SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5

[rockets4life97]

The relative lack of launches in 2019 is concerning for spacex's long term ability to fund BFR.  Seems like once they are through this year they have little left to do.

SpaceX Vice President of Build and flight reliability, Hans Koenigsmann, spoke at the SmallSat Symposium yesterday. He said SpaceX now has a greater than $12 Billion in manifest backlog. Here is the relevant tweet from Peter B. de Spelding.

if someone wants to do some math, they could pull out the Commercial Resupply Services and Commercial Crew numbers out of that 12 Billion and estimate how many future commercial satellite launches haven't been announced. My guess is there is little concern for SpaceX's 2019 manifest and beyond.

[rsdavis9]

How can an expendable return (Govsat) be unsuccessful? 

They were testing a landing burn without having anything to actually land on. It didn't sink and appeared to have remained intact. Or at least it didn't sink straight away. There's a speculative recovery thread on Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/7uw4ly/b01322_the_falcon_that_could_recovery_thread/

By contrast, the FH Centre Core is reported to have broken up on impact with the ocean, after missing the drone ship, due to two engines not igniting for the landing burn (Elon Musk in the post-launch press conference).

Sent from my Swift 2 Plus using Tapatalk

also 300 mph from press conf.

[sewebster]

Shouldn't the next few Vandenberg launches be UTC-8? (showing as -7 in table)

[gongora]

SpaceX filed a couple of FCC permits for a launch with ASDS recovery from SLC-40 (File Numbers 0210-EX-ST-2018 & 0211-EX-ST-2018).  Start dates were 3/30 on the launch vehicle comms permit (for mission 1418) and 4/2 on the landing permit, so unless F9 learned how to stay up there a couple days I'm assuming that means NET 4/2.  I'm guessing that would be Bangabandhu-1?  Which would mean a slip of another few days for that mission.  It also is basically the same date and launch pad as the last info I've seen for CRS-14, so one of those is either going to slip some more or maybe CRS-14 switches pads?  My guess would be Bangabandhu-1 goes after CRS-14.  We'll get more information eventually.

[gongora]

Shouldn't the next few Vandenberg launches be UTC-8? (showing as -7 in table)

The next one should be UTC-8 (apparently my brain confused February for March).

[sewebster]

Shouldn't the next few Vandenberg launches be UTC-8? (showing as -7 in table)

The next one should be UTC-8 (apparently my brain confused February for March).

Looks good now, thanks! (wow, DST starts soon!)

[vaporcobra]

SpaceX just received launch and landing licenses for Mission 1380, NET March 20. The landing STA mentions radio communications at the ASDS, but I'm not quite sure if this license is for Bangabandhu-1 or TESS.

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=82383

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=82387

[ChrisGebhardt]

When I asked Elon at the post-FH demo press conference which FH mission was next, Arabsat or STP-2, he nodded to Arabsat.  So I think that should go back before STP-2 on the top post.

[envy887]

The GovSat booster has now been successfully expended. Just took longer than expected.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisG_NSF/status/961622795900866561

[FutureSpaceTourist]

When I asked Elon at the post-FH demo press conference which FH mission was next, Arabsat or STP-2, he nodded to Arabsat.  So I think that should go back before STP-2 on the top post.

And yet:

According to #NASA PAO @NASA does have two payloads on the *next* @SpaceX #FalconHeavy flight

https://twitter.com/NASAWatch/status/961969593291075584

So someone's info is out of date! Serious Q: with everything going on do you think Elon is close, on a day-to-day, basis with SpaceX's busy manifest?

[envy887]

When I asked Elon at the post-FH demo press conference which FH mission was next, Arabsat or STP-2, he nodded to Arabsat.  So I think that should go back before STP-2 on the top post.

And yet:

According to #NASA PAO @NASA does have two payloads on the *next* @SpaceX #FalconHeavy flight

https://twitter.com/NASAWatch/status/961969593291075584

So someone's info is out of date! Serious Q: with everything going on do you think Elon is close, on a day-to-day, basis with SpaceX's busy manifest?

I expect he would know whether ArabSat or STP-2 is going on the next FH.

[gongora]

The FH order has been ambiguous for a while.  We'll get more information eventually.  There will probably be at least 10 F9 flights before the next FH.

[cscott]

The FH order has been ambiguous for a while.  We'll get more information eventually.  There will probably be at least 10 F9 flights before the next FH.

I've got tickets to the STP-2 launch, courtesy of a long-ago Kickstarter by the planetary society. So I'm very interested in the actual order!

But I suspect the ambiguity is not all from SpaceX.  It seemed like the STP-2 payload was nervous about being the first operational launch, and was eager for the opportunity to have ArabSat be the first guinea pig. There may be actual USAF qualification requirements involved. Given the apparent success of the first mission, I expect a negotiation will be initiated with both customers to determine a mutually agreeable schedule based on the customers' determination of flight risk, delay tolerance, price incentives, and their own assessment of various qualification benchmarks achieved by the first mission.  SpaceX can't announce an official order until those negotiations are complete, although they might have a good idea about how their clients are likely to respond. The difference between current official order and the likely outcome of negotiations may explain the contradiction between the statements by the NASA PAO and Elon. (But if I wanted a more authoritative guess, I'd ask Gwynne.)

[Olaf]

There is a new SMSR Near-Term schedule, dated February,7, available. But I have no access from my location. Maybe some from the US can provide this.

[gongora]

There is a new SMSR Near-Term schedule, dated February,7, available. But I have no access from my location. Maybe some from the US can provide this.

I've been trying to look at that for a few days now, the file isn't available in the U.S. either.

[Shanuson]

There is a new SMSR Near-Term schedule, dated February,7, available. But I have no access from my location. Maybe some from the US can provide this.

I've been trying to look at that for a few days now, the file isn't available in the U.S. either.

Should be found here: https://sma.nasa.gov/docs/default-source/sma-disciplines-and-programs/smsr/smsr-near-term-schedule_february-7-2018.pdf (linked on https://sma.nasa.gov/sma-disciplines/smsr#smsr_upcomingEvents)

No access here either.

[rockets4life97]

There is a new SMSR Near-Term schedule, dated February,7, available. But I have no access from my location. Maybe some from the US can provide this.

I've been trying to look at that for a few days now, the file isn't available in the U.S. either.

Should be found here: https://sma.nasa.gov/docs/default-source/sma-disciplines-and-programs/smsr/smsr-near-term-schedule_february-7-2018.pdf (linked on https://sma.nasa.gov/sma-disciplines/smsr#smsr_upcomingEvents)

No access here either.

I can't download the pdf, but at the second link from Shanuson it says (SpaceX relevant):
TESS -- Feb 21, 2018
GRACE -- March, 2018
SpaceX DM-1 -- July 2018

[gongora]

There is a new SMSR Near-Term schedule, dated February,7, available. But I have no access from my location. Maybe some from the US can provide this.

I've been trying to look at that for a few days now, the file isn't available in the U.S. either.

Should be found here: https://sma.nasa.gov/docs/default-source/sma-disciplines-and-programs/smsr/smsr-near-term-schedule_february-7-2018.pdf (linked on https://sma.nasa.gov/sma-disciplines/smsr#smsr_upcomingEvents)

No access here either.

I can't download the pdf, but at the second link from Shanuson it says (SpaceX relevant):
TESS -- Feb 2, 2018
GRACE -- March, 2018
SpaceX DM-1 -- July 2018

Just to be clear, those are not launch dates.  The corresponding launch dates are shown in the pdf files.

[WmThomas]

Launch schedule as of this post codes NASA(TESS) launch time as Pacific time. But I think the 19:58 time is Eastern.

[gongora]

Launch schedule as of this post codes NASA(TESS) launch time as Pacific time. But I think the 19:58 time is Eastern.

Fixed