Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5  (Read 281913 times)

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #280 on: 02/16/2018 03:23 AM »
There were slips announced today varying from one day (PAZ) to almost a month (TESS) for what we expected to be the next 4 SpaceX flights.  Check the top post in the thread for the updated list.

Offline smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #281 on: 02/16/2018 04:26 PM »
Since we have finally some info about next two FH flights -
Here is an update for "SpaceX FPIP".
Although there is a lot of guesses even for the schedule of next months...

Offline AncientU

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #282 on: 02/18/2018 04:37 PM »
New article:
Quote
SpaceX 's next salvo in the space wars: Launching test satellites to bring the Web to billions
Quote
SpaceX is valued around $21.5 billion and has received at least $1 billion in investment from Google-parent Alphabet , as well as Fidelity. The company says it has over 100 missions on its upcoming launch manifest that are worth more than $12 billion in contracts.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/spacex-apos-next-salvo-space-161700220.html

Current tabulation at top of this thread shows about 63 launches... missing one third to one half of their manifest somehow.

Also other interesting data in the article for other threads.
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Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #283 on: 02/18/2018 04:52 PM »
Current tabulation at top of this thread shows about 63 launches... missing one third to one half of their manifest somehow.

I've never seen that claim of >100 flights in the manifest before.  Maybe that includes Starlink flights?  I don't see where else the other >35 flights would be coming from.

Offline jpo234

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #284 on: 02/18/2018 05:19 PM »
Current tabulation at top of this thread shows about 63 launches... missing one third to one half of their manifest somehow.

I've never seen that claim of >100 flights in the manifest before.  Maybe that includes Starlink flights?  I don't see where else the other >35 flights would be coming from.
Hans (?) gave us the$12bn number. Can we calculate back from this? 12*10^9 / 100*10^6 = 120. This rough approximation supports more than 100 open flights.
« Last Edit: 02/18/2018 05:21 PM by jpo234 »
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Offline AncientU

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #285 on: 02/18/2018 05:23 PM »
Current tabulation at top of this thread shows about 63 launches... missing one third to one half of their manifest somehow.

I've never seen that claim of >100 flights in the manifest before.  Maybe that includes Starlink flights?  I don't see where else the other >35 flights would be coming from.

That would be my guess, unless they are also hiding a compete class of launches such as tourist flights.  Could there also be a set of flights on the NSS side for an early constellation that is still dark?
« Last Edit: 02/18/2018 05:27 PM by AncientU »
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Offline AncientU

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #286 on: 02/18/2018 05:49 PM »
Telesat has a 120-140 sat constellation that is on the verge of being built. 
Haven't announced who is building or launching... starts in 2020.
Quote
Telesat to announce manufacturing plans for LEO constellation in coming months
http://spacenews.com/telesat-to-announce-manufacturing-plans-for-leo-constellation-in-coming-months/?utm_content=buffer04cee&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

No connection at all with Spacex AFAIK, but accounts for a batch of launches that aren't yet shown on any manifest.
« Last Edit: 02/18/2018 05:51 PM by AncientU »
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Offline rockets4life97

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #287 on: 02/19/2018 01:29 AM »
Current tabulation at top of this thread shows about 63 launches... missing one third to one half of their manifest somehow.

I've never seen that claim of >100 flights in the manifest before.  Maybe that includes Starlink flights?  I don't see where else the other >35 flights would be coming from.

Would their be a reason for the big GTO satellite operators (I'm thinking of SES, Eutelsat, Intelsat, etc.) to keep quiet on recent satellite orders and subsequent launch vehicle contracts? I've seen it repeated that the GTO sat market is down, but I don't remember many press releases in 2017 for satellites ordered. Surely there were a number that didn't make it into the news?

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #288 on: 02/19/2018 01:54 AM »
Current tabulation at top of this thread shows about 63 launches... missing one third to one half of their manifest somehow.

I've never seen that claim of >100 flights in the manifest before.  Maybe that includes Starlink flights?  I don't see where else the other >35 flights would be coming from.

Would their be a reason for the big GTO satellite operators (I'm thinking of SES, Eutelsat, Intelsat, etc.) to keep quiet on recent satellite orders and subsequent launch vehicle contracts? I've seen it repeated that the GTO sat market is down, but I don't remember many press releases in 2017 for satellites ordered. Surely there were a number that didn't make it into the news?

No.

If you added up every real (actually contracted) payload in the world that doesn't have an announced ride, and then added in all the government birds up for bid right now (which can't all go to SpaceX), you still wouldn't get anywhere near that number.  And these are supposed to be things actually on the manifest already.  I don't see any way to get there without including Starlink flights.

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #289 on: 02/19/2018 02:00 AM »
Current tabulation at top of this thread shows about 63 launches... missing one third to one half of their manifest somehow.

I've never seen that claim of >100 flights in the manifest before.  Maybe that includes Starlink flights?  I don't see where else the other >35 flights would be coming from.

Would their be a reason for the big GTO satellite operators (I'm thinking of SES, Eutelsat, Intelsat, etc.) to keep quiet on recent satellite orders and subsequent launch vehicle contracts? I've seen it repeated that the GTO sat market is down, but I don't remember many press releases in 2017 for satellites ordered. Surely there were a number that didn't make it into the news?

No.

If you added up every real (actually contracted) payload in the world that doesn't have an announced ride, and then added in all the government birds up for bid right now (which can't all go to SpaceX), you still wouldn't get anywhere near that number.  And these are supposed to be things actually on the manifest already.  I don't see any way to get there without including Starlink flights.

So, what would you say?
5-10 other commercial/government launches?
50 Starlink launches?

Edit: According to Gunter's Space Page's "Recently awarded GEO-Sat Contracts" list, there are by my count 12 commercial satellites that have been ordered without confirmed launch vehicles:
* DirecTV 16
* KMiSatCom 1
* SatKomHan 1
* ViaSat Americas and ViaSat EMEA
* Inmarsat-6 F1 and F2
* Arabsat 6D
* ETS 9 (Kiku 9)
* Jupiter 3/EchoStar 24
* Palapa N1 (Nasantara 1)
* Techo 1
« Last Edit: 02/19/2018 02:29 AM by rockets4life97 »

Offline deruch

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #290 on: 02/19/2018 03:31 AM »
Current tabulation at top of this thread shows about 63 launches... missing one third to one half of their manifest somehow.

I've never seen that claim of >100 flights in the manifest before.  Maybe that includes Starlink flights?  I don't see where else the other >35 flights would be coming from.

Would their be a reason for the big GTO satellite operators (I'm thinking of SES, Eutelsat, Intelsat, etc.) to keep quiet on recent satellite orders and subsequent launch vehicle contracts? I've seen it repeated that the GTO sat market is down, but I don't remember many press releases in 2017 for satellites ordered. Surely there were a number that didn't make it into the news?

No.

If you added up every real (actually contracted) payload in the world that doesn't have an announced ride, and then added in all the government birds up for bid right now (which can't all go to SpaceX), you still wouldn't get anywhere near that number.  And these are supposed to be things actually on the manifest already.  I don't see any way to get there without including Starlink flights.

I think he just divided the $12 Billion by SpaceX's launch prices.  Adjusting for Dragon, NSS, FH, etc. raises the average price of their manifest well above the 62M/launch for an F9 and makes >100 launches a reasonable estimate of their total manifest.  Especially if they also combine that with the knowledge that SpaceX will be launching their own sats for the constellation. etc.
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Offline macpacheco

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #291 on: 02/19/2018 02:43 PM »
Current tabulation at top of this thread shows about 63 launches... missing one third to one half of their manifest somehow.

I've never seen that claim of >100 flights in the manifest before.  Maybe that includes Starlink flights?  I don't see where else the other >35 flights would be coming from.

Would their be a reason for the big GTO satellite operators (I'm thinking of SES, Eutelsat, Intelsat, etc.) to keep quiet on recent satellite orders and subsequent launch vehicle contracts? I've seen it repeated that the GTO sat market is down, but I don't remember many press releases in 2017 for satellites ordered. Surely there were a number that didn't make it into the news?
Let's not forget natl security launches which were only announced a few months prior. Some are that secret...
And although not common, customers can ask for secrecy too.
Probably not even 20% of the balance though.
Looking for companies doing great things for much more than money

Offline AncientU

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #292 on: 02/19/2018 06:11 PM »
Current tabulation at top of this thread shows about 63 launches... missing one third to one half of their manifest somehow.

I've never seen that claim of >100 flights in the manifest before.  Maybe that includes Starlink flights?  I don't see where else the other >35 flights would be coming from.

Would their be a reason for the big GTO satellite operators (I'm thinking of SES, Eutelsat, Intelsat, etc.) to keep quiet on recent satellite orders and subsequent launch vehicle contracts? I've seen it repeated that the GTO sat market is down, but I don't remember many press releases in 2017 for satellites ordered. Surely there were a number that didn't make it into the news?

No.

If you added up every real (actually contracted) payload in the world that doesn't have an announced ride, and then added in all the government birds up for bid right now (which can't all go to SpaceX), you still wouldn't get anywhere near that number.  And these are supposed to be things actually on the manifest already.  I don't see any way to get there without including Starlink flights.

I think he just divided the $12 Billion by SpaceX's launch prices.  Adjusting for Dragon, NSS, FH, etc. raises the average price of their manifest well above the 62M/launch for an F9 and makes >100 launches a reasonable estimate of their total manifest.  Especially if they also combine that with the knowledge that SpaceX will be launching their own sats for the constellation. etc.

Doing the math, an assumption of $100M/launch is quite high, especially after Block 5 is on the scene and a majority of launches are reused, selling for something like 50-60% of that figure.  At <$100M, that's >120 launches... makes the problem worse, not better.
« Last Edit: 02/19/2018 06:14 PM by AncientU »
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Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #293 on: 02/20/2018 12:26 AM »
Has anyone calculated the % of commercial launches available that SpaceX is winning per year?

I think that would be a very telling number over a number of years.

If they can fly safely and get to 24+ launches a year they should win most everything that's commercially bid.

I believe it's been stated they would max out at about 40 upper stages a year.  I think that would be the upper limit for a long time. 

There just isn't that many launches, yet.

Edit: My point is that a flight rate of 25-30 would likely be enough to keep up to the manifest.
« Last Edit: 02/20/2018 12:30 AM by wannamoonbase »
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Offline deruch

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #294 on: 02/20/2018 10:39 AM »
I think he just divided the $12 Billion by SpaceX's launch prices.  Adjusting for Dragon, NSS, FH, etc. raises the average price of their manifest well above the 62M/launch for an F9 and makes >100 launches a reasonable estimate of their total manifest.  Especially if they also combine that with the knowledge that SpaceX will be launching their own sats for the constellation. etc.

Doing the math, an assumption of $100M/launch is quite high, especially after Block 5 is on the scene and a majority of launches are reused, selling for something like 50-60% of that figure.  At <$100M, that's >120 launches... makes the problem worse, not better.

Assuming a $60M average price gets you 200 launches.  Average of $120M/launch gets you 100 launches.  All the article claimed was >100 and given the roundness, my feeling was that the author just looked at those numbers ($60M<Avg. price for all launches<$120M, when accounting for CRS, Crew, NSS, FH, etc.) and went with it as a fairly safe estimate.  My point isn't so much about the math (inherently YMMV), as that I didn't feel like we were seeing a solid estimate of the actual number of missions on contract in that article.
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Offline niwax

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #295 on: 02/20/2018 10:51 AM »
Has anyone calculated the % of commercial launches available that SpaceX is winning per year?

I think that would be a very telling number over a number of years.

If they can fly safely and get to 24+ launches a year they should win most everything that's commercially bid.

I believe it's been stated they would max out at about 40 upper stages a year.  I think that would be the upper limit for a long time. 

Gwynne Shotwell said in a talk recently that their 2018 launch cadence captures slightly over half the commercial market.
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Offline AncientU

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #296 on: 02/20/2018 04:45 PM »
Has anyone calculated the % of commercial launches available that SpaceX is winning per year?

I think that would be a very telling number over a number of years.

If they can fly safely and get to 24+ launches a year they should win most everything that's commercially bid.

I believe it's been stated they would max out at about 40 upper stages a year.  I think that would be the upper limit for a long time. 

Gwynne Shotwell said in a talk recently that their 2018 launch cadence captures slightly over half the commercial market.

I believe her recent comment was that they won over half of the launches they competed last year (maybe she said both, but only heard the competition bit).
« Last Edit: 02/20/2018 04:47 PM by AncientU »
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Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #297 on: 02/20/2018 05:36 PM »
This thread is for tracking the actual known missions that make up the manifest.  Let's put aside further discussion of the vague future manifest numbers or launch market share.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #298 on: 02/22/2018 12:45 PM »
Quote
For @IridiumComm, if @SpaceX launches today OK as planned, the 5th IRDM 10-sat Falcon 9 launch should occur on March 29. Then 6th F9 launch end-April.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/966668323093086209

Offline AncientU

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #299 on: 02/22/2018 12:51 PM »
4 week cadence.  Probably applies to remainder of constellation.
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