Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5  (Read 268973 times)

Offline Salo

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #100 on: 10/15/2017 08:47 AM »
https://www.nasa.gov/launchschedule/
Quote
Date: June
Mission: TESS (Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite)

Offline smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #101 on: 10/15/2017 04:16 PM »
Here is a new "FPIP chart" for SpaceX.
This time, as we are well into 4th quarter, I shifted the window to include the 1Q 2018.
So, there are many new points on the chart and a lot of guesswork.
Therefore, I'd be grateful for any corrections/suggestions before I put the chart on the first page of this thread.

Once again, the purpose of this chart is not an attempt to predict, but to visualize the launch cadence in near future and possible schedule conflicts.

Couple specific questions:

We do know that SpaceX CAN do launches only 10-12 days apart on LC-39A. What do you think about Vandenberg's SLC-4E? It still has old style TEL (open type) - may this slow down the operation?

Is there any general clues on *specialization* of the Cape pads? All I know is that LC-39A will be used for all FH launches and all CCT-related launches. Any other clues would be helpful for the chart.
For example - if military launches will prefer SLC-40?
Also - will NASA prefer to use LC-39A for CRS flights?
« Last Edit: 10/15/2017 04:17 PM by smoliarm »

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #102 on: 10/15/2017 04:34 PM »
Here is a new "FPIP chart" for SpaceX.
This time, as we are well into 4th quarter, I shifted the window to include the 1Q 2018.
So, there are many new points on the chart and a lot of guesswork.
Therefore, I'd be grateful for any corrections/suggestions before I put the chart on the first page of this thread.

ORS-6 should be changed to SSO-A (I think that will launch a couple months later but not sure yet.)  SAOCOM-1A has slipped to June.  The Vandenberg schedule is going to be interesting in the first half of 2018 but I doubt they need to do rapid turnarounds.  I'd be surprised if they try a pace faster than 3 launches in two months at any point on the west coast next year.  It's highly unlikely that all of the flights we currently have listed for the first half of 2018 actually get launched in the first half of 2018.

At the Cape I would still put TESS in March.

SpaceX will still be constrained by launch vehicle availablility for much (all?) of 2018 so expect slips to the right on a lot of the flights.

Offline mn

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #103 on: 10/16/2017 03:20 PM »
Does anyone know,
Which one of Spaceflight flights is the one with Space IL, and what is the chance for that to launch on time for the Xprize?

Not seen anything since:
http://spacenews.com/spaceflight-to-launch-terra-bella-satellites-on-falcon-9-mission/
and
https://qz.com/962696/spaceil-the-israeli-team-competing-for-the-google-lunar-xprize-wont-make-it-to-the-starting-line/

Based on those, it appears to be a 'Spaceflight Industries' flight but not the Sun Synch Express flight and that won't be until 2018. So the chances look extremely slim unless the Xprize deadline is extended.

Here's the latest I can find on SpaceIL (this was published on September 17):

https://www.israel21c.org/spanish-firm-delivers-shell-for-spaceils-race-to-the-moon/

Quote
Teams at SpaceIL and IAI will now enter the assembly and integration phase. The launch is expected to take place in 2018 on a rocket from Elon Musk’s private space transport company, SpaceX


Offline almightycat

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Online Galactic Penguin SST

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #106 on: 10/18/2017 02:07 PM »
SpaceX has been contracted to launch Amos-17 and Amos-8 in Q2 2019 and H2 2020: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-com-spacex-satellite/spacex-spacecom-to-launch-new-satellites-after-explosion-last-year-idUSKBN1CN1FD

Something of note:
- AMOS-17, ordered from Boeing, is the replacement satellite for AMOS-5 (built by the Russians and failed after less than 4 years in service)
- As late as this July the decision of whether to build AMOS-8 inside house by IAI or to order it aboard has yet to be decided!
« Last Edit: 10/18/2017 02:09 PM by Galactic Penguin SST »
Chinese spaceflight is a cosmic riddle wrapped in a galactic mystery inside an orbital enigma... - (not) Winston Churchill

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #107 on: 10/18/2017 02:13 PM »
SpaceX has been contracted to launch Amos-17 and Amos-8 in Q2 2019 and H2 2020: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-com-spacex-satellite/spacex-spacecom-to-launch-new-satellites-after-explosion-last-year-idUSKBN1CN1FD

And the other thing of note, the Amos-17 launch is free to make up for the Amos-6 failure.

Offline jpo234

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #108 on: 10/18/2017 02:16 PM »
SpaceX has been contracted to launch Amos-17 and Amos-8 in Q2 2019 and H2 2020: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-com-spacex-satellite/spacex-spacecom-to-launch-new-satellites-after-explosion-last-year-idUSKBN1CN1FD

With 2018 already full beyond the 30 missions Elon suggested at IAC, the 2019 manifest starts to fill up.

You want to be inspired by things. You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great. That's what being a spacefaring civilization is all about. It's about believing in the future and believing the future will be better than the past. And I can't think of anything more exciting than being out there among the stars.

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #109 on: 10/18/2017 02:19 PM »
I'm not sure 2018 is beyond 30 missions yet, I think I'm going to remove the Spaceflight Industries entries after SSO-A until we hear whether/when those are actually booked.  When the GPS satellite will launch is also kinda uncertain right now.
« Last Edit: 10/18/2017 02:19 PM by gongora »

Offline jpo234

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #110 on: 10/18/2017 02:20 PM »
SpaceX has been contracted to launch Amos-17 and Amos-8 in Q2 2019 and H2 2020: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-com-spacex-satellite/spacex-spacecom-to-launch-new-satellites-after-explosion-last-year-idUSKBN1CN1FD

And the other thing of note, the Amos-17 launch is free to make up for the Amos-6 failure.

They got the AMOS-6 launch for $50 mln.

Quote
Spacecom was an early customer for SpaceX with Amos-6, and paid about $50 million for the launch.
You want to be inspired by things. You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great. That's what being a spacefaring civilization is all about. It's about believing in the future and believing the future will be better than the past. And I can't think of anything more exciting than being out there among the stars.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #111 on: 10/18/2017 03:31 PM »
Something I can't see in the reuters write-up (my emphasis):

Quote
Jeff Foust‏ @jeff_foust 31m31 minutes ago

If the Google translation is correct, Amos 17 will launcher free under the contract for the lost Amos 6 satellite, with a reused 1st stage.

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/920664676068884480

The Spacecom press release (in Hebrew) is attached for anyone who can read it.

Offline docmordrid

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #112 on: 10/18/2017 03:54 PM »
Hmmmm.....in an article about the ZUMA launch

http://www.popularmechanics.com/space/rockets/news/a28661/spacex-mystery-launch-november-2017/

Quote
>
It's also possible that SpaceX's last mission of the year, the Spanish communications satellite Hispasat, could fly on the inaugural launch of the Falcon Heavy rocket.
>
DM

Online abaddon

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #113 on: 10/18/2017 04:07 PM »
I'd take that with a huge grain of salt...

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #114 on: 10/18/2017 04:32 PM »
Popular Mechanics is not a credible source for our manifest information.

Online envy887

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #115 on: 10/18/2017 04:36 PM »
Something I can't see in the reuters write-up (my emphasis):

Quote
Jeff Foust‏ @jeff_foust 31m31 minutes ago

If the Google translation is correct, Amos 17 will launcher free under the contract for the lost Amos 6 satellite, with a reused 1st stage.

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/920664676068884480

The Spacecom press release (in Hebrew) is attached for anyone who can read it.

For what it's worth, the Google translation of the press release specifies both the free launch and the used stage quite clearly (emphasis mine):

Quote
2. Consideration of the launch services
The consideration paid under the Amos 6 satellite launch agreement prior to the amendment will be recorded In full for a Amos 17 launch and no additional charge will be required for the Amos 17 launch.

3. Conditions for launch
1.3 Conditions have been agreed with regard to scheduling the launch and priorities in various cases. They were also arranged Conditions enabling the launch of the satellite using a Falcon 9 launcher that includes the first stage flown Previously.


Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #116 on: 10/19/2017 12:17 PM »
So Iridium NEXT-4 now NET Dec 22 on a flight proven booster (possibly 1036.2 but not confirmed):

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2017/10/iridium-4-flight-proven-falcon-9-rtls-vandenberg-delayed/

Offline Rebel44

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #117 on: 10/19/2017 08:15 PM »
SpaceX has won a contract to launch the Jason-CS ocean science mission (aka Sentinel-6A) on an Falcon 9 in Nov 2020

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/921106460964196352
https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-awards-launch-services-contract-for-sentinel-6a-mission

Offline dror

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #118 on: 10/19/2017 08:33 PM »
Something I can't see in the reuters write-up (my emphasis):

Quote
Jeff Foust‏ @jeff_foust 31m31 minutes ago

If the Google translation is correct, Amos 17 will launcher free under the contract for the lost Amos 6 satellite, with a reused 1st stage.

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/920664676068884480

The Spacecom press release (in Hebrew) is attached for anyone who can read it.

For what it's worth, the Google translation of the press release specifies both the free launch and the used stage quite clearly (emphasis mine):

Quote
2. Consideration of the launch services
The consideration paid under the Amos 6 satellite launch agreement prior to the amendment will be recorded In full for a Amos 17 launch and no additional charge will be required for the Amos 17 launch.

3. Conditions for launch
1.3 Conditions have been agreed with regard to scheduling the launch and priorities in various cases. They were also arranged Conditions enabling the launch of the satellite using a Falcon 9 launcher that includes the first stage flown Previously.

Yes, that's what it says.
Google translate, like Jim, is usually right.
"If we crave some cosmic purpose, then let us find ourselves a worthy goal. "
Carl Sagan, Pale Blue Dot

Online vaporcobra

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #119 on: 10/20/2017 08:48 PM »
I can't remember if anyone has already identified it, but new filings were posted today for for Mission 1381, operations to begin NET November 28th from LC-40.

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80703

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80700

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