASA's budget released today (Page 537).

So Arabsat around May and STP-2 around August?

[Craig_VG]

STP-2 is scheduled for a window from April until June and Arabsat is confirmed to be second launching Falcon Heavy, according to NASA's budget released today (Page 537).

So Arabsat around May and STP-2 around August?

Exactly

[Lar]

you guys!!!! ....

At least your slips are measured in months instead of years now.

[gongora]

There were slips announced today varying from one day (PAZ) to almost a month (TESS) for what we expected to be the next 4 SpaceX flights.  Check the top post in the thread for the updated list.

[smoliarm]

Since we have finally some info about next two FH flights -
Here is an update for "SpaceX FPIP".
Although there is a lot of guesses even for the schedule of next months...

[AncientU]

New article:

SpaceX 's next salvo in the space wars: Launching test satellites to bring the Web to billions

SpaceX is valued around $21.5 billion and has received at least $1 billion in investment from Google-parent Alphabet , as well as Fidelity. The company says it has over 100 missions on its upcoming launch manifest that are worth more than $12 billion in contracts.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/spacex-apos-next-salvo-space-161700220.html

Current tabulation at top of this thread shows about 63 launches... missing one third to one half of their manifest somehow.

Also other interesting data in the article for other threads.

[gongora]

Current tabulation at top of this thread shows about 63 launches... missing one third to one half of their manifest somehow.

I've never seen that claim of >100 flights in the manifest before.  Maybe that includes Starlink flights?  I don't see where else the other >35 flights would be coming from.

[jpo234]

Current tabulation at top of this thread shows about 63 launches... missing one third to one half of their manifest somehow.

I've never seen that claim of >100 flights in the manifest before.  Maybe that includes Starlink flights?  I don't see where else the other >35 flights would be coming from.

Hans (?) gave us the$12bn number. Can we calculate back from this? 12*10^9 / 100*10^6 = 120. This rough approximation supports more than 100 open flights.

[AncientU]

Current tabulation at top of this thread shows about 63 launches... missing one third to one half of their manifest somehow.

I've never seen that claim of >100 flights in the manifest before.  Maybe that includes Starlink flights?  I don't see where else the other >35 flights would be coming from.

That would be my guess, unless they are also hiding a compete class of launches such as tourist flights.  Could there also be a set of flights on the NSS side for an early constellation that is still dark?

[AncientU]

Telesat has a 120-140 sat constellation that is on the verge of being built. 
Haven't announced who is building or launching... starts in 2020.

Telesat to announce manufacturing plans for LEO constellation in coming months

http://spacenews.com/telesat-to-announce-manufacturing-plans-for-leo-constellation-in-coming-months/?utm_content=buffer04cee&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

No connection at all with Spacex AFAIK, but accounts for a batch of launches that aren't yet shown on any manifest.

[rockets4life97]

Current tabulation at top of this thread shows about 63 launches... missing one third to one half of their manifest somehow.

I've never seen that claim of >100 flights in the manifest before.  Maybe that includes Starlink flights?  I don't see where else the other >35 flights would be coming from.

Would their be a reason for the big GTO satellite operators (I'm thinking of SES, Eutelsat, Intelsat, etc.) to keep quiet on recent satellite orders and subsequent launch vehicle contracts? I've seen it repeated that the GTO sat market is down, but I don't remember many press releases in 2017 for satellites ordered. Surely there were a number that didn't make it into the news?

[gongora]

Current tabulation at top of this thread shows about 63 launches... missing one third to one half of their manifest somehow.

I've never seen that claim of >100 flights in the manifest before.  Maybe that includes Starlink flights?  I don't see where else the other >35 flights would be coming from.

Would their be a reason for the big GTO satellite operators (I'm thinking of SES, Eutelsat, Intelsat, etc.) to keep quiet on recent satellite orders and subsequent launch vehicle contracts? I've seen it repeated that the GTO sat market is down, but I don't remember many press releases in 2017 for satellites ordered. Surely there were a number that didn't make it into the news?

No.

If you added up every real (actually contracted) payload in the world that doesn't have an announced ride, and then added in all the government birds up for bid right now (which can't all go to SpaceX), you still wouldn't get anywhere near that number.  And these are supposed to be things actually on the manifest already.  I don't see any way to get there without including Starlink flights.

[rockets4life97]

Current tabulation at top of this thread shows about 63 launches... missing one third to one half of their manifest somehow.

I've never seen that claim of >100 flights in the manifest before.  Maybe that includes Starlink flights?  I don't see where else the other >35 flights would be coming from.

Would their be a reason for the big GTO satellite operators (I'm thinking of SES, Eutelsat, Intelsat, etc.) to keep quiet on recent satellite orders and subsequent launch vehicle contracts? I've seen it repeated that the GTO sat market is down, but I don't remember many press releases in 2017 for satellites ordered. Surely there were a number that didn't make it into the news?

No.

If you added up every real (actually contracted) payload in the world that doesn't have an announced ride, and then added in all the government birds up for bid right now (which can't all go to SpaceX), you still wouldn't get anywhere near that number.  And these are supposed to be things actually on the manifest already.  I don't see any way to get there without including Starlink flights.

So, what would you say?
5-10 other commercial/government launches?
50 Starlink launches?

Edit: According to Gunter's Space Page's "Recently awarded GEO-Sat Contracts" list, there are by my count 12 commercial satellites that have been ordered without confirmed launch vehicles:
* DirecTV 16
* KMiSatCom 1
* SatKomHan 1
* ViaSat Americas and ViaSat EMEA
* Inmarsat-6 F1 and F2
* Arabsat 6D
* ETS 9 (Kiku 9)
* Jupiter 3/EchoStar 24
* Palapa N1 (Nasantara 1)
* Techo 1

[deruch]

Current tabulation at top of this thread shows about 63 launches... missing one third to one half of their manifest somehow.

I've never seen that claim of >100 flights in the manifest before.  Maybe that includes Starlink flights?  I don't see where else the other >35 flights would be coming from.

Would their be a reason for the big GTO satellite operators (I'm thinking of SES, Eutelsat, Intelsat, etc.) to keep quiet on recent satellite orders and subsequent launch vehicle contracts? I've seen it repeated that the GTO sat market is down, but I don't remember many press releases in 2017 for satellites ordered. Surely there were a number that didn't make it into the news?

No.

If you added up every real (actually contracted) payload in the world that doesn't have an announced ride, and then added in all the government birds up for bid right now (which can't all go to SpaceX), you still wouldn't get anywhere near that number.  And these are supposed to be things actually on the manifest already.  I don't see any way to get there without including Starlink flights.

I think he just divided the $12 Billion by SpaceX's launch prices.  Adjusting for Dragon, NSS, FH, etc. raises the average price of their manifest well above the 62M/launch for an F9 and makes >100 launches a reasonable estimate of their total manifest.  Especially if they also combine that with the knowledge that SpaceX will be launching their own sats for the constellation. etc.

[macpacheco]

Current tabulation at top of this thread shows about 63 launches... missing one third to one half of their manifest somehow.

I've never seen that claim of >100 flights in the manifest before.  Maybe that includes Starlink flights?  I don't see where else the other >35 flights would be coming from.

Would their be a reason for the big GTO satellite operators (I'm thinking of SES, Eutelsat, Intelsat, etc.) to keep quiet on recent satellite orders and subsequent launch vehicle contracts? I've seen it repeated that the GTO sat market is down, but I don't remember many press releases in 2017 for satellites ordered. Surely there were a number that didn't make it into the news?

Let's not forget natl security launches which were only announced a few months prior. Some are that secret...
And although not common, customers can ask for secrecy too.
Probably not even 20% of the balance though.

[AncientU]

Current tabulation at top of this thread shows about 63 launches... missing one third to one half of their manifest somehow.

I've never seen that claim of >100 flights in the manifest before.  Maybe that includes Starlink flights?  I don't see where else the other >35 flights would be coming from.

Would their be a reason for the big GTO satellite operators (I'm thinking of SES, Eutelsat, Intelsat, etc.) to keep quiet on recent satellite orders and subsequent launch vehicle contracts? I've seen it repeated that the GTO sat market is down, but I don't remember many press releases in 2017 for satellites ordered. Surely there were a number that didn't make it into the news?

No.

If you added up every real (actually contracted) payload in the world that doesn't have an announced ride, and then added in all the government birds up for bid right now (which can't all go to SpaceX), you still wouldn't get anywhere near that number.  And these are supposed to be things actually on the manifest already.  I don't see any way to get there without including Starlink flights.

I think he just divided the $12 Billion by SpaceX's launch prices.  Adjusting for Dragon, NSS, FH, etc. raises the average price of their manifest well above the 62M/launch for an F9 and makes >100 launches a reasonable estimate of their total manifest.  Especially if they also combine that with the knowledge that SpaceX will be launching their own sats for the constellation. etc.

Doing the math, an assumption of $100M/launch is quite high, especially after Block 5 is on the scene and a majority of launches are reused, selling for something like 50-60% of that figure.  At <$100M, that's >120 launches... makes the problem worse, not better.

[wannamoonbase]

Has anyone calculated the % of commercial launches available that SpaceX is winning per year?

I think that would be a very telling number over a number of years.

If they can fly safely and get to 24+ launches a year they should win most everything that's commercially bid.

I believe it's been stated they would max out at about 40 upper stages a year.  I think that would be the upper limit for a long time. 

There just isn't that many launches, yet.

Edit: My point is that a flight rate of 25-30 would likely be enough to keep up to the manifest.

[deruch]

I think he just divided the $12 Billion by SpaceX's launch prices.  Adjusting for Dragon, NSS, FH, etc. raises the average price of their manifest well above the 62M/launch for an F9 and makes >100 launches a reasonable estimate of their total manifest.  Especially if they also combine that with the knowledge that SpaceX will be launching their own sats for the constellation. etc.

Doing the math, an assumption of $100M/launch is quite high, especially after Block 5 is on the scene and a majority of launches are reused, selling for something like 50-60% of that figure.  At <$100M, that's >120 launches... makes the problem worse, not better.

Assuming a $60M average price gets you 200 launches.  Average of $120M/launch gets you 100 launches.  All the article claimed was >100 and given the roundness, my feeling was that the author just looked at those numbers ($60M<Avg. price for all launches<$120M, when accounting for CRS, Crew, NSS, FH, etc.) and went with it as a fairly safe estimate.  My point isn't so much about the math (inherently YMMV), as that I didn't feel like we were seeing a solid estimate of the actual number of missions on contract in that article.