Author Topic: ASAP on board with NASA's DSG as stepping stone to Mars  (Read 39675 times)

Offline eric z

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Re: ASAP on board with NASA's DSG as stepping stone to Mars
« Reply #60 on: 06/21/2017 01:55 PM »
 Matt, Great minds must think alike, I couldn't have said it better myself! 8) I notice Stephen Hawking is calling for a return to the moon, too. [Today's Washington Post]
Seriously, I could differ a bit here and there, but you are definitely nailing the issue. Here at NSF I respectfully feel that collectively people can lose sight of the forest for all the trees sometimes. Without a lander-element this is going to get old really fast, IMHO. DSG/H are parts of a plan; not really a plan in and of itself.
 Congress?Admin bigshots need to say to NASA--"We're moving outta here; first phase is to resume manned exploration of different lunar sites leading promptly towards 2 or 3 outposts; with all needed lunar-orbit support, comm sats, etc, etc. The asteroid/Mars-moon thing is running almost simultaneously [hey, I just learned how to use my spell-checker! ::)] and by golly we WILL land there during the early 30s!" NASA leads but incorporates international and commercial as much as possible--Stop Talking and Powerpointing and get rolling already. Fly,Fly Fly--Take Mr. Musk up on his offer to give slots to NASA people; hell he's got one in the corp now! Let the urgency of the good old days be rekindled, but stop micromanaging everything! Yes, kiddies the budget needs a big plus-up; but we should demand much greater results. Better/faster for the next 20-30 years; forget cheaper. Space is NOT the area to get cheapskate with anymore-once we get established more out there things can settle into their more normal economic state--I truly feel we are rushing a false "commercialism/privatize" mentality very inorganically these days instead of a massive, almost war-like all-out push outwards as was envisioned when I was running around making a wooden Gemini capsule in my back yard! Enough with the studies and commissions and white papers already!
  Don't get me wrong, though. Of course reusability and the other cutting-edge advancements of New Space have a huge role to play in what I'm talking about. Smarter minds than me can figure out all this. All I'm trying to say is: In the short-mid term use all the assets we  have to get jump-started. One last point; I feel strongly that the USG has every right, thru NASA or other entities to own space stations, bases, spaceships, etc. for the good of all our people: No one, well hopefully no-one, disputes having National Labs, NIH, etc. but I know this isn't a very popular viewpoint here sometimes...A strong government-led push is what got all this going in the first place, with the great support of industry, of course.
« Last Edit: 06/21/2017 05:55 PM by eric z »

Offline Khadgars

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Re: ASAP on board with NASA's DSG as stepping stone to Mars
« Reply #61 on: 06/21/2017 10:38 PM »
No country except maybe China can afford to fund a lunar architecture with earth as your starting point. Apollo did it at huge cost and Constellation tried.

If the starting point is 2.5km/s from lunar surface and only thing required is lander capable of 5-5.5km/s then develop costs are lot lower. A lot easier sell especially if it could be operation within 5yrs of approval. I suspect there will be cargo landers operating by time DSG is in place, making development of human lander more affordable than it is now.

China is piling up debt faster than we are, they wouldn't be able to afford it either.  The DSG as you pointed out makes a lot of sense for a one off development lander, a lot easier to get from lunar orbit to the lunar surface.

Online Coastal Ron

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Re: ASAP on board with NASA's DSG as stepping stone to Mars
« Reply #62 on: 06/23/2017 05:59 AM »
No country except maybe China can afford to fund a lunar architecture with earth as your starting point. Apollo did it at huge cost and Constellation tried.

If the starting point is 2.5km/s from lunar surface and only thing required is lander capable of 5-5.5km/s then develop costs are lot lower. A lot easier sell especially if it could be operation within 5yrs of approval. I suspect there will be cargo landers operating by time DSG is in place, making development of human lander more affordable than it is now.

China is piling up debt faster than we are, they wouldn't be able to afford it either.  The DSG as you pointed out makes a lot of sense for a one off development lander, a lot easier to get from lunar orbit to the lunar surface.

Of course China can afford it - it would only be a small part of their already large national debt.

We here in the U.S. can afford it too. There is no constitutional limit on how much money NASA gets.

All that the U.S., China, and any other nation needs is a "need" to go to the Moon. A justification to spend money on doing that as opposed to whatever other priorities they have here on Earth. Which is not a new situation, and is why the Constellation program was so easy to kill - going to the Moon was no longer a priority for the U.S. Government in 2010.

Does anyone think that situation has changed?
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

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Re: ASAP on board with NASA's DSG as stepping stone to Mars
« Reply #63 on: 06/23/2017 06:03 AM »
Not much... But it should. Leave Mars to Elon, I say. When and if he's ready to go - if he and his investors want some technical and infrastructure help; he can only say no, but offer it when the time comes.

And SLS/Orion are not strictly needed for Lunar operations - but it is a far better use for them than Mars at this point.
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Offline AncientU

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Re: ASAP on board with NASA's DSG as stepping stone to Mars
« Reply #64 on: 06/23/2017 02:22 PM »
No country except maybe China can afford to fund a lunar architecture with earth as your starting point. Apollo did it at huge cost and Constellation tried.

If the starting point is 2.5km/s from lunar surface and only thing required is lander capable of 5-5.5km/s then develop costs are lot lower. A lot easier sell especially if it could be operation within 5yrs of approval. I suspect there will be cargo landers operating by time DSG is in place, making development of human lander more affordable than it is now.

China is piling up debt faster than we are, they wouldn't be able to afford it either.  The DSG as you pointed out makes a lot of sense for a one off development lander, a lot easier to get from lunar orbit to the lunar surface.

Of course China can afford it - it would only be a small part of their already large national debt.

We here in the U.S. can afford it too. There is no constitutional limit on how much money NASA gets.

All that the U.S., China, and any other nation needs is a "need" to go to the Moon. A justification to spend money on doing that as opposed to whatever other priorities they have here on Earth. Which is not a new situation, and is why the Constellation program was so easy to kill - going to the Moon was no longer a priority for the U.S. Government in 2010.

Does anyone think that situation has changed?

China has a need: prestige.  To be the only Nation that has the capability to go to the Moon would have huge propaganda value for China.  If it offers to partner with ESA for a Moon Village, they can claim de facto leadership in space.

Assuming that this scenario unfolds, the USG can cede this to China -- or make it a priority again.
« Last Edit: 06/23/2017 02:24 PM by AncientU »
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Online ncb1397

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Re: ASAP on board with NASA's DSG as stepping stone to Mars
« Reply #65 on: 06/23/2017 04:46 PM »
Since a lunar lander came up here with some debate about whether other countries could afford a lander...some new information (to me) about European interest in the lander component.

Quote
In the meantime, Europe is advancing its plans for a large, robotic Moon lander closely associated with the Deep Space Gateway. The lander is expected to collect lunar soil samples and shoot them back to the station, where they can be delivered back to Earth by astronauts. The lander might also include a rover that would embark on what might become a record-breaking journey across the lunar surface, toward Amundsen crater near the Moon’s south pole.

The European effort, known by some as HLEPP, the Human Lunar Exploration Precursor Program, would pave the way for a larger crewed lander that could be based at the Deep Space Gateway. At the international partner meeting, engineers confirmed the capability of the station to support human expeditions to the surface. However, the station apparently would not be able to descend to low-lunar orbit, which would be the most convenient option for staging lunar landings.
http://www.planetary.org/blogs/guest-blogs/2017/20170607-iss-partners-dsg.html

Offline UltraViolet9

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Re: ASAP on board with NASA's DSG as stepping stone to Mars
« Reply #66 on: 06/23/2017 07:56 PM »
some new information (to me) about European interest in the lander component.

ESA has had a low-level lunar lander effort ongoing for some time.  This article dates to 2009, for example:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/234503467_An_ESA_precursor_mission_to_human_exploration_of_the_Moon

The question is whether the lunar lander effort can get enough traction to obtain substantial funding from ESA member governments and ramp up.  Even with a lunar advocate like Worner at the Director-General's helm the past couple years, there doesn't seem to be much positive budget movement in this direction.

Maybe the DSG will change that.  But even the DSG doesn't have funding in the current budget before Congress, so any lunar plans will probably remain at these informal, low-level interagency discussions for at least a couple more years.

« Last Edit: 06/23/2017 07:59 PM by UltraViolet9 »

Offline TrevorMonty

Read price tag of $1.5B to develop 2 stage robotic lander. 2nd stage came back to DSG with sample. Could be reused with new 1st stage.
Their R&D might be better spent on using commercially available GLXP landers. If launched from DSG some could do a sample return. Moon Express should be capable of round trip returning <10kg.

Online Robotbeat

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Re: ASAP on board with NASA's DSG as stepping stone to Mars
« Reply #68 on: 06/24/2017 05:22 AM »
No country except maybe China can afford to fund a lunar architecture with earth as your starting point. Apollo did it at huge cost and Constellation tried.

If the starting point is 2.5km/s from lunar surface and only thing required is lander capable of 5-5.5km/s then develop costs are lot lower. A lot easier sell especially if it could be operation within 5yrs of approval. I suspect there will be cargo landers operating by time DSG is in place, making development of human lander more affordable than it is now.

China is piling up debt faster than we are, they wouldn't be able to afford it either.  The DSG as you pointed out makes a lot of sense for a one off development lander, a lot easier to get from lunar orbit to the lunar surface.
China just paid a Ukrainian company to modernize the Soviet lunar lander design and give them the plans. China could easily beat us back to the Moon as we seem to be pouring all our money into an oversized launcher and capsule. At least for the Program of Record.
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Offline Lars-J

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Re: ASAP on board with NASA's DSG as stepping stone to Mars
« Reply #69 on: 06/24/2017 06:02 AM »
China is not going to "beat us" to anything in space. Their human spaceflight pace in the last decade has been a snails pace (being generous) - they only spend the bare minimum to make slow progress. They are not going to start a race anytime soon, so don't count on them creating a race to the moon.

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Re: ASAP on board with NASA's DSG as stepping stone to Mars
« Reply #70 on: 06/24/2017 06:02 AM »
Isn't the Soviet lander a bit of a too-basic, one man design?!
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Online Coastal Ron

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Re: ASAP on board with NASA's DSG as stepping stone to Mars
« Reply #71 on: 06/24/2017 06:31 AM »
All that the U.S., China, and any other nation needs is a "need" to go to the Moon. A justification to spend money on doing that as opposed to whatever other priorities they have here on Earth. Which is not a new situation, and is why the Constellation program was so easy to kill - going to the Moon was no longer a priority for the U.S. Government in 2010.

Does anyone think that situation has changed?

China has a need: prestige.

I see no evidence of that, especially since China's space plans are progressing slowly. If anything they are focusing their "exploration" money on building up their presence in the South China Sea, which has a much larger prestige and economic impact than going to the Moon would have.

Quote
To be the only Nation that has the capability to go to the Moon would have huge propaganda value for China.

Maybe. Although isn't it likely that Elon Musk will be on Mars before China lands on our Moon? And if the BFR/BFS combo can land on Mars, then landing on our Moon will be doable - and likely far more impressive than anything China can build. Already China's expendable rockets are looking pretty antiquated, even the new Long March 5.

Quote
If it offers to partner with ESA for a Moon Village, they can claim de facto leadership in space.

Well, except for that guy named Elon Musk. Who is going to Mars. In a giant reusable spaceship.

Quote
Assuming that this scenario unfolds, the USG can cede this to China -- or make it a priority again.

Just because the U.S. Government may not want to send U.S. Government employees back to our Moon doesn't mean we are "ceding" our Moon to anyone. Just like we didn't "own" our Moon after landing on it, neither will anyone else.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Online guckyfan

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Re: ASAP on board with NASA's DSG as stepping stone to Mars
« Reply #72 on: 06/24/2017 09:30 AM »
China is not going to "beat us" to anything in space. Their human spaceflight pace in the last decade has been a snails pace (being generous) - they only spend the bare minimum to make slow progress. They are not going to start a race anytime soon, so don't count on them creating a race to the moon.

Yes they are slow. But at least they are moving forward. Who else does that?

Offline AncientU

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Re: ASAP on board with NASA's DSG as stepping stone to Mars
« Reply #73 on: 06/24/2017 09:47 AM »
All that the U.S., China, and any other nation needs is a "need" to go to the Moon. A justification to spend money on doing that as opposed to whatever other priorities they have here on Earth. Which is not a new situation, and is why the Constellation program was so easy to kill - going to the Moon was no longer a priority for the U.S. Government in 2010.

Does anyone think that situation has changed?

China has a need: prestige.

I see no evidence of that, especially since China's space plans are progressing slowly. If anything they are focusing their "exploration" money on building up their presence in the South China Sea, which has a much larger prestige and economic impact than going to the Moon would have.

Quote
To be the only Nation that has the capability to go to the Moon would have huge propaganda value for China.

Maybe. Although isn't it likely that Elon Musk will be on Mars before China lands on our Moon? And if the BFR/BFS combo can land on Mars, then landing on our Moon will be doable - and likely far more impressive than anything China can build. Already China's expendable rockets are looking pretty antiquated, even the new Long March 5.

Quote
If it offers to partner with ESA for a Moon Village, they can claim de facto leadership in space.

Well, except for that guy named Elon Musk. Who is going to Mars. In a giant reusable spaceship.

Quote
Assuming that this scenario unfolds, the USG can cede this to China -- or make it a priority again.

Just because the U.S. Government may not want to send U.S. Government employees back to our Moon doesn't mean we are "ceding" our Moon to anyone. Just like we didn't "own" our Moon after landing on it, neither will anyone else.

So you thing the USG with a bigger space budget than the rest of the world will just sit this one out?
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Offline darkenfast

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Re: ASAP on board with NASA's DSG as stepping stone to Mars
« Reply #74 on: 06/25/2017 07:04 AM »
Maybe we don't "own" the Moon, but that doesn't mean a country like China can't come along and treat it just as they have the South China Sea.   Their only claim there is that they have installed military installations and therefore, it's theirs.  If China feels that they have a reason to claim a chunk of space and that no one has the backbone to stand up to them, then they will claim it. 

Offline Oli

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Re: ASAP on board with NASA's DSG as stepping stone to Mars
« Reply #75 on: 06/25/2017 10:29 AM »
China has a need: prestige.

There are other far cheaper ways to gain prestige than to repeat a manned lunar landing.

Curiosity was prestigious for NASA, Rosetta for ESA. Those so-called flagship science missions are the future of prestige in spaceflight. In contrast to human spaceflight there are still plenty of targets. China can do something new instead of just copying what the US has done half a century ago.
« Last Edit: 06/25/2017 10:32 AM by Oli »

Offline Lars-J

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Re: ASAP on board with NASA's DSG as stepping stone to Mars
« Reply #76 on: 06/25/2017 04:08 PM »
China is not going to "beat us" to anything in space. Their human spaceflight pace in the last decade has been a snails pace (being generous) - they only spend the bare minimum to make slow progress. They are not going to start a race anytime soon, so don't count on them creating a race to the moon.

Yes they are slow. But at least they are moving forward. Who else does that?

Pretty much everyone? And are you blind to the progress in this country? (Commercial space/crew on top of what NASA is doing)

Online guckyfan

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Re: ASAP on board with NASA's DSG as stepping stone to Mars
« Reply #77 on: 06/25/2017 06:39 PM »

Pretty much everyone? And are you blind to the progress in this country? (Commercial space/crew on top of what NASA is doing)

I don't see NASA moving forward. And I did not want to mention SpaceX.

Offline redliox

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Re: ASAP on board with NASA's DSG as stepping stone to Mars
« Reply #78 on: 06/25/2017 06:50 PM »
Do we have any guesses where the DSG will ultimately be placed?  Specifically as in what type of lunar orbit or Lagrange point.  I assume NASA is still eyeing either high elliptical or one of those DRO variations.

I ask this because it'll influence the needs of a future (potentially reusable) lunar lander; closer to the moon the less fuel needs.  I furthermore refer to the needs of a crewed lander; a cargo lander would probably just be sent one-way to Luna itself from Earth.
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Offline TrevorMonty

Do we have any guesses where the DSG will ultimately be placed?  Specifically as in what type of lunar orbit or Lagrange point.  I assume NASA is still eyeing either high elliptical or one of those DRO variations.

I ask this because it'll influence the needs of a future (potentially reusable) lunar lander; closer to the moon the less fuel needs.  I furthermore refer to the needs of a crewed lander; a cargo lander would probably just be sent one-way to Luna itself from Earth.
NRO is favoured at present. See link on orbit info. NB DSG can move between orbits while vacant, crew missions could visit it at NRO followed by EML2 the next year.

http://spirit.as.utexas.edu/~fiso/telecon/Whitley_4-13-16/

Tags: DSG JAXA