Falcon 9 Block 5 Updates and Discussion

[vaporcobra]

11 cores at the cape.

Intriguing. When was this presented? As of Feb 1st, I count 7 flight-proven cores: B1048, B1049, B1051, B1052, B1053, B1056, & B1059. Add B1046 if this talk was before IFA. For new cores, there are very few options unless SpaceX has managed several surprise shipments: unclear if B1058 (Demo-2) is already in FL, slight possibility that B1060 (GPS III SV03, presumed) has already shipped from McGregor.

Best case would thus be 10 (flightworthy) cores if this talk happened before Jan 19th, leaving 1-2 mystery boosters

Edit: Looks like it happened within the last few days, so there are two mystery boosters at the Cape! Safest bet is that B1058 and B1060 both arrived in FL very recently. Else he may be counting B1050 and half of B1055

[ugordan]

11 cores at the cape.

Intriguing. When was this presented?

As far as I can tell, between the Dragon IFA and Starlink launch.

[kenny008]

11 cores at the cape.

Intriguing. When was this presented? As of Feb 1st, I count 7 flight-proven cores: B1048, B1049, B1051, B1052, B1053, B1056, & B1059. Add B1046 if this talk was before IFA. For new cores, there are very few options unless SpaceX has managed several surprise shipments: unclear if B1058 (Demo-2) is already in FL, slight possibility that B1060 (GPS III SV03, presumed) has already shipped from McGregor.

Best case would thus be 10 (flightworthy) cores if this talk happened before Jan 19th, leaving 1-2 mystery boosters

His talk actually had pictures from the IFA.

[groundbound]

I hope this is not OT but a question has been bugging me for some time, and it is clearly about B5.

Where do they keep the cores between flights?

Obviously a few may be in the HIFs at the two pads. But if the number at the cape is truly a two digit number it would seem like a lot of them are somewhere else.

So where? LZ1? Roberts Rd?

[AndrewRG10]

11 cores at the cape.

Intriguing. When was this presented? As of Feb 1st, I count 7 flight-proven cores: B1048, B1049, B1051, B1052, B1053, B1056, & B1059. Add B1046 if this talk was before IFA. For new cores, there are very few options unless SpaceX has managed several surprise shipments: unclear if B1058 (Demo-2) is already in FL, slight possibility that B1060 (GPS III SV03, presumed) has already shipped from McGregor.

Best case would thus be 10 (flightworthy) cores if this talk happened before Jan 19th, leaving 1-2 mystery boosters

Edit: Looks like it happened within the last few days, so there are two mystery boosters at the Cape! Safest bet is that B1058 and B1060 both arrived in FL very recently. Else he may be counting B1050 and half of B1055

I would say there it's certain that B1058 is there. Counting B1048,B1049,B1051-1053,B1056,B1058,B1059 is only eight. Although I have suspicion B1060 and B1061 are there because two boosters were seen at McGregor and one was the GPS booster. I think B1050 is the mystery booster, no one seen it been mothballed and no one saw it leave the Cape. But it has been a long turnaround if they plan on re-flying it. However, if she is still flight worthy after new engines electronics and interstage, I'd be expecting her Return to Flight mission to be coming up March or April.

I just can't see there being a B1062 there. Either B1060/61 are for GPS and if CRS-20 is a new booster I suspect B1059 is for Saocom 1b. There just doesn't seem to be a need for another new booster in the first half of 2020.

[su27k]

11 cores at the cape.

Intriguing. When was this presented? As of Feb 1st, I count 7 flight-proven cores: B1048, B1049, B1051, B1052, B1053, B1056, & B1059. Add B1046 if this talk was before IFA. For new cores, there are very few options unless SpaceX has managed several surprise shipments: unclear if B1058 (Demo-2) is already in FL, slight possibility that B1060 (GPS III SV03, presumed) has already shipped from McGregor.

Best case would thus be 10 (flightworthy) cores if this talk happened before Jan 19th, leaving 1-2 mystery boosters

Edit: Looks like it happened within the last few days, so there are two mystery boosters at the Cape! Safest bet is that B1058 and B1060 both arrived in FL very recently. Else he may be counting B1050 and half of B1055

Just go by memory now that video is gone: He did mention the core for Demo-2 is already at the cape (also the capsule will arrive the week after next).

[Semmel]

11 cores at the cape.

Intriguing. When was this presented? As of Feb 1st, I count 7 flight-proven cores: B1048, B1049, B1051, B1052, B1053, B1056, & B1059. Add B1046 if this talk was before IFA. For new cores, there are very few options unless SpaceX has managed several surprise shipments: unclear if B1058 (Demo-2) is already in FL, slight possibility that B1060 (GPS III SV03, presumed) has already shipped from McGregor.

Best case would thus be 10 (flightworthy) cores if this talk happened before Jan 19th, leaving 1-2 mystery boosters

Edit: Looks like it happened within the last few days, so there are two mystery boosters at the Cape! Safest bet is that B1058 and B1060 both arrived in FL very recently. Else he may be counting B1050 and half of B1055

He said it in the context of the refurbishment team doing their thing and putting the flight ready booster in storage until it is used by the flight operation team. So it was definitely said in the context of 11 flight ready boosters.

From memory, I think he talked about the IFA in the past and the last Starlink launch in the future. So this talk must have happened between the IFA and the latest Starlink launch.

[wannamoonbase]

I’ve wanted to see poor old B1050 get another shot at things.   I assume(d) that it’s not worth the work as they have more cores than missions.

Still would be fun.

[Stefan.Christoff.19]

I’ve wanted to see poor old B1050 get another shot at things.   I assume(d) that it’s not worth the work as they have more cores than missions.

Still would be fun.

When I first read the thread I was also hoping that 1050 will get another lease on life, but it seems very unlikely. It flew on 12/05/2018. There would have been no better time to fly it if it was flight worthy than the Starlink 2 or 3 flights. Or even now on 4. I doubt other clients will want it for the first reflight. It would be awesome if it flies again, but I gave up waiting for it and greyed it out in my core schedule. So that would probably mean that 1061 and 1062 are at the Cape.
It somehow doesn't square though. Their flight assignments make it look like the only cores in rotation are 1048-49, 1051, 1056 and 1059 for NASA. Well what do I know, I'm glad to hear there are more cores than we figured.

[niwax]

I’ve wanted to see poor old B1050 get another shot at things.   I assume(d) that it’s not worth the work as they have more cores than missions.

Still would be fun.

When I first read the thread I was also hoping that 1050 will get another lease on life, but it seems very unlikely. It flew on 12/05/2018. There would have been no better time to fly it if it was flight worthy than the Starlink 2 or 3 flights. Or even now on 4. I doubt other clients will want it for the first reflight. It would be awesome if it flies again, but I gave up waiting for it and greyed it out in my core schedule. So that would probably mean that 1061 and 1062 are at the Cape.
It somehow doesn't square though. Their flight assignments make it look like the only cores in rotation are 1048-49, 1051, 1056 and 1059 for NASA. Well what do I know, I'm glad to hear there are more cores than we figured.

The grid fins might already have flown on a new core.

[AndrewRG10]

I’ve wanted to see poor old B1050 get another shot at things.   I assume(d) that it’s not worth the work as they have more cores than missions.

Still would be fun.

When I first read the thread I was also hoping that 1050 will get another lease on life, but it seems very unlikely. It flew on 12/05/2018. There would have been no better time to fly it if it was flight worthy than the Starlink 2 or 3 flights. Or even now on 4. I doubt other clients will want it for the first reflight. It would be awesome if it flies again, but I gave up waiting for it and greyed it out in my core schedule. So that would probably mean that 1061 and 1062 are at the Cape.
It somehow doesn't square though. Their flight assignments make it look like the only cores in rotation are 1048-49, 1051, 1056 and 1059 for NASA. Well what do I know, I'm glad to hear there are more cores than we figured.

The grid fins might already have flown on a new core.

I think it's certain they have. They weren't damaged and heck they may have been on DM-1 or something else. Hopefully not any FH centre core because then they're unlucky enough to have gone into the drink twice.

[LandingZone-1]

Where do they keep the cores between flights?

Besides the LC-39A and SLC-40 HIFs, they also store boosters in Hangars at CCAFS, such as Hangar X.

[pospa]

Where do they keep the cores between flights?

Besides the LC-39A and SLC-40 HIFs, they also store boosters in Hangars at CCAFS, such as Hangar X.

I believe SpX is using more buildings at CCAFS, like hangar E, M, maybee S, and also LZ Processing and Storage Hangar at LZ-1. Plenty of space for 11 boosters. See Raul's map here:

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1wvgFIPuOmI8da9EIB88tHo9vamo&hl=en_US&ll=28.498457529519268%2C-80.55457318057017&z=13

[Nilof]

Atlas 5 has 81 launches behind it, with 80 successes and 1 partial successes.

Falcon 9 has 80 launches behind it, with 78 successes and 1 partial success. In addition to that, Falcon heavy has 3 successful launches.


So the falcon family just caught up to the Atlas in number of launches? Pretty neat.

[AndrewRG10]

Atlas 5 has 81 launches behind it, with 80 successes and 1 partial successes.

Falcon 9 has 80 launches behind it, with 78 successes and 1 partial success. In addition to that, Falcon heavy has 3 successful launches.


So the falcon family just caught up to the Atlas in number of launches? Pretty neat.

Not yet, they only have 52 consecutive launches with no RUD event. They should catch Atlas by early 2021 or late this year depending on Starlink cadence. But they'll always have a launch failure on their shoulders, even if they can get a streak like Atlas.

[Nilof]

Atlas 5 has 81 launches behind it, with 80 successes and 1 partial successes.

Falcon 9 has 80 launches behind it, with 78 successes and 1 partial success. In addition to that, Falcon heavy has 3 successful launches.


So the falcon family just caught up to the Atlas in number of launches? Pretty neat.

Not yet, they only have 52 consecutive launches with no RUD event. They should catch Atlas by early 2021 or late this year depending on Starlink cadence. But they'll always have a launch failure on their shoulders, even if they can get a streak like Atlas.

Possibly, but it should hopefully shut up the "SpaceX's launch prices are not sustainable" crowd.

[Coastal Ron]

Atlas 5 has 81 launches behind it, with 80 successes and 1 partial successes.

Falcon 9 has 80 launches behind it, with 78 successes and 1 partial success. In addition to that, Falcon heavy has 3 successful launches.


So the falcon family just caught up to the Atlas in number of launches? Pretty neat.

Not yet, they only have 52 consecutive launches with no RUD event. They should catch Atlas by early 2021 or late this year depending on Starlink cadence. But they'll always have a launch failure on their shoulders, even if they can get a streak like Atlas.

Catching up, or matching the Atlas V launch record is a vanity metric - customers don't care. And customers are really the only people that matter in the launch business.

[meekGee]

Atlas 5 has 81 launches behind it, with 80 successes and 1 partial successes.

Falcon 9 has 80 launches behind it, with 78 successes and 1 partial success. In addition to that, Falcon heavy has 3 successful launches.


So the falcon family just caught up to the Atlas in number of launches? Pretty neat.

Not yet, they only have 52 consecutive launches with no RUD event. They should catch Atlas by early 2021 or late this year depending on Starlink cadence. But they'll always have a launch failure on their shoulders, even if they can get a streak like Atlas.

I don't think the chip is on *their* shoulders... SpaceX is no longer the company with something to prove.

[Robotbeat]

Atlas 5 has 81 launches behind it, with 80 successes and 1 partial successes.

Falcon 9 has 80 launches behind it, with 78 successes and 1 partial success. In addition to that, Falcon heavy has 3 successful launches.


So the falcon family just caught up to the Atlas in number of launches? Pretty neat.

Not yet, they only have 52 consecutive launches with no RUD event. They should catch Atlas by early 2021 or late this year depending on Starlink cadence. But they'll always have a launch failure on their shoulders, even if they can get a streak like Atlas.

Catching up, or matching the Atlas V launch record is a vanity metric - customers don't care. And customers are really the only people that matter in the launch business.

Also, it's not how statistics works. Atlas V has had a very close call a couple years ago with Cygnus and hasn't launched that many since then.

However, I do think customers care. Reliability is important. It matters that SpaceX is now within spitting distance of Atlas V.

[vanoord]

I would say there it's certain that B1058 is there. Counting B1048,B1049,B1051-1053,B1056,B1058,B1059 is only eight. Although I have suspicion B1060 and B1061 are there because two boosters were seen at McGregor and one was the GPS booster. I think B1050 is the mystery booster, no one seen it been mothballed and no one saw it leave the Cape. But it has been a long turnaround if they plan on re-flying it. However, if she is still flight worthy after new engines electronics and interstage, I'd be expecting her Return to Flight mission to be coming up March or April.

I just can't see there being a B1062 there. Either B1060/61 are for GPS and if CRS-20 is a new booster I suspect B1059 is for Saocom 1b. There just doesn't seem to be a need for another new booster in the first half of 2020.

Depends if they're talking Block 5 only...

Likely extant Block 5 cores (11):

B1048 - flown 4 times
B1049 - flown 4 times
B1050 - landed on water, unlikely to fly again
B1051 - flown 3 times
B1052 - FH side core, flown 2 times
B1053 - FH side core, flown 2 times
B1056 - flown 3 times
B1058 - not flown (apparently for DM1)
B1059 - flown 1 time (CRS-19)
B1060 - not flown
B1061 - not flown

That's 11 there, but there's no confirmation that B1060 or B1061 are at the Cape - although B1058 (DM1) is known to be there.

Possibly down to 9.

Of the earlier cores, B1023 and B1025 are the original FH side cores and may still exist.

So back up to 11.

There's some (unconfirmed) suggestion (L2) that B1050 may no longer exist.

That would bring it down to 8 if B1023 and B1025 are excluded. Or 10 if they're included.

To which you'd have to add B1060 to get to 11.

Then again, there are 7 other pre Block 5 cores that may or may not exist, albeit most of them are likely to have been scrapped - the only likely survivor is B1021 which was the first to fly twice and was apparently put aside for display.

So yes, there can easily be 11 cores at the Cape if pre-Block 5 cores are included in the count.

In short, there are:

- 5 flown and usable F9 Block 5
- 2 flown and usable FH boosters
- 1 flown and damaged F9 Block 5
- 1 unflown F9 Block 5 for DM1
- an unknown number of new F9s (at least two of which were photographed at McGregor for Veterans' Day)

Plus:
- up to 2 flown FH boosters (converted from F9s)
- anywhere between 1 and 7 pre-Block 5 F9s, most of which are likely to have been scrapped
- 1 F9 on display at Hawthorne