Firefly Space : Company and Development General Thread

[trimeta]

Apparently all launch operations at Vandenberg are halted until the US government is satisfied that Polyakov and Noosphere have fully divested themselves of Firefly.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-29/firefly-owner-max-polyakov-to-sell-stake-in-rocket-startup

[TrevorMonty]

Apparently all launch operations at Vandenberg are halted until the US government is satisfied that Polyakov and Noosphere have fully divested themselves of Firefly.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-29/firefly-owner-max-polyakov-to-sell-stake-in-rocket-startup

Would've been nice to see Alpha make it to orbit before government grounds it.



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[russianhalo117]

Apparently all launch operations at Vandenberg are halted until the US government is satisfied that Polyakov and Noosphere have fully divested themselves of Firefly.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-29/firefly-owner-max-polyakov-to-sell-stake-in-rocket-startup

It does not pertain just to VSFB. CCSFS, upon outside government direction,  has frozen anything involving launch campaign operations at Firefly's leased properties on the installation.

[edkyle99]

Why?   Why now?   Are there laws in place that provide reasons, or is this just a consequence of the recent U.S. election results? 

 - Ed Kyle

[RonM]

Why?   Why now?   Are there laws in place that provide reasons, or is this just a consequence of the recent U.S. election results? 

 - Ed Kyle

Read the article.

While Ukraine is an ally of the U.S., its ongoing conflict with Russia has increased worries about what might happen to valuable technology inside of the country. Russia has been building up forces at the Ukrainian border, heightening fears that it will invade the country.

[zubenelgenubi]

Why?   Why now?   Are there laws in place that provide reasons, or is this just a consequence of the recent U.S. election results? 

 - Ed Kyle

Read the article.

While Ukraine is an ally of the U.S., its ongoing conflict with Russia has increased worries about what might happen to valuable technology inside of the country. Russia has been building up forces at the Ukrainian border, heightening fears that it will invade the country.

Unconvincing.

If the Russians invade and capture of facilities in eastern Ukraine appears imminent, then the Ukrainians blow the works: scorched earth. Not a test mount or a hard drive left intact.

It's not like they've never done it before.

(Besides, if things get that bad, other, larger, possibly thermonuclear, fish 🐟 will be frying.  But, that's not for discussion here.)

[edkyle99]

Why?   Why now?   Are there laws in place that provide reasons, or is this just a consequence of the recent U.S. election results? 

 - Ed Kyle

Read the article.

While Ukraine is an ally of the U.S., its ongoing conflict with Russia has increased worries about what might happen to valuable technology inside of the country. Russia has been building up forces at the Ukrainian border, heightening fears that it will invade the country.

OK then, why hasn't the U.S. Government demanded that Northrop Grumman immediately stop using Ukrainian first stages for its Antares rocket?  Same logic applies, yes?

 - Ed Kyle

[matthewkantar]

Why?   Why now?   Are there laws in place that provide reasons, or is this just a consequence of the recent U.S. election results? 

 - Ed Kyle

Read the article.

While Ukraine is an ally of the U.S., its ongoing conflict with Russia has increased worries about what might happen to valuable technology inside of the country. Russia has been building up forces at the Ukrainian border, heightening fears that it will invade the country.

OK then, why hasn't the U.S. Government demanded that Northrop Grumman immediately stop using Ukrainian first stages for its Antares rocket?  Same logic applies, yes?

 - Ed Kyle

I think Antares is a case of NG buying gear from the Ukrainians, Firefly seems to have a more of an international design and fabrication operation going.

[russianhalo117]

Why?   Why now?   Are there laws in place that provide reasons, or is this just a consequence of the recent U.S. election results? 

 - Ed Kyle

Read the article.

While Ukraine is an ally of the U.S., its ongoing conflict with Russia has increased worries about what might happen to valuable technology inside of the country. Russia has been building up forces at the Ukrainian border, heightening fears that it will invade the country.

OK then, why hasn't the U.S. Government demanded that Northrop Grumman immediately stop using Ukrainian first stages for its Antares rocket?  Same logic applies, yes?

 - Ed Kyle

I think Antares is a case of NG buying gear from the Ukrainians, Firefly seems to have a more of an international design and fabrication operation going.

It also has to do with the executive makeup and those investing in the company. The SEC is an involved party with other USG entities that triggered their ordered suspension of company operations on US and state government installations until the list of red flag issues is fully rectified.

[Tomness]

Why?   Why now?   Are there laws in place that provide reasons, or is this just a consequence of the recent U.S. election results? 

 - Ed Kyle

Read the article.

While Ukraine is an ally of the U.S., its ongoing conflict with Russia has increased worries about what might happen to valuable technology inside of the country. Russia has been building up forces at the Ukrainian border, heightening fears that it will invade the country.

OK then, why hasn't the U.S. Government demanded that Northrop Grumman immediately stop using Ukrainian first stages for its Antares rocket?  Same logic applies, yes?

 - Ed Kyle

Because ULA won't get their RD-180s and their first stages....

[russianhalo117]

Why?   Why now?   Are there laws in place that provide reasons, or is this just a consequence of the recent U.S. election results? 

 - Ed Kyle

Read the article.

While Ukraine is an ally of the U.S., its ongoing conflict with Russia has increased worries about what might happen to valuable technology inside of the country. Russia has been building up forces at the Ukrainian border, heightening fears that it will invade the country.

OK then, why hasn't the U.S. Government demanded that Northrop Grumman immediately stop using Ukrainian first stages for its Antares rocket?  Same logic applies, yes?

 - Ed Kyle

Because ULA won't get their RD-180s and their first stages....

They have all of their RD-180's in the US.

[Tomness]

Why?   Why now?   Are there laws in place that provide reasons, or is this just a consequence of the recent U.S. election results? 

 - Ed Kyle

Read the article.

While Ukraine is an ally of the U.S., its ongoing conflict with Russia has increased worries about what might happen to valuable technology inside of the country. Russia has been building up forces at the Ukrainian border, heightening fears that it will invade the country.

OK then, why hasn't the U.S. Government demanded that Northrop Grumman immediately stop using Ukrainian first stages for its Antares rocket?  Same logic applies, yes?

 - Ed Kyle

Because ULA won't get their RD-180s and their first stages....

They have all of their RD-180's in the US.

What about 1st stages from Ukraine?

[russianhalo117]

Why?   Why now?   Are there laws in place that provide reasons, or is this just a consequence of the recent U.S. election results? 

 - Ed Kyle

Read the article.

While Ukraine is an ally of the U.S., its ongoing conflict with Russia has increased worries about what might happen to valuable technology inside of the country. Russia has been building up forces at the Ukrainian border, heightening fears that it will invade the country.

OK then, why hasn't the U.S. Government demanded that Northrop Grumman immediately stop using Ukrainian first stages for its Antares rocket?  Same logic applies, yes?

 - Ed Kyle

Because ULA won't get their RD-180s and their first stages....

They have all of their RD-180's in the US.

What about 1st stages from Ukraine?

ULA's stages are made in the US by ULA in Decatur, Alabama. ULA has all of their engines. There is a stockpile of NG's Antares first stage at the factory that can be moved by rail, road and sea to another country. With coordination they can move everything in the factory elsewhere (reference WWII). In West Virginia they should by now have their stsges for this year. As for RD-181's they have enough for at least this year from the Russian Federation. They are looking at additional options for first stage engines as part of their upgrades path for NASA's CRS-3 programme phase.

[Hug]

Hmm, so original seed round was 200 mil from Noosphere/Polyakov. Then in May 2021 they raised 75 mil for series A, planning to raise another 300 mil after the first launch in 2021. So that gives us 275mil total funding. From the CNBC interview, they spent 250mil to get to first launch and their burn rate is 10mil/month. Alpha launched in September 2, so that's 4 months of burn; 40mil; putting them at 290mil, exceeding the 275mil raised. However they do have contracts for funding as well; for instance NASA CLPS contact has paid them 50 mil so far, but then again; 250mil to first launch might not have included Blue Moon work. So it is bad vibes that they haven't done the 300 mil raise. And then we have Lauren Lyons leaving the company after joining as Chief Operating Officer in August.

The Noosphere/Polyakov situation is probably significantly affecting their ability to raise money, because before they can raise any money, Polyakov has to first sell his ~0.5 bil $ stake so that they can do launches again; so the 300 mil raise actually has to raise 800 mil. And loosing your lead investor also always hurts.

https://techcrunch.com/2021/05/04/firefly-aerospace-raises-75m-series-a-at-a-1b-valuation-plus-100m-in-secondary-sale/

https://twitter.com/payloadspace/status/1478429104344952834

[Jim]

Why?   Why now?   Are there laws in place that provide reasons, or is this just a consequence of the recent U.S. election results? 

 - Ed Kyle

Read the article.

While Ukraine is an ally of the U.S., its ongoing conflict with Russia has increased worries about what might happen to valuable technology inside of the country. Russia has been building up forces at the Ukrainian border, heightening fears that it will invade the country.

OK then, why hasn't the U.S. Government demanded that Northrop Grumman immediately stop using Ukrainian first stages for its Antares rocket?  Same logic applies, yes?

 - Ed Kyle

Less than 50% of the rocket

[edzieba]

Firefly have just $9.8m in NASA LSP contracts: https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-awards-venture-class-launch-services-demonstration-2-contract

[edkyle99]

Less than 50% of the rocket

 - Ed Kyle

[edkyle99]

Hmm, so original seed round was 200 mil from Noosphere/Polyakov. Then in May 2021 they raised 75 mil for series A, planning to raise another 300 mil after the first launch in 2021. So that gives us 275mil total funding. From the CNBC interview, they spent 250mil to get to first launch and their burn rate is 10mil/month. Alpha launched in September 2, so that's 4 months of burn; 40mil; putting them at 290mil, exceeding the 275mil raised. However they do have contracts for funding as well; for instance NASA CLPS contact has paid them 50 mil so far, but then again; 250mil to first launch might not have included Blue Moon work. So it is bad vibes that they haven't done the 300 mil raise. And then we have Lauren Lyons leaving the company after joining as Chief Operating Officer in August.

If Polyakov is being forced to sell his stake in the company, who is buying?  Seems to me Firefly should have value.  That rocket looks like it should work, and those engines or their derivatives may have applications beyond this rocket.

 - Ed Kyle

[TrevorMonty]

Hmm, so original seed round was 200 mil from Noosphere/Polyakov. Then in May 2021 they raised 75 mil for series A, planning to raise another 300 mil after the first launch in 2021. So that gives us 275mil total funding. From the CNBC interview, they spent 250mil to get to first launch and their burn rate is 10mil/month. Alpha launched in September 2, so that's 4 months of burn; 40mil; putting them at 290mil, exceeding the 275mil raised. However they do have contracts for funding as well; for instance NASA CLPS contact has paid them 50 mil so far, but then again; 250mil to first launch might not have included Blue Moon work. So it is bad vibes that they haven't done the 300 mil raise. And then we have Lauren Lyons leaving the company after joining as Chief Operating Officer in August.

If Polyakov is being forced to sell his stake in the company, who is buying?  Seems to me Firefly should have value.  That rocket looks like it should work, and those engines or their derivatives may have applications beyond this rocket.

 - Ed Kyle

They could've gone public via SPARC 6months ago and done alright. Unfortunately SPARC market for new LV companies isn't what it was.


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[edzieba]

Hmm, so original seed round was 200 mil from Noosphere/Polyakov. Then in May 2021 they raised 75 mil for series A, planning to raise another 300 mil after the first launch in 2021. So that gives us 275mil total funding. From the CNBC interview, they spent 250mil to get to first launch and their burn rate is 10mil/month. Alpha launched in September 2, so that's 4 months of burn; 40mil; putting them at 290mil, exceeding the 275mil raised. However they do have contracts for funding as well; for instance NASA CLPS contact has paid them 50 mil so far, but then again; 250mil to first launch might not have included Blue Moon work. So it is bad vibes that they haven't done the 300 mil raise. And then we have Lauren Lyons leaving the company after joining as Chief Operating Officer in August.

If Polyakov is being forced to sell his stake in the company, who is buying?  Seems to me Firefly should have value.  That rocket looks like it should work, and those engines or their derivatives may have applications beyond this rocket.

 - Ed Kyle

The problem for Polyakov is that it's a buyers' market: buyers know he must sell (or the company goes under and he's left with nothing barring a pittance from a bankruptcy auction). The longer a buyer waits, the shorter the time Firefly has left as a going concern and the greater the urgency to sell. It is in a buyers interest to wait as long as possible for maximum pressure, and to bid as close as possible to what they expect Firefly to be worth at bankruptcy auction rather than what they expect it to be worth as a going concern, because if they wait slightly longer that's what they'd be paying.