Author Topic: SpaceX customers' views on reuse  (Read 176009 times)

Offline AncientU

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6250
  • Liked: 4115
  • Likes Given: 5628
Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #600 on: 11/16/2018 02:26 pm »
Not sure if this has been noted, but two boosters (1046/7) have completed double GTO flights.  Customers don't seem to be worried about reusing these stages after high energy launches/recoveries.
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
-- SpaceX friend of mlindner

Online FutureSpaceTourist

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7185
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 7444
  • Likes Given: 2489
Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #601 on: 11/17/2018 02:19 am »
Not sure if this has been noted, but two boosters (1046/7) have completed double GTO flights.  Customers don't seem to be worried about reusing these stages after high energy launches/recoveries.

True and of course 1046 has had 2 GTO flights and about to be re-used again. I imagine that as this point - after so many booster reuses - most customers just trust that SpaceX know what they're doing. Should be plenty of data on the comparative condition of boosters after LEO and GTO flights etc.

Online marsbase

  • Member
  • Posts: 97
  • North Carolina
  • Liked: 68
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #602 on: 11/19/2018 03:20 pm »
NASA Associate Administraor Steve Jurczyk says the reusability of BFR and New Glenn will lead to "retirement" of the SLS.  Of course, it may retire before it ever launches.
https://www.businessinsider.com/nasa-sls-replacement-spacex-bfr-blue-origin-new-glenn-2018-11

Online Tulse

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 205
  • Liked: 134
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #603 on: 11/19/2018 05:58 pm »
I'm shocked that anyone official would admit to this, as it really points out the whole futility of the project.

Offline woods170

  • IRAS fan
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8827
  • IRAS fan
  • The Netherlands
  • Liked: 5877
  • Likes Given: 1989
Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #604 on: 11/20/2018 06:59 am »
I'm shocked that anyone official would admit to this, as it really points out the whole futility of the project.
Not an SLS thread this is, so let's not go there. There is plenty of SLS threads to discuss any concerns related to SLS.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7185
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 7444
  • Likes Given: 2489
Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #605 on: 12/16/2018 07:14 pm »
It seems at least part of USAF’s uncertainty over flight proven boosters is whether the performance lost to recover the booster significantly affects the chances of carrying out their missions:

Quote
Air Force open to reusable rockets, but SpaceX must first demonstrate performance
by Sandra Erwin — December 16, 2018

The Air Force will need time to review SpaceX’s performance as it executes EELV launches before it would consider flying military payloads on reusable rockets.

https://spacenews.com/air-force-open-to-reusable-rockets-but-spacex-must-first-demonstrate-performance/

Offline JamesH65

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 970
  • Liked: 687
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #606 on: 12/16/2018 09:17 pm »
It seems at least part of USAF’s uncertainty over flight proven boosters is whether the performance lost to recover the booster significantly affects the chances of carrying out their missions:

Quote
Air Force open to reusable rockets, but SpaceX must first demonstrate performance
by Sandra Erwin — December 16, 2018

The Air Force will need time to review SpaceX’s performance as it executes EELV launches before it would consider flying military payloads on reusable rockets.

https://spacenews.com/air-force-open-to-reusable-rockets-but-spacex-must-first-demonstrate-performance/

Sems odd to have that as a concern, when every single mission (ignoring the two failures as they were not related to performance) has succeeded, and therefor must have had sufficient performance.

Offline deruch

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2395
  • California
  • Liked: 1933
  • Likes Given: 4875
Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #607 on: 12/18/2018 03:44 pm »
It seems at least part of USAF’s uncertainty over flight proven boosters is whether the performance lost to recover the booster significantly affects the chances of carrying out their missions:

Quote
Air Force open to reusable rockets, but SpaceX must first demonstrate performance
by Sandra Erwin — December 16, 2018

The Air Force will need time to review SpaceX’s performance as it executes EELV launches before it would consider flying military payloads on reusable rockets.

https://spacenews.com/air-force-open-to-reusable-rockets-but-spacex-must-first-demonstrate-performance/

Sems odd to have that as a concern, when every single mission (ignoring the two failures as they were not related to performance) has succeeded, and therefor must have had sufficient performance.

The USAF isn't just interested in mission success.  They also want to see that predicted performance and expected margins are well aligned with actual performance and achieved margins.  If the vehicle is just so "over capable" that it can make up for regular and/or significant shortfalls... Well, that's better than a poke in the eye.  But it won't help the AF get more comfortable about their "uncertainties".
Shouldn't reality posts be in "Advanced concepts"?  --Nomadd

Offline woods170

  • IRAS fan
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8827
  • IRAS fan
  • The Netherlands
  • Liked: 5877
  • Likes Given: 1989
Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #608 on: 12/19/2018 06:43 am »
It seems at least part of USAF’s uncertainty over flight proven boosters is whether the performance lost to recover the booster significantly affects the chances of carrying out their missions:

Quote
Air Force open to reusable rockets, but SpaceX must first demonstrate performance
by Sandra Erwin — December 16, 2018

The Air Force will need time to review SpaceX’s performance as it executes EELV launches before it would consider flying military payloads on reusable rockets.

https://spacenews.com/air-force-open-to-reusable-rockets-but-spacex-must-first-demonstrate-performance/

Sems odd to have that as a concern, when every single mission (ignoring the two failures as they were not related to performance) has succeeded, and therefor must have had sufficient performance.

The USAF isn't just interested in mission success.  They also want to see that predicted performance and expected margins are well aligned with actual performance and achieved margins.  If the vehicle is just so "over capable" that it can make up for regular and/or significant shortfalls... Well, that's better than a poke in the eye.  But it won't help the AF get more comfortable about their "uncertainties".

It is more like this: USAF EELV folks are scared to death by Falcon 9. You see, they weren't there when it was designed, built and tested. Unlike the previous EELV vehicles, such as Delta IV and Atlas V.

So they don't immediately believe SpaceX's claims about the reliability and performance of Falcon 9.

The only way to convince the EELV folks is to build their confidence thru multiple successful launches and demonstrated performance.

Offline JamesH65

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 970
  • Liked: 687
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #609 on: 12/19/2018 01:20 pm »
It seems at least part of USAF’s uncertainty over flight proven boosters is whether the performance lost to recover the booster significantly affects the chances of carrying out their missions:

Quote
Air Force open to reusable rockets, but SpaceX must first demonstrate performance
by Sandra Erwin — December 16, 2018

The Air Force will need time to review SpaceX’s performance as it executes EELV launches before it would consider flying military payloads on reusable rockets.

https://spacenews.com/air-force-open-to-reusable-rockets-but-spacex-must-first-demonstrate-performance/

Sems odd to have that as a concern, when every single mission (ignoring the two failures as they were not related to performance) has succeeded, and therefor must have had sufficient performance.

The USAF isn't just interested in mission success.  They also want to see that predicted performance and expected margins are well aligned with actual performance and achieved margins.  If the vehicle is just so "over capable" that it can make up for regular and/or significant shortfalls... Well, that's better than a poke in the eye.  But it won't help the AF get more comfortable about their "uncertainties".

It is more like this: USAF EELV folks are scared to death by Falcon 9. You see, they weren't there when it was designed, built and tested. Unlike the previous EELV vehicles, such as Delta IV and Atlas V.

So they don't immediately believe SpaceX's claims about the reliability and performance of Falcon 9.

The only way to convince the EELV folks is to build their confidence thru multiple successful launches and demonstrated performance.

Which they already have I pressume. There have been 62 F9 launches, every single one instrucmented up the hilt. How much more information do they actually need? What was missing from those 62 flights that requires even more testing and information?

Offline docmordrid

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5322
  • Michigan
  • Liked: 2628
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #610 on: 12/19/2018 02:09 pm »
>
What was missing from those 62 flights that requires even more testing and information?

Stickers saying "Made in..."  Alabama, Colorado or Utah.

Offline woods170

  • IRAS fan
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8827
  • IRAS fan
  • The Netherlands
  • Liked: 5877
  • Likes Given: 1989
Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #611 on: 12/19/2018 05:27 pm »
It is more like this: USAF EELV folks are scared to death by Falcon 9. You see, they weren't there when it was designed, built and tested. Unlike the previous EELV vehicles, such as Delta IV and Atlas V.

So they don't immediately believe SpaceX's claims about the reliability and performance of Falcon 9.

The only way to convince the EELV folks is to build their confidence thru multiple successful launches and demonstrated performance.

Which they already have I pressume. There have been 62 F9 launches, every single one instrucmented up the hilt. How much more information do they actually need? What was missing from those 62 flights that requires even more testing and information?

EELV boys-and-girls independently monitoring the flight, including all the prepping that went into it. Not just getting all the data from SpaceX after the fact, but being in the factory and on-console, as an embedded team, during the entire thing.
That might seem like just a small difference but it is big issue for USAF's EELV folks.
« Last Edit: 12/19/2018 05:29 pm by woods170 »

Offline rockets4life97

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 604
  • Liked: 302
  • Likes Given: 254
Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #612 on: 12/19/2018 06:32 pm »
EELV boys-and-girls independently monitoring the flight, including all the prepping that went into it. Not just getting all the data from SpaceX after the fact, but being in the factory and on-console, as an embedded team, during the entire thing.
That might seem like just a small difference but it is big issue for USAF's EELV folks.

Sounds like the NASA folks should ask the EELV folks about SpaceX's safety culture for an outside opinion.

Offline meberbs

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1916
  • Liked: 1818
  • Likes Given: 421
Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #613 on: 12/21/2018 05:33 am »
Meanwhile news about STP-2 from what is clearly a parallel reality:

https://spacenews.com/nasa-looking-to-launch-delayed-space-science-missions-in-early-2019/
Quote
Fox said the mission will launch on the second of two back-to-back launches of SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket, after the launch of the Arabsat-6A spacecraft. “It will launch after the successful launch of Arabsat, which is currently manifested for March,” she said.

The two launches, she said, will use the same set of first stage booster cores. “They will recover and reuse the boosters,” she said, with the second launch taking place about a month after the first. “So we’re kind of watching what happens with that first launch.”

It isn't really that strange given the difference in mission intent and payload value compared to GPS-III, but I can't say I expected the Air Force to accept it for this flight. (Note, the quoted comments are from someone on the NASA side, Air Force and SpaceX have not confirmed.)

Offline ZachF

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 703
  • NH, USA, Earth
  • Liked: 769
  • Likes Given: 158
Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #614 on: 12/23/2018 11:23 pm »
It seems at least part of USAF’s uncertainty over flight proven boosters is whether the performance lost to recover the booster significantly affects the chances of carrying out their missions:

Quote
Air Force open to reusable rockets, but SpaceX must first demonstrate performance
by Sandra Erwin — December 16, 2018

The Air Force will need time to review SpaceX’s performance as it executes EELV launches before it would consider flying military payloads on reusable rockets.

https://spacenews.com/air-force-open-to-reusable-rockets-but-spacex-must-first-demonstrate-performance/

Sems odd to have that as a concern, when every single mission (ignoring the two failures as they were not related to performance) has succeeded, and therefor must have had sufficient performance.

The USAF isn't just interested in mission success.  They also want to see that predicted performance and expected margins are well aligned with actual performance and achieved margins.  If the vehicle is just so "over capable" that it can make up for regular and/or significant shortfalls... Well, that's better than a poke in the eye.  But it won't help the AF get more comfortable about their "uncertainties".

The largest amount of uncertainty probably comes from SpaceX's lack of high six-figure consultant job openings for retiring Air Force generals...
artist, so take opinions expressed above with a well-rendered grain of salt...
https://www.instagram.com/artzf/

Tags: