Author Topic: What is the updated time frame for ITS and BFR?  (Read 1994 times)

Online spacenut

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What is the updated time frame for ITS and BFR?
« on: 04/17/2017 03:31 PM »
After reading about New Glenn, it seems SpaceX needs an intermediate Rocket.  A single stick to match or exceed Falcon Heavy because it is "hard" as Musk said.  I know ITS and BFR will be huge, but nothing has started on the infrastructure yet, the building, launch pad, etc, etc.  Slow.  New Glenn might make FH less cost effective, and rule it out completely for launches.  They may need ITS sooner to compete. 

Online meekGee

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Re: What is the updated time frame for ITS and BFR?
« Reply #1 on: 04/17/2017 06:26 PM »
If F9 is good enough for constellation work, I think that's sufficient.   "Follow the money".

Having a NG-equivalent is a "nice to have", but the schedule cost on the way to ITS is too much.

The business case for NG is far from clear.
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: What is the updated time frame for ITS and BFR?
« Reply #2 on: 04/17/2017 06:39 PM »
I wouldn't worry too much about competition from New Glenn, but I absolutely think SpaceX will be utilizing ITS-related technology to help their business case in the relatively near future, i.e. by the time New Glenn flies.
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Offline TheKutKu

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Re: What is the updated time frame for ITS and BFR?
« Reply #3 on: 04/17/2017 06:57 PM »
According to the recent presentation at the Global Networking Forum, Blue Origin is aiming for 12 launches/year in 2023, at this point F9/FH will be a mature system with S1, S2 and Fairing reuse as well as 4 launch pads, if they price at a slightly lower price than their non-reusable competitiors they should have a large margin, they would simply need to lower their margins to compete with Blue Origin, furthermore B.O. won't be able to launch as many satellites with only one launch pad.

I think SpaceX will try to develop the ITS and make it economical as soon as possible, then they will likely compete with other Launch providers with ITS until their competitors make a second generation of RLVs that can compete with the (unnecessary large for commercial satellites)  ITS, at this point SpaceX will make a smaller launch vehicle.
« Last Edit: 04/17/2017 07:00 PM by TheKutKu »

Offline Lar

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Re: What is the updated time frame for ITS and BFR?
« Reply #4 on: 04/17/2017 07:22 PM »
I think SpaceX will try to develop the ITS and make it economical as soon as possible, then they will likely compete with other Launch providers with ITS until their competitors make a second generation of RLVs that can compete with the (unnecessary large for commercial satellites)  ITS, at this point SpaceX will make a smaller launch vehicle.
Or switch to hub and spoke. ITS to LEO, space tugs the rest of the way (fueled with asteroid derived volatiles eventually, but with earth derived fuels delivered via ITS tanker initially)
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: What is the updated time frame for ITS and BFR?
« Reply #5 on: 04/17/2017 07:41 PM »
I think SpaceX will try to develop the ITS and make it economical as soon as possible, then they will likely compete with other Launch providers with ITS until their competitors make a second generation of RLVs that can compete with the (unnecessary large for commercial satellites)  ITS, at this point SpaceX will make a smaller launch vehicle.
Or switch to hub and spoke. ITS to LEO, space tugs the rest of the way (fueled with asteroid derived volatiles eventually, but with earth derived fuels delivered via ITS tanker initially)
But you'd save no development money as now you need to develop more vehicles.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Kaputnik

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Re: What is the updated time frame for ITS and BFR?
« Reply #6 on: 04/18/2017 07:01 AM »
I think SpaceX will try to develop the ITS and make it economical as soon as possible, then they will likely compete with other Launch providers with ITS until their competitors make a second generation of RLVs that can compete with the (unnecessary large for commercial satellites)  ITS, at this point SpaceX will make a smaller launch vehicle.
Or switch to hub and spoke. ITS to LEO, space tugs the rest of the way (fueled with asteroid derived volatiles eventually, but with earth derived fuels delivered via ITS tanker initially)
But you'd save no development money as now you need to develop more vehicles.

Unless you learn something from the interim vehicle that is useful towards the bigger one.
Did they learn nothing from F1?
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