Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5  (Read 79462 times)

Online gongora

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SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« on: 07/15/2017 02:45 AM »
Discussion of the manifest, and updates. The best guess at the current manifest is in this post. 
Discussion of the table format should be done here: SpaceX Manifest Table Format Discussion
Prior thread: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4

Sites:
      C=the Cape (KSC/CCAFS) (UTC-4 EDT,UTC-5 EST)
            CCAFS SLC-40: Damaged by vehicle explosion (no launches until around October 2017, no earlier than September)
            KSC LC-39A: Active for F9, will need further work for FH and Commercial Crew
      V=Vandenberg (UTC-7 PDT,UTC-8 PST)
            SLC-4E: Active for F9
      B=Boca Chica (UTC-5 CDT,UTC-6 CST)
            Site preparation work underway

U.S. daylight saving time starts second Sunday in March, ends first Sunday in November, time changes at 2:00 a.m. local time

       Local        LV  Core   Ret- .                             .    Mass   .     Mis-
Est. Date,  Time/UTC.   S/N    urn  Payload(s)                    Orb  (kg)   Site sion
------------------- --- ------ ---  ----------------------------  ---  -----  -----  ----
2017-01-14  0954/-8F91029.1SIridium NEXT (Flight 1)PLR9600V-4E30
2017-02-19  0939/-5F91031.1LCRS SpX-10LEO~10kC-39A31
2017-03-16  0200/-4F91030XEchostar 23GTO~5500C-39A32
2017-03-30  1827/-4F91021.2SSES-10GTO5282C-39A33
2017-05-01  0715/-4F91032LNROL-76LEO?C-39A34
2017-05-15  1921/-4F91034XInmarsat 5 F4GTO6086C-39A35
2017-06-03  1707/-4F91035.1LCRS SpX-11LEO~10kC-39A36
2017-06-23  1510/-4F91029.2SBulgariaSat-1GTO3669C-39A37
2017-06-25  1325/-7F91036.1SIridium NEXT (Flight 2)PLR9600V-4E38
2017-07-05  1938/-4F91037XIntelsat 35eGTO6761C-39A39
2017-08-14  1231/-4F91039LCRS SpX-12LEO~10kC-39A40
2017-08-24  1151/-7F91038SFORMOSAT-5SSO475V-4E41
2017-09-07  1000/-4F91040LAir Force X-37B OTV-5LEO5400C-39A42
2017-10-09  0537/-7F91041SIridium NEXT (Flight 3)PLR9600V-4E43
2017-10-11  1853/-4F91031.2SSES-11/Echostar 105GTO5200C-39A44
2017-10-30  1534/-4F91042SKoreasat-5AGTO3700C-39A45
2017-12-15  1036/-5F91035.2LCRS SpX-13LEO~10kC-4046
------------------- --- ------ ---  ----------------------------  ---  -----  ----- ----
2017-12-22*1732/-8F91036.2SIridium NEXT (Flight 4)PLR9600V-4E47
2018-01-04  2000/-5F91043LZumaLEO?C-4048
2018-early (NET)H.LLSFalcon Heavy Demo Flight..C-39A(50)
2018-01-30  1623/-5F9.SGovSat-1 (SES-16)GTO4000C.
2018-01-30F9..PAZ & (Microsat 2a/2b?)SSO1400V-4E.
2018-H1F9.XHispasat 1F (30W-6)GTO6092C.
2018-03-13F9.LCRS SpX-14LEO~10kC.
2018-03F9N.BangabandhuGTO~3500C.
2018-Q1F9R?Iridium NEXT (Flight 5)PLR9600V-4E.
2018-Q1F9.SSES-12GTO5300C.
2018-03-20F9N.NASA (TESS)HEO325C .
2018-03-21  1843/-7F9N.Iridium NEXT 6/GRACE-FOPLR~6kV-4E.
2018-04F9.?CCtCap DM1LEO.C-39A.
2018-Q2F9.?Telstar 18 Vantage/Apstar-5CGTO>5400C.
2018-Q2F9.?Telstar 19 VantageGTO>5400C.
2018-04F9..Spaceflight SSO-A (575km)SSO.V-4E.
2018-05 (NET)F9..USAF GPS III-1MEO3880C.
2018-05 (NET)F9..Telkom 4GTO.C.
2018-midH.LLSSTP-2 (US Air Force)MEO~8k?C-39A.
2018-Q2F9..Iridium NEXT (Flight 7)PLR9600V-4E.
2018-06-06F9.LCRS SpX-15LEO~10kC.
2018-06F9..Iridium NEXT (Flight 8)PLR9600V-4E.
2018-06F9.?SAOCOM 1ASSO2800V-4E.
2018-H1F9.SEs'hail 2GTO~3kC.
2018-midF9..CCiCap In-Flight Abort TestSUB.CN/A
2018H..Arabsat 6AGTO~6kC-39A.
2018F9.?PSN-6 and co-passengerGTO5000C.
2018-08F9.LCRS SpX-16LEO~10kC.
2018-08F9..CCtCap DM2 (Crew)LEO.C-39A.
2018-Q3F9R.RADARSAT ConstellationSSO~4.5kV-4E.
2018F9..OHB SARah 1SSO~2200V-4E.
2018-10F9.LCRS SpX-17LEO~10kC.
2018-Q4 (NET)F9..Spaceflight GTO (200x60k/km)GTO.C(70)
2018-12F9.LCRS SpX-18LEO~10kC.
2019F9..GiSat-1GTO~6kC.
2019 (NET)H.???SpaceX Crewed CircumlunarTLI~10k?C-39A.
2019F9..CRS SpX-19-20LEO.C.
2019-02F9..USAF GPS III-3?MEO3880C.
2019-Q2F9R.AMOS-17GTO5500C(81)
2019F9..SAOCOM 1B and companionsSSO~3-4kV-4E.
2019F9..OHB SARah 2/3SSO~3600V-4E .
2019-H2F9..JCSAT-18/Kacific-1GTO~6k+C.
2019F9..SiriusXM SXM-7GTO.C(80)
2020F9..SiriusXM SXM-8GTO.C(80)
2020F9..Türksat 5AGTO3500C.
2020-H2F9..AMOS-8GTO.C(81)
2020-11F9..Sentinel-6 (Jason-CS)LEO1440V-4E.
2020-2021H..ViaSat 3-Americas or 3-EMEAGTO6400C(85)
2021F9..Türksat 5BGTO4500C.
2021-04F9..SWOTLEO2000V-4E.
2022 (NET)BFR..MarsTMI.?.
TBD (2019-2024)F9..Commercial Crew (6 flights)LEO.C-39A.
TBD (2020-2024)F9..CRS-2 (6+ flights)LEO.C.
NET 2018-Q4F9..Spaceflight SSO-B (500km)SSO.V-4E(70)
NET 2019-Q4F9..Spaceflight GTO(200x36k/km)GTO.C(70)
NET 2020F9..Spaceflight SSO-C (500km SSO)SSO.V-4E(70)
Companies that appear to have contracts for unspecified payloads: Eutelsat, Inmarsat (x2?), Bigelow

Date: *=Local date differs from UTC date
Return: L=Land,S=Sea,X=Expendable,N/A=Not Applicable
Launch Vehicle: F9=Falcon 9, H=Falcon Heavy, F=Falcon 9 or Heavy
Core: FH core numbers in footnotes, N=New, R=Reused
Mission: Blue number indicates additional information in footnotes.
Colors: Successful / Unsuccessful / Mars!!!! / Footnotes

NOTES:
(50) FH Demo - Serial Numbers: Center:1033  Side1:1023.2  Side2: 1025.2
(70) Spaceflight Industries : Upcoming Spaceflight Ind. schedule update
(80) Sirius SXM-7, SXM-8 : SSL Contract Press Release / Gunter
(81) Spacecom Amos-17, Amos-8 SpaceNews
(85) Viasat 3 : one of first two Viasat 3 birds in mid-2019 or early-2020.  Also third Viasat 3 if it gets built?
  ViaSatellite 2/10/16 SpaceNews 2/10/2016 Gunter

Possible future payloads:

Competitions for future payloads:
Air Force - EELV, First 5 / Phase 1A-6

L2 notes on manifest:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44432.msg1758806#msg1758806

Upcoming Mars Launch Windows: 2020-06, 2022-08, 2024-09, 2026-11, 2029-01

L2 SpaceX CRS External Cargo
L2 Level SpaceX Falcon 9 Stage Watch / Public Core Spotting
SpaceX Launch Log (past launches) / Wikipedia Falcon Launches
Viewing flights from Vandenberg / Ben Cooper's Viewing Guide for Cape Canaveral
Upcoming SpaceX Talks / General Industry Talks
SpaceX Falcon Mission Simulations
SpaceX Eastern Range Landing Facilities


Recent Edits:
Dec 14  Moved Telkom 4 from August 2018 to NET May 2018.
Dec 12  The May 2018 GPS mission changed from GPS III-2 to GPS III-1
Nov 24  Moved Bangabandhu from February to March
Nov 12  Moving Hispasat 30W-6 to first half of 2018 as there is much uncertainly about the launch date.
Nov 09  Adding Türksat 5A in 2020 and Türksat 5B in 2021
Oct 19  Moving Iridium NEXT Flight 4 to Dec 22 from late November.  Adding Sentinel-6A in November 2020.
Oct 18  Adding Amos-17 in Q2-2019 and Amos-8 in H2-2020.  Putting most of the Spaceflight Industries flights down in the TBD list at the end until we have a better idea when they will actually fly.  Moved GiSat-1 from 2018-Q4 to 2019.
Oct 14  Added Mystery Payload Codename Zuma in mid-November (this was formerly listed as unknown Northrop Grumman)
Oct 09  PAZ moved to Jan 30 from December.

All comments and updates are welcomed!  Thank you to all contributors!
« Last Edit: Today at 01:17 PM by gongora »

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #1 on: 07/15/2017 02:45 AM »
Previous Missions

       Local        LV  Core   Ret- .                             .    Mass   .     Mis-
Est. Date,  Time/UTC.   S/N    urn  Payload(s)                    Orb  (kg)   Site sion
------------------- --- ------ ---  ----------------------------  ---  -----  -----  ----
2010-06-04  1445/-4F9..Dragon Qual UnitLEO~6kC-401
2010-12-08  1043/-5F9..Dragon C1LEO~8kC-402
-
2012-05-22  0344/-4F9..Dragon C2LEO~8kC-403
2012-10-07*2035/-4F9..CRS SpX-1LEO~8kC-404
-
2013-03-01  1010/-5F9..CRS SpX-2LEO~9kC-405
2013-09-29  0900/-7F9..CassiopePLR500V-4E6
2013-12-03  1741/-5F9..SES-8GTO3183C-407
-
2014-01-06  1706/-5F9..Thaicom 6GTO3016C-408
2014-04-18  1525/-4F9..CRS SpX-3LEO~10kC-409
2014-07-14  1115/-4F9..Orbcomm OG2 Flight 1LEO1-2kC-4010
2014-08-05  0400/-4F9..Asiasat 8GTO4535C-4011
2014-09-07  0100/-4F9..Asiasat 6GTO4428C-4012
2014-09-21  0152/-4F9..CRS SpX-4LEO~10kC-4013
-
2015-01-10  0447/-5F9.SCRS SpX-5LEO~10kC-4014
2015-02-11  1803/-5F9..DSCOVREEO570C-4015
2015-03-01*2250/-5F9..Eutelsat 115WB/ABS 3AGTO4159C-4016
2015-04-14  1610/-4F9.SCRS SpX-6LEO~10kC-4017
2015-04-27  1903/-4F9..TürkmenÄlem 52E/MonacoSATGTO4707C-4018
2015-06-28  1021/-4F9.N/ACRS SpX-7 (failed)LEO~10kC-4019
2015-12-21  2029/-5F91019LORBCOMM OG2 Launch 2LEO1892C-4020
-
2016-01-17  1042/-8F9.SJason-3LEO553V-4E21
2016-03-04  1835/-5F9.SSES-9GTO5271C-4022
2016-04-08  1643/-4F91021.1SCRS SpX-8LEO~10kC-4023
2016-05-06  0121/-4F91022SJCSAT-14GTO4696C-4024
2016-05-27  1740/-4F91023.1SThaicom 8GTO3025C-4025
2016-06-15  1029/-4F9.SEutelsat 117W B & ABS-2AGTO4200C-4026
2016-07-18  0045/-4F9.LCRS SpX-9LEO~10kC-4027
2016-08-14  0126/-4F9.SJCSAT-16GTO~4600C-4028
2016-09-01  0907/-4F9.N/AAMOS-6(destroyed in pad test)GTO5500C-4029

« Last Edit: 12/10/2017 08:15 PM by gongora »

Offline smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #2 on: 07/20/2017 12:32 PM »
[Moderator Note:  This chart is maintained by a different person than the table in the first post, so they may be slightly out of sync.  Discussion of the chart format should take place in the SpaceX Manifest Table Format Discussion thread.]

Disclaimer:
1. This chart is based on information from open sources only. Therefore, it has a lot of guesswork.
2. I fully realize that most of actual dates and even launch order will turn out quite different, but prediction is not the purpose. The purpose of the chart is to visualize “launch density” and possible scheduling conflicts for Cape and Vandenberg.
I’ll update this chart as new scheduling information becomes available, however, some time-gap between this chart and the above schedule table is inevitable (will try to minimize it :) )

Notes for the chart (permanent ones)
Vertical scale:
Shows three pads operated by SpaceX at two ranges – Vandenberg and Cape Canaveral – enclosed in dotted grey lines.
Horizontal scale is approximate because I just divided year into 12 equal periods, therefore tick-marks are not exactly on the 1st of the month.
Launch marks:
SpaceX launches are blue circles. Blue crosses show the dates of successful Static Fire tests for the past launches and the one already scheduled for the next launch. Bright blue labels denote government launches (NASA, NRO, and USAF).
Red circles represent all other launches (ULA and Orbital ATK) from any pads of these two ranges.
Vertical green line shows the date for a particular version of the chart.

------------------------------------------
Note for particular chart (as of July 28, 2017).
Basically just one thing: the Oct-Dec schedule for Cape is pretty tight.
The launch cadence is similar to May-June, but there is a difference - in May-June SpaceX had Eastern Range all for themselves, there were no flights by ULA in this period.  Here they have three launches for Oct-Dec, and all satellites are for military.
------------------------------------------
Note for update of Aug 16 2017:
Two ULA launches moved to 2018 (pale-dotted marks show their old launch dates).
So for Oct-Dec, SpaceX is the only user of Eastern Range.
------------------------------------------
Note for Oct 22 2017 update:
For some cases I have number of days between launches with (?) mark.
It means that this gap appears too short by some reasons.
« Last Edit: 11/14/2017 11:28 AM by smoliarm »

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #3 on: 07/21/2017 07:45 PM »
Useful links related to keeping track of manifest and scheduling stuff for SpaceX and the launch industry in general.

NSF Manifest Threads:
   U.S. / SpaceX / Russian / Arianespace / Japanese / Chinese / Indian / Israeli / Iranian / Suborbital / Consolidated

NASA:
   NASA Office of Safety & Mission Assurance's planning schedules for Safety & Mission Success Reviews (last Sep 21 short-term, Sep 21 long-term)
   NASA ASAP Meeting Minutes (last Oct. 5)
   NASA Advisory Council HEO Committee (next Nov 29-30)
   ISS On-Orbit Status Report
   Upcoming ELaNA Cubesat Launches
   Space Station Research Experiments

Annual Reports:
   Satellite Industry Association's annual "State of Satellite Industry"
   FAA Annual Compendiums of Commercial Space Transportation
   GAO Annual Assessment of NASA Large Scale Programs

Satellite Constellations Under Development:
   FCC NGSO Constellation filings (Nov 2016/Mar 2017)
   SpaceX - now a satellite vendor?
   SpaceX FCC filing for a 4425 satellite constellation providing Internet service
   OneWeb constellation (+900 sats) to be built by Airbus
   Boeing constellation

Regulatory Agencies:
   FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation
      FAA Active Commercial Launch Licenses
   FCC IBFS (Commercial Satellites and Ground Stations)
   FCC OET Experimental Licensing System (Experimental permits, launch/landing comms)
   NOAA CRSRA Licensing

Contracting:
   DoD Contracts

Launch Sites:
   Patrick AFB Weather (Cape Canaveral)

Misc:
   Commercial Space Index Thread
   FISO Telecon Archive Index
   SpacePolicyOnline.com (good events schedule for space meetings/conferences/hearings)

CCtCap:
   SpaceX CCtCAP Milestones
   Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
   Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
   Commercial Crew providers making "significant progress" toward first flights
   Dragon 2 (Thread 2)




Past schedule edits:
2017
Oct 05  SES-11 delayed to Oct. 11.  Bangabandhu-1 delayed to February from December.  GovSat/SES-16 delayed to January from December.  DM-1 moved to April 2018 from February, DM-2 moved to August 2018 from June, In-Flight Abort presumed to be between them in mid-2018.
Oct 01  Koreasat 5A set for Oct. 30, CRS-13 set for Nov. 28
Sep 28 Moved SSO-A from 2018-02 to 2018-Q2
Sep 11 Move SAOCOM-1A from March to June 2018
Sep 06 Added Sirius SXM-7 in 2019, SXM-8 in 2020.  Removed line items for Eutelsat and Inmarsat, added list at the end for customers with unspecified contracts.
Sep 04 Added Kacific-1/JCSat-18 in second half of 2019
Aug 31 Telkom 4 moved from June to August 2018
Aug 28 SES-14 switched to Ariane 5 launch.  SES-12 switched to F9 launch Q1-2018.
Aug 25 Moved Iridium Flight 3 to October 4.
Aug 23 Removed Spaceflight Industries GTO-1, SSO-D
Aug 22 GRACE-FO March 21, 2018.  CRS-14 late January 2018?, CRS-15 June 2018.
Aug 13 Moved CRS-13 to early December
Jul 28  Moved Iridium 4 to late November, Iridium 5 to Q1-2018, SES-11 to October
Jul 26  Moved OTV-5 to September, Telstar 18V & 19V to Q2-2018
Jul 22  Moved SES-16 to December 2017
Jul 21  Moved CRS-12 to August 14.  Moved DM-1 to February 2018.
Jul 19  Removed Red Dragon
Jul 11  Moved SAOCOM-1A to March 2018, SAOCOM-1B to 2019, removed specific months from future Iridium flights
Jun 30  Moved SES-14 to 2018-Q1
Jun 28  Moved OTV-5 to August 28.
Jun 27  Removed exact date from OTV-5.  Moved Formosat-5 to August 24.  Moved Iridium Flight 3 to September.  Moved SES-11 to September.  Moved Koreasat-5A to Q4.  Moved PSN-6 to mid-2018.  Moved Intelsat 35e to July 2.  Removed ViaSat-3 Asia.  Marked Iridium Flight 2 complete.
Jun 23  Moved CRS-12 to Aug 10.  Marked BulgariaSat 1 complete.
Jun 22  Moved Arabsat 6A before STP-2, both early/H1 2018
Jun 17  OTV-5 August 17.  Changed table format, now being maintained by gongora.
Jun 06  Slipped Bulgariasat 2 days.  Added X-37B in August 2017
Jun 05  Marked CRS-11 successful.  Removed speculative Mars mission dates.
Jun 02  Removed Eutelsat Quantum
May 25  Moved Iridium Flight 2 to June 25 (1325 PDT).  Moved Intelsat 35e to July 1.
May 24  Moved Koreasat-5A to August (educated guess), CCiCap In-Flight Abort to 2018
         removed estimated launch month from FH Demo and STP-2
May 23  Moved Eutelsat Quantum to 2019
May 21  Added Telkom 4, June 2018
May 20  Moved CCtCap DM-1 to March 2018
May 17  Moved PSN-6 to 2018
May 14  updated masses (Telstar, Es'hail-2, Hispasat, GiSat) and core numbers for multiple missions 
May 04  Moved SSO-A to 2018
« Last Edit: 11/29/2017 10:05 PM by gongora »

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #4 on: 07/21/2017 11:40 PM »
Thanks for the illuminating schedule chart.


Offline Jakusb

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SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #5 on: 07/22/2017 07:06 AM »
https://twitter.com/govsatlu/status/888375632584900608

GovSat-1 launch expected for December 2017 #GovSat1 #satellite #Luxembourg #Europe #Defence 100komma7.lu/article/aktual…

Edit: added the tweet contents. Just realized that Tapatalk now automatically displays tweets from just the link alone, but the forum (accessed directly) does not..

Text from related 21 juli article:
De Satellit GovSat-1 dierft mat liichtem Retard lancéiert ginn. Den initiale Plang war e Lancement am Oktober. Vun der privater US-Entreprise SpaceX hätt een elo eng Zäitfënster confirméiert kritt. A priori fir Dezember, sou de Generaldirekter vu LuxGovSat Patrick Biewer. Enn 2017, respektiv Ufank 2018 soll de Betrib vum sougenannte Militär-Satellit kënnen ufänken

So SpaceX gave LuxGovSat CEO Patrick Biewer notice the launch is now planned for December
« Last Edit: 07/22/2017 09:27 AM by Jakusb »

Offline Jakusb

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SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #6 on: 07/22/2017 10:21 PM »
Lol!
https://twitter.com/iridiumboss/status/888884565468688385

Me:
Any chance you will start using flight proven boosters for coming launches?
IridiumBoss:
Sure, there is always a chance...
« Last Edit: 07/22/2017 10:21 PM by Jakusb »

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #7 on: 07/26/2017 06:26 PM »
Possible change in X-37B date:

Quote
Changes to Eastern Range launch schedule: SpaceX CRS-12 now no earlier than 8/14; SpaceX X-37B NET 9/7; ULA NROL-52 NET 9/25.

https://twitter.com/emrekelly/status/890273595166949377

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #8 on: 07/26/2017 09:41 PM »
[SpaceNews] Telesat says low latency led to LEO constellation
Quote
Telesat does have two GEO-HTS satellites under construction, Telstar-18 Vantage and Telstar-19 Vantage, from Space Systems Loral of Palo Alto, California. Those are scheduled to launch in the second quarter of 2018, Goldberg said. Both are launching on SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets. Telstar-18 Vantage, which Hong Kong-based APT Satellite is co-financing in exchange for capacity on the satellite, targets the Asia Pacific; Telstar 19 Vantage covers the Americas.

Offline OnWithTheShow

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #9 on: 07/27/2017 12:54 PM »
Quote
Peter B. de Selding‏ @pbdes

Next @IridiumComm launch by @SpaceX is set for Sept. 30 from VAFB, Iridium says.

Online Comga

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What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online Chris Bergin

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #11 on: 07/28/2017 02:12 PM »
Iridium Announces Third Iridium® NEXT Launch Date

MCLEAN, Va. – July 28, 2017 - Iridium Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: IRDM) announced today that the upcoming Iridium NEXT launch has been targeted for September 30, 2017 at 6:30 a.m. PDT. This launch will deliver another 10 Iridium NEXT satellites to orbit on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket and will bring the total number of Iridium NEXT satellites deployed to 30. SpaceX selected the September 30th launch date based on rocket and Vandenberg Air Force Base range availability. SpaceX’s targeted launch schedule accommodates completion of the Iridium NEXT constellation as planned in mid-2018. In total, SpaceX will deliver 75 Iridium NEXT satellites to orbit. In case of inclement weather, a backup launch date has been scheduled for October 1.

Unlike previous launches where some Iridium NEXT satellites were sent drifting to an orbital plane different from where they were launched, all 10 satellites for this launch are currently planned to provide service in orbital plane four. The Iridium constellation’s unique architecture is designed with six polar orbiting planes consisting of 11 interconnected satellites per plane, with in-orbit spares, creating a true web of connectivity around the planet.

SpaceX has scheduled the fourth launch to take place in late November. Iridium NEXT manufacturing has completed enough satellites for nearly the next three SpaceX launches. All Iridium NEXT launches take place from SpaceX’s West Coast launch facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.

Iridium NEXT is the company’s $3 billion next-generation mobile, global satellite network scheduled for completion in 2018. Iridium NEXT will replace the company’s

existing global constellation in one of the largest technology upgrades ever completed in space. It represents the evolution of critical communications infrastructure that governments and organizations worldwide rely upon to drive business, enable connectivity, empower disaster relief efforts and more. Iridium NEXT will enable and introduce new services like the company’s next-generation communications platform, Iridium CertusSM, and the AireonSM space-based ADS-B aircraft surveillance and flight tracking network. The Iridium NEXT satellites are manufactured by Thales Alenia Space and assembled by its subcontractor, Orbital ATK, at its facility in Gilbert, Arizona.

For more information about Iridium NEXT, please visit www.IridiumNEXT.com.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #12 on: 07/28/2017 05:15 PM »
SES-11 may have slipped to October?  SES quarterly earning statement was released today.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #13 on: 07/28/2017 05:40 PM »
SES-11 may have slipped to October? 

If so, SES-11 may now be the first flight from pad 40 after its reactivation.

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #14 on: 07/28/2017 05:47 PM »
SES-11 may have slipped to October? 

If so, SES-11 may now be the first flight from pad 40 after its reactivation.

That's fitting because SES-11 was supposed to be the first 39A launch after it was finished, pre-AMOS 6
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #15 on: 08/02/2017 05:27 PM »
A good place for this per the SpaceX side:
Eastern Range ready to return with two key launches after stand down - by Chris Gebhardt

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2017/08/eastern-range-return-two-key-launches-stand-down/

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #16 on: 08/03/2017 04:29 PM »
My current guess for matching FCC permits to future SpaceX missions (a very inexact science):

[Payload (FCC Mission #) - Location, Landing Method]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CRS-12 (CRS-12) - Florida, RTLS
Formosat 5 (1344) - California, ASDS
OTV-5 (1348) - Florida, RTLS
SES-11 (1334) - Florida, ASDS
Iridium Flight 3 (1339) - California, ASDS
Koreasat-5A (1370) - Florida, permit is for either RTLS or ASDS
CRS-13 (not filed yet)
Hispasat 30W-6 (1387) - Florida, Expendable

« Last Edit: 08/03/2017 04:32 PM by gongora »

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #17 on: 08/04/2017 09:13 AM »
SES-11 (1334) - Florida, ASDS
FCC M1334 should be already used for BulgariaSat-1 mission

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #19 on: 08/09/2017 06:45 PM »
Quote
Launch of @EchoStar-105/@SES_Satellites-11 C/Ku/Ka-band sat on @SpaceX Falcon 9 now scheduled for "early 4th quarter," EchoStar says.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/895353459347570688

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #20 on: 08/16/2017 04:22 PM »
Tweet from Emre Kelly:
Quote
Launch schedule updated: SpaceX #CRS13 targeted for 12/17; SpaceX #SES11 later this year, likely 9/17 or 10/17

SES and Echostar have both listed the SES-11 launch as 4Q, so probably October.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #21 on: 08/16/2017 08:33 PM »
I don't recall seeing this Reddit post linked here yet, someone went to a conference where Spaceflight Industries was speaking and got a picture of their upcoming launch schedule.  It has their currently intended dates for the Falcon 9 dedicated missions, as well as rideshares on Falcon, Soyuz, PSLV, Minotaur C, Electron, VEGA.  There are also some notes on SHERPA and SpaceIL, and whether Dream Chaser could fly on a Falcon 9.

r/SpaceX user Swinusoidal: Spaceflight Manifest Shows 7 Dedicated F9 Launches Through 2020 In The Works - 4 SSO, 3 GTO

The dedicated SpaceX flights:
2017-Q4             F9           SSO-A (575km SSO 10:30 LTDN)
2018-Q4             F9           SSO-B (500km SSO 10:30 LTDN)
2018-H2             F9           GTO-1 (200x35786km ~27.5deg)
2018-H2             F9           GTO-2 (200x60000km ~27.5deg)
2019-H2             F9           SSO-C (500km SSO 10:30 LTDN)
2020-H1             F9           GTO-C (200x35786km ~27.5deg)
2020-H1             F9           SSO-D (500km SSO 10:30 LTDN)


We had heard previously that Spaceflight Industries intended to fly at least 4 Falcon 9 missions to various orbits, so the later ones in this list may or may not be under contract yet.

We saw this list from a Spaceflight Inc. presentation back in March.  I looked at the current list of flights on their web site and tried to match up the flights.  Not too surprisingly, they don't all seem to be there.  What they currently have on their web site for SSO/GTO flights from the U.S. are:
SSO Q1-2018 (presumably SSO-A)
GTO Q4-2018 (supersync 60k apogee, they also have a foreign flight to same, so GTO-1 from the list above is missing)
SSO Q4-2018 (500-525k, could be SSO-B)
GTO Q4-2019 (35,786km apogee)

Based on the current contents of their web site, I'm thinking I'll remove the flights we have as GTO-1 and SSO-D from our manifest, move GTO-C to Q4-2019, move SSO-C to 2020?

If anyone sees another Spaceflight presentation at a conference, please share any schedule updates you find.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #22 on: 08/17/2017 04:02 PM »
SpaceX filed an FCC permit application for a launch with ASDS landing from SLC-40, NET 10/14 (these permit dates are very much NET).  The mission number (1373) doesn't match any of the previous permits they've received for flights from LC-39A, so I don't know if this is really a different payload or they used a different mission number to move a payload from LC-39A to SLC-40.

There are a couple permits granted for flights from LC-39A that I assume will move to SLC-40.  Does anyone know if they'd need to file for new permits, or amend the existing permits, and would we actually see any amendments to the existing permits?

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #23 on: 08/18/2017 12:11 PM »
SpaceX filed an FCC permit application for a launch with ASDS landing from SLC-40, NET 10/14 (these permit dates are very much NET).  The mission number (1373) doesn't match any of the previous permits they've received for flights from LC-39A, so I don't know if this is really a different payload or they used a different mission number to move a payload from LC-39A to SLC-40.

There are a couple permits granted for flights from LC-39A that I assume will move to SLC-40.  Does anyone know if they'd need to file for new permits, or amend the existing permits, and would we actually see any amendments to the existing permits?

As far as I know they can amend the permits, but it would probably have to be re-approved.

M1373 could be KoreaSat-5A as October falls into Q4.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #24 on: 08/19/2017 01:47 PM »
This thread lists the 5th Iridium Next flight as Q1 18, which makes sense to me as ~2 months from the late Nov fourth flight that Iridium has already announced.

However, the Western range schedule in the latest news article still shows an Iridium flight in December:

Article for the Static Fire (and more) by Chris Gebhardt:
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2017/08/spacex-static-fire-formosat-5-falcon-9-asds-landing/

I assume the article is just quoting the placeholder previously given, in the absence of any announcement yet of the fifth flight's schedule?

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #25 on: 08/19/2017 04:50 PM »
This thread lists the 5th Iridium Next flight as Q1 18, which makes sense to me as ~2 months from the late Nov fourth flight that Iridium has already announced.

However, the Western range schedule in the latest news article still shows an Iridium flight in December:

Article for the Static Fire (and more) by Chris Gebhardt:
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2017/08/spacex-static-fire-formosat-5-falcon-9-asds-landing/

I assume the article is just quoting the placeholder previously given, in the absence of any announcement yet of the fifth flight's schedule?

The article says NET December, which isn't quite the same as showing an Iridium flight in December  :)  For this manifest I'm assuming they will be at least 6 weeks apart, so late November would be followed by January.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #26 on: 08/22/2017 03:42 AM »
Does anyone know,
Which one of Spaceflight flights is the one with Space IL, and what is the chance for that to launch on time for the Xprize?
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #27 on: 08/22/2017 01:02 PM »
            CCAFS SLC-40: Damaged by vehicle explosion (no launches until around August 2017)

Should this be updated to 'around October 2017' or something similar perhaps even 'Next launch NET October 14, 2017', if flight permit for SES-11 from SLC-40 has been granted with that date and all earlier flight are not from that pad?

Any news on how this pad work is coming along / when it will finish? Will LC39A work start immediately after Sept 7th ish launch of X-37B or are they going to wait for fully operational status or even a launch?

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #28 on: 08/22/2017 02:35 PM »
Does anyone know,
Which one of Spaceflight flights is the one with Space IL, and what is the chance for that to launch on time for the Xprize?

Not seen anything since:
http://spacenews.com/spaceflight-to-launch-terra-bella-satellites-on-falcon-9-mission/
and
https://qz.com/962696/spaceil-the-israeli-team-competing-for-the-google-lunar-xprize-wont-make-it-to-the-starting-line/

Based on those, it appears to be a 'Spaceflight Industries' flight but not the Sun Synch Express flight and that won't be until 2018. So the chances look extremely slim unless the Xprize deadline is extended.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #29 on: 08/22/2017 03:46 PM »
            CCAFS SLC-40: Damaged by vehicle explosion (no launches until around August 2017)

Should this be updated to 'around October 2017' or something similar perhaps even 'Next launch NET October 14, 2017', if flight permit for SES-11 from SLC-40 has been granted with that date and all earlier flight are not from that pad?

Any news on how this pad work is coming along / when it will finish? Will LC39A work start immediately after Sept 7th ish launch of X-37B or are they going to wait for fully operational status or even a launch?

'Around October 2017' works  :)  We really don't know for sure yet that the next east coast flight after OTV-5 will be SES-11 in October from SLC-40, but most of the info we've seen lately points in that direction (SES and Echostar statements showing SES-11 in Q4, no info yet that anything else will fly after OTV-5 and before SES-11, expectations that SLC-40 will be ready in the next month or two.)  I also don't really know what flight that 'NET October 14th' FCC permit application is for.  Maybe SES-11 won't be the next launch, or SLC-40 will hit a snag, or something else will come up that makes our assumptions invalid.

We're assuming SpaceX will have a pretty good idea about the state of SLC-40 by the time OTV-5 launches.  If they're confident it's close, and the next flight really isn't until October, then I'd expect them to start work on LC-39A.  For news about the pads just keep an eye on the launch site threads:
   Rebuilding SLC-40
   Pad 39A - Transition to SpaceX Falcon Heavy debut - Thread 3



Does anyone know,
Which one of Spaceflight flights is the one with Space IL, and what is the chance for that to launch on time for the Xprize?

The information crandles57 posted above is really all we know, and based on that I'm not even sure Space IL will be on a SpaceX flight.
« Last Edit: 08/22/2017 06:12 PM by gongora »

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #30 on: 08/23/2017 02:19 AM »
The document cited below has CRS-15 as 6/6/18:

Just stumbled across the Office of Safety & Mission Assurance's long-term planning schedule for Safety & Mission Success Reviews which shows tentative launch date for GRACE-FO of 2018-03-21.  That date was current based on an ELV milestone schedule from August 2nd.  I won't be too surprised if this date doesn't hold since it's still quite a ways out, especially since then they'd have a bunch of very high profile launches currently scheduled for that month: DM-1, TESS, GRACE-FO.  TESS has a harder deadline for launch and DM-1 is vital for their crew schedules.

Link to SMSR .pdf
« Last Edit: 08/23/2017 02:20 AM by FutureSpaceTourist »

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #31 on: 08/23/2017 02:57 AM »
Also, there's only ONE Delta IV Canaveral launch currently scheduled between now and Solar Probe Plus on July 31, 2018--GPS III-1.

SPP is flying before GPS.

I'm guessing this means we shouldn't count on GPS III-2 launching in May  :)

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #32 on: 08/23/2017 03:02 AM »
Also, there's only ONE Delta IV Canaveral launch currently scheduled between now and Solar Probe Plus on July 31, 2018--GPS III-1.

SPP is flying before GPS.

I'm guessing this means we shouldn't count on GPS III-2 launching in May  :)
Sat is ready and like its sibling just waiting on Ground segment to be ready to support which is the hold up.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #33 on: 08/23/2017 03:41 AM »
The document cited below has CRS-15 as 6/6/18:

Just stumbled across the Office of Safety & Mission Assurance's long-term planning schedule for Safety & Mission Success Reviews which shows tentative launch date for GRACE-FO of 2018-03-21.  That date was current based on an ELV milestone schedule from August 2nd.  I won't be too surprised if this date doesn't hold since it's still quite a ways out, especially since then they'd have a bunch of very high profile launches currently scheduled for that month: DM-1, TESS, GRACE-FO.  TESS has a harder deadline for launch and DM-1 is vital for their crew schedules.

Link to SMSR .pdf

You should ignore the CRS dates from those documents, because they are suuuuper fluid.  Since it was published, they have likely shifted right at least 2 months. 
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #34 on: 08/23/2017 10:02 AM »
You should ignore the CRS dates from those documents, because they are suuuuper fluid.  Since it was published, they have likely shifted right at least 2 months.

Fair enough, but at the time I posted this thread had CRS-15 as NET Mar 18 so I thought it worth a mention.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #35 on: 08/28/2017 10:56 AM »
Quote
SES switches SpaceX and Arianespace launches to mitigate cost of satellite failure
by Peter B. de Selding | Aug 28, 2017

PARIS — Satellite fleet operator SES, which this year has suffered both predictable satellite-launch delays and unpredictable satellite failures, on Aug. 28 said it would move a satellite from launch-service provider SpaceX to Arianespace to minimize revenue losses.
As a result, the SES-14 satellite will launch aboard an Ariane 5 ECA rocket early in Q1 of next year rather than a less-clear Q1 launch date offered by SpaceX. SpaceX instead will launch the heavier SES-12 satellite, up to now slated for an Ariane 5, on a Falcon 9 vehicle in Q1 2018.

[...]

https://www.spaceintelreport.com/ses-switches-spacex-arianespace-launches-mitigate-cost-satellite-failure/

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #36 on: 08/31/2017 03:40 PM »
[The Jakarta Post] Telkom to replace troubled satellite in August 2018
Quote
State-owned telecommunications company PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Telkom Indonesia) plans to launch its Telkom 4 satellite in a year’s time to replace the troubled Telkom 1.

“We have signed a contract to launch the Telkom 4 satellite. It will be launched from the United States in August 2018,” said PT Telkom president director Alex J. Sinaga during a press conference with Communications and Information Minister Rudiantara in Jakarta on Wednesday.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #37 on: 09/01/2017 06:46 PM »
Does anyone know,
Which one of Spaceflight flights is the one with Space IL, and what is the chance for that to launch on time for the Xprize?

Guess they are still with SpaceX, maybe on the Spaceflight GTO rideshare?

[Space.com] Calling the Moon: Startup to Put Cellphone Tower on the Moon
Quote
PT Scientists has a launch contract for late 2018 with Space X as a secondary payload on the Falcon 9 rocket. Becker said the company believes it will be the first private entity to reach the surface of the moon, suggesting that none of the Google Lunar X Prize participants are likely to meet the December 2017 deadline for the competition. (PT Scientists itself withdrew from the Google Lunar X Prize earlier this year due to the time constraints of the competition.)

The Falcon 9 will carry the team's spacecraft, Alina, to the geostationary transfer orbit, a highly elliptical Earth orbit whose highest point is 26,000 miles (42,000 kilometers). From there, Alina will continue on its own to the moon.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #38 on: 09/04/2017 09:38 PM »
Tweet from Jeff Foust:
Quote
Kacific announces that it’s selected SpaceX to launch its Boeing-built Kacific-1 broadband satellite on a Falcon 9 in 2019.

Quote
Kacific selects SpaceX to provide launch service

Kacific Broadband Satellites Group (Kacific) has selected SpaceX as the launch provider for its Kacific-1 satellite, which is being built by The Boeing Company.

Kacific-1 will be launched on a SpaceX Falcon 9, a two-stage orbit-class rocket designed from the ground-up for maximum reliability and reusability.

“SpaceX has a breadth of vision that appeals to us,” says Christian Patouraux, Kacific CEO. “The company is committed to changing the way people think about space and the possibilities it represents. Signing with SpaceX as our launch service provider is a major step towards delivering our own vision. We look forward to seeing Kacific-1 atop a Falcon 9 Rocket in 2019.”

“SpaceX is proud to partner with Kacific on the milestone launch of the company’s first satellite, Kacific-1.” said Gwynne Shotwell, President and COO of SpaceX. “We appreciate their confidence in our proven capabilities and look forward to delivering their satellite to orbit.”

In February 2017 Kacific placed an order with The Boeing Company for the Kacific-1 satellite. Based on the reliable 702 satellite platform, Kacific-1 is designed to deliver high speed broadband via 56 narrow Ka-band beams, with the most powerful signal level ever achieved in a commercial satellite in the South East Asia and Pacific regions.

About Kacific

The Kacific Broadband Satellites Group is a satellite operator developing a high-speed broadband offering for underserved, remote and rural markets with disseminated pockets of population. It addresses the gap in supply with specifically designed satellites using the latest multi-beam and high throughput space communications and ground technology transmitting over the Ka Band.

Using cost-effective technology and a lean business model Kacific aims to provide better broadband quality at significantly less than current retail prices, fostering greater internet usage and fuelling economic growth and improvements in service delivery across covered regions, with its first deployment focusing on South East Asia and the Pacific. 

Kacific’s headquarters are in Singapore with main operations out of Vanuatu.

For more information, visit www.kacific.com


Kacific-1/JCSat-18 on Gunter's Space Page
Boeing press release for satellite order
Kacific press release for satellite order
SpaceNews story on satellite order
« Last Edit: 09/05/2017 02:37 PM by gongora »

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #39 on: 09/06/2017 09:50 PM »
SpaceX has added a number of new missions on their manifest page (http://www.spacex.com/missions):

* an Eutelsat
* SXM-7 for Sirius-XM
* SXM-8 for Sirius-XM
* an not named satellite from SSL
* a satellite for TELKOM INDONESIA (likely Telkom-4)

Added the SiriusXM flights to the manifest

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #40 on: 09/07/2017 05:59 PM »
Saving a snapshot for future reference.  Someone should remind me to do this a couple times a year.
Discussion of the manifest, and updates. The best guess at the current manifest is in this post. 
Discussion of the table format should be done here: SpaceX Manifest Table Format Discussion
Prior thread: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4

Sites:
      C=Canaveral (UTC-4 EDT,UTC-5 EST)
            CCAFS SLC-40: Damaged by vehicle explosion (no launches until around October 2017, no earlier than September)
            KSC LC-39A: Active for F9, will need further work for FH and Commercial Crew
      V=Vandenberg (UTC-7 PDT,UTC-8 PST)
            SLC-4E: Active for F9
      B=Boca Chica (UTC-5 CDT,UTC-6 CST)
            Site preparation work underway

Daylight saving time starts second Sunday in March, ends first Sunday in November, time changes at 2:00 a.m. local time

       Local        LV  Core   Ret- .                             .    Mass   .     Mis-
Est. Date,  Time/UTC.   S/N    urn  Payload(s)                    Orb  (kg)   Site sion
------------------- --- ------ ---  ----------------------------  ---  -----  -----  ----
2017-01-14  0954/-8F91029.1SIridium NEXT (Flight 1)PLR9600V-4E30
2017-02-19  0939/-5F91031.1LCRS 10LEO~10kC-39A31
2017-03-16  0200/-4F91030XEchostar 23GTO~5500C-39A32
2017-03-30  1827/-4F91021.2SSES-10GTO5282C-39A33
2017-05-01  0715/-4F91032LNROL-76LEO?C-39A34
2017-05-15  1921/-4F91034XInmarsat 5 F4GTO6086C-39A35
2017-06-03  1707/-4F91035LCRS 11LEO~10kC-39A36
2017-06-23  1510/-4F91029.2SBulgariaSat-1GTO3669C-39A37
2017-06-25  1325/-7F91036SIridium NEXT (Flight 2)PLR9600V-4E38
2017-07-05  1938/-4F91037XIntelsat 35eGTO6761C-39A39
2017-08-14  1231/-4F91039LCRS 12LEO~10kC-39A40
2017-08-24  1151/-7F91038SFORMOSAT-5SSO475V-4E41
2017-09-07  1000/-7F91040LAir Force X-37B OTV-5LEO5400C-39A42
------------------- --- ------ ---  ----------------------------  ---  -----  ----- ----
2017-10-04  0606/-7F91041SIridium NEXT (Flight 3)PLR9600V-4E43
2017-10F91031.2?SES-11/Echostar 105GTO5400C-39A44
2017-Q4F9.SKoreasat-5AGTO3500C .
2017-11-lateF9.SIridium NEXT (Flight 4)PLR9600V-4E.
2017-Q4F9.XHispasat 1F (30W-6)GTO6092C.
2017-Q4H.LLSFalcon Heavy Demo Flight..C-39A(50)
2017-12F9.LCRS 13LEO~10kC.
2017-12F9.SGovSat-1 (SES-16)GTO4000C.
2017-12F9..BangabandhuGTO~3500C.
2017-12F9..Paz & co-passengerSSO1400V-4E.
2018-Q1F9.SIridium NEXT (Flight 5)PLR9600V-4E.
2018F9..Spaceflight SSO-A (575km)SSO.V-4E.
2018F9.SEs'hail 2GTO~3kC.
2018-01-late or 02F9.LCRS 14LEO~10kC(55)
2018-02F9.?CCtCap DM1LEO.C-39A.
2018-H1H.LLSArabsat 6AGTO~6kC-39A.
2018-Q1F9.SSES-12GTO5300C.
2018-03-20F9..NASA (TESS)HEO325C .
2018-03-21F9..Iridium NEXT 6/GRACE-FOPLR~6kV-4E.
2018-03F9.?SAOCOM 1ASSO2800V-4E.
2018-04F9..CCiCap In-Flight Abort TestSUB.C.
2018-Q2F9.?Telstar 18 Vantage/Apstar-5CGTO>5400C.
2018-Q2F9.?Telstar 19 VantageGTO>5400C.
2018-04-30 (NET)H.LLSSTP-2 (US Air Force)MEO~8k?C-39A.
2018-05 (NET)F9..USAF GPS III A-2MEO3880C.
2018-Q2F9..Iridium NEXT (Flight 7)PLR9600V-4E.
2018-06F9.LCRS 15LEO~10kC.
2018-06F9..CCtCap DM2 (Crew)LEO.C-39A.
2018-06F9..Iridium NEXT (Flight 8)PLR9600V-4E.
2018F9.?PSN-6 and co-passengerGTO5000C.
2018-08F9..Telkom 4GTO.C(68)
2018-08F9.LCRS 16LEO~10kC.
2018-Q3F9..RADARSAT ConstellationSSO1400V-4E.
2018F9..OHB SARah 1SSO~2200V-4E.
2018-10F9.LCRS 17LEO~10kC.
2018-Q4F9..Spaceflight SSO-B (500km)SSO.V-4E(70)
2018-Q4F9..GiSat-1GTO~6kC/B.
2018-Q4F9..Spaceflight GTO (200x60k/km)GTO.C(70)
2018-12F9.LCRS 18LEO~10kC.
2019H.???SpaceX Crewed CircumlunarTLI~10k?C-39A.
2019F9..CRS 19-20LEO.C.
2019-02F9..USAF GPS IIIA-3MEO3880C.
2019F9..SAOCOM 1B and companionsSSO~3-4kV-4E.
2019F9..OHB SARah 2/3SSO~3600V-4E .
2019-H2F9..JCSAT-18/Kacific-1GTO~6k+C/B.
2019F9..SiriusXM SXM-7GTO.C(80)
2019-Q4F9..Spaceflight GTO(200x36k/km)GTO.C/B(70)
2020F9..Spaceflight SSO-C (500km SSO)SSO.V-4E(70)
2020F9..SiriusXM SXM-8GTO.C(80)
2020-2021H..ViaSat 3-Americas or 3-EMEAGTO6400C/B(69)
2021-04F9..SWOTLEO2000V-4E.
TBD (2019-2024)F9..Commercial Crew (6 flights)LEO.C-39A.
TBD (2020-2024)F9..CRS-2 (6+ flights)LEO.C.
Companies that appear to have contracts for unspecified payloads: Eutelsat, Inmarsat (x2?), Northrop Grumman, Bigelow

Return: L=Land,S=Sea,X=Expendable,N/A=Not Applicable
Launch Vehicle: F9=Falcon 9, H=Falcon Heavy, F=Falcon 9 or Heavy
Colors: Successful / Unsuccessful / Mars!!!! / Footnotes

L2 SpaceX CRS External Cargo
L2 Level SpaceX Falcon 9 Stage Watch / Public Core Spotting
SpaceX Launch Log (past launches) / Wikipedia Falcon Launches
Viewing flights from Vandenberg / Ben Cooper's Viewing Guide for Cape Canaveral
Upcoming SpaceX Talks / General Industry Talks
SpaceX Falcon Mission Simulations

NOTES:
(50) FH Demo - Serial Numbers: Center:1033  Side1:1023.2  Side2: 1025.2
(55) CRS-14 : EnduroSat One @ARRL
(68) Telkom 4 links Gunter
(69) Viasat 3 : one of first two Viasat 3 birds in mid-2019 or early-2020.  Also third Viasat 3 if it gets built?
  ViaSatellite 2/10/16 SpaceNews 2/10/2016 Gunter
(70) Spaceflight Industries : Upcoming Spaceflight Ind. schedule update
(80) Sirius SXM-7, SXM-8 : SSL Contract Press Release / Gunter

Possible future payloads:
Inmarsat 6 F1 SpaceNews mention / Airbus contract / Gunter / Space Intel mention

Competitions for future payloads:
Air Force - EELV, First 5

L2 notes on manifest:

Recent Edits:
Sep 06 Added Sirius SXM-7, SXM-8.  Removed line items for Eutelsat and Inmarsat, added list at the end for customers with unspecified contracts.
Sep 04 Added Kacific-1/JCSat-18 in second half of 2019
Aug 31 Telkom 4 moved from June to August 2018
Aug 28 SES-14 switched to Ariane 5 launch.  SES-12 switched to F9 launch Q1-2018.
Aug 25 Moved Iridium Flight 3 to October 4.
Aug 23 Removed Spaceflight Industries GTO-1, SSO-D
Aug 22 GRACE-FO March 21, 2018.  CRS-14 late January 2018?, CRS-15 June 2018.
Aug 13 Moved CRS-13 to early December


All comments and updates are welcomed!  Thank you to all contributors!
« Last Edit: 09/07/2017 06:00 PM by gongora »

Online AncientU

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #41 on: 09/07/2017 07:13 PM »
SpaceX has added a number of new missions on their manifest page (http://www.spacex.com/missions):

* an Eutelsat
* SXM-7 for Sirius-XM
* SXM-8 for Sirius-XM
* an not named satellite from SSL
* a satellite for TELKOM INDONESIA (likely Telkom-4)

Added the SiriusXM flights to the manifest

So, at least four GTOs recently added... possibly five, plus Kacific this week.
Must be making impression on the market that backlog is under control.
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #42 on: 09/07/2017 07:18 PM »
SpaceX has added a number of new missions on their manifest page (http://www.spacex.com/missions):

* an Eutelsat
* SXM-7 for Sirius-XM
* SXM-8 for Sirius-XM
* an not named satellite from SSL
* a satellite for TELKOM INDONESIA (likely Telkom-4)

Added the SiriusXM flights to the manifest

So, at least four GTOs recently added... possibly five, plus Kacific this week.
Must be making impression on the market that backlog is under control.

If the four or five you're referring too are the ones Skyrocket listed, only the Sirius flights are really new.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #43 on: 09/07/2017 07:22 PM »
Aren't they additions to the manifest this year? 
New orders this year?
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #44 on: 09/07/2017 07:29 PM »
Aren't they additions to the manifest this year? 
New orders this year?

Telkom-4 is this year (we heard about it a few months ago).  PSN-6 (SSL) we've known about for over a year.  Eutelsat is one of those old contracts that's never been assigned a firm payload, speculation was it would be the Eutelsat Quantum satellite but apparently there is political pressure to launch that one on a European rocket since it has government funding.

edit: the Eutelsat contract was from early 2016 for either Quantum or something else...
SpaceNews article
« Last Edit: 09/07/2017 07:32 PM by gongora »

Offline Norm38

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #45 on: 09/08/2017 04:39 PM »
I guess it was good planning on SpaceX's part to not have another launch planned at the Cape for a month.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #46 on: 09/08/2017 05:04 PM »
Do we have any idea when the SXM-7 and SXM-8 launches were awarded to SpaceX or the potential value? Just a surprise to see these going on a Falcon 9 since previously they've only launched on a Zenit or Proton vehicle.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #47 on: 09/08/2017 09:32 PM »


I guess it was good planning on SpaceX's part to not have another launch planned at the Cape for a month.

I know you meant it as a joke, but September is the peak of the hurricane season. Maybe this factored into the mission planning.
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #48 on: 09/09/2017 12:24 AM »


I guess it was good planning on SpaceX's part to not have another launch planned at the Cape for a month.

I know you meant it as a joke, but September is the peak of the hurricane season. Maybe this factored into the mission planning.
It would be interesting to know what fraction of the critical path through September was allocated to: expected weather disruption (check!), Hawthorne/McGregor work (unaffected), or Cape work (likely to be delayed).

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #49 on: 09/11/2017 07:16 PM »
Several articles in the Indonesian press saying they may want to move up the Telkom 4 launch a couple months in the wake of the Telkom 1 failure.  After looking at the SpaceX manifest for 2018 my first thought is "good luck with that".

https://inet.detik.com/telecommunication/d-3637096/buyarnya-rencana-satelit-telkom-4-di-17-agustus-2018
https://beritagar.id/artikel/berita/peluncuran-satelit-telkom-4-akan-dipercepat
http://www.indotelko.com/kanal?c=id&it=ssl-satelit-telkom-4

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #50 on: 09/11/2017 07:24 PM »
Several articles in the Indonesian press saying they may want to move up the Telkom 4 launch a couple months in the wake of the Telkom 1 failure.  After looking at the SpaceX manifest for 2018 my first thought is "good luck with that".

https://inet.detik.com/telecommunication/d-3637096/buyarnya-rencana-satelit-telkom-4-di-17-agustus-2018
https://beritagar.id/artikel/berita/peluncuran-satelit-telkom-4-akan-dipercepat
http://www.indotelko.com/kanal?c=id&it=ssl-satelit-telkom-4
Switching to a flight-proven booster might help with that.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #51 on: 09/11/2017 07:38 PM »
Several articles in the Indonesian press saying they may want to move up the Telkom 4 launch a couple months in the wake of the Telkom 1 failure.  After looking at the SpaceX manifest for 2018 my first thought is "good luck with that".

https://inet.detik.com/telecommunication/d-3637096/buyarnya-rencana-satelit-telkom-4-di-17-agustus-2018
https://beritagar.id/artikel/berita/peluncuran-satelit-telkom-4-akan-dipercepat
http://www.indotelko.com/kanal?c=id&it=ssl-satelit-telkom-4
Switching to a flight-proven booster might help with that.

I thought they had already confirmed they were using a recovered booster?

Offline Ragmar

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #52 on: 09/11/2017 07:46 PM »
Looks like SAOCOM 1A is now June 2018.

Quote
This Italian-Argentine system will be complete when the two SAOCOM 1A and SAOCOM 1B satellites are launched, which will be put into orbit in June 2018 and at the beginning of 2019, respectively. Dr. Laura Frulla, principal investigator of the SAOCOM mission, stressed that "this international summit is very useful for the meeting of the institutions of the different countries".

http://www.losandes.com.ar/article/cumbre-en-buenos-aires-se-pueden-anticipar-catastrofes-naturales-con-informacion-satelital

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #53 on: 09/11/2017 07:59 PM »
Several articles in the Indonesian press saying they may want to move up the Telkom 4 launch a couple months in the wake of the Telkom 1 failure.  After looking at the SpaceX manifest for 2018 my first thought is "good luck with that".

https://inet.detik.com/telecommunication/d-3637096/buyarnya-rencana-satelit-telkom-4-di-17-agustus-2018
https://beritagar.id/artikel/berita/peluncuran-satelit-telkom-4-akan-dipercepat
http://www.indotelko.com/kanal?c=id&it=ssl-satelit-telkom-4
Switching to a flight-proven booster might help with that.

I thought they had already confirmed they were using a recovered booster?
Maybe if they take a block 3? LOL.
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #54 on: 09/12/2017 05:02 PM »
Here is the math.

Using Blk 5's that have flown only in 2018, and that only BLk'5 will fly in 2018.

That each Blk 5 will be capable of 3 flights 1 as new and 2 as used without much refurbishment work. Mostly just inspections and tests, little or no hardware swap-out.

That the initial quarter of 2018 (2018 Q1) launches 4 new Blk'5. The build rate of 1st stages remains at 4 per quarter. The build rate of US starting in 2018 is increased each quarter until reaching a build rate of 12 per quarter by 2018 Q4.

Then by EOY 2018 there will have been 32 launches, with 67% of then in the last quarter being used. This used to total rate will become steady state such that a total of 48 launches is possible in 2019.

This is without requiring more manufacturing floor space.

By decreasing the 1st stage build rate to 3/quarter and increasing the US build rate to 16/quarter. By increasing the re-flight rate for each booster by 1 to 1 new and 3 used flights for a total of 4, enables a total number of launches per year of 64 also without the need for more floor space. The used to total flights rate will then be 75%.
« Last Edit: 09/12/2017 05:07 PM by oldAtlas_Eguy »

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #55 on: 09/12/2017 05:30 PM »
This thread is really not for speculation on launch rates, customer adoption rates of reuse, etc.  It is for discussing which flights are on the manifest and when they will fly.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #56 on: 09/12/2017 08:05 PM »
http://spacenews.com/inmarsat-picks-h2-a-to-launch-its-first-sixth-gen-satellite/

Looks like Inmarsat-6 F1 is no longer a FH launch--remove from the manifest (even though it's in the speculation section)?

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #57 on: 09/15/2017 09:11 AM »
Quote
Peter B. de Selding‏ @pbdes 35s seconds ago

Taiwan NSPO: Six US/Taiwan Formosat-7/COSMIC-2 sats to launch Q2 2018 on @SpaceX Falcon Heavy; will be 1st launch after Nov FH demo flight.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/908619097189027840


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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #58 on: 09/19/2017 03:44 PM »
SpaceX submitted another STA permit application for using a landing radar, this time for mission 1373 on the east coast.  Timing would suggest maybe it's for Koreasat 5A.  (That would line up with Raul's interpretation of the FCC permit numbering, which I'd been a little skeptical about.)

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #59 on: 09/19/2017 05:40 PM »
(That would line up with Raul's interpretation of the FCC permit numbering, which I'd been a little skeptical about.)

Where is Raul's interpretation?

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #60 on: 09/19/2017 06:46 PM »
(That would line up with Raul's interpretation of the FCC permit numbering, which I'd been a little skeptical about.)

Where is Raul's interpretation?

Part of it was in PM's we exchanged, but basically it boiled down to whether or not the F9-35 permit was ever used.  Raul thought it wasn't, which would make the numbers line up better.  It gets a bit confusing since SpaceX stopped publicly saying which mission number was used for a flight.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #61 on: 09/19/2017 09:13 PM »
Part of it was in PM's we exchanged, but basically it boiled down to whether or not the F9-35 permit was ever used.  Raul thought it wasn't, which would make the numbers line up better.  It gets a bit confusing since SpaceX stopped publicly saying which mission number was used for a flight.

Ah ok. I was hoping for some kind of algorithm to make sense of them.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #62 on: 09/20/2017 01:37 PM »
Btw, you can always find my pairing of FCC application mission numbering (M13xx) with mission name in this Spx map - layer "Falcon 9 v1.2. flights", or in last hazard area maps (#5, #6).

In case of all past missions.. booster recovery position, initially issued in FCC application just under that mission numbering, later matches with hazard area issued before each mission or AIS data of recovery vessel during mission.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #63 on: 09/28/2017 06:15 PM »
I see there are still no Vandenberg RTLS launches listed on the manifest.

Also, there are zero Falcon Heavies scheduled for Vandenberg.  Did they scrap plans to make the Vandenberg pad compatible with Heavy?

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #64 on: 09/28/2017 06:16 PM »
I see there are still no Vandenberg RTLS launches listed on the manifest.

Also, there are zero Falcon Heavies scheduled for Vandenberg.  Did they scrap plans to make the Vandenberg pad compatible with Heavy?

Need to sell a launch for a west coast FH first.  Why spend the money, any FH launch from VAFB will have a long enough lead time to complete the mods.
Excited to be finally into the first Falcon Heavy flow, we are getting so close!

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #65 on: 09/28/2017 10:05 PM »
I see there are still no Vandenberg RTLS launches listed on the manifest.

According to EverydayAstronaut first RTLS at VAFB should be approved for Iridium-4 mission.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #66 on: 09/29/2017 02:52 PM »
In Elon's presentation the 20 missions this year was still aimed for.
13 down, 7 to go.

Known:
1) SES-11
2) IridiumNext-3
3) KoreaSat-5

Expected and most likely:
4) IridiumNext-4
5) CRS-13

Hoped:
6) FH Demo

Which would be the most likely 7th mission?
- Hispasat 1F (30W-6)
- GovSat-1 (SES-16)
- Bangabandhu
- PAZ & co-passenger

Somehow I find it a bit strange that we still have 10 more missions NET 2017 and SpaceX aiming to fly 7 of them..

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #67 on: 09/29/2017 03:40 PM »
In Elon's presentation the 20 missions this year was still aimed for.
13 down, 7 to go.

Known:
1) SES-11
2) IridiumNext-3
3) KoreaSat-5

Expected and most likely:
4) IridiumNext-4
5) CRS-13

Hoped:
6) FH Demo

Which would be the most likely 7th mission?
- Hispasat 1F (30W-6)
- GovSat-1 (SES-16)
- Bangabandhu
- PAZ & co-passenger

Somehow I find it a bit strange that we still have 10 more missions NET 2017 and SpaceX aiming to fly 7 of them..

I'm thinking Bangabandhu and PAZ slip to January.

Also, which is making me really confused about what SpaceX is doing with the pads right now, SpaceX filed FCC permit applications today moving TWO flights from pad 40 back to 39A.  One of them appears to be Koreasat 5A, which was obvious.  The other would appear to be CRS-13, which I find a bit strange.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #68 on: 09/29/2017 03:53 PM »
In Elon's presentation the 20 missions this year was still aimed for.
13 down, 7 to go.

Known:
1) SES-11
2) IridiumNext-3
3) KoreaSat-5

Expected and most likely:
4) IridiumNext-4
5) CRS-13

Hoped:
6) FH Demo

Which would be the most likely 7th mission?
- Hispasat 1F (30W-6)
- GovSat-1 (SES-16)
- Bangabandhu
- PAZ & co-passenger

Somehow I find it a bit strange that we still have 10 more missions NET 2017 and SpaceX aiming to fly 7 of them..

I'm thinking Bangabandhu and PAZ slip to January.

Also, which is making me really confused about what SpaceX is doing with the pads right now, SpaceX filed FCC permit applications today moving TWO flights from pad 40 back to 39A.  One of them appears to be Koreasat 5A, which was obvious.  The other would appear to be CRS-13, which I find a bit strange.
PAZ has to Target a specific spot to fly with its DLR companion satellites so that they can do joint science.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #69 on: 09/29/2017 04:01 PM »
Now that I'm somewhat convinced that the Falcon Heavy Demo flight will be delayed into early 2018, I'm guessing that the following missions will round out 2017:

1: SES-11/EchoStar 105

2: Iridium-NEXT F3

3: Koreasat 5A

4: Iridium-NEXT F4

5: SpaceX CRS-13

6: Hispasat 30W-6

7: SES-16/GovSat
"Liftoff of Falcon 9: the world's first reflight of an orbital-class rocket."

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #70 on: 09/29/2017 04:11 PM »
To go from the pace of 20 launches a year to 30 will require significant changes and improvements in testing, processing and launching. 

2018 will be excited, FH, Dragon 2, Block 5, launch rate.

Exciting times.
Excited to be finally into the first Falcon Heavy flow, we are getting so close!

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #71 on: 09/30/2017 05:55 PM »
The 2022 mission of the BFR to Mars!!! should be made red in the top post.
« Last Edit: 09/30/2017 05:56 PM by Tass »

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #72 on: 10/02/2017 12:30 AM »
Updates from SpaceflightNow schedule:

Koreasat 5A - Oct. 30, 3:34-5:58 EDT
CRS-13 Nov. 28
CRS-14 Feb. 9

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #73 on: 10/02/2017 12:48 AM »
There are a few changes on the SpaceflightNow schedule that weren't listed at the top.  One of them is Crew Dragon Demo 1 moving to April.  This really wouldn't be a surprise (frankly I would find it encouraging if Crew Dragon is only slipping a couple more months at this point, and SpaceX is already doing other NASA launches in February and March).

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #74 on: 10/04/2017 04:09 PM »
You may want to add 2 cargo BFR in 2022 and 2 cargo + 2 crewed BFR in 2024... just to adhere to recent plan.  :D

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #75 on: 10/04/2017 04:17 PM »
You may want to add 2 cargo BFR in 2022 and 2 cargo + 2 crewed BFR in 2024... just to adhere to recent plan.  :D

No. I'll add more BFR flights in a few years if they appear to be sticking with that schedule.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #76 on: 10/05/2017 05:05 AM »
Seems unlikely, but a cubesat copassenger on CRS-14 (Overview 1A and 1B) suggested a launch date of 1/26/18.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BZHVuAYnKHu/
spaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaace

Offline Olaf

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #77 on: 10/05/2017 05:55 AM »
Seems unlikely, but a cubesat copassenger on CRS-14 (Overview 1A and 1B) suggested a launch date of 1/26/18.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BZHVuAYnKHu/
That seems to be an old date, the newest one is 2/9/18.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #78 on: 10/05/2017 07:46 AM »
I'm assuming you mean February, not September? People need to make their dates unambiguous.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #79 on: 10/05/2017 08:30 AM »
I'm assuming you mean February, not September? People need to make their dates unambiguous.
February
Some are bound for happiness, some are bound to glory, some are bound to live with less, who can tell your story?

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #80 on: 10/05/2017 08:33 AM »
Small update from SFN schedule, Bangabandhu 1 delayed to Feb 2018
Some are bound for happiness, some are bound to glory, some are bound to live with less, who can tell your story?

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #81 on: 10/05/2017 03:22 PM »
DM-1 April 2018, DM-2 Aug 2018 (Boeing-1 Aug 2018, Boeing-2 Nov 2018)

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #82 on: 10/09/2017 06:26 PM »
Quote
Owner #hisdesat Spain: @SpaceX sets Jan 30 VAFB launch of 1400-kg @AirbusDefence-built Paz high-res SAR Earth obs sat to 514-km polar orbit.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/917451649177739264

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #83 on: 10/12/2017 01:17 PM »
Quote from: SpaceFlightNow
SES is considering launching its next satellite — SES 16 developed in partnership with the government of Luxembourg — with a reused Falcon 9 booster in January.

Article Link

SES 16 slips to January and on a re-used booster (as I think can be expected for most SES flights from here on out).

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #84 on: 10/12/2017 01:29 PM »
Starting to feel like SpaceX is clearing the calendar for December launch prep (and hopefully, launch) of Falcon Heavy.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #85 on: 10/12/2017 10:52 PM »
-confirmed that Boca is explicitly for BFR
The pork must flow.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #86 on: 10/12/2017 10:57 PM »
Starting to feel like SpaceX is clearing the calendar for December launch prep (and hopefully, launch) of Falcon Heavy.

If you're referring to the SES launch moving to January and on a reused booster, that may also be dealing with booster production limitations.

Maybe someone is trying to slip in a launch of Starlink test sats or Google X Prize rovers.
Excited to be finally into the first Falcon Heavy flow, we are getting so close!

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #87 on: 10/12/2017 11:51 PM »
Starting to feel like SpaceX is clearing the calendar for December launch prep (and hopefully, launch) of Falcon Heavy.

If you're referring to the SES launch moving to January and on a reused booster, that may also be dealing with booster production limitations.

Maybe someone is trying to slip in a launch of Starlink test sats or Google X Prize rovers.

This is Off Topic for this thread, people.
We are discussing what is going to be launched when, not "why".  There are plenty of threads in which to discuss that.
As for the manifest, we have no info suggesting launches not on our list being inserted.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #88 on: 10/14/2017 11:40 AM »
As for the manifest, we have no info suggesting launches not on our list being inserted.

There are approved FCC licences for an RTLS launch 1390 from 39A on November 10th.

1446-EX-ST-2017:
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80568&RequestTimeout=1000

1318-EX-ST-2017:
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80217&RequestTimeout=1000

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #89 on: 10/14/2017 11:53 AM »
Starting to feel like SpaceX is clearing the calendar for December launch prep (and hopefully, launch) of Falcon Heavy.

If you're referring to the SES launch moving to January and on a reused booster, that may also be dealing with booster production limitations.

Maybe someone is trying to slip in a launch of Starlink test sats or Google X Prize rovers.

This is Off Topic for this thread, people.
We are discussing what is going to be launched when, not "why".  There are plenty of threads in which to discuss that.
As for the manifest, we have no info suggesting launches not on our list being inserted.

I might have misread, but the report on Tom Ochinero's comments quoted him as stating there are 5 more launches planned for this year in addition to the Falcon Heavy Demo launch. If so, that would suggest a missing launch on our current predicted manifest for 2017.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #90 on: 10/14/2017 11:58 AM »
I might have misread, but the report on Tom Ochinero's comments quoted him as stating there are 5 more launches planned for this year in addition to the Falcon Heavy Demo launch. If so, that would suggest a missing launch on our current predicted manifest for 2017.

IIRC he said that a couple of hours before SES-11 launch, so it's unclear whether he counted that one.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #91 on: 10/14/2017 12:00 PM »
I might have misread, but the report on Tom Ochinero's comments quoted him as stating there are 5 more launches planned for this year in addition to the Falcon Heavy Demo launch. If so, that would suggest a missing launch on our current predicted manifest for 2017.

IIRC he said that a couple of hours before SES-11 launch, so it's unclear whether he counted that one.

Ah. That would explain it.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #92 on: 10/14/2017 12:58 PM »
As for the manifest, we have no info suggesting launches not on our list being inserted.

There are approved FCC licences for an RTLS launch 1390 from 39A on November 10th.

1446-EX-ST-2017:
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80568&RequestTimeout=1000

1318-EX-ST-2017:
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80217&RequestTimeout=1000

So this would be which known satellite?   Hispasat is way too heavy and GTO, so that can't be RTLS.  So it seems there is indeed an unknown payload out there.

Also...

Coming 12 days after Koreasat, this pushes 39A back again for Falcon Heavy.

Whatever is indeed ahead of CRS-13, that will make 30 Oct - 28 Nov a busy time period with 3 Falcon 9s from Kennedy/Cape in 30 days.

(EDITED: Hit post too quick before completing my thought that Hispasat is too heavy for RTLS.)
« Last Edit: 10/14/2017 01:04 PM by ChrisGebhardt »

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #93 on: 10/14/2017 01:02 PM »
Hispasat is too heavy to RTLS. It will probably be an expendable flight. So, this FCC application points to another payload.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #94 on: 10/14/2017 01:44 PM »
FCC APPLICATIONS ARE NET DATES, NOT LAUNCH DATES.

edit:  The start date on the application we think is for Hispasat 30W-6 is June 30.
« Last Edit: 10/14/2017 01:46 PM by gongora »

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #95 on: 10/14/2017 01:53 PM »
FCC APPLICATIONS ARE NET DATES, NOT LAUNCH DATES.

Yup, poor phrasing on my part. Still expected to go ASAP from 39A before it's taken over by the heavy.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #96 on: 10/14/2017 04:27 PM »
As for the manifest, we have no info suggesting launches not on our list being inserted.

There are approved FCC licences for an RTLS launch 1390 from 39A on November 10th.

1446-EX-ST-2017:
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80568&RequestTimeout=1000

1318-EX-ST-2017:
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80217&RequestTimeout=1000

And now we do
Good
My personal list had something in what nowadays looks like a big gap at 28 days.
My objection above was people discussing WHY SpaceX had a gap.
There are other threads for those discussions.
Now if we can just figure out what the payload is.
My list had Hispasat in this gap but Chris G says Hispasat is too heavy for the permitted RTLS.

edit:  We are all posting the same things at the same time.  I linked to Chris G's post just as he cross posted it. 

Gongora: Do you mean the permit thought to be Hispasat 30W-6 is for NEXT June 30, as in 2018?
Should you move Hispasat down the list, but leave the line, change the date to the 10th, and put on a likely core number?
« Last Edit: 10/14/2017 04:51 PM by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #97 on: 10/14/2017 11:08 PM »
So with the mystery payload, SpaceX may make 20 flights for the year after all. Suddenly the goal of 30 next year doesn't seem like such a stretch.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #98 on: 10/14/2017 11:24 PM »
Gongora: Do you mean the permit thought to be Hispasat 30W-6 is for NEXT June 30, as in 2018?
Should you move Hispasat down the list, but leave the line, change the date to the 10th, and put on a likely core number?

No, the FCC permit we think would be for Hispasat has a start date of June 30, 2017.  It's valid through the end of the year (and is for 39A, so who knows, maybe it gets replaced with a different permit if they change the pad).

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #99 on: 10/15/2017 07:22 AM »
http://www.satellitetoday.com/telecom/2017/06/22/cpi-will-provide-antenna-systems-skyvisions-gisat-1/
Quote
CPI expects delivery and installation of the antennas to begin in mid-2018 and to be completed in 2019.

http://www.boeing.com/space/boeing-satellite-family/index.page#/launch-schedule
Quote
GiSAT-1    702    Global IP    2019    Falcon 9

Offline Salo

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #100 on: 10/15/2017 08:47 AM »
https://www.nasa.gov/launchschedule/
Quote
Date: June
Mission: TESS (Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite)

Offline smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #101 on: 10/15/2017 04:16 PM »
Here is a new "FPIP chart" for SpaceX.
This time, as we are well into 4th quarter, I shifted the window to include the 1Q 2018.
So, there are many new points on the chart and a lot of guesswork.
Therefore, I'd be grateful for any corrections/suggestions before I put the chart on the first page of this thread.

Once again, the purpose of this chart is not an attempt to predict, but to visualize the launch cadence in near future and possible schedule conflicts.

Couple specific questions:

We do know that SpaceX CAN do launches only 10-12 days apart on LC-39A. What do you think about Vandenberg's SLC-4E? It still has old style TEL (open type) - may this slow down the operation?

Is there any general clues on *specialization* of the Cape pads? All I know is that LC-39A will be used for all FH launches and all CCT-related launches. Any other clues would be helpful for the chart.
For example - if military launches will prefer SLC-40?
Also - will NASA prefer to use LC-39A for CRS flights?
« Last Edit: 10/15/2017 04:17 PM by smoliarm »

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #102 on: 10/15/2017 04:34 PM »
Here is a new "FPIP chart" for SpaceX.
This time, as we are well into 4th quarter, I shifted the window to include the 1Q 2018.
So, there are many new points on the chart and a lot of guesswork.
Therefore, I'd be grateful for any corrections/suggestions before I put the chart on the first page of this thread.

ORS-6 should be changed to SSO-A (I think that will launch a couple months later but not sure yet.)  SAOCOM-1A has slipped to June.  The Vandenberg schedule is going to be interesting in the first half of 2018 but I doubt they need to do rapid turnarounds.  I'd be surprised if they try a pace faster than 3 launches in two months at any point on the west coast next year.  It's highly unlikely that all of the flights we currently have listed for the first half of 2018 actually get launched in the first half of 2018.

At the Cape I would still put TESS in March.

SpaceX will still be constrained by launch vehicle availablility for much (all?) of 2018 so expect slips to the right on a lot of the flights.

Offline mn

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #103 on: 10/16/2017 03:20 PM »
Does anyone know,
Which one of Spaceflight flights is the one with Space IL, and what is the chance for that to launch on time for the Xprize?

Not seen anything since:
http://spacenews.com/spaceflight-to-launch-terra-bella-satellites-on-falcon-9-mission/
and
https://qz.com/962696/spaceil-the-israeli-team-competing-for-the-google-lunar-xprize-wont-make-it-to-the-starting-line/

Based on those, it appears to be a 'Spaceflight Industries' flight but not the Sun Synch Express flight and that won't be until 2018. So the chances look extremely slim unless the Xprize deadline is extended.

Here's the latest I can find on SpaceIL (this was published on September 17):

https://www.israel21c.org/spanish-firm-delivers-shell-for-spaceils-race-to-the-moon/

Quote
Teams at SpaceIL and IAI will now enter the assembly and integration phase. The launch is expected to take place in 2018 on a rocket from Elon Musk’s private space transport company, SpaceX


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Offline Galactic Penguin SST

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #106 on: 10/18/2017 02:07 PM »
SpaceX has been contracted to launch Amos-17 and Amos-8 in Q2 2019 and H2 2020: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-com-spacex-satellite/spacex-spacecom-to-launch-new-satellites-after-explosion-last-year-idUSKBN1CN1FD

Something of note:
- AMOS-17, ordered from Boeing, is the replacement satellite for AMOS-5 (built by the Russians and failed after less than 4 years in service)
- As late as this July the decision of whether to build AMOS-8 inside house by IAI or to order it aboard has yet to be decided!
« Last Edit: 10/18/2017 02:09 PM by Galactic Penguin SST »
Chinese spaceflight is a cosmic riddle wrapped in a galactic mystery inside an orbital enigma... - (not) Winston Churchill

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #107 on: 10/18/2017 02:13 PM »
SpaceX has been contracted to launch Amos-17 and Amos-8 in Q2 2019 and H2 2020: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-com-spacex-satellite/spacex-spacecom-to-launch-new-satellites-after-explosion-last-year-idUSKBN1CN1FD

And the other thing of note, the Amos-17 launch is free to make up for the Amos-6 failure.

Offline jpo234

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #108 on: 10/18/2017 02:16 PM »
SpaceX has been contracted to launch Amos-17 and Amos-8 in Q2 2019 and H2 2020: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-com-spacex-satellite/spacex-spacecom-to-launch-new-satellites-after-explosion-last-year-idUSKBN1CN1FD

With 2018 already full beyond the 30 missions Elon suggested at IAC, the 2019 manifest starts to fill up.

You want to be inspired by things. You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great. That's what being a spacefaring civilization is all about. It's about believing in the future and believing the future will be better than the past. And I can't think of anything more exciting than being out there among the stars.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #109 on: 10/18/2017 02:19 PM »
I'm not sure 2018 is beyond 30 missions yet, I think I'm going to remove the Spaceflight Industries entries after SSO-A until we hear whether/when those are actually booked.  When the GPS satellite will launch is also kinda uncertain right now.
« Last Edit: 10/18/2017 02:19 PM by gongora »

Offline jpo234

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #110 on: 10/18/2017 02:20 PM »
SpaceX has been contracted to launch Amos-17 and Amos-8 in Q2 2019 and H2 2020: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-com-spacex-satellite/spacex-spacecom-to-launch-new-satellites-after-explosion-last-year-idUSKBN1CN1FD

And the other thing of note, the Amos-17 launch is free to make up for the Amos-6 failure.

They got the AMOS-6 launch for $50 mln.

Quote
Spacecom was an early customer for SpaceX with Amos-6, and paid about $50 million for the launch.
You want to be inspired by things. You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great. That's what being a spacefaring civilization is all about. It's about believing in the future and believing the future will be better than the past. And I can't think of anything more exciting than being out there among the stars.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #111 on: 10/18/2017 03:31 PM »
Something I can't see in the reuters write-up (my emphasis):

Quote
Jeff Foust‏ @jeff_foust 31m31 minutes ago

If the Google translation is correct, Amos 17 will launcher free under the contract for the lost Amos 6 satellite, with a reused 1st stage.

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/920664676068884480

The Spacecom press release (in Hebrew) is attached for anyone who can read it.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #112 on: 10/18/2017 03:54 PM »
Hmmmm.....in an article about the ZUMA launch

http://www.popularmechanics.com/space/rockets/news/a28661/spacex-mystery-launch-november-2017/

Quote
>
It's also possible that SpaceX's last mission of the year, the Spanish communications satellite Hispasat, could fly on the inaugural launch of the Falcon Heavy rocket.
>
DM

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #113 on: 10/18/2017 04:07 PM »
I'd take that with a huge grain of salt...

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #114 on: 10/18/2017 04:32 PM »
Popular Mechanics is not a credible source for our manifest information.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #115 on: 10/18/2017 04:36 PM »
Something I can't see in the reuters write-up (my emphasis):

Quote
Jeff Foust‏ @jeff_foust 31m31 minutes ago

If the Google translation is correct, Amos 17 will launcher free under the contract for the lost Amos 6 satellite, with a reused 1st stage.

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/920664676068884480

The Spacecom press release (in Hebrew) is attached for anyone who can read it.

For what it's worth, the Google translation of the press release specifies both the free launch and the used stage quite clearly (emphasis mine):

Quote
2. Consideration of the launch services
The consideration paid under the Amos 6 satellite launch agreement prior to the amendment will be recorded In full for a Amos 17 launch and no additional charge will be required for the Amos 17 launch.

3. Conditions for launch
1.3 Conditions have been agreed with regard to scheduling the launch and priorities in various cases. They were also arranged Conditions enabling the launch of the satellite using a Falcon 9 launcher that includes the first stage flown Previously.


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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #116 on: 10/19/2017 12:17 PM »
So Iridium NEXT-4 now NET Dec 22 on a flight proven booster (possibly 1036.2 but not confirmed):

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2017/10/iridium-4-flight-proven-falcon-9-rtls-vandenberg-delayed/

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #117 on: 10/19/2017 08:15 PM »
SpaceX has won a contract to launch the Jason-CS ocean science mission (aka Sentinel-6A) on an Falcon 9 in Nov 2020

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/921106460964196352
https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-awards-launch-services-contract-for-sentinel-6a-mission

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #118 on: 10/19/2017 08:33 PM »
Something I can't see in the reuters write-up (my emphasis):

Quote
Jeff Foust‏ @jeff_foust 31m31 minutes ago

If the Google translation is correct, Amos 17 will launcher free under the contract for the lost Amos 6 satellite, with a reused 1st stage.

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/920664676068884480

The Spacecom press release (in Hebrew) is attached for anyone who can read it.

For what it's worth, the Google translation of the press release specifies both the free launch and the used stage quite clearly (emphasis mine):

Quote
2. Consideration of the launch services
The consideration paid under the Amos 6 satellite launch agreement prior to the amendment will be recorded In full for a Amos 17 launch and no additional charge will be required for the Amos 17 launch.

3. Conditions for launch
1.3 Conditions have been agreed with regard to scheduling the launch and priorities in various cases. They were also arranged Conditions enabling the launch of the satellite using a Falcon 9 launcher that includes the first stage flown Previously.

Yes, that's what it says.
Google translate, like Jim, is usually right.
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #119 on: 10/20/2017 08:48 PM »
I can't remember if anyone has already identified it, but new filings were posted today for for Mission 1381, operations to begin NET November 28th from LC-40.

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80703

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80700
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #120 on: 10/20/2017 09:03 PM »
I can't remember if anyone has already identified it, but new filings were posted today for for Mission 1381, operations to begin NET November 28th from LC-40.

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80703

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80700

We think those are CRS-13.  The application for altimeter testing at CCAFS was also granted today.  After looking at those grants together, it appears the first stage is authorized to use its altimeter when it's within 10km of the landing site.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #121 on: 10/20/2017 10:38 PM »
I can't remember if anyone has already identified it, but new filings were posted today for for Mission 1381, operations to begin NET November 28th from LC-40.

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80703

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=80700

We think those are CRS-13.  The application for altimeter testing at CCAFS was also granted today.  After looking at those grants together, it appears the first stage is authorized to use its altimeter when it's within 10km of the landing site.

Ah, I see the problem, my RSS feed registered them being granted today. I remember that now, CRS-13 was originally Nov 28 so it's the only logical answer.
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #122 on: 10/24/2017 12:22 PM »
Looking at the schedule, there is a window at the end of December where SpaceX could have a rocket vertical on all three pads at the same time.    Iridium on SLC-4E, Hispasat on SLC-40, and FH on LC-39A.

That would be quite a Christmas card for Elon to send out.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #123 on: 10/25/2017 04:56 PM »
https://twitter.com/CHenry_SN/status/923205405643329536
Quote
Caleb Henry‏ @CHenry_SN
SpaceX's Patricia Cooper: 2 demo sats launching in next few months, then constellation deployment in 2019. Can start service w/ ~800 sats.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #124 on: 10/25/2017 11:03 PM »
https://twitter.com/CHenry_SN/status/923205405643329536
Quote
Caleb Henry‏ @CHenry_SN
SpaceX's Patricia Cooper: 2 demo sats launching in next few months, then constellation deployment in 2019. Can start service w/ ~800 sats.

Twitter is so.... limited.
Is that deployment of 800 satellites all in 2019, or 2018 and 2019?
How could anyone build 800 satellites in two years? [Rhetorical]
Isn't Iridium bragging about their high speed production building 80 or so in two or so years? [Rhetorical]
Do we have an estimate of how many launches it will take for 800 satellites?

Edit:  This is asked in the Manifest threads for the sole purpose of estimating how many launches will have to be inserted into our manifest and where on the timeline.
The other questions can probably be better discussed elsewhere.
« Last Edit: 10/25/2017 11:05 PM by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #125 on: 10/25/2017 11:14 PM »
https://twitter.com/CHenry_SN/status/923205405643329536
Quote
Caleb Henry‏ @CHenry_SN
SpaceX's Patricia Cooper: 2 demo sats launching in next few months, then constellation deployment in 2019. Can start service w/ ~800 sats.

Twitter is so.... limited.
Is that deployment of 800 satellites all in 2019, or 2018 and 2019?
How could anyone build 800 satellites in two years? [Rhetorical]
Isn't Iridium bragging about their high speed production building 80 or so in two or so years? [Rhetorical]
Do we have an estimate of how many launches it will take for 800 satellites?

Edit:  This is asked in the Manifest threads for the sole purpose of estimating how many launches will have to be inserted into our manifest and where on the timeline.
The other questions can probably be better discussed elsewhere.

Watched the full livestream, it's available here now. Also wrote a brief summary of the SpaceX bits.

Per the manifest thread-relevant question, Ms. Cooper was gently pushed for a timeline and said that limited service would start once 800 or so satellites were launched, and that the timeframe for that was 2020-2021. So between 24-36 months to launch ~800, 2024 to launch all ~4000.
« Last Edit: 10/25/2017 11:15 PM by vaporcobra »
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #126 on: 10/26/2017 05:10 AM »
Just as a general estimate, with 20 satellites of 500kg each per launch, 800 in 24-36 months would require 1-2 launches per month on average. For 24 months, that equates to one launch every 2.6 weeks. For 36 months, every 3.25 weeks.

Basically, double 2017's planned cadence without serving any additional paying customers. With the constellation requiring only LEO launches and Block 5 theoretically allowing for 10 reuses without refurb, it seems entirely possible. Pad availability becomes the major limiting factor at that point.
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #127 on: 10/26/2017 06:14 AM »
Just as a general estimate, with 20 satellites of 500kg each per launch, 800 in 24-36 months would require 1-2 launches per month on average. For 24 months, that equates to one launch every 2.6 weeks. For 36 months, every 3.25 weeks.

Basically, double 2017's planned cadence without serving any additional paying customers. With the constellation requiring only LEO launches and Block 5 theoretically allowing for 10 reuses without refurb, it seems entirely possible. Pad availability becomes the major limiting factor at that point.
It will help having 2 East coast pads. If they can launch from each twice a month, that's 4 flights of capacity per month. The bigger issues will be upper stages, payload dispensers, payload processing, completed satellites, fairings, and after deployment checkout and commissioning. Getting that process and it routine down will take a while to ramp up as well.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #128 on: 10/26/2017 02:44 PM »
Does Halthrone have or will have the ability to produce that number of upper stages + pluss the number required for paying rides?
If BFR hits schedule my question maybe a bit mute.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #129 on: 10/26/2017 03:00 PM »
Speculation on internet constellation launch timings, flight rates, hardware production rates, etc. would be better in the satellite constellation threads instead of the manifest thread for now.  We don't have any firm news on internet constellation launches yet.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #130 on: 10/26/2017 04:18 PM »
Speculation on internet constellation launch timings, flight rates, hardware production rates, etc. would be better in the satellite constellation threads instead of the manifest thread for now.  We don't have any firm news on internet constellation launches yet.

Would it not be consistent to add a single line for Starlink launches, with number/start date TBD?  Also, they plan two test spacecraft by first quarter 2018, probably on a single launch... haven't heard that they are co-manifested, so likely separate launch depending on when license is issued.
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SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #131 on: 10/26/2017 04:23 PM »
Speculation on internet constellation launch timings, flight rates, hardware production rates, etc. would be better in the satellite constellation threads instead of the manifest thread for now.  We don't have any firm news on internet constellation launches yet.

Would it not be consistent to add a single line for Starlink launches, with number/start date TBD?  Also, they plan two test spacecraft by first quarter 2018, probably on a single launch... haven't heard that they are co-manifested, so likely separate launch depending on when license is issued.
I think current speculation is that they are co-manifested with PAZ at the end of January.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42485.40
Edit: added link to PAZ discussion thread
« Last Edit: 10/26/2017 04:26 PM by cppetrie »

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #132 on: 10/27/2017 03:48 AM »
Speculation on internet constellation launch timings, flight rates, hardware production rates, etc. would be better in the satellite constellation threads instead of the manifest thread for now.  We don't have any firm news on internet constellation launches yet.
No, but this does answer questions about whether SpaceX's manifest in 2019 will be full (30 flights or more) or not.

I think it means that they're planning to launch a whole bunch of satellites, so they at least think they'll be full.
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #133 on: 10/28/2017 04:56 AM »
Have we known this yet?
Quote
ABS rescinded its last satellite order, ABS-8, after the U.S. Congress let the Export Import Bank’s charter expire, a political force majeure that botched a contract with Boeing. Ex-Im Bank reopened in December 2015, but still lacks a full board, and cannot finance projects over $10 million. ABS has yet to place a new order for ABS-8, but has described the cancellation as a blessing in disguise because of the announcement of ViaSat-3, against which Choi has said the original design for ABS-8 would have been uncompetitive.
http://spacenews.com/tom-choi-steps-down-from-abs-ceo-position/
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #134 on: 10/28/2017 12:11 PM »
Have we known this yet?
Quote
ABS rescinded its last satellite order, ABS-8, after the U.S. Congress let the Export Import Bank’s charter expire, a political force majeure that botched a contract with Boeing. Ex-Im Bank reopened in December 2015, but still lacks a full board, and cannot finance projects over $10 million. ABS has yet to place a new order for ABS-8, but has described the cancellation as a blessing in disguise because of the announcement of ViaSat-3, against which Choi has said the original design for ABS-8 would have been uncompetitive.
http://spacenews.com/tom-choi-steps-down-from-abs-ceo-position/

Yes, that happened quite a while ago.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #135 on: 10/30/2017 12:49 PM »
NSPO still hopes to launch Formosat-7 sats in May/June, 2018
https://www.inside.com.tw/2017/10/30/formosat-5-cmos-modify
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #136 on: 11/06/2017 06:41 AM »
Quote
The @AMOSSpacecom Amos-17 Ku-/C-/Ka-band sat completes CDR at @Boeing, sched launch to 17E in early 2019 on @SpaceX Falcon 9 w/ 19-yr life.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/927428797657313280

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #137 on: 11/08/2017 05:35 PM »
(found via tweet from Jeff Foust)

Quote
[Reuters] Turkey's Erdogan, Tesla's Musk discuss cooperation with Turkish firms
...
Turkey aims to launch the Turksat 5A satellite in 2020 and the 5B in 2021. In October, Airbus (AIR.PA) submitted the best bid in a tender to build the Turkish satellites.

Kalin said an agreement would be signed with Airbus on Thursday, and Musk would also be present at the meeting as a subcontractor.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #138 on: 11/08/2017 07:48 PM »
Tweet from Emre Kelly:
Quote
I spy...Falcon 9 rockets with landing legs and...Turksat payloads? AP reported that Turksat 5A and 5B could fly in 2020 and 2021, respectively.

Photo (via @GettyImages) shows Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with @SpaceX CEO @ElonMusk today.

Hopefully we'll be adding some more flights to the manifest soon...

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #139 on: 11/09/2017 09:59 AM »
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/928575192275697665
Quote
As part of @AirbusSpace 2-satellite in-orbit delivery contract, Airbus gave customer @turksat launch options. @SpaceX was chosen for both Turksat 5A in 2020 & 5B in 2021. Shown below: 5B, w/ Ka-HTS.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #140 on: 11/10/2017 12:57 PM »
I note on the manifest BFR is penciled in for 2022.

link

Is it sane to change this to September 2022, as the comments "
Quote
But that's our goal, is to try to make the 2022 Mars rendezvous. The Earth-Mars synchronization happens roughly every two years, so every two years there's an opportunity for just to fly to Mars.
make it clear they're not considering ridiculously high energy trajectories.

Sep 26 2022 in principle would allow a Dec 31 2022 landing.
Of course this would be NET, but a NET date which includes Jan 2022 seems wrong.
« Last Edit: 11/10/2017 01:54 PM by gongora »

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #141 on: 11/10/2017 01:56 PM »
A BFR launching to Mars in 2022 is highly aspirational.  I'm not worried about putting a more exact date on it.  If it's still looking possible in three or four years then we can start refining the date on the schedule.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #142 on: 11/11/2017 03:42 AM »
What payloads are actually built and ready for launch, just waiting for a rocket?
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #143 on: 11/11/2017 01:58 PM »
What payloads are actually built and ready for launch, just waiting for a rocket?

All the payloads going up in December for starters. We don't usually hear that payloads are complete until they are shipped to the launch site and we don't even get those reports.

It seems likely that SES-16 (GovSat-1) and SES-12 are both ready to fly. The SES CEO has talked about how long their payloads tend to sit in storage as one reason to go with reused Falcon 9s.

NASA's TESS I think has been complete for awhile now.

Iridium has more satellites built. However, they are constrained by the difficult task of replacing the old sats with the new ones and keeping their coverage going. So, I don't think they can put up a new batch any faster than every 40 or 60 days.

Es'hail-2 and Bangabandhu-1 may also be complete as these were expected to originally fly if Q4 2017 and should fly in Q1 2018.

Edit: I expect STP-2 and Arabsat 6A are also ready to fly since FH was expected to fly in 2017 prior to the Amos-6 incident.

PAZ is complete as it was supposed to fly on the now defunct Ukrainian-Russian Dneper vehicle in 2016.
« Last Edit: 11/11/2017 02:08 PM by rockets4life97 »

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #144 on: 11/11/2017 02:02 PM »
What payloads are actually built and ready for launch, just waiting for a rocket?

Iridium has more satellites built. However, they are constrained by the difficult task of replacing the old sats with the new ones and keeping their coverage going. So, I don't think they can put up a new batch any faster than every 40 or 60 days.


This is precisely correct. :) 

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #145 on: 11/11/2017 02:24 PM »
"40 or 60"... IMprecisely correct. Hehe.
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #146 on: 11/12/2017 03:26 AM »
What payloads are actually built and ready for launch, just waiting for a rocket?

NASA's TESS I think has been complete for awhile now.


TESS isn't ready yet, it's currently going through final testing.  But, that's mainly because testing is scheduled to track with launch date.  So, if the launch had been earlier, the testing would be done earlier as well.  So, this is sort of splitting the difference between "waiting for a rocket" and not.  I wouldn't be surprised to learn that many payloads are similarly scheduled. 

source on TESS being in testing currently: http://spacenews.com/nasa-trims-reserves-and-shifts-schedules-to-find-astrophysics-cost-savings/ 
Quote
... with the spacecraft currently undergoing a series of tests,...
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #147 on: 11/12/2017 03:37 AM »
Looks like Hispasat has been delayed, payload issues maybe?
Quote
The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral will launch the classified Zuma mission from
pad 39A on November 15 at 8:00pm EST. The launch window stretches two hours to 10:00pm EST.
The first stage of the rocket will land back at Cape Canaveral about eight minutes after liftoff. After
that, a Falcon 9 will launch the next Dragon resupply mission to the International Space Station,
CRS-13, currently planned from pad 40, on December 4 at the earliest, at 2:52pm EST. The launch
window will be instantaneous. The launch time gets approx. 22-26 minutes earlier each day. The first
stage of the rocket will land back at Cape Canaveral around eight minutes after liftoff. This could be
followed by the maiden flight of the Falcon 9 Heavy, from pad 39A, and its twin booster landings back
at the Cape, as early as the very end of December or early January TBD. Then, a Falcon 9 is slated
to launch the SES-16/GovSat-1 communications satellite, from pad 40, on mid-January TBA.
http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #148 on: 11/12/2017 06:10 PM »
Looks like Hispasat has been delayed, payload issues maybe?
Quote
The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral will launch the classified Zuma mission from pad 39A on November 15 at 8:00pm EST.

After that, a Falcon 9 will launch the next Dragon resupply mission to the International Space Station, CRS-13, currently planned from pad 40, on December 4 at the earliest, at 2:52pm EST.

This could be followed by the maiden flight of the Falcon 9 Heavy, from pad 39A, and its twin booster landings back at the Cape, as early as the very end of December or early January TBD.

Then, a Falcon 9 is slated to launch the SES-16/GovSat-1 communications satellite, from pad 40, on mid-January TBA.

And a Falcon 9 is slated to take a Dragon capsule on the next resupply mission to the ISS, CRS-14, on February 9, roughly around 11am or noon EST.
http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html

How reliable are the sources for that site? Launching just once every month from the Cape is too slow for SpaceX, maybe the list just contains a subset of launches for which better info is available.

If SES-16 is the next launch after CRS-14 then it might conflict with the Heavy Launch for the barge. Having to go back to shore, unload the booster and sail out again might take several days. The minimal interval between SES-16 and FH-Demo might be as long as one week.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #149 on: 11/12/2017 06:30 PM »
Looks like Hispasat has been delayed, payload issues maybe?
Quote
The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral will launch the classified Zuma mission from pad 39A on November 15 at 8:00pm EST.

After that, a Falcon 9 will launch the next Dragon resupply mission to the International Space Station, CRS-13, currently planned from pad 40, on December 4 at the earliest, at 2:52pm EST.

This could be followed by the maiden flight of the Falcon 9 Heavy, from pad 39A, and its twin booster landings back at the Cape, as early as the very end of December or early January TBD.

Then, a Falcon 9 is slated to launch the SES-16/GovSat-1 communications satellite, from pad 40, on mid-January TBA.

And a Falcon 9 is slated to take a Dragon capsule on the next resupply mission to the ISS, CRS-14, on February 9, roughly around 11am or noon EST.
http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html

How reliable are the sources for that site? Launching just once every month from the Cape is too slow for SpaceX, maybe the list just contains a subset of launches for which better info is available.

He does some of the official photography for SpaceX, he's generally a good source for near-term schedule information.

There are going to be months where SpaceX only launches once from the East Coast, especially when they're launching from the West Coast that month.  The flight rate isn't that high yet.  Even if they do launch 30 times next year that wouldn't be twice from the Cape every month.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #150 on: 11/12/2017 08:13 PM »
How reliable are the sources for that site? Launching just once every month from the Cape is too slow for SpaceX, maybe the list just contains a subset of launches for which better info is available.

He does some of the official photography for SpaceX, he's generally a good source for near-term schedule information.

There are going to be months where SpaceX only launches once from the East Coast, especially when they're launching from the West Coast that month.  The flight rate isn't that high yet.  Even if they do launch 30 times next year that wouldn't be twice from the Cape every month.

Also, December is an exceptional month in terms of pad uncertainty. LC-40 still needs to be put through its paces as a new pad, bug fixes are probable and bigger kinks possible. 39A is also undergoing significant changes for Falcon Heavy, and SpaceX seems intent to aggressively push for a Falcon Heavy launch in Dec or Jan.

All that while still aiming to launch CRS-13 and Iridium-4 in the same month, and it is unsurprising that Hispasat has been pushed back a bit! SpaceX's pad crews are only human ;D
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #151 on: 11/12/2017 08:50 PM »
It seems clear there is likely a second launch opportunity from SLC-40 in December after CRS-13 if we are only considering demonstrated cadence.  But this ignores the fact that the East Coast launch team is going to be working the Falcon Heavy launch quite heavily.  All the activities around integrating and testing a new vehicle for the first time, including multiple dry runs and rehearsals.  If FH goes uber-smoothly and "slips left" then maybe they can still sneak Hispasat in under the wire.  But, with the year-end holidays in there too,  why bother straining everyone for just a few days worth of advantage?  The benefit of being able to get an additional launch within the calendar year is purely nominal (non-space launch usage) and quite arbitrary.
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #152 on: 11/13/2017 04:29 PM »
Further re: speculation that Hispasat 30W-6 could still launch from Canaveral SLC-40 in the very last days of 2017:
Apparently, but not conclusively, no.

Cross-posts from the Hispasat 30W-6 discussion thread:
Has the payload left SSL in Palo Alto and been delivered to SpaceX operations at Cape Canaveral for pre-launch processing?  (I know our NSF contributors are usually very quick to report such things, if they are free to do so.)

It takes a finite amount of time to process the payloads for launch.  What is the average processing time for a geo-comm payload, from delivery to stacking on the launch vehicle?

If that process has not yet started, then perhaps the launch must be delayed into early 2018?

(The focus here on NSF is on the LV, particularly so for Falcon 9--1st stage watches, etc.)

In the Zuma static fire article that Chris G. wrote today he lists the expected flights for the rest of the year, and Hispasat isn't on there.  It seems likely to slip into 2018.

And:
In a June FCC filing Hispasat said "launch and place in operation scheduled for May 2018".  There is typically some gap between launch and placing in operation, so that's a bit vague.  Then in an August press release for another mission the manufacturer said it would be launching later this year.  As noted in the Zuma static fire article, it doesn't seem to actually be on the manifest for 2017.  I'm going with first half of 2018 for now, and will refine the estimated date if we get any more news on the mission.

To re-purpose a phrase:
The Falcon dance card appears to be (very) full through the end of December 2017, and perhaps into the early days of January 2018.
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Offline smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #153 on: 11/14/2017 11:24 AM »
Here is an updated "FPIP" chart - with a new symbol (big star) which stands for a big event - Falcon Heavy Static Fire in mid-December.
It's only a month away  :o

And a usual note:
the chart is basically a guesswork, as there is a little info on Falcon's launch schedule beyond next 3-4 flights.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #154 on: 11/15/2017 01:09 AM »
Another FCC app (crossposting from Reddit).

This is for mission 1389 a RTLS from SLC-40 that will launch in H1 2018. Any idea as to what this one is?

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #155 on: 11/15/2017 01:51 AM »
Another FCC app (crossposting from Reddit).

This is for mission 1389 a RTLS from SLC-40 that will launch in H1 2018. Any idea as to what this one is?

It's not RTLS, it clearly mentions the drone ship.  Probably the first GTO flight of the year (Govsat?).

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #156 on: 11/15/2017 02:02 AM »
On the subject of FCC permits, we are getting a nice reset at the end of the year when the last permit we don't really know the payload for (we've been assuming it was for Hispasat since it's expendable) expires, assuming it isn't actually used by then.  The only active ASDS permit will be the new one mentioned above, and no expendable flights will have active permits (which doesn't mean there won't be more next year, we just haven't seen the paperwork yet).

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #157 on: 11/20/2017 03:12 AM »
I tend not to look at the FAA site nearly as often as I look at the FCC site, but SpaceX should be needing at least 8 new or modified FAA launch licenses through next April/May (including Zuma which apparently won't ever be publicly available on their site, just like Formosat 5.)  Some to watch out for as their flights approach would be FH Demo, GTO flights from SLC-40, PAZ, TESS, GRACE-FO, DM-1, SSO-A.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #158 on: 11/20/2017 04:55 AM »
Has the ZUMA mission been rescheduled? If so; anyone know when?
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #159 on: 11/20/2017 05:16 PM »
Has the ZUMA mission been rescheduled? If so; anyone know when?

No new launch date for Zuma has been determined as of today.
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #160 on: 11/20/2017 06:41 PM »
And it seems, according to Irene Klotz, won’t be until December:

Quote
#SpaceX Zuma off range at least until it reopens after annual maintenance Dec 1
http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/spacex-classified-zuma-launch-delayed-until-least-december

https://twitter.com/free_space/status/932689217599213568
« Last Edit: 11/20/2017 06:42 PM by FutureSpaceTourist »

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #161 on: 11/21/2017 07:47 AM »
I tend not to look at the FAA site nearly as often as I look at the FCC site, but SpaceX should be needing at least 8 new or modified FAA launch licenses through next April/May (including Zuma which apparently won't ever be publicly available on their site, just like Formosat 5.)  Some to watch out for as their flights approach would be FH Demo, GTO flights from SLC-40, PAZ, TESS, GRACE-FO, DM-1, SSO-A.

I believe TESS was contracted through NASA Launch Services and as such won't require a FAA launch license.  Non-commerical.
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #162 on: 11/21/2017 03:47 PM »
Interview with Gwynne Shotwell:

http://spacenews.com/spacex-aims-to-follow-a-banner-year-with-an-even-faster-2018-launch-cadence/

Includes this on launches next year:

Quote
“We will increase our cadence next year about 50 percent,” Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX president and COO, told SpaceNews in an interview last week. “We’ll fly more next year than this year, knock on wood, and I think we will probably level out at about that rate, 30 to 40 per year.”

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #163 on: 11/21/2017 04:17 PM »
So a mature rate of 30 to 40 missions per year for F9 and FH without accounting for the constellation she says. Wow.
« Last Edit: 11/21/2017 04:33 PM by AbuSimbel »
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #164 on: 11/21/2017 04:28 PM »
It's really unlikely they fly more than about 30 next year, unless there are more mystery payloads.  30 should catch them up on their manifest.
« Last Edit: 11/21/2017 05:26 PM by gongora »

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #165 on: 11/21/2017 05:42 PM »
It's really unlikely they fly more than about 30 next year, unless there are more mystery payloads.  30 should catch them up on their manifest.

Doesn't seem like she's even expecting 30 next year. (unless you think they end up with more than 20 this year).

Quote
“We will increase our cadence next year about 50 percent,” Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX president and COO, told SpaceNews in an interview last week. “We’ll fly more next year than this year, knock on wood, and I think we will probably level out at about that rate, 30 to 40 per year.”

But really I think 'cadence' and actual numbers are not the same thing. You can have a general flow that supports x number per year, but actual numbers will generally be less due to breaks in the rhythm. (as was the case this year).

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #166 on: 11/23/2017 12:11 AM »
Did CRS-14 slip a month?

[evertiq] Denmark’s next major space project prepared for launch
Quote
The Atmosphere-Space Interactions Monitor (ASIM), is on its way to the US to be prepared for launch from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida to the International Space Station (ISS).

The launch is scheduled for Tuesday, 13 March 2018, and ASIM is planned for launch on the SpaceX Falcon 9 launcher.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #167 on: 11/24/2017 08:23 PM »
Bangabandhu launch now planned for March 2018
(source)

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #168 on: 11/27/2017 08:57 PM »
https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/935256052240650242
Quote
Chris B - NSF‏ @NASASpaceflight
SpaceX returns to SLC-40 for the next mission - Falcon 9 launch with CRS-13 Dragon. Static Fire is currently waiting on a firm date (Wednesday no longer the target). Launch date now has a NASA planning date of December 8, but don't go booking flights until this all firms up.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #169 on: 11/28/2017 06:52 PM »
FWIW, SpaceX was granted FCC licenses for a launch (Mission 1389) from LC-40 and ASDS recovery NET 1/15/17, almost certainly Govsat.
« Last Edit: 11/28/2017 06:55 PM by vaporcobra »
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #170 on: 11/29/2017 05:26 PM »
Update re SpaceIL (putting it here since I don't see a thread dedicated to this and it's potentially on the SpaceX manifest somewhere)

Quote
... Only two weeks before its completion, $20 million are needed by the end of the year to prevent the project’s termination. This would result in the cancellation of the launch planned for 2018 ...

More details here: http://www.spaceil.com/news/spaceil-alerts-the-national-dream-in-danger-of-closing/


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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #171 on: 12/06/2017 09:56 PM »
Zuma just officially moved to SLC-40.
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #172 on: 12/07/2017 11:57 AM »
I've just noticed that CRS-14 is listed on the manifest as reusing a booster.

Is that an assumption or have I missed an announcement? I thought the CRS-13 statement on reuse said NASA would look at it on a case-by-case basis for each launch and thus, although perhaps likely, it's not yet official whether CRS-14 would reuse?

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #173 on: 12/07/2017 12:49 PM »
I've just noticed that CRS-14 is listed on the manifest as reusing a booster.

Is that an assumption or have I missed an announcement? I thought the CRS-13 statement on reuse said NASA would look at it on a case-by-case basis for each launch and thus, although perhaps likely, it's not yet official whether CRS-14 would reuse?
If you read the details on what NASA did for CRS-13 reuse permission, they're just reviewing SpaceX work. So as long as SpaceX is just as careful, there's no reasonable expectation NASA will say no. Its NASA folks justifying their jobs and covering their rears.
The key is CRS-13/Govsat-1 and Iridium launches going without a hitch. That will add up to 6 (hoperfully successful) relaunches.
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #174 on: 12/07/2017 11:05 PM »
I've just noticed that CRS-14 is listed on the manifest as reusing a booster.

Is that an assumption or have I missed an announcement? I thought the CRS-13 statement on reuse said NASA would look at it on a case-by-case basis for each launch and thus, although perhaps likely, it's not yet official whether CRS-14 would reuse?
If you read the details on what NASA did for CRS-13 reuse permission, they're just reviewing SpaceX work. So as long as SpaceX is just as careful, there's no reasonable expectation NASA will say no. Its NASA folks justifying their jobs and covering their rears.
The key is CRS-13/Govsat-1 and Iridium launches going without a hitch. That will add up to 6 (hoperfully successful) relaunches.

Don’t forget FH Demo adding another 2 flight-proven stages being reflown. ;)

I believe there are 1 or 2 other flight-proven cores without a mission, so at this point we are almost running out of flight-proven stages.

This will change with Block 5 being able to refly 10 times without serious refurb.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #175 on: 12/11/2017 12:34 PM »
I've just noticed that CRS-14 is listed on the manifest as reusing a booster.

Is that an assumption or have I missed an announcement? I thought the CRS-13 statement on reuse said NASA would look at it on a case-by-case basis for each launch and thus, although perhaps likely, it's not yet official whether CRS-14 would reuse?
If you read the details on what NASA did for CRS-13 reuse permission, they're just reviewing SpaceX work. So as long as SpaceX is just as careful, there's no reasonable expectation NASA will say no. Its NASA folks justifying their jobs and covering their rears.
The key is CRS-13/Govsat-1 and Iridium launches going without a hitch. That will add up to 6 (hoperfully successful) relaunches.

Don’t forget FH Demo adding another 2 flight-proven stages being reflown. ;)

I believe there are 1 or 2 other flight-proven cores without a mission, so at this point we are almost running out of flight-proven stages.

This will change with Block 5 being able to refly 10 times without serious refurb.

Don't count your chickens before they hatch.  Although that is the design goal; they may not hit it with the first iteration.
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #176 on: 12/11/2017 07:16 PM »
This thread isn't for general discussion of reuse.  It's for discussing entries on the launch manifest.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #177 on: 12/14/2017 04:04 PM »
Update re SpaceIL (putting it here since I don't see a thread dedicated to this and it's potentially on the SpaceX manifest somewhere)

Quote
... Only two weeks before its completion, $20 million are needed by the end of the year to prevent the project’s termination. This would result in the cancellation of the launch planned for 2018 ...

More details here: http://www.spaceil.com/news/spaceil-alerts-the-national-dream-in-danger-of-closing/

Update:

Quote
SpaceIL making final fundraising push for lunar lander mission
by Jeff Foust — December 14, 2017

WASHINGTON — SpaceIL, the Israeli team in the Google Lunar X Prize competition, says it needs to raise $7.5 million in less than a week in order to complete its lander and retain its launch contract.

http://spacenews.com/spaceil-making-final-fundraising-push-for-lunar-lander-mission/

Still not revealing which SpaceX launch they are aiming for and admit it's very tight - even with funding - to get all the required testing done in time to meet Xprize deadline of end of March 2018.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #178 on: 12/14/2017 04:11 PM »
Update:

Quote
SpaceIL making final fundraising push for lunar lander mission
by Jeff Foust — December 14, 2017

WASHINGTON — SpaceIL, the Israeli team in the Google Lunar X Prize competition, says it needs to raise $7.5 million in less than a week in order to complete its lander and retain its launch contract.

http://spacenews.com/spaceil-making-final-fundraising-push-for-lunar-lander-mission/

Still not revealing which SpaceX launch they are aiming for and admit it's very tight - even with funding - to get all the required testing done in time to meet Xprize deadline of end of March 2018.

Saying it's a supersync GTO comsat launch is a lot more information than we had before, although not enough to really figure out which flight.  It doesn't sound like they have any intention at all of launching before the Xprize deadline, and they don't control their schedule anyway as a secondary payload.
« Last Edit: 12/14/2017 04:16 PM by gongora »

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #179 on: 12/15/2017 01:10 AM »

...
Saying it's a supersync GTO comsat launch is a lot more information than we had before, although not enough to really figure out which flight. 
...

Well, looks like it is enough :)
Of course this is enough only -
IF -- 1. the launch of that primary payload is indeed scheduled for the first quarter
AND
IF -- 2. that primary payload is indeed going for SUPERSYNC

THEN

for the first quarter SpaceX has four GTO missions:

Jan 30, 2018...SES-16 (GovSat-1)... ~4000 kg
Feb xx, 2018...SES-12...5300 kg
early (?) 2018...Hispasat 30W-6 (1F)...6092 kg
Mar xx, 2018...Bangabandhu-1...wt unknown

Hispasat is too heavy for supersync GTO with current version of F9 (actually, it's too heavy for any co-passenger);
SES-12 is too heavy as well - if we take into account SpaceIL weight;
SES-16 (GovSat-1) is way too early;

Which leaves us with the only option - Bangabandhu-1

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #180 on: 12/15/2017 07:24 AM »
A rarity... Telkom's CEO said on Thursday that Telkom 4 is to be launched in May 2018, vs. the original August 2018 NET as of several months ago. Google Translate is clearly struggling, but the reason provided for the movement was "faster manufacturing process." Unclear if that refers to SpaceX or Telkom, but it could be possible that Telkom 4 has moved to a flight-proven booster to get an earlier launch date, Iridium-4 is (sort of) a precedent for that.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BctC2AbnmXX/
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #181 on: 12/15/2017 11:43 AM »
A rarity... Telkom's CEO said on Thursday that Telkom 4 is to be launched in May 2018, vs. the original August 2018 NET as of several months ago. Google Translate is clearly struggling, but the reason provided for the movement was "faster manufacturing process." Unclear if that refers to SpaceX or Telkom, but it could be possible that Telkom 4 has moved to a flight-proven booster to get an earlier launch date, Iridium-4 is (sort of) a precedent for that.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BctC2AbnmXX/

Could just be that when others move to reused boosters, the waiting time for new also reduces.

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