Author Topic: F9 Block 5 Updates and Discussion  (Read 323309 times)

Offline meekGee

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Re: F9 Block 5 Updates and Discussion
« Reply #720 on: 05/10/2018 02:51 pm »
The 1700 figure spans many models, but yeah, probably won't have time to catch up even with a single model.

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Offline ZachF

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Re: F9 Block 5 Updates and Discussion
« Reply #721 on: 05/10/2018 02:51 pm »
I prefer, quoting Eric Berger 'The end of the beginning' for the Falcon program.

Yeah, both terms work. We're really in an odd, grey area of the F9 program.

And by "Odd, grey area" you mean "Salad Days" of the F9 program.  ;)
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Online litton4

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Re: F9 Block 5 Updates and Discussion
« Reply #722 on: 05/10/2018 06:23 pm »
I prefer, quoting Eric Berger 'The end of the beginning' for the Falcon program.

Yeah, both terms work. We're really in an odd, grey area of the F9 program.

...and he in turn, was quoting Winston Churchill.....
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Offline gongora

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Re: F9 Block 5 Updates and Discussion
« Reply #723 on: 05/10/2018 07:33 pm »
Tweets from Brendan Byrne:
Quote
Musk on 'Load and Go" - The issue has been overblow. We can load the prop then load the astronauts.

Musk: Load and go is not a safety issue for astronauts. Can do before astros load. But this is an overblown issue. #SpaceX #Falcon9 #Block5

(just putting this here for better visibility, but discussion of it is probably better in the Commercial Crew Discussion thread)
« Last Edit: 05/10/2018 07:34 pm by gongora »

Offline Norm38

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Re: F9 Block 5 Updates and Discussion
« Reply #724 on: 05/10/2018 08:04 pm »
So if they build 30-50 F9s and each F9 can fly 100 times, then they have 3000-5000 missions.  They have 3 pads, at best they'd launch once per week per pad, so ~150 per year tops, maybe.
So they'd have 20 years of operations out of this fleet, minimum?

Sounds like they should be able to shut down the line and shift to BFR once the fleet is built.

Offline abaddon

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Re: F9 Block 5 Updates and Discussion
« Reply #725 on: 05/10/2018 08:11 pm »
Elon said "up to 300 missions" for F9 B5.

Offline AncientU

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Re: F9 Block 5 Updates and Discussion
« Reply #726 on: 05/10/2018 08:14 pm »
Elon said "up to 300 missions" for F9 B5.

Which is not close to consistent with the 30-50 cores and 100 flights possible per core.  Something/someone is off by order of magnitude.
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Offline leetdan

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Re: F9 Block 5 Updates and Discussion
« Reply #727 on: 05/10/2018 08:16 pm »
Don't conflate "possible" with "planned".

Offline ZachF

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Re: F9 Block 5 Updates and Discussion
« Reply #728 on: 05/10/2018 08:16 pm »
Elon said "up to 300 missions" for F9 B5.

Which is not close to consistent with the 30-50 cores and 100 flights possible per core.  Something/someone is off by order of magnitude.

He said it depends on how many customers want a brand new core.

Also, they'll likely be retired by BFR before they can reach their full 100 launch lifespan IMHO.
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Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: F9 Block 5 Updates and Discussion
« Reply #729 on: 05/10/2018 08:17 pm »
Tweets from Brendan Byrne:
Quote
Musk on 'Load and Go" - The issue has been overblow. We can load the prop then load the astronauts.

Musk: Load and go is not a safety issue for astronauts. Can do before astros load. But this is an overblown issue. #SpaceX #Falcon9 #Block5

(just putting this here for better visibility, but discussion of it is probably better in the Commercial Crew Discussion thread)

That certainly simplifies the situation...
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Jakusb

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Re: F9 Block 5 Updates and Discussion
« Reply #730 on: 05/10/2018 08:19 pm »
Elon said "up to 300 missions" for F9 B5.

Yes, I am having a hard time combining that one with the 30-50 cores...
Sounds like massive overkill or still dozens of stages being expended...
How will they ever get close to even 50 per core?!

For now the 100 number seems purely theoretical and will never be attempted.
But we all know the world hanged rapidly, paradigms are shifting and BFR is looming...

Meanwhile competition with old-space seems way behind them...

How long ago did Russia joke about using a trampoline?

Offline abaddon

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Re: F9 Block 5 Updates and Discussion
« Reply #731 on: 05/10/2018 08:20 pm »
The 300 number might also be an estimate of contracted SpaceX missions, and not count self-funded ones (Starlink).
« Last Edit: 05/10/2018 08:20 pm by abaddon »

Offline cebri

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Re: F9 Block 5 Updates and Discussion
« Reply #732 on: 05/10/2018 08:21 pm »
Take 100 flights with a grain of salt. If each F9 B5 could fly up to 10 times it would be already a great achievement.  Currently the most a F9 core has flown is two times with 4-5 months needed for refurbishment.

Also, some parts may be certified to fly 100 times, but if you change 99% of the booster, is it really the same one?

Offline RedLineTrain

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Re: F9 Block 5 Updates and Discussion
« Reply #733 on: 05/10/2018 08:22 pm »
We would want to see the transcript of what Musk actually said.  The Twitter feed I was following said "300 or more."

https://twitter.com/EmreKelly/status/994648133840920578

Offline AncientU

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Re: F9 Block 5 Updates and Discussion
« Reply #734 on: 05/10/2018 08:29 pm »
The 300 number might also be an estimate of contracted SpaceX missions, and not count self-funded ones (Starlink).

300 is enough to get just half of the 12,000 satellite constellation launched.
With the 100 flights on the manifest, and a 4,425 satellite constellation to launch (220 flights @ 20sats/flight?), 300 flights aren't enough -- so no more bookings?

Somethings is seriously screwed up in these numbers.
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Offline ZachF

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Re: F9 Block 5 Updates and Discussion
« Reply #735 on: 05/10/2018 08:30 pm »
Elon said "up to 300 missions" for F9 B5.

Yes, I am having a hard time combining that one with the 30-50 cores...
Sounds like massive overkill or still dozens of stages being expended...
How will they ever get close to even 50 per core?!

For now the 100 number seems purely theoretical and will never be attempted.
But we all know the world hanged rapidly, paradigms are shifting and BFR is looming...

Meanwhile competition with old-space seems way behind them...

How long ago did Russia joke about using a trampoline?

Some customers are specifying brand new boosters, and I'm sure some FH center cores will go into the drink. it's not inconceivable that these two numbers add up to twenty-something boosters over the next 5 or so years.

BFR will probably be here before any boosters hit the century mark.
« Last Edit: 05/10/2018 08:31 pm by ZachF »
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Offline Kabloona

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Re: F9 Block 5 Updates and Discussion
« Reply #736 on: 05/10/2018 08:45 pm »

Take 100 flights with a grain of salt. If each F9 B5 could fly up to 10 times it would be already a great achievement.  Currently the most a F9 core has flown is two times with 4-5 months needed for refurbishment.

On that subject, Musk said he thinks 10 flights of one booster could happen next year:

Quote
Musk: The first #Falcon9 Block 5 to achieve 10 flights will probably happen next year. "I think that's really a key milestone," he says

https://twitter.com/EmreKelly/status/994653260547088384

That implies one booster accounting for about 1/4 to 1/3 of their manifest, depending on overall flight rate.
« Last Edit: 05/10/2018 08:47 pm by Kabloona »

Offline AncientU

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Re: F9 Block 5 Updates and Discussion
« Reply #737 on: 05/10/2018 09:05 pm »
The way to run up the flights on a booster is to repeatedly use it for Starlink launches -- flying it till exhaustion while only risking their own low cost satellites.  This could begin next year...
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Offline Comga

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Re: F9 Block 5 Updates and Discussion
« Reply #738 on: 05/10/2018 09:27 pm »
Worth noting it is the same loading they were doing pre-Amos 6. This time with redesigned COPV's it will not be so risky.

I don't know that the RP-1 load has even been considered risky, the temperature differentials are far more benign than the LOX load.

Given that the mass of a Dragon 2 with crew and payload is far less than the capability of an F9 Block 5 to LEO, could SpaceX forego the use of super-chilled propellant for such missions? Would that result in lower perceived or actual risks to the crew and mission?

The Full Thrust Merlin 1D was designed specifically to work with chilled propellants, along with all other pad and rocket systems. So it's pretty much a solid "no"

Not using densified propellant would negatively affect performance.

But please - we need to stop this idea that M1D's now only work with densified propellant. Whatever propellant remains as the landing burns starts is surely NOT super chilled or densified anymore. Just regular LOX and RP-1.

I asked the same question over in the CCtCap Discussion Thread but didn't get as good a response as Lars-J just gave. 
It was generally agreed that it would not be any safer as far as us outsider can intuit, but it would be one way to get around ASAP's aversion to boarding-before-fueling. 
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline matthewkantar

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Re: F9 Block 5 Updates and Discussion
« Reply #739 on: 05/10/2018 09:33 pm »
Lauren said, during the Bangabandhu-1 webcast, the new TPS on Falcon 9 is a type of felt, replacing the cork used previously.

Edited to add "during…webcast"
« Last Edit: 05/10/2018 09:36 pm by matthewkantar »

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