Author Topic: SpaceX Falcon 9 : CRS-13 : Dec 15, 2017 : DISCUSSION  (Read 98082 times)

Online nacnud

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : CRS-13 : Dec 15, 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #180 on: 12/07/2017 11:11 PM »
What will we be able to see from Europe (weather permitting)? Even though Dragon deploy is done both Dragon and S2 should be orbiting close behind the ISS and be possible to see?

CRS-13 launches 16:46:00Z and ISS will be visible here in Denmark 17:56:39Z - 17:58:47Z It is certainly dark enough at that time and the long-term weather forecast is sort of encouraging (-ish).

I really want to watch the launch stream with the kids and then go outside and see the real thing in the sky soon after.

j.



I saw a Dragon pass overhead from Towcester, England (52.13 N). It was shortly after sunset and the ISS passed directly overhead, followed a few minutes later by the dragon, the solar panel fairings and the second stage. They made a cross in the sky. To work out what you might seen you need to know the ground track of the ISS and the lighting conditions. You need the ISS to be passing overhead and for the sun to have recently set (or just about to rise) to get the best viewing as this means the sky is dark but the dragon et al are still illuminated. Having no clouds is nice too.

I was very very lucky as it wasn't planned at all, it just popped outside on the off-chance.

Edit: I saw Dragon on the first orbit, it sounds like it's passing over you on the second orbit, you should be able to see Dragon but I don't know about the fairings and second stage, I would have thought they would have fallen back by then.

Edit2: Watch out for Cygnus too, it should be in  the vicinity. It's moved to a higher orbit so would pass by after ISS and Dragon I guess. I just tried to find a good tool to plot the ground tracks of ISS etc but couldn't find one.
« Last Edit: 12/07/2017 11:28 PM by nacnud »

Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : CRS-13 : Dec 15, 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #181 on: 12/07/2017 11:28 PM »
Thank you for the reply. Since you saw it from the UK I suppose that the timing this time will be the same or even better here in Denmark, i.e. the distance will not be longer between the ISS and Dragon chasing it. That is great news.

Our family watched the Atlantis undocked from the ISS and waiting to de-orbit on its final flight. That was great. We have young children again who need to see something like that. Unfortunately, unlike that time the ISS will not be passing directly overhead on the 12th - it will have a max altitude of 12 degrees - but still an experience to remember.

j.

Offline c

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : CRS-13 : Dec 15, 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #182 on: 12/08/2017 03:58 PM »
Apologies if this was covered up-thread...

RE: LC-39 gantry viewing

Me and the boy were super excited to see that SpaceX had moved CRS-13 back over to pad 40.

"Ah," we thought. "We'll buy our LC-39 gantry tickets and score a nice meal, the launch t-shirt, and the best SpaceX launch viewing on the planet." (3.4 miles)

Unfortunately we could not find any mention of LC-39 gantry tickets on-sale.  I called KSC's launch ticket sales and was told by a very pleasant Sarah that due to all the CRS-13 delays they were not going to risk a scrub and the logistical nightmare that causes.  And even tho I told Sarah I lived close enough that a scrub was "no problemo" for me, no amount of whining or bribe offers would open those magical gantry doors to me.

So, no gantry viewing for this launch but with pad 40 open things look good for the future!

c


Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : CRS-13 : Dec 15, 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #183 on: 12/09/2017 11:51 AM »
From the launch forecast issued yesterday:

Quote
Maximum upper-level winds will be from the west at 105 knots at 40,000 feet.
On Wednesday, skies will begin to clear [...]. Maximum upper-level winds will be from the west at 130 knots near 40,000 feet.

I know wind shear is a particular concern but is there also an upper limit on wind speed F9 can tolerate? Upper level winds caused a scrub of the last ULA launch.

Offline CyndyC

Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : CRS-13 : Dec 15, 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #184 on: 12/10/2017 12:23 AM »
From the launch forecast issued yesterday:

Quote
Maximum upper-level winds will be from the west at 105 knots at 40,000 feet.
On Wednesday, skies will begin to clear [...]. Maximum upper-level winds will be from the west at 130 knots near 40,000 feet.

I know wind shear is a particular concern but is there also an upper limit on wind speed F9 can tolerate?

Yes, there is.
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Offline Jirka Dlouhy

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : CRS-13 : Dec 15, 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #185 on: 12/10/2017 02:18 PM »
Are this micro and nanosatellites onboard of CRS-13 ?

Violet      50   USA      Cornell University
QBUS 3      2   USA      Stanford University
LAICE      12   USA      University Of Illinois
HARP      3   USA      University Of Maryland
OPAL      3   USA      Space Dynamic Laboratory
OPEN      1   USA      University Of North Dakota
CPOD 1      3   USA      Tyvak Nanosatellite Center
CPOD 2      3   USA      Tyvak Nanosatellite Center
RANGE A      2   USA      Georgia Institute Of Technology
RANGE B      2   USA      Georgia Institute Of Technology

Offline CyndyC

Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : CRS-13 : Dec 15, 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #186 on: 12/10/2017 08:33 PM »
Are this micro and nanosatellites onboard of CRS-13 ?

Violet      50   USA      Cornell University
QBUS 3      2   USA      Stanford University
LAICE      12   USA      University Of Illinois
HARP      3   USA      University Of Maryland
OPAL      3   USA      Space Dynamic Laboratory
OPEN      1   USA      University Of North Dakota
CPOD 1      3   USA      Tyvak Nanosatellite Center
CPOD 2      3   USA      Tyvak Nanosatellite Center
RANGE A      2   USA      Georgia Institute Of Technology
RANGE B      2   USA      Georgia Institute Of Technology

No cube-, micro-, or nanosats have been mentioned in the cargo descriptions
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Offline Skyrocket

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : CRS-13 : Dec 15, 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #187 on: 12/10/2017 08:36 PM »
Are this micro and nanosatellites onboard of CRS-13 ?

Violet      50   USA      Cornell University
QBUS 3      2   USA      Stanford University
LAICE      12   USA      University Of Illinois
HARP      3   USA      University Of Maryland
OPAL      3   USA      Space Dynamic Laboratory
OPEN      1   USA      University Of North Dakota
CPOD 1      3   USA      Tyvak Nanosatellite Center
CPOD 2      3   USA      Tyvak Nanosatellite Center
RANGE A      2   USA      Georgia Institute Of Technology
RANGE B      2   USA      Georgia Institute Of Technology

Just as a remark: Violet has been cancelled and won't fly.

Offline Semmel

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : CRS-13 : Dec 15, 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #188 on: 12/10/2017 09:38 PM »
Would it be possible to put the NET launch time into the first post of the update thread?  Currently, it only reads the launch date but no info on the time. Thank you!

Online speedevil

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : CRS-13 : Dec 15, 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #189 on: 12/10/2017 10:39 PM »
Just as a remark: Violet has been cancelled and won't fly.
A quick google of the above satellites reveals that none of them seem to have a convincing launch date or platform mentioned prominently anywhere. Twitter the same.

Offline king1999

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : CRS-13 : Dec 15, 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #190 on: 12/11/2017 01:54 PM »
Any good picture for the Sooty?

Online Ben the Space Brit

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : CRS-13 : Dec 15, 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #191 on: 12/11/2017 03:13 PM »
I really would have thought that NASA would make a bigger deal about a reusable spacecraft flying on a reusable booster. I mean, what is the proportion by volume Falcon-9/Dragon system reuse now - 70% at least?
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Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : CRS-13 : Dec 15, 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #192 on: 12/11/2017 03:31 PM »
Sorry, I'm not familiar with the terminology, what does the following mean in the context of being able to launch or not:

Upper levels winds are constraint base.

Offline Herb Schaltegger

Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : CRS-13 : Dec 15, 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #193 on: 12/11/2017 03:51 PM »
Sorry, I'm not familiar with the terminology, what does the following mean in the context of being able to launch or not:

Upper levels winds are constraint base.

It means if there's a weather-related launch constraint, it will be due to upper level winds. So far as I know, SpaceX has never publicly discussed what the limit is for upper level winds (wind velocity, direction, flight level ...) But as noted multiple times over the years, F9 is fairly long-and-skinny as rockets go. That tends to potentially worsen the effects of wind shear induced bending loads as compared to a shorter-but-wider booster body.
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Offline whitelancer64

Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : CRS-13 : Dec 15, 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #194 on: 12/11/2017 04:04 PM »
From Updates thread:

Working with NASA since Jan.  Equivalent risk established.  All groups meeting for several months.

2 weeks before launch was when the decision had to be made.

NASA went off on their own to come up with what they wanted to see for Falcon 9 reuse.  NASA put on constraints.  Only single reflight agreed to. Only a CRS-like mission is where that booster could come from.  Decision was made so finely.   Re-flgiht Readiness Review (RFRR).

NASA was so late making decision because RFRR came in so only allow official decision.

New booster could have effected the launch date.

If they can only reuse "CRS-like" boosters (presuming that means lightweight LEO mission, low reentry stresses on booster, probably LZ-1 only landings) with a single prior flight for CRS missions, then they don't have too many choices.

*edit*
CRS-10 was reused as well.
*/edit*
CRS-8 was already reused, and CRS-9's core is spoken for. They are using the CRS-11 booster. The boosters for CRS-10 and CRS-12 are is available, as far as I know, and presumably the booster for the NROL-76 mission, and possibly the X-37B mission as well.
« Last Edit: 12/11/2017 04:47 PM by whitelancer64 »
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Offline ChrisGebhardt

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : CRS-13 : Dec 15, 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #195 on: 12/11/2017 04:15 PM »
From Updates thread:

Working with NASA since Jan.  Equivalent risk established.  All groups meeting for several months.

2 weeks before launch was when the decision had to be made.

NASA went off on their own to come up with what they wanted to see for Falcon 9 reuse.  NASA put on constraints.  Only single reflight agreed to. Only a CRS-like mission is where that booster could come from.  Decision was made so finely.   Re-flgiht Readiness Review (RFRR).

NASA was so late making decision because RFRR came in so only allow official decision.

New booster could have effected the launch date.

If they can only reuse "CRS-like" boosters (presuming that means lightweight LEO mission, low reentry stresses on booster, probably LZ-1 only landings) with a single prior flight for CRS missions, then they don't have too many choices.

CRS-8 was already reused, and CRS-9's core is spoken for. They are using the CRS-11 booster. The boosters for CRS-10 and 12 are available, as far as I know, and presumably the booster for the NROL-76 mission, and possibly the X-37B mission as well.

CRS-10's booster was reused on SES-11/Echostar-105

Offline input~2

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : CRS-13 : Dec 15, 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #196 on: 12/11/2017 04:33 PM »
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 121638Z TO 12740Z DEC,
ALTERNATE 131616Z TO 131718Z DEC
IN AREA BOUND BY
28-27N 080-38W, 28-38N 080-38W,
31-09N 078-05W, 31-53N 077-06W,
32-08N 076-36W, 31-43N 076-51W,
31-23N 077-11W, 30-59N 077-45W,
28-25N 080-26W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 131818Z DEC 17.//

Authority: EASTERN RANGE 081421Z DEC 17.

Date: 081514Z DEC 17
Cancel: 13181800 Dec 17

INDIAN OCEAN.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET RE-ENTRY
121719Z TO 121843Z DEC,
ALTERNATE 131657Z TO 131821Z DEC
IN AREA BOUND BY
51-06S 157-04E, 47-02S 129-57E,
40-17S 110-10E, 16-53S 080-01E,
19-34S 076-39E, 30-51S 085-09E,
47-09S 110-10E, 52-16S 130-11E,
53-54S 156-29E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 131921Z DEC 17.//

Authority: EASTERN RANGE 081421Z DEC 17.

Date: 081528Z DEC 17
Cancel: 13192100 Dec 17


Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : CRS-13 : Dec 15, 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #197 on: 12/11/2017 05:24 PM »
Chris G has very helpful explained the wind situation (in a series of tweets).

Ill post here for reference (and hopefully save Chris a job!):

Quote
So... #SpaceX launch weather discussion time.  Ground winds are the ONLY thing including in the 90% go prediction for tomorrow.  BUT... upper levels winds need to be watched too - though they're not including in the official weather prediction.  @NASASpaceflight 1/x
https://twitter.com/chrisg_nsf/status/940274653666398208

Quote
They're not included because the 45th weather squadron is not responsible for making a call on Upper Level wind acceptability for launch.  That decision falls to SpaceX.  @NASASpaceflight 2/x

Quote
So tomorrow, the 45th will monitor & report Upper Level Wind (ULW) speed and direction to SpaceX.  SpaceX will then make the call on whether the ULWs are within acceptable limits for launch to proceed. @NASASpaceflight 3/3

Quote
Interesting... Why would SpaceX not release ULW limits to the 45th?
https://twitter.com/therobdale/status/940276586846216192

Quote
It's a moving target constraint depending on launch trajectory, payload, weight, vehicle performance, altitude of winds, direction of winds, speed of winds. Easier for 45th to just report what Upper Level Winds are to SpaceX & let them figure out if the winds are within limits.
https://twitter.com/chrisg_nsf/status/940278038679474180

Quote
Is it known or proprietary what upper level wind speeds would be a no-go call? educated guess? 100+knots?
https://twitter.com/inoeth666/status/940276399457398785

Quote
SpaceX has never stated publicly what the Upper Level Wind speed/direction limits are for Falcon 9.  And the wind speed limit is different based on direction of wind.
https://twitter.com/chrisg_nsf/status/940276974014160897

Thanks Chris, very enlightening.

Offline macpacheco

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : CRS-13 : Dec 15, 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #198 on: 12/11/2017 05:47 PM »
As far as the upper wind thing, its most likely not an absolute number, but rather the GRADIENT that's the problem.
F9 has a lateral acceleration limit. Turbulence and wind shear causes this.
If the wind smoothly accelerates from 0 to 200knots (over 40000ft), there would likely be no problem for F9.
In the real world it doesn't work like that. There are sudden changes in wind.
Its a bit complicated to translate into a simple upper wind speed limit number.
And I wouldn't be surprised if SpaceX is fudging what they expect will be the ultimate safety limit vs a more conservative number they keep slowly stretching.
SpaceX knows what its doing. Let them do it.
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Offline mn

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 : CRS-13 : Dec 15, 2017 : DISCUSSION
« Reply #199 on: 12/11/2017 06:45 PM »
As far as the upper wind thing, its most likely not an absolute number, but rather the GRADIENT that's the problem.
F9 has a lateral acceleration limit. Turbulence and wind shear causes this.
If the wind smoothly accelerates from 0 to 200knots (over 40000ft), there would likely be no problem for F9.
In the real world it doesn't work like that. There are sudden changes in wind.
Its a bit complicated to translate into a simple upper wind speed limit number.
And I wouldn't be surprised if SpaceX is fudging what they expect will be the ultimate safety limit vs a more conservative number they keep slowly stretching.
SpaceX knows what its doing. Let them do it.

AIUI there is wind shear and just plain wind, they both have [different] limits (and certainly those limits are not fixed numbers, but rather depend on lots of details).

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