Author Topic: SpaceX Falcon Heavy Discussion (Thread 6)  (Read 551569 times)

Offline Electric Paint

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Re: SpaceX Falcon Heavy Discussion (Thread 6)
« Reply #620 on: 04/25/2018 04:21 pm »
[edit/gongora: trimming out the JWST stuff]

But to get back on topic, has anyone heard info about where the side boosters from the inaugural launch will be kept? My vote is for the US Space & Rocket Center in Huntsville.

What is the earliest FH could be certified for Air Force and NASA missions?
Probably a lot quicker than it took for F9. Although FH will surely have to fly in its Block 5 configuration several times before that happens.
« Last Edit: 04/25/2018 04:31 pm by gongora »

Offline cppetrie

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Re: SpaceX Falcon Heavy Discussion (Thread 6)
« Reply #621 on: 04/25/2018 04:24 pm »
What is the earliest FH could be certified for Air Force and NASA missions?
STP-2 and ArabSat will be flights 2 and 3. Those are scheduled for late this year.

Offline Jim

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Re: SpaceX Falcon Heavy Discussion (Thread 6)
« Reply #622 on: 04/25/2018 04:31 pm »

But to get back on topic, has anyone heard info about where the side boosters from the inaugural launch will be kept? My vote is for the US Space & Rocket Center in Huntsville.


Never, that would be like crapping on the doorstep of Marshall

Offline deruch

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Re: SpaceX Falcon Heavy Discussion (Thread 6)
« Reply #623 on: 04/25/2018 04:33 pm »
What is the earliest FH could be certified for Air Force and NASA missions?

That depends both on what level of certification you're talking about and how invasive an evaluation SpaceX is willing to put up with.  If they follow the same path that they did for F9--which only has Category 2 certification--then they would try for it after the third successful launch of Falcon Heavy.  If they launch more times before applying for certification, some of the work wouldn't be needed.  I think their options are 1 launch, 3 launches, 6 launches, and 16 launches (but some certification levels aren't available for the lower launch numbers). 
Shouldn't reality posts be in "Advanced concepts"?  --Nomadd

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Falcon Heavy Discussion (Thread 6)
« Reply #624 on: 04/25/2018 04:35 pm »
Trimmed the completely offtopic JWST stuff.

Online LouScheffer

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Re: SpaceX Falcon Heavy Discussion (Thread 6)
« Reply #625 on: 04/25/2018 04:46 pm »
This 2016 article claimed that Europa Clipper was hedging its bets, and keeping the design compatible with DIVH, FH, and SLS. 

Quote
NASA has not yet selected a launch vehicle for the mission, but the baseline remains the Space Launch System, which allows the spacecraft to travel from Earth directly to Jupiter. Pappalardo said the mission is continuing to study the use of Delta 4 Heavy and Falcon Heavy as alternatives, but those would require the use of gravity assists that increase the mission’s flight time. The use of the Atlas 5 has been “closed off,” he said.

To do otherwise seems suicidal to me, to pin the hopes of thousands of researchers, decades of work, and a multi-billion dollar project on a rocket that has not yet flown.  Yet it may be true - sillier things have happened.   So is the design really such that it cannot (physically, not paperwork-ly) be launched on any rocket that already exists and has been flown at least once?

Note:   since then, it looks like FH Block 5 improvements might be able to do direct, or with a Mars gravity assist, which would not require re-design for greater insolation.  If I was Clipper management (which I'm surely not) I'd ask SpaceX for a more recent estimate.

Offline Jim

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Re: SpaceX Falcon Heavy Discussion (Thread 6)
« Reply #626 on: 04/25/2018 05:01 pm »

To do otherwise seems suicidal to me, to pin the hopes of thousands of researchers, decades of work, and a multi-billion dollar project on a rocket that has not yet flown.  Yet it may be true - sillier things have happened.


See Viking and Titan IIIE

Online envy887

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Re: SpaceX Falcon Heavy Discussion (Thread 6)
« Reply #627 on: 04/25/2018 05:01 pm »
This 2016 article claimed that Europa Clipper was hedging its bets, and keeping the design compatible with DIVH, FH, and SLS. 

Quote
NASA has not yet selected a launch vehicle for the mission, but the baseline remains the Space Launch System, which allows the spacecraft to travel from Earth directly to Jupiter. Pappalardo said the mission is continuing to study the use of Delta 4 Heavy and Falcon Heavy as alternatives, but those would require the use of gravity assists that increase the mission’s flight time. The use of the Atlas 5 has been “closed off,” he said.

To do otherwise seems suicidal to me, to pin the hopes of thousands of researchers, decades of work, and a multi-billion dollar project on a rocket that has not yet flown.  Yet it may be true - sillier things have happened.   So is the design really such that it cannot (physically, not paperwork-ly) be launched on any rocket that already exists and has been flown at least once?

Note:   since then, it looks like FH Block 5 improvements might be able to do direct, or with a Mars gravity assist, which would not require re-design for greater insolation.  If I was Clipper management (which I'm surely not) I'd ask SpaceX for a more recent estimate.

On that note, Eric Berger says that

Quote
It is not clear whether NASA specifically asked SpaceX about the Falcon Heavy and Europa, as Goldstein said figures for all the commercial rockets were provided by a competitor to SpaceX, United Launch Alliance.

Having ULA provide the capabilities for Falcon Heavy seems like a, uh, minor conflict of interest, maybe?

https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/04/if-were-really-going-to-europa-nasa-needs-to-pick-a-rocket-soon/

Offline Jim

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Re: SpaceX Falcon Heavy Discussion (Thread 6)
« Reply #628 on: 04/25/2018 05:01 pm »
This 2016 article claimed that Europa Clipper was hedging its bets, and keeping the design compatible with DIVH, FH, and SLS. 


I have been stating that over and over.

Offline Jim

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Re: SpaceX Falcon Heavy Discussion (Thread 6)
« Reply #629 on: 04/25/2018 05:02 pm »

On that note, Eric Berger says that

Quote
It is not clear whether NASA specifically asked SpaceX about the Falcon Heavy and Europa, as Goldstein said figures for all the commercial rockets were provided by a competitor to SpaceX, United Launch Alliance.


They are working with LSP

Online envy887

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Re: SpaceX Falcon Heavy Discussion (Thread 6)
« Reply #630 on: 04/25/2018 05:06 pm »

On that note, Eric Berger says that

Quote
It is not clear whether NASA specifically asked SpaceX about the Falcon Heavy and Europa, as Goldstein said figures for all the commercial rockets were provided by a competitor to SpaceX, United Launch Alliance.


They are working with LSP

"They" being SpaceX or the Clipper team?

Offline Jim

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Re: SpaceX Falcon Heavy Discussion (Thread 6)
« Reply #631 on: 04/25/2018 05:08 pm »

On that note, Eric Berger says that

Quote
It is not clear whether NASA specifically asked SpaceX about the Falcon Heavy and Europa, as Goldstein said figures for all the commercial rockets were provided by a competitor to SpaceX, United Launch Alliance.


They are working with LSP

"They" being SpaceX or the Clipper team?

EC

Online Ronsmytheiii

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Re: SpaceX Falcon Heavy Discussion (Thread 6)
« Reply #632 on: 04/25/2018 05:16 pm »

On that note, Eric Berger says that

Quote
It is not clear whether NASA specifically asked SpaceX about the Falcon Heavy and Europa, as Goldstein said figures for all the commercial rockets were provided by a competitor to SpaceX, United Launch Alliance.


They are working with LSP

"They" being SpaceX or the Clipper team?

EC

Hmm, is Falcon Heavy available through LSP yet? Thought it still needed certification.

Offline ugordan

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Re: SpaceX Falcon Heavy Discussion (Thread 6)
« Reply #633 on: 04/25/2018 05:18 pm »
Hmm, is Falcon Heavy available through LSP yet? Thought it still needed certification.

https://elvperf.ksc.nasa.gov/Pages/Vehicles.aspx

Certification can and has been done in parallel after vehicle selection, if necessary.

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: SpaceX Falcon Heavy Discussion (Thread 6)
« Reply #634 on: 04/25/2018 05:25 pm »
Shouldn't the design heritage between F9 and FH make FH certification easier?

Offline Firehawk153

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Re: SpaceX Falcon Heavy Discussion (Thread 6)
« Reply #635 on: 04/25/2018 05:30 pm »

To do otherwise seems suicidal to me, to pin the hopes of thousands of researchers, decades of work, and a multi-billion dollar project on a rocket that has not yet flown.  Yet it may be true - sillier things have happened.


See Viking and Titan IIIE

If I recall about wasn't there some concern from the German team about putting Helios-A on the second flight of the Titan IIIE?  I thought the first Titan IIIE launch failed or had an issue.
« Last Edit: 04/25/2018 05:33 pm by Firehawk153 »

Online clongton

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Re: SpaceX Falcon Heavy Discussion (Thread 6)
« Reply #636 on: 04/25/2018 06:14 pm »
I do wonder whether craft like the BFS will change this decision making process. Once you have 'huge' lifters with a massive chomper door like the proposed BFS, will it be necessary any longer to make the choice of LV so early?

Flagship mission hardware is designed very early in the process to take maximum advantage of a specific Launch Vehicle. Change the LV and you have to go back to the beginning and start again. That's not going to happen with Europa Clipper. SLS has already been designated as the LV and that is extremely unlikely to change. The only real decision yet to be made is whether the SLS LV will be Block 1 or 1B.

The fact that SLS Block 1 and Block 1B have very different capabilities belies your point...

In this specific case, not really. The difference is in the upper stage and the decision of Block 1 or 1B is driven by whether or not the NET date of 2022 can or should be pushed out until after the Mobile Launcher, designed for the EUS, is operational. If it flies with the iCPS it can stay on the Block 1 and use the NET of 2022. If it flies on the Block 1B it has to wait until the new Mobile launcher is ready. Congress has already mandated in law that SLS will be the LV for Europa Clipper, so the only decision left is 1 or 1B and the resulting NET launch date.

But the core of my statement was (because this is a SpaceX Falcon Heavy thread) between SLS and Falcon Heavy. If SLS is used in either Block it is a direct shot at Jupiter and Clipper can carry its full complement of science instrumentation and can spend the necessary time at Europa surveying landing spots for the expected follow-on mission of a Europa lander. If the Falcon Heavy is used then Clipper will need to swing through the solar system grabbing gravity assists before it can head to Jupiter. That dramatically increases the cruise time and the need for thermal protection, which reduces the mass available for science instruments. It also decreases the amount of time that clipper will be able to spend surveying the moon looking for likely landing places for the expected follow-on mission of a Europa lander.

These are the kinds of trade-offs that need to be considered when choosing a LV and why it is good management to select a LV as soon as possible and not a good idea to switch horses in the middle of the race without a really good reason. Changing LV after the design is set causes all kinds of problems.
« Last Edit: 04/25/2018 06:18 pm by clongton »
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Online envy887

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Re: SpaceX Falcon Heavy Discussion (Thread 6)
« Reply #637 on: 04/25/2018 06:22 pm »

On that note, Eric Berger says that

Quote
It is not clear whether NASA specifically asked SpaceX about the Falcon Heavy and Europa, as Goldstein said figures for all the commercial rockets were provided by a competitor to SpaceX, United Launch Alliance.


They are working with LSP

"They" being SpaceX or the Clipper team?

EC

LSP did not have the Block 5 Falcon Heavy data as recently as a month or two ago, even though SpaceX published it over a year before that. So working with LSP might not have been accurate.

JPL getting data about FH from ULA and not LSP or SpaceX is even odder, and less likely to be accurate.

Online envy887

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Re: SpaceX Falcon Heavy Discussion (Thread 6)
« Reply #638 on: 04/25/2018 06:42 pm »
I do wonder whether craft like the BFS will change this decision making process. Once you have 'huge' lifters with a massive chomper door like the proposed BFS, will it be necessary any longer to make the choice of LV so early?

Flagship mission hardware is designed very early in the process to take maximum advantage of a specific Launch Vehicle. Change the LV and you have to go back to the beginning and start again. That's not going to happen with Europa Clipper. SLS has already been designated as the LV and that is extremely unlikely to change. The only real decision yet to be made is whether the SLS LV will be Block 1 or 1B.

The fact that SLS Block 1 and Block 1B have very different capabilities belies your point...

In this specific case, not really. The difference is in the upper stage and the decision of Block 1 or 1B is driven by whether or not the NET date of 2022 can or should be pushed out until after the Mobile Launcher, designed for the EUS, is operational. If it flies with the iCPS it can stay on the Block 1 and use the NET of 2022. If it flies on the Block 1B it has to wait until the new Mobile launcher is ready. Congress has already mandated in law that SLS will be the LV for Europa Clipper, so the only decision left is 1 or 1B and the resulting NET launch date.

But the core of my statement was (because this is a SpaceX Falcon Heavy thread) between SLS and Falcon Heavy. If SLS is used in either Block it is a direct shot at Jupiter and Clipper can carry its full complement of science instrumentation and can spend the necessary time at Europa surveying landing spots for the expected follow-on mission of a Europa lander. If the Falcon Heavy is used then Clipper will need to swing through the solar system grabbing gravity assists before it can head to Jupiter. That dramatically increases the cruise time and the need for thermal protection, which reduces the mass available for science instruments. It also decreases the amount of time that clipper will be able to spend surveying the moon looking for likely landing places for the expected follow-on mission of a Europa lander.

These are the kinds of trade-offs that need to be considered when choosing a LV and why it is good management to select a LV as soon as possible and not a good idea to switch horses in the middle of the race without a really good reason. Changing LV after the design is set causes all kinds of problems.

Well, that's the difference. You presume FH cannot match SLS Block 1 capabilities. I posit that with Block 5 FH probably can, and Lou Scheffer's and Dr. Pietrobon's calculations agree. As far as I can tell neither LSP nor JPL have the numbers from SpaceX for Block 5 FH to do this comparison themselves.

Online clongton

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Re: SpaceX Falcon Heavy Discussion (Thread 6)
« Reply #639 on: 04/25/2018 06:53 pm »
Well, that's the difference. You presume FH cannot match SLS Block 1 capabilities. I posit that with Block 5 FH probably can, and Lou Scheffer's and Dr. Pietrobon's calculations agree. As far as I can tell neither LSP nor JPL have the numbers from SpaceX for Block 5 FH to do this comparison themselves.

See here for a good discussion
https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/04/if-were-really-going-to-europa-nasa-needs-to-pick-a-rocket-soon/?comments=1&post=35164983
Chuck - DIRECT co-founder
I started my career on the Saturn-V F-1A engine

 

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