Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5  (Read 268563 times)

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #120 on: 10/20/2017 09:03 PM »
I can't remember if anyone has already identified it, but new filings were posted today for for Mission 1381, operations to begin NET November 28th from LC-40.

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80703

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80700

We think those are CRS-13.  The application for altimeter testing at CCAFS was also granted today.  After looking at those grants together, it appears the first stage is authorized to use its altimeter when it's within 10km of the landing site.

Online vaporcobra

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #121 on: 10/20/2017 10:38 PM »
I can't remember if anyone has already identified it, but new filings were posted today for for Mission 1381, operations to begin NET November 28th from LC-40.

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80703

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80700

We think those are CRS-13.  The application for altimeter testing at CCAFS was also granted today.  After looking at those grants together, it appears the first stage is authorized to use its altimeter when it's within 10km of the landing site.

Ah, I see the problem, my RSS feed registered them being granted today. I remember that now, CRS-13 was originally Nov 28 so it's the only logical answer.

Offline jfallen

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #122 on: 10/24/2017 12:22 PM »
Looking at the schedule, there is a window at the end of December where SpaceX could have a rocket vertical on all three pads at the same time.    Iridium on SLC-4E, Hispasat on SLC-40, and FH on LC-39A.

That would be quite a Christmas card for Elon to send out.

Offline Salo

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #123 on: 10/25/2017 04:56 PM »
https://twitter.com/CHenry_SN/status/923205405643329536
Quote
Caleb Henry‏ @CHenry_SN
SpaceX's Patricia Cooper: 2 demo sats launching in next few months, then constellation deployment in 2019. Can start service w/ ~800 sats.

Online Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #124 on: 10/25/2017 11:03 PM »
https://twitter.com/CHenry_SN/status/923205405643329536
Quote
Caleb Henry‏ @CHenry_SN
SpaceX's Patricia Cooper: 2 demo sats launching in next few months, then constellation deployment in 2019. Can start service w/ ~800 sats.

Twitter is so.... limited.
Is that deployment of 800 satellites all in 2019, or 2018 and 2019?
How could anyone build 800 satellites in two years? [Rhetorical]
Isn't Iridium bragging about their high speed production building 80 or so in two or so years? [Rhetorical]
Do we have an estimate of how many launches it will take for 800 satellites?

Edit:  This is asked in the Manifest threads for the sole purpose of estimating how many launches will have to be inserted into our manifest and where on the timeline.
The other questions can probably be better discussed elsewhere.
« Last Edit: 10/25/2017 11:05 PM by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online vaporcobra

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #125 on: 10/25/2017 11:14 PM »
https://twitter.com/CHenry_SN/status/923205405643329536
Quote
Caleb Henry‏ @CHenry_SN
SpaceX's Patricia Cooper: 2 demo sats launching in next few months, then constellation deployment in 2019. Can start service w/ ~800 sats.

Twitter is so.... limited.
Is that deployment of 800 satellites all in 2019, or 2018 and 2019?
How could anyone build 800 satellites in two years? [Rhetorical]
Isn't Iridium bragging about their high speed production building 80 or so in two or so years? [Rhetorical]
Do we have an estimate of how many launches it will take for 800 satellites?

Edit:  This is asked in the Manifest threads for the sole purpose of estimating how many launches will have to be inserted into our manifest and where on the timeline.
The other questions can probably be better discussed elsewhere.

Watched the full livestream, it's available here now. Also wrote a brief summary of the SpaceX bits.

Per the manifest thread-relevant question, Ms. Cooper was gently pushed for a timeline and said that limited service would start once 800 or so satellites were launched, and that the timeframe for that was 2020-2021. So between 24-36 months to launch ~800, 2024 to launch all ~4000.
« Last Edit: 10/25/2017 11:15 PM by vaporcobra »

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #126 on: 10/26/2017 05:10 AM »
Just as a general estimate, with 20 satellites of 500kg each per launch, 800 in 24-36 months would require 1-2 launches per month on average. For 24 months, that equates to one launch every 2.6 weeks. For 36 months, every 3.25 weeks.

Basically, double 2017's planned cadence without serving any additional paying customers. With the constellation requiring only LEO launches and Block 5 theoretically allowing for 10 reuses without refurb, it seems entirely possible. Pad availability becomes the major limiting factor at that point.

Offline yokem55

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #127 on: 10/26/2017 06:14 AM »
Just as a general estimate, with 20 satellites of 500kg each per launch, 800 in 24-36 months would require 1-2 launches per month on average. For 24 months, that equates to one launch every 2.6 weeks. For 36 months, every 3.25 weeks.

Basically, double 2017's planned cadence without serving any additional paying customers. With the constellation requiring only LEO launches and Block 5 theoretically allowing for 10 reuses without refurb, it seems entirely possible. Pad availability becomes the major limiting factor at that point.
It will help having 2 East coast pads. If they can launch from each twice a month, that's 4 flights of capacity per month. The bigger issues will be upper stages, payload dispensers, payload processing, completed satellites, fairings, and after deployment checkout and commissioning. Getting that process and it routine down will take a while to ramp up as well.

Online Kenp51d

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #128 on: 10/26/2017 02:44 PM »
Does Halthrone have or will have the ability to produce that number of upper stages + pluss the number required for paying rides?
If BFR hits schedule my question maybe a bit mute.

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Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #129 on: 10/26/2017 03:00 PM »
Speculation on internet constellation launch timings, flight rates, hardware production rates, etc. would be better in the satellite constellation threads instead of the manifest thread for now.  We don't have any firm news on internet constellation launches yet.

Offline AncientU

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #130 on: 10/26/2017 04:18 PM »
Speculation on internet constellation launch timings, flight rates, hardware production rates, etc. would be better in the satellite constellation threads instead of the manifest thread for now.  We don't have any firm news on internet constellation launches yet.

Would it not be consistent to add a single line for Starlink launches, with number/start date TBD?  Also, they plan two test spacecraft by first quarter 2018, probably on a single launch... haven't heard that they are co-manifested, so likely separate launch depending on when license is issued.
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Online cppetrie

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SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #131 on: 10/26/2017 04:23 PM »
Speculation on internet constellation launch timings, flight rates, hardware production rates, etc. would be better in the satellite constellation threads instead of the manifest thread for now.  We don't have any firm news on internet constellation launches yet.

Would it not be consistent to add a single line for Starlink launches, with number/start date TBD?  Also, they plan two test spacecraft by first quarter 2018, probably on a single launch... haven't heard that they are co-manifested, so likely separate launch depending on when license is issued.
I think current speculation is that they are co-manifested with PAZ at the end of January.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42485.40
Edit: added link to PAZ discussion thread
« Last Edit: 10/26/2017 04:26 PM by cppetrie »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #132 on: 10/27/2017 03:48 AM »
Speculation on internet constellation launch timings, flight rates, hardware production rates, etc. would be better in the satellite constellation threads instead of the manifest thread for now.  We don't have any firm news on internet constellation launches yet.
No, but this does answer questions about whether SpaceX's manifest in 2019 will be full (30 flights or more) or not.

I think it means that they're planning to launch a whole bunch of satellites, so they at least think they'll be full.
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Offline SmallKing

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #133 on: 10/28/2017 04:56 AM »
Have we known this yet?
Quote
ABS rescinded its last satellite order, ABS-8, after the U.S. Congress let the Export Import Bank’s charter expire, a political force majeure that botched a contract with Boeing. Ex-Im Bank reopened in December 2015, but still lacks a full board, and cannot finance projects over $10 million. ABS has yet to place a new order for ABS-8, but has described the cancellation as a blessing in disguise because of the announcement of ViaSat-3, against which Choi has said the original design for ABS-8 would have been uncompetitive.
http://spacenews.com/tom-choi-steps-down-from-abs-ceo-position/
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Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #134 on: 10/28/2017 12:11 PM »
Have we known this yet?
Quote
ABS rescinded its last satellite order, ABS-8, after the U.S. Congress let the Export Import Bank’s charter expire, a political force majeure that botched a contract with Boeing. Ex-Im Bank reopened in December 2015, but still lacks a full board, and cannot finance projects over $10 million. ABS has yet to place a new order for ABS-8, but has described the cancellation as a blessing in disguise because of the announcement of ViaSat-3, against which Choi has said the original design for ABS-8 would have been uncompetitive.
http://spacenews.com/tom-choi-steps-down-from-abs-ceo-position/

Yes, that happened quite a while ago.

Offline SmallKing

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #135 on: 10/30/2017 12:49 PM »
NSPO still hopes to launch Formosat-7 sats in May/June, 2018
https://www.inside.com.tw/2017/10/30/formosat-5-cmos-modify
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Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #136 on: 11/06/2017 06:41 AM »
Quote
The @AMOSSpacecom Amos-17 Ku-/C-/Ka-band sat completes CDR at @Boeing, sched launch to 17E in early 2019 on @SpaceX Falcon 9 w/ 19-yr life.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/927428797657313280

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #137 on: 11/08/2017 05:35 PM »
(found via tweet from Jeff Foust)

Quote
[Reuters] Turkey's Erdogan, Tesla's Musk discuss cooperation with Turkish firms
...
Turkey aims to launch the Turksat 5A satellite in 2020 and the 5B in 2021. In October, Airbus (AIR.PA) submitted the best bid in a tender to build the Turkish satellites.

Kalin said an agreement would be signed with Airbus on Thursday, and Musk would also be present at the meeting as a subcontractor.

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #138 on: 11/08/2017 07:48 PM »
Tweet from Emre Kelly:
Quote
I spy...Falcon 9 rockets with landing legs and...Turksat payloads? AP reported that Turksat 5A and 5B could fly in 2020 and 2021, respectively.

Photo (via @GettyImages) shows Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with @SpaceX CEO @ElonMusk today.

Hopefully we'll be adding some more flights to the manifest soon...

Offline Kryten

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #139 on: 11/09/2017 09:59 AM »
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/928575192275697665
Quote
As part of @AirbusSpace 2-satellite in-orbit delivery contract, Airbus gave customer @turksat launch options. @SpaceX was chosen for both Turksat 5A in 2020 & 5B in 2021. Shown below: 5B, w/ Ka-HTS.

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