Author Topic: When will F9/F9H be retired?  (Read 38846 times)

Online Semmel

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Re: When will F9/F9H be retired?
« Reply #100 on: 04/11/2017 09:12 PM »
If you've noticed, EM has been mentioning financial matters (like not going bankrupt or $1B for reusability development) quite a bit lately.  GS also mentioned 'hundreds of millions' in development costs.  What I think happened is that the AMOS failure and price tag for rebuild of LC-40 precipitated a 'chat' between GS and EM where a few lines were drawn (by GS).  EM is not chipping in a billion per year, so the business (it IS a business) needs to become viable. 

Lots of F9/FH launches, including getting the ConnX up and producing major revenue, is required for that business to pay for the next big thing which is ITS... there isn't money for ITS first.

Thats a quite well observed point. Thank you for the perspective. SpaceX is not yet close to emergency mode but the AMOS failure shifted the short term priorities around a lot. Unless they get donated a ton of money, SpaceX will not be able to fast-roll ITS.

Offline bad_astra

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Re: When will F9/F9H be retired?
« Reply #101 on: 08/02/2017 03:05 PM »
barring being forced out of the market by better competitors or some breakthrough propulsion technology, I could imagine evolved F9 variants being built well into the latter part of the century. Honda still makes SuperCubs. If Bezos succeeds (and Musk) and society has developed to the point that it is cheaper to build satellites in orbit, than launch them from earth, then there probably won't be much use for them anymore.
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Offline Jim

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Re: When will F9/F9H be retired?
« Reply #102 on: 08/02/2017 04:57 PM »
If you've noticed, EM has been mentioning financial matters (like not going bankrupt or $1B for reusability development) quite a bit lately.  GS also mentioned 'hundreds of millions' in development costs.  What I think happened is that the AMOS failure and price tag for rebuild of LC-40 precipitated a 'chat' between GS and EM where a few lines were drawn (by GS).  EM is not chipping in a billion per year, so the business (it IS a business) needs to become viable. 

Lots of F9/FH launches, including getting the ConnX up and producing major revenue, is required for that business to pay for the next big thing which is ITS... there isn't money for ITS first.

Thats a quite well observed point. Thank you for the perspective. SpaceX is not yet close to emergency mode but the AMOS failure shifted the short term priorities around a lot. Unless they get donated a ton of money, SpaceX will not be able to fast-roll ITS.

And so will the next one

Offline RyanC

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Re: When will F9/F9H be retired?
« Reply #103 on: 08/13/2017 12:29 PM »
I'm sorry, but ITS makes no sense as a satellite launcher.

Sure it does.

Put satellites into ITS in containers/fixtures to hold them steady during launch.

ITS sails into orbit and meets up with several space tugs and transfers the satellites to them.

It's how you use container ships/railroads/tractor trailers/26 foot straight trucks to deliver anywhere anytime in the US.

Offline Mader Levap

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Re: When will F9/F9H be retired?
« Reply #104 on: 08/15/2017 01:18 PM »
What does not make sense for me is saying "ITS will make all other rockets obsolete".

It is silly. As silly as saying "18-wheelers will make all other cars obsolete".
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Offline tdperk

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Re: When will F9/F9H be retired?
« Reply #105 on: 08/15/2017 01:38 PM »
What does not make sense for me is saying "ITS will make all other rockets obsolete".

It is silly. As silly as saying "18-wheelers will make all other cars obsolete".

As ICE engine vehicles made the others obsolete, the ITS may make non-refuel-to-refly launchers obsolete.

That is not to say the successful competitors with the ITS will have two-stages and be fueled by MethaLOx.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: When will F9/F9H be retired?
« Reply #106 on: 08/15/2017 04:37 PM »
This hearkens back to the point I have made many times about the difference between a bulk carrier and a custom carrier. A transfer truck is a bulk carrier where as a UPS delivery truck is a custom carrier. In the case for large constellations the "transfer truck" makes a great deal of sense. But for the large up to 7mt GEO sats the transfer truck does not make much sense unless there has been an infrastructure build up in LEO to process containerized sats (unpack, checkout, and mate to a reusable tug). While a fully reusable ITSy could cost as low as an F9 partial reusable it would be quite an overkill when used in the per sat custom launch scenario.

F9 is a custom carrier. Single large sats up to 6mt to GTO (F9/F9R). Single large sats >6mt to GTO (FH/FHR).

ITSy is a bulk carrier. 6.25X the payload capacity as a fully reusable over that of F9R (partial reusable). Five  6mt GTO or three 9mt GTO sats.

Their roles are very different. They are optimized very differently for very different types of payloads.

So the overlap between F9/FH and ITSy will exists for a significant amount of time until that LEO infrastructure build up occurs. Meanwhile those sats needing some other orbit not reachable by the tugs from those LEO centers would launch on specialized custom LV orbit serving (something similar to the F9) once F9 has been retired. This portion of the Market will never be large but may have grown to be as larger or larger than the current total sat market. While the bulk transport market will be many times larger and represent a much more steady state market. All of this makes the estimation of when F9/FH would be retired very blurred. ITSy would have to be launching very regularly while F9 rates start to drop significantly. Once they get to under 10 per year I would imagine that SpaceX would then stop selling flights. But that point would be after several years of ITSy in operation. With the ITSy development schedule being NET 6 years from now the retirement of F9 would not be expected until NET 10 years from now or 2027.
« Last Edit: 08/15/2017 05:43 PM by oldAtlas_Eguy »

Offline ZachF

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Re: When will F9/F9H be retired?
« Reply #107 on: 08/15/2017 04:38 PM »
What does not make sense for me is saying "ITS will make all other rockets obsolete".

It is silly. As silly as saying "18-wheelers will make all other cars obsolete".

Not really.

Full rapid re-usability changes the economics landscape completely. It's an order-of-magnitude (or greater) cost disruption.

Whether it can be accomplished, how hard it is to do, or how long it will take to achieve, are the questions here. If it is accomplished, then yes, all other rockets rapidly become obsolete.

Offline Jim

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Re: When will F9/F9H be retired?
« Reply #108 on: 08/15/2017 04:39 PM »
If it is accomplished, then yes, all other rockets rapidly become obsolete.

wrong.  There are still horse drawn buggies, biplanes, propeller driven aircraft, calculators, answering machines, etc
« Last Edit: 08/15/2017 04:40 PM by Jim »

Offline ZachF

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Re: When will F9/F9H be retired?
« Reply #109 on: 08/15/2017 04:48 PM »
If it is accomplished, then yes, all other rockets rapidly become obsolete.

wrong.  There are still horse drawn buggies, biplanes, propeller driven aircraft, calculators, answering machines, etc

::)

Show me a graph of the share of passenger miles for horse drawn carriages, vs cars and other personal transportation. Is Horse-drawn buggies' share even large enough to be seen without a microscope?

Whats the production of horse drawn carriages vs 150-200 years ago?

How about Biplanes vs. Commercial jet aircraft (passenger miles)?

The iPhone came out ten years ago, I'm sure there are still some people who use their wall-mounted corded-rotary dial phone too, but how many are sold and what's their market share? What's the total sales vs 30 years ago?

« Last Edit: 08/15/2017 04:48 PM by ZachF »

Offline Jim

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Re: When will F9/F9H be retired?
« Reply #110 on: 08/15/2017 04:55 PM »

Whether it can be accomplished, how hard it is to do, or how long it will take to achieve, are the questions here. If it is accomplished, then yes, all other rockets rapidly become obsolete.

Same nonsense as this:

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39688.msg1709987#msg1709987

You have a habit of making over reaching statements unsupported by fact.
« Last Edit: 08/15/2017 04:58 PM by Jim »

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: When will F9/F9H be retired?
« Reply #111 on: 08/15/2017 05:09 PM »
If it is accomplished, then yes, all other rockets rapidly become obsolete.

wrong.  There are still horse drawn buggies, biplanes, propeller driven aircraft, calculators, answering machines, etc
Yes Jim I agree. See the above post as to why I believe so also. Large expendable LVs have not obsoleted the small sat launchers. A large reusable LV will not obsolete small reusable launchers or even small expendable launchers. Just force them to be less expensive.

Offline rpapo

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Re: When will F9/F9H be retired?
« Reply #112 on: 08/15/2017 05:16 PM »
If it is accomplished, then yes, all other rockets rapidly become obsolete.

wrong.  There are still horse drawn buggies, biplanes, propeller driven aircraft, calculators, answering machines, etc
Yes Jim I agree. See the above post as to why I believe so also. Large expendable LVs have not obsoleted the small sat launchers. A large reusable LV will not obsolete small reusable launchers or even small expendable launchers. Just force them to be less expensive.
And just as much to the point, it is very unlikely that SpaceX will obsolete national space programs.  They have their own reasons for existence, which reasons do not require competitiveness.  So I suspect that in the very unlikely chance that every last commercial launch were to go to SpaceX, you would still see NASA, Europe, Russia, China, India and a variety of other, smaller players continue to exist.  They may even borrow a page or two from SpaceX's script and rewrite it better.

But discussing the fate of other rockets and rocketry programs isn't on topic here.  See the opening question.
« Last Edit: 08/15/2017 05:20 PM by rpapo »
An Apollo fanboy . . . fifty years ago.

Online docmordrid

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Re: When will F9/F9H be retired?
« Reply #113 on: 08/15/2017 05:40 PM »
If it is accomplished, then yes, all other rockets rapidly become obsolete.

wrong.  There are still horse drawn buggies, biplanes, propeller driven aircraft, calculators, answering machines, etc

/sigh

But they have been relegated to small, niche roles save for the calculator, which for 95%+  of people is now a phone/tablet app.
DM

Offline Jim

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Re: When will F9/F9H be retired?
« Reply #114 on: 08/15/2017 05:54 PM »
If it is accomplished, then yes, all other rockets rapidly become obsolete.

wrong.  There are still horse drawn buggies, biplanes, propeller driven aircraft, calculators, answering machines, etc

/sigh

But they have been relegated to small, niche roles save for the calculator, which for 95%+  of people is now a phone/tablet app.

/sigh  Does everything have to explicit?   

The point is that other rockets are not going to be obsolete

Propeller driven aircraft are not niche
« Last Edit: 08/15/2017 05:57 PM by Jim »

Offline llanitedave

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Re: When will F9/F9H be retired?
« Reply #115 on: 08/15/2017 06:27 PM »
If it is accomplished, then yes, all other rockets rapidly become obsolete.

wrong.  There are still horse drawn buggies, biplanes, propeller driven aircraft, calculators, answering machines, etc


Obsolescence doesn't mean nonexistence.
"I've just abducted an alien -- now what?"

Offline RoboGoofers

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Re: When will F9/F9H be retired?
« Reply #116 on: 08/15/2017 07:08 PM »
If it is accomplished, then yes, all other rockets rapidly become obsolete.

wrong.  There are still horse drawn buggies, biplanes, propeller driven aircraft, calculators, answering machines, etc
Obsolescence doesn't mean nonexistence.

yeah, 2010 computers are obsolete yet there are many still in use. They're used until they break and then replaced with modern equivalents because replacement parts are often more expensive than faster, smaller, more power efficient new parts. Some companies will pay exorbitant prices to keep the old hardware running, but they're not really operating in the same 'market' at that point.

When F9 becomes obsolete, that doesn't necessitate that the form/size is obsolete, but that: A) the market changes and it is less relevant in the new market (it might still have customers but likely in a smaller secondary/tertiary market), or B) it's superseded by a better, similar version and is discontinued.

I cut my grass with a scythe and I think it does some things better than modern tools, but i'm under no illusion that it's not obsolete.
« Last Edit: 08/15/2017 07:17 PM by RoboGoofers »

Offline AC in NC

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Re: When will F9/F9H be retired?
« Reply #117 on: 08/15/2017 08:37 PM »
If it is accomplished, then yes, all other rockets rapidly become obsolete.

wrong.  There are still horse drawn buggies, biplanes, propeller driven aircraft, calculators, answering machines, etc

/sigh

But they have been relegated to small, niche roles save for the calculator, which for 95%+  of people is now a phone/tablet app.

/sigh  Does everything have to explicit?   

The point is that other rockets are not going to be obsolete

Propeller driven aircraft are not niche

I think I actually agree with you but this argument (obsolete products still having uses or fans) for all other rockets not becoming [effectively] obsolete is not a very good one.

The question (in the hypothetical) is:  What market would they serve?

Offline Mader Levap

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Re: When will F9/F9H be retired?
« Reply #118 on: 08/15/2017 10:49 PM »
Full rapid re-usability changes the economics landscape completely. It's an order-of-magnitude (or greater) cost disruption.

I will remind you we are talking in context of ITS supposedly destroying all other rockets due to its sheer awesomeness.

So, nope. "Expendable rockets become obsolete" is not same thing as "ITS will make any other rocket obsolete".

Again, this kind of claim is very silly and out of touch with reality. ITS is cost-effective only for appropriate payload. People do not drive in 18-wheelers. 18-wheelers do not drive to every pops&mom grocery store. People generally have small (relatively) cars on their parking lots, not school buses. Etc, etc, etc.
Be successful.  Then tell the haters to (BLEEP) off. - deruch
...and if you have failure, tell it anyway.

Offline envy887

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Re: When will F9/F9H be retired?
« Reply #119 on: 08/15/2017 11:00 PM »
Full rapid re-usability changes the economics landscape completely. It's an order-of-magnitude (or greater) cost disruption.

I will remind you we are talking in context of ITS supposedly destroying all other rockets due to its sheer awesomeness.

So, nope. "Expendable rockets become obsolete" is not same thing as "ITS will make any other rocket obsolete".

Again, this kind of claim is very silly and out of touch with reality. ITS is cost-effective only for appropriate payload. People do not drive in 18-wheelers. 18-wheelers do not drive to every pops&mom grocery store. People generally have small (relatively) cars on their parking lots, not school buses. Etc, etc, etc.

We don't know how much ITS is going to cost to operate. We don't even know how much most current rockets cost to operate. There's no way to say definitively if it will be competitive or not, at this point.

But... if SpaceX hits their cost goals for ITS (a big if), it will be cheaper per launch than ANY other currently operational orbital rocket. The point isn't that it could obsolete every rocket that could ever exist, only that it will obsolete every currently operational rocket (and all the ones that are likely to be operational in the next 5-10 years).


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