Author Topic: SpaceX customers' views on reuse  (Read 76834 times)

Offline Lar

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #200 on: 06/28/2017 06:08 PM »
No doubt there will be some that want to see this pace sustained for several years before counting on it.
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Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #201 on: 06/28/2017 06:16 PM »
No doubt there will be some that want to see this pace sustained for several years before counting on it.

If they want to wait several years before they count on it, they can, but that will be a very expensive luxury.  I expect the U.S. government to pay for that expensive luxury (it's taxpayer money, not their money, so why not?), but not many businesses for very long.

Offline mme

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #202 on: 06/28/2017 07:02 PM »
...
Plus Ariane have excellent record of launching on time as long as locals play nice.

To make a good business decision, One Web should be projecting what is likely in the future rather than just what has happened in the past.  SpaceX is a newer entrant and they've been ramping up.  As the last few months have shown, they are now hitting their stride and doing launches regularly at a very good pace.  A smart person would take all that into consideration and project it's likely that by the time One Web is ready to launch, it's likely there will be no more delay with SpaceX than there would be with Ariane.
I am as big a SpaceX fan as anyone but it's a bit of a stretch to imagine anyone could guess when, if ever, SpaceX would "hit their stride."  OneWeb clearly placed more value on schedule reliability than launch cost. That is a valid business decision.
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Online AncientU

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #203 on: 06/28/2017 10:14 PM »
Remember that OneWeb needed to make that business decision two years ago.  Two years ago, SpaceX manifest stretched to the horizon... still isn't promising without reuse (and two years ago, reuse was empirically sketchy at best).

If I were making it, I would have chosen Soyuz, too.  Today, it would be a more challenging decision.
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Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #204 on: 06/29/2017 07:38 AM »
Remember that OneWeb needed to make that business decision two years ago.  Two years ago, SpaceX manifest stretched to the horizon... still isn't promising without reuse (and two years ago, reuse was empirically sketchy at best).

If I were making it, I would have chosen Soyuz, too.  Today, it would be a more challenging decision.

And yet a lot of other companies who were launching sooner chose SpaceX.  Even two years ago I think it was reasonable to project that SpaceX's ability to deliver on time would be improving by the time One Web will be ready to launch.

If I had been making the decision for One Web two years ago, I would have gone with SpaceX, unless SpaceX was not offering reasonable terms because One Web is a direct competitor of SpaceX's own CommX plans.

Online AncientU

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #205 on: 06/29/2017 02:11 PM »
Remember that OneWeb needed to make that business decision two years ago.  Two years ago, SpaceX manifest stretched to the horizon... still isn't promising without reuse (and two years ago, reuse was empirically sketchy at best).

If I were making it, I would have chosen Soyuz, too.  Today, it would be a more challenging decision.

And yet a lot of other companies who were launching sooner chose SpaceX.  Even two years ago I think it was reasonable to project that SpaceX's ability to deliver on time would be improving by the time One Web will be ready to launch.

If I had been making the decision for One Web two years ago, I would have gone with SpaceX, unless SpaceX was not offering reasonable terms because One Web is a direct competitor of SpaceX's own CommX plans.

I don't disagree that SpaceX would have been an option, and the competition thing may have factored in for sure... still, 24 launches in three years is a big ask for a company that was launching 6 or less per year and with that backlog.  Whatever. 

Decision made as it had to be in a business environment where waiting until more information is available is also a decision -- frequently the wrong one.
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Online envy887

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #206 on: 07/06/2017 02:35 AM »
Intelsat will "definitely consider" reuse:

Quote
Ken Lee, vice president of space systems for Intelsat, said ... Intelsat satellites are generally too heavy for the current version of the Falcon 9 rocket and no other SpaceX launches are currently planned. But he said Intelsat considers SpaceX "a viable option for us, and we'll engage them. If the payload works out right for them, then we don't have any reservation using SpaceX."

He also said he supports SpaceX's drive to lower launch costs by recovering, refurbishing and relaunching spent stages, adding that he expects the cost of a used stage to continue dropping as SpaceX perfects recovery procedures and techniques. But that doesn't mean Intelsat is ready to fly on a previously-flown rocket.

"I am convinced that a reusable rocket system is a viable option in the future," he said. "I am not convinced, today, that we are willing to get on the rocket. Having said that, as they demonstrate their successes, and of course it comes with a price in schedule assurance and quality, if all those terms are correct then we'll definitely consider that in the future."

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/spacex-falcon9-comsat-launch-successful-july-5-2017/

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #207 on: 07/06/2017 03:59 AM »
Intelsat will "definitely consider" reuse:

Quote
Ken Lee, vice president of space systems for Intelsat, said ... Intelsat satellites are generally too heavy for the current version of the Falcon 9 rocket and no other SpaceX launches are currently planned. But he said Intelsat considers SpaceX "a viable option for us, and we'll engage them. If the payload works out right for them, then we don't have any reservation using SpaceX."

He also said he supports SpaceX's drive to lower launch costs by recovering, refurbishing and relaunching spent stages, adding that he expects the cost of a used stage to continue dropping as SpaceX perfects recovery procedures and techniques. But that doesn't mean Intelsat is ready to fly on a previously-flown rocket.

"I am convinced that a reusable rocket system is a viable option in the future," he said. "I am not convinced, today, that we are willing to get on the rocket. Having said that, as they demonstrate their successes, and of course it comes with a price in schedule assurance and quality, if all those terms are correct then we'll definitely consider that in the future."

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/spacex-falcon9-comsat-launch-successful-july-5-2017/
If Intelsat want to launch larger satellites with SpaceX, they may have to accept reuseable boosters. For larger sats the FH will be used with reusable boosters. Of course a customer can pay for expendable FH but I doubt it would be worth it compared to very reliable Ariane 5.

Offline DreamyPickle

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #208 on: 07/06/2017 02:08 PM »
If Intelsat want to launch larger satellites with SpaceX, they may have to accept reuseable boosters. For larger sats the FH will be used with reusable boosters. Of course a customer can pay for expendable FH but I doubt it would be worth it compared to very reliable Ariane 5.

I don't think customers get to decide on reusable boosters, at most they can reject a *reused* booster. Whenever SpaceX can recover the booster then they will do so and offer it to the competition (perhaps at a discount).

For FH in particular it's reasonable to expect that it will almost never need to fly in a fully expendable configuration. So if somebody wants to pay extra for a new booster that money will end up expanding the fleet.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #209 on: 07/06/2017 03:25 PM »
Intelsat will "definitely consider" reuse:

Quote
Ken Lee, vice president of space systems for Intelsat, said ... Intelsat satellites are generally too heavy for the current version of the Falcon 9 rocket and no other SpaceX launches are currently planned. But he said Intelsat considers SpaceX "a viable option for us, and we'll engage them. If the payload works out right for them, then we don't have any reservation using SpaceX."

He also said he supports SpaceX's drive to lower launch costs by recovering, refurbishing and relaunching spent stages, adding that he expects the cost of a used stage to continue dropping as SpaceX perfects recovery procedures and techniques. But that doesn't mean Intelsat is ready to fly on a previously-flown rocket.

"I am convinced that a reusable rocket system is a viable option in the future," he said. "I am not convinced, today, that we are willing to get on the rocket. Having said that, as they demonstrate their successes, and of course it comes with a price in schedule assurance and quality, if all those terms are correct then we'll definitely consider that in the future."

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/spacex-falcon9-comsat-launch-successful-july-5-2017/
If Intelsat want to launch larger satellites with SpaceX, they may have to accept reuseable boosters. For larger sats the FH will be used with reusable boosters. Of course a customer can pay for expendable FH but I doubt it would be worth it compared to very reliable Ariane 5.
I think the key deciding item on use of reused boosters is not so much Price as a New F9 is the lowest cost LV now. But that a used booster can increase availability of launch date and even a short on contract to launch date case.

Iridium and Intelsat have expressed similar views about availability being more important to them than cost of LV

Online WindnWar

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #210 on: 07/06/2017 04:02 PM »
Intelsat will "definitely consider" reuse:

Quote
Ken Lee, vice president of space systems for Intelsat, said ... Intelsat satellites are generally too heavy for the current version of the Falcon 9 rocket and no other SpaceX launches are currently planned. But he said Intelsat considers SpaceX "a viable option for us, and we'll engage them. If the payload works out right for them, then we don't have any reservation using SpaceX."

He also said he supports SpaceX's drive to lower launch costs by recovering, refurbishing and relaunching spent stages, adding that he expects the cost of a used stage to continue dropping as SpaceX perfects recovery procedures and techniques. But that doesn't mean Intelsat is ready to fly on a previously-flown rocket.

"I am convinced that a reusable rocket system is a viable option in the future," he said. "I am not convinced, today, that we are willing to get on the rocket. Having said that, as they demonstrate their successes, and of course it comes with a price in schedule assurance and quality, if all those terms are correct then we'll definitely consider that in the future."

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/spacex-falcon9-comsat-launch-successful-july-5-2017/

Unless its due to SpaceX not wanting to sell expendable launches, the statement about the sats being too heavy doesn't seem to make sense as from what I can find on their upcoming launches none of them appear heavier than the current launch. And a few are under 4,000 kilos, which would be good reuse candidates.

Seems like they want to wait awhile longer for more reuse flights before they sign on for any. In the last 20 years they've only had two launch failures, one on a Zenit in 2013 and one on a Long March back in 1996. I suppose with the Zenit failure they've taken the approach of being very cautious with launch providers.


Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #211 on: 09/23/2017 09:37 AM »
Article at investors.com saying USAF getting more interested in re-use.

Also a concrete example in the article of one of the often claimed benefits of re-use:

Was this previously known?

http://www.investors.com/news/air-force-space-chief-is-all-in-for-reusable-rockets-if-proved-safe/

Quote
In addition to the cost savings, there's another upside to launching reusable rockets. Brig. Gen. Wayne Monteith, commander of the 45th Space Wing, noted in an interview Tuesday that engineers can actually look at the hardware after it's flown.

For instance, a Falcon rocket had a problem with its GPS systems that likely wouldn't have been discernible from the telemetry data alone, he said. Crews looked at the rocket when it came down and discovered that there wan't enough silicon around a screw.

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #212 on: 10/16/2017 08:38 AM »
Ken Kremer article about SpaceX re-use including interview with SES CTO Martin Halliwell post SES-11 launch last week;

https://www.universetoday.com/137482/musks-era-of-routinely-re-flown-rockets-ala-spacex-a-major-sea-change-getting-closer-every-day-says-ses-cto-halliwell-ses-11-launch-gallery/

Yet more evidence of the (relative) schedule benefits of customers accepting booster re-use. With SpaceX customers, including SES, still experiencing further delays due to the size of the order backlog, re-use looks to have a pretty convincing business case for customers. With all three re-used boosters having been recovered after re-use, subsequent inspections/analysis should be enough to retire concerns over technical/reliability risks of (at least) single re-use?

Offline jpo234

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #213 on: 10/17/2017 03:14 PM »
Musk's Reusable Rockets Win U.S. Air Force General's Endorsement
Quote
It would be “absolutely foolish” not to begin using pre-flown rockets, which bring such significant savings that they’ll soon be commonplace for the entire industry, General John W. “Jay” Raymond said in an interview Monday at Bloomberg headquarters in New York.

Air Force biography of Gen. John W. “Jay” Raymond


« Last Edit: 10/17/2017 03:43 PM by jpo234 »
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Offline woods170

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #214 on: 10/18/2017 08:08 AM »
Musk's Reusable Rockets Win U.S. Air Force General's Endorsement
Quote
It would be “absolutely foolish” not to begin using pre-flown rockets, which bring such significant savings that they’ll soon be commonplace for the entire industry, General John W. “Jay” Raymond said in an interview Monday at Bloomberg headquarters in New York.

Air Force biography of Gen. John W. “Jay” Raymond



Strong endorsement of reuse, but of limited value to SpaceX right now given that their share of NSS launches is limited compared to ULA.

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #215 on: 10/18/2017 08:20 AM »
Strong endorsement of reuse, but of limited value to SpaceX right now given that their share of NSS launches is limited compared to ULA.

I think the value comes in reenforcing the view that re-use is becoming normal. SpaceX want to get to the point where customers don’t worry about whether their booster is new or re-used. Having NASA and the military talk about re-use in positive terms, and hopefully in NASA’s case soon using a flight proven booster, is telling the market that this is nothing to worry about.

Offline woods170

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #216 on: 10/18/2017 11:28 AM »
Strong endorsement of reuse, but of limited value to SpaceX right now given that their share of NSS launches is limited compared to ULA.

I think the value comes in reenforcing the view that re-use is becoming normal. SpaceX want to get to the point where customers don’t worry about whether their booster is new or re-used. Having NASA and the military talk about re-use in positive terms, and hopefully in NASA’s case soon using a flight proven booster, is telling the market that this is nothing to worry about.
That was not my point. The market is switching to reused boosters regardless of NASA and/or USAF endorsement. The likes of SES, Iridium and other comsat operators are taking care of that. At best endorsement, by NASA and/or USAF, will accelerate this process.
My point was that USAF potentially switching to flying on reused boosters is of limited direct value to SpaceX given that NSS launches are really only a very small part of their flight manifest.
« Last Edit: 10/18/2017 11:33 AM by woods170 »

Online envy887

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #217 on: 10/18/2017 04:19 PM »
Strong endorsement of reuse, but of limited value to SpaceX right now given that their share of NSS launches is limited compared to ULA.

I think the value comes in reenforcing the view that re-use is becoming normal. SpaceX want to get to the point where customers don’t worry about whether their booster is new or re-used. Having NASA and the military talk about re-use in positive terms, and hopefully in NASA’s case soon using a flight proven booster, is telling the market that this is nothing to worry about.
That was not my point. The market is switching to reused boosters regardless of NASA and/or USAF endorsement. The likes of SES, Iridium and other comsat operators are taking care of that. At best endorsement, by NASA and/or USAF, will accelerate this process.
My point was that USAF potentially switching to flying on reused boosters is of limited direct value to SpaceX given that NSS launches are really only a very small part of their flight manifest.

No direct gain now, but... SpaceX has, and will have for the foreseeable future, a limited supply of new boosters. If they can get DoD flying on used boosters, they have the future potential to take up a lot more launches.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SpaceX customers' views on reuse
« Reply #218 on: 10/18/2017 09:38 PM »
If you can get the acceptance of used as being just as good as new then SpaceX could then go to a set price for F9 regardless of whether the booster flown is new or used as long as the customer does not specify a new one. This is their current expressed pricing goal to occur as early as next year. So far the views released lately seem to support this view of used as being as good as a new one.
« Last Edit: 10/18/2017 09:39 PM by oldAtlas_Eguy »

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