Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5  (Read 197926 times)

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #160 on: 11/20/2017 06:41 PM »
And it seems, according to Irene Klotz, won’t be until December:

Quote
#SpaceX Zuma off range at least until it reopens after annual maintenance Dec 1
http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/spacex-classified-zuma-launch-delayed-until-least-december

https://twitter.com/free_space/status/932689217599213568
« Last Edit: 11/20/2017 06:42 PM by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline deruch

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #161 on: 11/21/2017 07:47 AM »
I tend not to look at the FAA site nearly as often as I look at the FCC site, but SpaceX should be needing at least 8 new or modified FAA launch licenses through next April/May (including Zuma which apparently won't ever be publicly available on their site, just like Formosat 5.)  Some to watch out for as their flights approach would be FH Demo, GTO flights from SLC-40, PAZ, TESS, GRACE-FO, DM-1, SSO-A.

I believe TESS was contracted through NASA Launch Services and as such won't require a FAA launch license.  Non-commerical.
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Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #162 on: 11/21/2017 03:47 PM »
Interview with Gwynne Shotwell:

http://spacenews.com/spacex-aims-to-follow-a-banner-year-with-an-even-faster-2018-launch-cadence/

Includes this on launches next year:

Quote
“We will increase our cadence next year about 50 percent,” Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX president and COO, told SpaceNews in an interview last week. “We’ll fly more next year than this year, knock on wood, and I think we will probably level out at about that rate, 30 to 40 per year.”

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #163 on: 11/21/2017 04:17 PM »
So a mature rate of 30 to 40 missions per year for F9 and FH without accounting for the constellation she says. Wow.
« Last Edit: 11/21/2017 04:33 PM by AbuSimbel »
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Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #164 on: 11/21/2017 04:28 PM »
It's really unlikely they fly more than about 30 next year, unless there are more mystery payloads.  30 should catch them up on their manifest.
« Last Edit: 11/21/2017 05:26 PM by gongora »

Offline mn

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #165 on: 11/21/2017 05:42 PM »
It's really unlikely they fly more than about 30 next year, unless there are more mystery payloads.  30 should catch them up on their manifest.

Doesn't seem like she's even expecting 30 next year. (unless you think they end up with more than 20 this year).

Quote
“We will increase our cadence next year about 50 percent,” Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX president and COO, told SpaceNews in an interview last week. “We’ll fly more next year than this year, knock on wood, and I think we will probably level out at about that rate, 30 to 40 per year.”

But really I think 'cadence' and actual numbers are not the same thing. You can have a general flow that supports x number per year, but actual numbers will generally be less due to breaks in the rhythm. (as was the case this year).

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #166 on: 11/23/2017 12:11 AM »
Did CRS-14 slip a month?

[evertiq] Denmark’s next major space project prepared for launch
Quote
The Atmosphere-Space Interactions Monitor (ASIM), is on its way to the US to be prepared for launch from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida to the International Space Station (ISS).

The launch is scheduled for Tuesday, 13 March 2018, and ASIM is planned for launch on the SpaceX Falcon 9 launcher.

Offline input~2

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #167 on: 11/24/2017 08:23 PM »
Bangabandhu launch now planned for March 2018
(source)

Offline Salo

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #168 on: 11/27/2017 08:57 PM »
https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/935256052240650242
Quote
Chris B - NSF‏ @NASASpaceflight
SpaceX returns to SLC-40 for the next mission - Falcon 9 launch with CRS-13 Dragon. Static Fire is currently waiting on a firm date (Wednesday no longer the target). Launch date now has a NASA planning date of December 8, but don't go booking flights until this all firms up.

Offline vaporcobra

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #169 on: 11/28/2017 06:52 PM »
FWIW, SpaceX was granted FCC licenses for a launch (Mission 1389) from LC-40 and ASDS recovery NET 1/15/17, almost certainly Govsat.
« Last Edit: 11/28/2017 06:55 PM by vaporcobra »

Offline mn

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #170 on: 11/29/2017 05:26 PM »
Update re SpaceIL (putting it here since I don't see a thread dedicated to this and it's potentially on the SpaceX manifest somewhere)

Quote
... Only two weeks before its completion, $20 million are needed by the end of the year to prevent the project’s termination. This would result in the cancellation of the launch planned for 2018 ...

More details here: http://www.spaceil.com/news/spaceil-alerts-the-national-dream-in-danger-of-closing/


Offline jpo234

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #171 on: 12/06/2017 09:56 PM »
Zuma just officially moved to SLC-40.
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Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #172 on: 12/07/2017 11:57 AM »
I've just noticed that CRS-14 is listed on the manifest as reusing a booster.

Is that an assumption or have I missed an announcement? I thought the CRS-13 statement on reuse said NASA would look at it on a case-by-case basis for each launch and thus, although perhaps likely, it's not yet official whether CRS-14 would reuse?

Offline macpacheco

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #173 on: 12/07/2017 12:49 PM »
I've just noticed that CRS-14 is listed on the manifest as reusing a booster.

Is that an assumption or have I missed an announcement? I thought the CRS-13 statement on reuse said NASA would look at it on a case-by-case basis for each launch and thus, although perhaps likely, it's not yet official whether CRS-14 would reuse?
If you read the details on what NASA did for CRS-13 reuse permission, they're just reviewing SpaceX work. So as long as SpaceX is just as careful, there's no reasonable expectation NASA will say no. Its NASA folks justifying their jobs and covering their rears.
The key is CRS-13/Govsat-1 and Iridium launches going without a hitch. That will add up to 6 (hoperfully successful) relaunches.
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Offline Jakusb

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #174 on: 12/07/2017 11:05 PM »
I've just noticed that CRS-14 is listed on the manifest as reusing a booster.

Is that an assumption or have I missed an announcement? I thought the CRS-13 statement on reuse said NASA would look at it on a case-by-case basis for each launch and thus, although perhaps likely, it's not yet official whether CRS-14 would reuse?
If you read the details on what NASA did for CRS-13 reuse permission, they're just reviewing SpaceX work. So as long as SpaceX is just as careful, there's no reasonable expectation NASA will say no. Its NASA folks justifying their jobs and covering their rears.
The key is CRS-13/Govsat-1 and Iridium launches going without a hitch. That will add up to 6 (hoperfully successful) relaunches.

Don’t forget FH Demo adding another 2 flight-proven stages being reflown. ;)

I believe there are 1 or 2 other flight-proven cores without a mission, so at this point we are almost running out of flight-proven stages.

This will change with Block 5 being able to refly 10 times without serious refurb.

Offline JBF

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #175 on: 12/11/2017 12:34 PM »
I've just noticed that CRS-14 is listed on the manifest as reusing a booster.

Is that an assumption or have I missed an announcement? I thought the CRS-13 statement on reuse said NASA would look at it on a case-by-case basis for each launch and thus, although perhaps likely, it's not yet official whether CRS-14 would reuse?
If you read the details on what NASA did for CRS-13 reuse permission, they're just reviewing SpaceX work. So as long as SpaceX is just as careful, there's no reasonable expectation NASA will say no. Its NASA folks justifying their jobs and covering their rears.
The key is CRS-13/Govsat-1 and Iridium launches going without a hitch. That will add up to 6 (hoperfully successful) relaunches.

Don’t forget FH Demo adding another 2 flight-proven stages being reflown. ;)

I believe there are 1 or 2 other flight-proven cores without a mission, so at this point we are almost running out of flight-proven stages.

This will change with Block 5 being able to refly 10 times without serious refurb.

Don't count your chickens before they hatch.  Although that is the design goal; they may not hit it with the first iteration.
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Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #176 on: 12/11/2017 07:16 PM »
This thread isn't for general discussion of reuse.  It's for discussing entries on the launch manifest.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #177 on: 12/14/2017 04:04 PM »
Update re SpaceIL (putting it here since I don't see a thread dedicated to this and it's potentially on the SpaceX manifest somewhere)

Quote
... Only two weeks before its completion, $20 million are needed by the end of the year to prevent the project’s termination. This would result in the cancellation of the launch planned for 2018 ...

More details here: http://www.spaceil.com/news/spaceil-alerts-the-national-dream-in-danger-of-closing/

Update:

Quote
SpaceIL making final fundraising push for lunar lander mission
by Jeff Foust — December 14, 2017

WASHINGTON — SpaceIL, the Israeli team in the Google Lunar X Prize competition, says it needs to raise $7.5 million in less than a week in order to complete its lander and retain its launch contract.

http://spacenews.com/spaceil-making-final-fundraising-push-for-lunar-lander-mission/

Still not revealing which SpaceX launch they are aiming for and admit it's very tight - even with funding - to get all the required testing done in time to meet Xprize deadline of end of March 2018.

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #178 on: 12/14/2017 04:11 PM »
Update:

Quote
SpaceIL making final fundraising push for lunar lander mission
by Jeff Foust — December 14, 2017

WASHINGTON — SpaceIL, the Israeli team in the Google Lunar X Prize competition, says it needs to raise $7.5 million in less than a week in order to complete its lander and retain its launch contract.

http://spacenews.com/spaceil-making-final-fundraising-push-for-lunar-lander-mission/

Still not revealing which SpaceX launch they are aiming for and admit it's very tight - even with funding - to get all the required testing done in time to meet Xprize deadline of end of March 2018.

Saying it's a supersync GTO comsat launch is a lot more information than we had before, although not enough to really figure out which flight.  It doesn't sound like they have any intention at all of launching before the Xprize deadline, and they don't control their schedule anyway as a secondary payload.
« Last Edit: 12/14/2017 04:16 PM by gongora »

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #179 on: 12/15/2017 01:10 AM »

...
Saying it's a supersync GTO comsat launch is a lot more information than we had before, although not enough to really figure out which flight. 
...

Well, looks like it is enough :)
Of course this is enough only -
IF -- 1. the launch of that primary payload is indeed scheduled for the first quarter
AND
IF -- 2. that primary payload is indeed going for SUPERSYNC

THEN

for the first quarter SpaceX has four GTO missions:

Jan 30, 2018...SES-16 (GovSat-1)... ~4000 kg
Feb xx, 2018...SES-12...5300 kg
early (?) 2018...Hispasat 30W-6 (1F)...6092 kg
Mar xx, 2018...Bangabandhu-1...wt unknown

Hispasat is too heavy for supersync GTO with current version of F9 (actually, it's too heavy for any co-passenger);
SES-12 is too heavy as well - if we take into account SpaceIL weight;
SES-16 (GovSat-1) is way too early;

Which leaves us with the only option - Bangabandhu-1

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