Apple maybe getting interested in broadband satellites

[ChrisWilson68]

Designing and building a satellite system is not the same as building a consumer product.

Nobody tell Amazon that...

Amazon has consumer products, but they also run AWS and their own enormous logistics system.  I'd say that's a lot closer to a satellite internet system than anything Apple has done.

[RocketGoBoom]

It is my understanding that the first two constellations to establish themselves in LEO get the first choice of prime spectrum in the Ku and Ka band. From all reports, that seems most likely to be SpaceX Starlink and OneWeb which grab the first two spots.

Anyone that gets their LEO constellation into orbit after that would need to design their system so as not to interfere with the existing constellations using that Ku and Ka spectrum.

So now along comes Amazon Kuiper and wants to skip all of that.
https://www.geekwire.com/2019/spacex-seeks-block-amazons-project-kuiper-satellite-broadband-program-skipping-regulatory-hurdle/

Amazon's play seems like a long shot move and will likely be denied, especially considering that Amazon is likely 3 to 4 years away from launching their first satellites.

So how would players late to the game even begin to compete? Whenever there is a conflict for spectrum, the first movers (Starlink and OneWeb) get the prime spectrum.

That leads me to believe that we will likely see Apple or Amazon probably try to buy OneWeb eventually, if they are really serious about putting a constellation into LEO.

OneWeb is owned mostly by SoftBank and based on recent news, SoftBank is having capital problems funding their unicorn startups. WeWork's collapsed IPO has put SoftBank into a cash critical situation.

The bottom line is, don't be surprised if SoftBank is willing to sell OneWeb (and it's likely top 2 prime spectrum position). That is extremely valuable spectrum which Apple or Amazon could easily afford to purchase if they really decide they want to compete with Starlink in this market.

[Asteroza]

It is my understanding that the first two constellations to establish themselves in LEO get the first choice of prime spectrum in the Ku and Ka band. From all reports, that seems most likely to be SpaceX Starlink and OneWeb which grab the first two spots.

Anyone that gets their LEO constellation into orbit after that would need to design their system so as not to interfere with the existing constellations using that Ku and Ka spectrum.

So now along comes Amazon Kuiper and wants to skip all of that.
https://www.geekwire.com/2019/spacex-seeks-block-amazons-project-kuiper-satellite-broadband-program-skipping-regulatory-hurdle/

Amazon's play seems like a long shot move and will likely be denied, especially considering that Amazon is likely 3 to 4 years away from launching their first satellites.

So how would players late to the game even begin to compete? Whenever there is a conflict for spectrum, the first movers (Starlink and OneWeb) get the prime spectrum.

That leads me to believe that we will likely see Apple or Amazon probably try to buy OneWeb eventually, if they are really serious about putting a constellation into LEO.

OneWeb is owned mostly by SoftBank and based on recent news, SoftBank is having capital problems funding their unicorn startups. WeWork's collapsed IPO has put SoftBank into a cash critical situation.

The bottom line is, don't be surprised if SoftBank is willing to sell OneWeb (and it's likely top 2 prime spectrum position). That is extremely valuable spectrum which Apple or Amazon could easily afford to purchase if they really decide they want to compete with Starlink in this market.

Direct satellite 5G I believe uses different bands from the current megaconstellations, so there would be no benefit from salvaging OneWeb for Apple except as backhaul for terrestrial towers, but Apple would specifically want to avoid terrestrial towers on their balance sheet where possible. Offering a tit-for-tat arrangement to provide backhaul to carriers who allow Apple's eSIM MVNO to roam on them would make some sense though. I doubt you could reconfigure existing sats to do the 5G bands well even with the SDR systems onboard, as the phased array antennas were optimized for specific bands.

There's also the legal barriers, as even though you are deconflicted with the megaconstellations, direct 5G will require a ton of ITU negotiations due to terrestrial interference issues. The incumbent cellular carriers won't take this lying down either, and their legal team backbench are probably at equal fighting strength to Apple's. Apple would somehow have to sweeten the MVNO deal with carriers to get them to back down, but how since this is directly encroaching on their high margin territory.

[gongora]

It is my understanding that the first two constellations to establish themselves in LEO get the first choice of prime spectrum in the Ku and Ka band. From all reports, that seems most likely to be SpaceX Starlink and OneWeb which grab the first two spots.

Anyone that gets their LEO constellation into orbit after that would need to design their system so as not to interfere with the existing constellations using that Ku and Ka spectrum.

This is not correct.  Worldwide the first to file with ITU for each set of frequencies (and subsequently put at least one satellite in orbit) gets some kind of priority, and that is not SpaceX.  OneWeb and Telesat have ITU priority in various frequencies.  SpaceX keeps changing their orbits so they may be at the back of the line as far as ITU filings are concerned.  For coverage of the U.S., everyone in the same processing round has to cooperate on an equal footing.  The first to bring the frequencies into use gets first choice of frequencies when two satellites come near each other and have to split the available bandwidth between them.  (SpaceX was the third to get a satellite into an applicable orbit.  They're trying to argue that they're the first to communicate with FCC filed ground stations in the U.S., which the first two companies, both non-US, say is bulls---.  Legal staffs are bickering over the matter.)

So now along comes Amazon Kuiper and wants to skip all of that.
https://www.geekwire.com/2019/spacex-seeks-block-amazons-project-kuiper-satellite-broadband-program-skipping-regulatory-hurdle/

Amazon's play seems like a long shot move and will likely be denied, especially considering that Amazon is likely 3 to 4 years away from launching their first satellites.

This is correct, and it's not just SpaceX opposing it.  Pretty much everyone from the existing processing round filed opposition to Amazon.  (Amazon's argument is amusing.  They say that their constellation is about as big as the previously filed constellations that withdrew their filings, so the environment with Amazon will just be the same as if those other constellations had been built, right?)

So how would players late to the game even begin to compete? Whenever there is a conflict for spectrum, the first movers (Starlink and OneWeb) get the prime spectrum.

That leads me to believe that we will likely see Apple or Amazon probably try to buy OneWeb eventually, if they are really serious about putting a constellation into LEO.

OneWeb is owned mostly by SoftBank and based on recent news, SoftBank is having capital problems funding their unicorn startups. WeWork's collapsed IPO has put SoftBank into a cash critical situation.

The bottom line is, don't be surprised if SoftBank is willing to sell OneWeb (and it's likely top 2 prime spectrum position). That is extremely valuable spectrum which Apple or Amazon could easily afford to purchase if they really decide they want to compete with Starlink in this market.

How subsequently filed constellations will fit into the picture is a big question right now.  If another processing round is started by the FCC then the new filings would probably be at a disadvantage when communicating with U.S. ground stations, but we'll just have to see how it plays out.  If another round is started you can bet both SpaceX and OneWeb will be filing for more satellites in addition to the new companies.

[RocketGoBoom]

This is not correct.  Worldwide the first to file with ITU for each set of frequencies (and subsequently put at least one satellite in orbit) gets some kind of priority, and that is not SpaceX.  OneWeb and Telesat have ITU priority in various frequencies.  SpaceX keeps changing their orbits so they may be at the back of the line as far as ITU filings are concerned.  For coverage of the U.S., everyone in the same processing round has to cooperate on an equal footing.  The first to bring the frequencies into use gets first choice of frequencies when two satellites come near each other and have to split the available bandwidth between them.  (SpaceX was the third to get a satellite into an applicable orbit.  They're trying to argue that they're the first to communicate with FCC filed ground stations in the U.S., which the first two companies, both non-US, say is bulls---.  Legal staffs are bickering over the matter.)

It is my understanding that the ITU just changed the requirements for everyone last month? Now the requirement is not just one satellite in orbit. It is a certain percentage of the proposed constellation has to be in orbit by certain dates after the application.

11/20/19
https://spacenews.com/itu-sets-milestones-for-megaconstellations/

Regulators meeting in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, for the 2019 World Radiocommunication Conference this month said that for non-geosynchronous constellation operators to keep their full spectrum rights in the future, they will have to hit deployment milestones that start seven years after requesting the spectrum.

After those seven years, NGSO constellation operators will need to launch 10% of their satellites in two years, 50% in five years and 100% in seven years. If constellation ventures fail to launch enough satellites by the milestones, or within the total 14 years allotted, their spectrum rights are limited proportionally to the number launched before time ran out.

Under the new rules, that would favor whoever gets their full constellation into orbit first. The race to reach LEO and squat on your territory seems to be the basic guideline.
 
From the article, it does not yet seem clear who has priority.
Does the first to LEO have priority? Or does the first application have priority, even if they reach orbit WAY later, so long as they meet the deadlines.

I suspect the priority will be given to the first to reach LEO with the required percentage of the constellation. Whoever is launching later would seem to be under the burden to not interfere with the earlier in LEO constellation. The response of Kepler, which was first to orbit with one satellite, seems to underscore this. They have changed their orbital plans due to SpaceX already being in their preferred orbit.

I don't know the answers for sure. But I am reading and trying to understand it all.

[gongora]

First to file still has priority (with ITU) as long as they deploy their satellites.  The deadlines are still pretty long, it didn't say anything about shortening the bringing into use deadline, so you have over a decade to build out the constellation.

[watermod]

But I doubt they are serious, or serious enough, for this market.  It reminds me of their supposed entry into the electric car business.

Exactly, their adventures into cars is going nowhere.

And I'm not sure if it's even feasible for satellites to replace cell towers, how does that work when you're inside buildings?

Small, local APs, similar to the femto/micro cells phone companies send out to customers.

Those femto/micro cells could likely be plugged into the gb-ethernet ports or the wifi on StarLink user devices. 

[Asteroza]

A point in the Bloomberg article that stands out is the founder of Ettus research, which is a premier SDR radio maker, joined the Apple team. There is a whole lot going on the SDR world, so having him is bringing in the big guns. This works both ways too, after Apple bought up Intel's failed 5G radio modem division. We may see interesting innovation in both the satellite end and in the ground terminal end. Combine the SDR work with stuff like diode controlled metamaterial fractal antennas from the likes of Fractenna for new capabilities.