Author Topic: SpaceX FH : Falcon Heavy Demo : early 2018 : Discussion  (Read 422953 times)

Offline Oersted

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Re: SpaceX FH : Falcon Heavy Demo : early 2018 : Discussion
« Reply #660 on: 12/30/2017 11:14 AM »
So...let me get this strait.  We have the most eagerly-awaited rocket roll-out in decades, and all we get are long-distance shots and no up-close hi-res's from SpaceX?

To the general public it would look weird with a headline saying "the rocket went to the launch pad and was then carted back into its hangar again". They'll roll out the PR train when it comes out for launch.

Online Herb Schaltegger

I don't think that there is any realistic prospect of SpaceX confirming actively that the roadster gets to its destination orbit. All they will be able to do is monitor the second stage for as long as possible to confirm its trajectory. All they'll ever be able to say is: "With a high degree of confidence..."

Doppler tracking and telemetry from the stage itself within milliseconds of the S2 injection burn cutoff will tell them EXACTLY what the final trajectory will be, absent any unplanned venting events (debris impact or valve failure leading to overpressure). They don't need an active second stage, broadcasting for days, weeks or months to "follow" the stage and watch.
« Last Edit: 12/30/2017 12:45 PM by Herb Schaltegger »
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Offline clongton

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Re: SpaceX FH : Falcon Heavy Demo : early 2018 : Discussion
« Reply #662 on: 12/30/2017 01:13 PM »
I know I am not going to make any friends by saying this but it needs to be said.

I would majorly hate to be a member of the generation that just can't stand to wait until it [whatever "it" may be] actually happens. I get the impression that they would never be able to stand the wait time of several YEARS while a probe makes its way to Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, Pluto or the Ort cloud. Their heads would explode. Try launching a probe like that knowing that you yourself may very well not live long enough to see it arrive and that children who are in 4th grade at launch date would likely be the scientists that would monitor and record the arrival. Do you have the patience for that?

Jeepers people. The solar system isn't your back yard that can be crossed in a leap and a bound.
SpaceX will provide photographs when it wants to and not one second before - they don't owe any of us a thing.
Falcon Heavy will launch when it is ready. - Give it a rest and have a cup of tea or coffee or latte-mocha-chi-whatever.
Chill. It will happen when it happens.
THIS site will be the first to let you know it's happening so just stay tuned and quit complaining.
« Last Edit: 12/30/2017 01:14 PM by clongton »
Chuck - DIRECT co-founder
I started my career on the Saturn-V F-1A engine

Online SimonFD

I know I am not going to make any friends by saying this but it needs to be said.

I would majorly hate to be a member of the generation that just can't stand to wait until it [whatever "it" may be] actually happens. I get the impression that they would never be able to stand the wait time of several YEARS while a probe makes its way to Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, Pluto or the Ort cloud. Their heads would explode. Try launching a probe like that knowing that you yourself may very well not live long enough to see it arrive and that children who are in 4th grade at launch date would likely be the scientists that would monitor and record the arrival. Do you have the patience for that?

Jeepers people. The solar system isn't your back yard that can be crossed in a leap and a bound.
SpaceX will provide photographs when it wants to and not one second before - they don't owe any of us a thing.
Falcon Heavy will launch when it is ready. - Give it a rest and have a cup of tea or coffee or latte-mocha-chi-whatever.
Chill. It will happen when it happens.
THIS site will be the first to let you know it's happening so just stay tuned and quit complaining.

Ah, the impatience of youth, assisted by a culture hell bent on instant gratification, topped by the photos-or-it-didn't-happen dogma.

 ;) 8)

Just in case that wasn't clear - I agree with Chuck
« Last Edit: 12/30/2017 01:26 PM by SimonFD »
Space is big! Really big! You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind- bogglingly big it is! I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist's, but that's just peanuts to space. Listen............

Online AncientU

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Re: SpaceX FH : Falcon Heavy Demo : early 2018 : Discussion
« Reply #664 on: 12/30/2017 01:24 PM »
I know I am not going to make any friends by saying this but it needs to be said.

I would majorly hate to be a member of the generation that just can't stand to wait until it [whatever "it" may be] actually happens. I get the impression that they would never be able to stand the wait time of several YEARS while a probe makes its way to Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, Pluto or the Ort cloud. Their heads would explode. Try launching a probe like that knowing that you yourself may very well not live long enough to see it arrive and that children who are in 4th grade at launch date would likely be the scientists that would monitor and record the arrival. Do you have the patience for that?

Jeepers people. The solar system isn't your back yard that can be crossed in a leap and a bound.
SpaceX will provide photographs when it wants to and not one second before - they don't owe any of us a thing.
Falcon Heavy will launch when it is ready. - Give it a rest and have a cup of tea or coffee or latte-mocha-chi-whatever.
Chill. It will happen when it happens.
THIS site will be the first to let you know it's happening so just stay tuned and quit complaining.

Ah, the impatience of youth, assisted by a culture hell bent on instant gratification, topped by the photos-or-it-didn't-happen dogma.

 ;) 8)

The flip side is waiting patiently, like an 'adult,' for decades -- all the while knowing deep down that it will never happen. 

Seems to me, it takes a healthy portion of each to get something useful done.
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
-- SpaceX friend of mlindner

Offline cscott

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Re: SpaceX FH : Falcon Heavy Demo : early 2018 : Discussion
« Reply #665 on: 12/30/2017 01:30 PM »


Yeah, judging from some coincidentally accurate porkchop plots and a few articles, Roadster can certainly make it to a rather close encounter with Mars, it just might take anywhere from a 12-24 month coast period to get there.

What's with the asymptote in that porkchop plot?  It seems like the required dV around Jan 15 is actually extremely sensitive to the exact date selected.  Is that just an artifact of some other choice made in the plot, or is there an actual orbital mechanics reason why Jan 15 would be so much worse than Jan 1?

Offline woods170

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Re: SpaceX FH : Falcon Heavy Demo : early 2018 : Discussion
« Reply #666 on: 12/30/2017 01:50 PM »
So...let me get this strait.  We have the most eagerly-awaited rocket roll-out in decades, and all we get are long-distance shots and no up-close hi-res's from SpaceX?

Patience, young Padawan.

Yeah, I keep telling Pargoo that but he just won't listen. Stubborn he is. ;)

Offline daveklingler

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Re: SpaceX FH : Falcon Heavy Demo : early 2018 : Discussion
« Reply #667 on: 12/30/2017 02:07 PM »
So...let me get this strait.  We have the most eagerly-awaited rocket roll-out in decades, and all we get are long-distance shots and no up-close hi-res's from SpaceX?

Patience, young Padawan.

Yeah, I keep telling Pargoo that but he just won't listen. Stubborn he is. ;)

Launch it.  :)

Offline Rocket Science

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Re: SpaceX FH : Falcon Heavy Demo : early 2018 : Discussion
« Reply #668 on: 12/30/2017 02:28 PM »
Photos and video are more than likely being taken for engineering documentation, just not released...They have other priorities at this time which also happens to be in the middle of a holiday week... Keep calm, Go SpaceX...
« Last Edit: 12/30/2017 02:32 PM by Rocket Science »
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Online the_other_Doug

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Re: SpaceX FH : Falcon Heavy Demo : early 2018 : Discussion
« Reply #669 on: 12/30/2017 04:31 PM »
Just a quick question -- I've seen a lot of images of FH being brought out to the pad, erected, then brought back down to horizontal.  But nothing showing that it has been put back in the HIF.

Is it being left outside and on the pad?  If so, should we expect a couple more test erections and de-erections?

:)
-Doug  (With my shield, not yet upon it)

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Re: SpaceX FH : Falcon Heavy Demo : early 2018 : Discussion
« Reply #670 on: 12/30/2017 04:36 PM »
So...let me get this strait.  We have the most eagerly-awaited rocket roll-out in decades, and all we get are long-distance shots and no up-close hi-res's from SpaceX?

Patience, young Padawan.

Yeah, I keep telling Pargoo that but he just won't listen. Stubborn he is. ;)
Someone over in a. competitor’s thread just called SX risk averse. :D

I think launches are addictive. The more we get, the more we want.
Space is not Highlander.  There can, and will, be more than one.

Offline atsf90east

I can't help but wonder what the excitement and comments would have been like if the internet had existed in May of 1966 when Saturn V 500F was rolled out to Pad 39A for fit checks.
Attended Launches: Space Shuttle: STS-85, STS-95, STS-96, STS-103. Falcon 9: Thaicom-8

Offline CyndyC

I see very little (if any) risk for POGO for FH, since they are flying the same stages as F9. Same engines, same tank lengths. POGO - if present - will show up in early launches.

All this talk of possible failure points - one more dramatic than the next - starts to border on concern trolling, IMO. “Surely SpaceX has not thought of *this*?”

According to what I Googled, pogo was successfully mitigated throughout the Shuttle launch program with only 3 engines each but had a way of creeping back into the Apollo program in spite of mitigation, all the way through Apollo 17.

I doubt people here think they are pointing out anything SpaceX people don't already know, but instead are trying to figure out their extra concerns based on the scary odds Elon has given the launch attempt, beyond the lists Chris Gebhardt has presented in his single core static fire articles.

The majority of concerns are probably even more innocuous than mn's suggestion of issues discretely times 3 in place of 3 times the issues. There might be one valve in one core that needs replacing as there has been in the past. 

I'm amazed that people continue to not understand the expectations game that Elon plays - all the time.

If they truly think that FH only has a 50% chance of succeeding, they are not going to launch. Period. They are going to want to be a lot more confident than that.

The 1st statement is true to some extent. I've only witnessed his giving the same odds for the 1st landing attempt, and even though when asked in a Reddit AMA shortly in advance how he had calculated those odds he admitted they were completely estimated, look what happened then.

However, the 2nd statement I tend to agree with, and since Elon gave the 50/50 odds some months ago, and there are obviously many who trust his instincts, some of those same people have probably done additional checks & corrections & increased the odds of success in the interim.

The biggest indication for observers of the odds of success or failure closer to launch time is going to be the range of the hazard area, and I would NOT want to be in the USAF's position of determining that. I won't go as far as quoting the aftermath of the historically largest pad explosion, but suffice it to say windows were blown off buildings as far away as 35 & 40 km (~22 & 25 mi), and for those feeling strong enough to read more my source is http://www.russianspaceweb.com/n1_5l.html.
"Joy to the world!" -- G.F. Handel

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX FH : Falcon Heavy Demo : early 2018 : Discussion
« Reply #673 on: 12/30/2017 05:49 PM »
Just a quick question -- I've seen a lot of images of FH being brought out to the pad, erected, then brought back down to horizontal.  But nothing showing that it has been put back in the HIF.

Is it being left outside and on the pad?  If so, should we expect a couple more test erections and de-erections?

:)

Now have confirmation it’s back in the HIF:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44376.msg1765919#msg1765919

Offline RocketLover0119

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Re: SpaceX FH : Falcon Heavy Demo : early 2018 : Discussion
« Reply #674 on: 12/30/2017 06:17 PM »
According to Chris B's (awesome) article, we currently ( but don't be shocked if this slips) have a SF targeted for the 6th with a window opening on the 15th. And also what time of day is it going to be?
"The Falcon has landed"

Online Heinrich

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Re: SpaceX FH : Falcon Heavy Demo : early 2018 : Discussion
« Reply #675 on: 12/30/2017 06:24 PM »
I knew the engines were going to be started 2 at a time. But I always thought this meant at each core. (So in total 6 at a time, 5 steps). Todays article by Chris says:
"It is understood that two Merlin 1D engines will be lit simultaneously followed by the next two… and so on until all 27 are up and running, providing a controlled ramp up to full power for the business end of the vehicle."
Which to me suggests only 2 at a time, so 14 steps in total.


Can someone clarify?
« Last Edit: 12/30/2017 06:25 PM by Heinrich »

Offline dnavas

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Re: SpaceX FH : Falcon Heavy Demo : early 2018 : Discussion
« Reply #676 on: 12/30/2017 06:46 PM »
I know I am not going to make any friends by saying this but it needs to be said.

I would majorly hate to be a member of the generation that just can't stand to wait until it [whatever "it" may be] actually happens.
The flip side is waiting patiently, like an 'adult,' for decades -- all the while knowing deep down that it will never happen. 

I think the flip side is getting off your own backside and doing something about it.  Either you're waiting to be a witness, or you're pressing to be a participant.

Most of us here are witnesses, and my counsel would be to find many things to watch in between the times when you work.  We've got a launch on the 4th, and a static fire on the 6th.  Then we wait to see what the outcome of that is (from launch mid-month to another pad rebuild .. ).  While we wait, there's CES the week after with cameras (to photograph launches) and maybe even processors (to edit the footage).  And then, hopefully, a launch....  Not sure I understand where the impatience comes from -- there's a LOT going on, especially in this corner of the world.  Heck, the last launch I watched was actually two -- JAXA and SpaceX, practically at the exact same time!
« Last Edit: 12/30/2017 06:47 PM by dnavas »

Offline Rocket Science

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Re: SpaceX FH : Falcon Heavy Demo : early 2018 : Discussion
« Reply #677 on: 12/30/2017 06:49 PM »
I see very little (if any) risk for POGO for FH, since they are flying the same stages as F9. Same engines, same tank lengths. POGO - if present - will show up in early launches.

All this talk of possible failure points - one more dramatic than the next - starts to border on concern trolling, IMO. “Surely SpaceX has not thought of *this*?”
Over the years they though up a "lot of things" that went off with a "bang"... Flight testing is not just to uncover what you haven't thought of but also to "confirm" what you have by building confidence in the modeling... So please don't worry too much by trying to be the "SpaceX thought police"...
"The laws of physics are unforgiving"
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Online jpo234

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Re: SpaceX FH : Falcon Heavy Demo : early 2018 : Discussion
« Reply #678 on: 12/30/2017 07:33 PM »



I think launches are addictive. The more we get, the more we want.

There will be a saturation point when the Starlink build-up goes into full swing.
You want to be inspired by things. You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great. That's what being a spacefaring civilization is all about. It's about believing in the future and believing the future will be better than the past. And I can't think of anything more exciting than being out there among the stars.




I think launches are addictive. The more we get, the more we want.

There will be a saturation point when the Starlink build-up goes into full swing.

Assuming most if not all are broadcast to us of course. If launches become too numerous and common then I can see them only broadcasting special launches such as Crew launches, FH launches, etc. But anyway, back to Falcon Heavy.

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