Author Topic: Tom Mueller interview 02 May 2017  (Read 99356 times)

Offline gospacex

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Re: Tom Mueller interview 02 May 2017
« Reply #40 on: 05/14/2017 05:54 pm »
Quote
So once we’re flying that, all other rockets will probably be obsolete. <laughs>

I bet Rogozin doesn't laugh :)

Online envy887

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Re: Tom Mueller interview 02 May 2017
« Reply #41 on: 05/14/2017 06:30 pm »
His examples about the Merlin have some interesting numbers:

About 1000 lbs engine mass. Roughly 450 kg, which is a bit lower than the previous estimates I've seen.

About 800 lbs/s propellant mass flow rate. That's​ about 360 kg/s, which is quite a bit higher than the 275 to 300 kg/s typically quoted for Merlin.

About 10,500 ft/s exhaust velocity. He also says about Mach 10 exhaust velocity. Those are 3200 and 3400 m/s or 325/345 second ISP.

These don't add up to the stated thrust of Falcon 9, which is 7606 kN. With those flow rates and velocities it would be 10000 kN or 11000 kN.

But maybe Merlin is considerably more capable than we expected?

It seemed like he was just pulling approximate numbers off the cuff. I would not read too much into that.
He gave three significant digits for the exhaust velocity. If that was just making up numbers, I'd expect 10,000 not 10,500.

Online Robotbeat

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Re: Tom Mueller interview 02 May 2017
« Reply #42 on: 05/14/2017 06:59 pm »
His examples about the Merlin have some interesting numbers:

About 1000 lbs engine mass. Roughly 450 kg, which is a bit lower than the previous estimates I've seen.

About 800 lbs/s propellant mass flow rate. That's​ about 360 kg/s, which is quite a bit higher than the 275 to 300 kg/s typically quoted for Merlin.

About 10,500 ft/s exhaust velocity. He also says about Mach 10 exhaust velocity. Those are 3200 and 3400 m/s or 325/345 second ISP.

These don't add up to the stated thrust of Falcon 9, which is 7606 kN. With those flow rates and velocities it would be 10000 kN or 11000 kN.

But maybe Merlin is considerably more capable than we expected?

It seemed like he was just pulling approximate numbers off the cuff. I would not read too much into that.
He gave three significant digits for the exhaust velocity. If that was just making up numbers, I'd expect 10,000 not 10,500.
More like one and a half significant figures. 10500 means rounded to nearest 500, so only about 95% precision in numbers. If he had said 93000, that would've implied much more precision, about 99%.
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Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: Tom Mueller interview 02 May 2017
« Reply #43 on: 05/14/2017 07:04 pm »
Retractable landing gear must be intended for use with the landing pad robot (Roomba). Otherwise, erroneous retraction of landing gear while on the ground is a bad day which happens from time to time in aviation.

Power fold was NOT indicated... Not my take anyway from Tom's statements...
Manual unlatch and manual fold (I assume with some GSE involved) was hinted at...
Key take away... is leaving the legs on to save in turn around time...  ;)

Added quote from transcript...
Quote
Quote
And it’s going to have a much better landing legs that just fold up and; just drop the rocket, fold the legs, ship it, fold the legs out when it lands. Making it turn very fast;
The legs are pneumatic deployed so an attachment of a pneumatic feed and the reset of some pins would easily fold the legs back up without much weight penalty.
« Last Edit: 05/14/2017 07:04 pm by oldAtlas_Eguy »

Offline John Alan

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Re: Tom Mueller interview 02 May 2017
« Reply #44 on: 05/14/2017 07:09 pm »
His examples about the Merlin have some interesting numbers:

About 1000 lbs engine mass. Roughly 450 kg, which is a bit lower than the previous estimates I've seen.

About 800 lbs/s propellant mass flow rate. That's​ about 360 kg/s, which is quite a bit higher than the 275 to 300 kg/s typically quoted for Merlin.

About 10,500 ft/s exhaust velocity. He also says about Mach 10 exhaust velocity. Those are 3200 and 3400 m/s or 325/345 second ISP.

These don't add up to the stated thrust of Falcon 9, which is 7606 kN. With those flow rates and velocities it would be 10000 kN or 11000 kN.

But maybe Merlin is considerably more capable than we expected?

It seemed like he was just pulling approximate numbers off the cuff. I would not read too much into that.
He gave three significant digits for the exhaust velocity. If that was just making up numbers, I'd expect 10,000 not 10,500.

My sense is he used numbers from his latest Merlin D test engines to go across their test stand and then rounded (either up or down) for the audience he was speaking to (the people who set up the video call)...

Any engineer I know can rattle off where they stand on meeting a target and the numbers to back his standing.

That said... those numbers made me  :o and they MAY hint at what percent power they have run M1D max on the test stand...

As I understand it... to "crank up" the M1D... you just add more "power" at the pump power turbine... spin the pumps a bit faster... and run it till it blows...  :D
Beef up what let go and and repeat till you hit the laws of physics...  :P
Then you call that "11" and turn it back down to "10"... 
Doing so, that 10500 kN figure makes sense with the quoted 215 Klb thrust M1vac number, my opinion...  ;)
« Last Edit: 05/14/2017 07:44 pm by John Alan »

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: Tom Mueller interview 02 May 2017
« Reply #45 on: 05/14/2017 07:31 pm »
The comments from Mueller gives the impression that the M1D has hit all three items instead of just 2 in the cost, performance, reliability tradeoff. This is in itself very significant and also important for SpaceX. They have a very low cost engine with high performance and high reliability. Something that no one else in the US industry has even come close to. Which is why the Atlas V uses the low cost, high performance, high reliability RD-180 from Russia, the only other engine in use in the US that hits all three points.

This goal of hitting all three for the Raptor is also encouraging. Using lessons learned and piling the difficulty into development to be able to make such an engine instead of compromising on operational costs to keep development costs down. Musk has it right. If your going to fly lots of them and want to lower operational costs have good or high performance and high reliability, don't push off doing the right things in development for reducing the development costs.

Offline AncientU

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Re: Tom Mueller interview 02 May 2017
« Reply #46 on: 05/14/2017 08:30 pm »
Quote
So once we’re flying that, all other rockets will probably be obsolete. <laughs>

I bet Rogozin doesn't laugh :)

Especially at this part:
Quote
The Russians are saying they’re coming up with a rocket that can beat SpaceX, which is entertaining, <laughs> which is entertaining, because they’ve been working on their Angara rocket for 22 years, and launched it once. And suddenly they’re going to be coming up with a low-cost one.

That would officially be considered throwing shade -- on a world leader in spaceflight.
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Offline AncientU

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Re: Tom Mueller interview 02 May 2017
« Reply #47 on: 05/14/2017 08:47 pm »
The comments from Mueller gives the impression that the M1D has hit all three items instead of just 2 in the cost, performance, reliability tradeoff. This is in itself very significant and also important for SpaceX. They have a very low cost engine with high performance and high reliability. Something that no one else in the US industry has even come close to. Which is why the Atlas V uses the low cost, high performance, high reliability RD-180 from Russia, the only other engine in use in the US that hits all three points.

This goal of hitting all three for the Raptor is also encouraging. Using lessons learned and piling the difficulty into development to be able to make such an engine instead of compromising on operational costs to keep development costs down. Musk has it right. If your going to fly lots of them and want to lower operational costs have good or high performance and high reliability, don't push off doing the right things in development for reducing the development costs.

I think hitting all three is the baseline standard...

Merlin is using 96-97% of the available chemical energy; Raptor will be using 99%.
Falcon has reusable booster; BFR/ITS will be fully reusable.

Quote
That rocket is going to be the real game-changer. I would say that the Falcon 9 is revolutionary, you know, a reusable rocket that greatly reduces the cost of access to space. Maybe we can achieve ten reduction in cost over, you know, like what ULA or the Russians or the Chinese are doing, with the Falcon. But we want like a hundred or more reduction in costs; and that’s what the Mars rocket’s gonna do. That’s going to be the revolutionary rocket.

So once we’re flying that, all other rockets will probably be obsolete. <laughs>
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
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Online Robotbeat

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Re: Tom Mueller interview 02 May 2017
« Reply #48 on: 05/14/2017 09:09 pm »
Combustion efficiency is not actual energy-in (fuel chemical energy), energy-out (jet kinetic energy) efficiency. On that latter measure of efficiency, Raptor is 40-60% efficient.
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Offline AncientU

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Re: Tom Mueller interview 02 May 2017
« Reply #49 on: 05/14/2017 09:41 pm »
Combustion efficiency is not actual energy-in (fuel chemical energy), energy-out (jet kinetic energy) efficiency. On that latter measure of efficiency, Raptor is 40-60% efficient.

So, what does the 99% efficiency refer to?  ...fraction of hypothetical max. ISP achieved?
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Offline OneSpeed

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Re: Tom Mueller interview 02 May 2017
« Reply #50 on: 05/14/2017 10:00 pm »
These don't add up to the stated thrust of Falcon 9, which is 7606 kN. With those flow rates and velocities it would be 10000 kN or 11000 kN.

But maybe Merlin is considerably more capable than we expected?

Merlin Vac is quoted as 934kN, but in recent launches it appears to be running at 107% thrust for the initial part of the burn. That's 999kN, briefly.

Online Robotbeat

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Re: Tom Mueller interview 02 May 2017
« Reply #51 on: 05/14/2017 10:07 pm »
Combustion efficiency is not actual energy-in (fuel chemical energy), energy-out (jet kinetic energy) efficiency. On that latter measure of efficiency, Raptor is 40-60% efficient.

So, what does the 99% efficiency refer to?  ...fraction of hypothetical max. ISP achieved?
Combustion completion, I believe.
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Online Robotbeat

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Re: Tom Mueller interview 02 May 2017
« Reply #52 on: 05/14/2017 10:29 pm »
I get almost 61% efficiency for a 382s Isp, 3.8 oxidizer to fuel mass ratio, and 55.5MJ/kg specific energy for methane. Check my work.

.5*(382*9.80665m/s)^2/(55.5MJ/(4.8kg))

http://tinyurl.com/kxc9so2
« Last Edit: 05/14/2017 10:33 pm by Chris Bergin »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: Tom Mueller interview 02 May 2017
« Reply #53 on: 05/14/2017 10:38 pm »
I get almost 61% efficiency for a 382s Isp, 3.8 oxidizer to fuel mass ratio, and 55.5MJ/kg specific energy for methane. Check my work.

.5*(382*9.80665m/s)^2/(55.5MJ/(4.8kg))

http://tinyurl.com/kxc9so2
If correct then that means that the initial Raptor is hitting the targets for the full capability ITS in its initial version. Target was 280 ISP. So that first ITS/BFR has high likelihood of achieving the goal of 200+mt payloads. It also means that the ITS is likely to be able to be a SSTO without the BFR.

Online Robotbeat

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Re: Tom Mueller interview 02 May 2017
« Reply #54 on: 05/14/2017 10:43 pm »
I'm using the figures from the presentation, which are probably not the actual figures for their test engines (likely not close, as they just tested a few seconds and at lowish thrust).

These are their goals, not yet accomplished.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Offline mlindner

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Re: Tom Mueller interview 02 May 2017
« Reply #55 on: 05/14/2017 10:58 pm »
His examples about the Merlin have some interesting numbers:

About 1000 lbs engine mass. Roughly 450 kg, which is a bit lower than the previous estimates I've seen.

About 800 lbs/s propellant mass flow rate. That's​ about 360 kg/s, which is quite a bit higher than the 275 to 300 kg/s typically quoted for Merlin.

About 10,500 ft/s exhaust velocity. He also says about Mach 10 exhaust velocity. Those are 3200 and 3400 m/s or 325/345 second ISP.

These don't add up to the stated thrust of Falcon 9, which is 7606 kN. With those flow rates and velocities it would be 10000 kN or 11000 kN.

But maybe Merlin is considerably more capable than we expected?

You need to be careful there. You're changing the number of significant figures in several of your calculations.

Recalculating with +/- 1/2 significant figure:

* 1000 lbs is 230-680 kg.
* 800 lbs is 340-385 kg.
LEO is the ocean, not an island (let alone a continent). We create cruise liners to ride the oceans, not artificial islands in the middle of them. We need a physical place, which has physical resources, to make our future out there.

Offline mlindner

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Re: Tom Mueller interview 02 May 2017
« Reply #56 on: 05/14/2017 11:01 pm »
His examples about the Merlin have some interesting numbers:

About 1000 lbs engine mass. Roughly 450 kg, which is a bit lower than the previous estimates I've seen.

About 800 lbs/s propellant mass flow rate. That's​ about 360 kg/s, which is quite a bit higher than the 275 to 300 kg/s typically quoted for Merlin.

About 10,500 ft/s exhaust velocity. He also says about Mach 10 exhaust velocity. Those are 3200 and 3400 m/s or 325/345 second ISP.

These don't add up to the stated thrust of Falcon 9, which is 7606 kN. With those flow rates and velocities it would be 10000 kN or 11000 kN.

But maybe Merlin is considerably more capable than we expected?

It seemed like he was just pulling approximate numbers off the cuff. I would not read too much into that.

TM breathes this stuff. 
I'd take him literally before believing our numbers to the slightest degree.

Engineers don't constantly talk in precision, especially when giving a general presentation. Engineers are human too, recalling numbers from your head when you've seen hundreds of different numbers in the various trades that were done is not straightforward. You use computers to check your numbers, not gut feeling or memory knowledge.
LEO is the ocean, not an island (let alone a continent). We create cruise liners to ride the oceans, not artificial islands in the middle of them. We need a physical place, which has physical resources, to make our future out there.

Offline shuttle_buff

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Re: Tom Mueller interview 02 May 2017
« Reply #57 on: 05/15/2017 12:39 am »
This interview is a gold mine of information. Not sure everybody realizes what *Tom* is presenting here. I'm working on a summary to be released shortly. This covers SpaceX, the SpaceX satellite business, Tesla and more.

The whole idea that SpaceX is the "airline" to Mars and other companies will have to participate to have car rentals, hotels and other attractions is * AWESOME!*

This is crazy!

Offline mlindner

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Re: Tom Mueller interview 02 May 2017
« Reply #58 on: 05/15/2017 01:06 am »
This interview is a gold mine of information. Not sure everybody realizes what *Tom* is presenting here. I'm working on a summary to be released shortly. This covers SpaceX, the SpaceX satellite business, Tesla and more.

The whole idea that SpaceX is the "airline" to Mars and other companies will have to participate to have car rentals, hotels and other attractions is * AWESOME!*

This is crazy!

Most of the stuff in what he mentioned we already knew or already knew most of. This just re-confirms a lot of the stuff we knew or puts it in more clear terms.
« Last Edit: 05/15/2017 02:54 am by mlindner »
LEO is the ocean, not an island (let alone a continent). We create cruise liners to ride the oceans, not artificial islands in the middle of them. We need a physical place, which has physical resources, to make our future out there.

Offline Elmar Moelzer

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Re: Tom Mueller interview 02 May 2017
« Reply #59 on: 05/15/2017 01:56 am »
Great interview! Makes me respect Tom Mueller and Elon Musk even more. They clearly are an awesome team.

The talk about nuclear thermal rockets isn't too surprising, either. We know already that SpaceX had been considering NTR at one point due to past presentations (most of them many years old, now). I feel this is a Mueller thing, as Mueller is maybe /the/ greatest propulsion engineer on the planet right now, and NTR is pretty tantalizing. I mean, we actually built them in the past and designed even better ones. (BTW, I think the conclusion is a good one: too expensive for what SpaceX wants to do now.) If you're a propulsion engineer that isn't super old, you might chafe a bit at the fact that you weren't around at the time when these things were being developed (potentially) for flight.
I can totally relate to Tom Mueller here as well and I am thrilled that SpaceX is still thinking about these things. Mueller also mentions fusion, which interests me even more. Maybe SpaceX could invest a little bit into the development of some of the fusion engine concepts that are currently in desperate search for funding. Some concepts could also solve their mars- power- production- problem.
« Last Edit: 05/15/2017 01:57 am by Elmar Moelzer »

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