SpaceX Crewed Dragon Circumlunar Mission

[Jim]

The real beauty of this mission is that it is basically using the same things that SpaceX is planning to do in the near future so SpaceX is designing and building them right now. About the only exception to this would be the deep space communications system on the Dragon 2 capsule. Even this is along the same line, as it will need to build something like this for the Red Dragon mission.

But thinking along the lines of what SpaceX still needs to do for its stated objectives has given me a head scratching moment. SpaceX has announced and shown that it is working on the new Raptor engine. There is also information available that they are working on how to build the new composite propellant tanks for the ITS. It was also announced that the ITS would use gaseous methane/oxygen engines for attitude control. These attitude control thrusters would probably need to be bigger than the present Draco engines but probably smaller (but not necessarily) than the Super Draco engines. So the part that has my head itching has anybody heard anything related to the development of these new engines?

Now for the speculation part related to this thread. If just about everything that SpaceX works on is related on how to get to Mars this would lean against SpaceX using any resources toward developing a Raptor S2 for the Falcon 9. It would also lean against SpaceX developing a breakaway kit using a super Draco engine to fit in the trunk of the Dragon system to be used as a service module. All of which would be within the ability of SpaceX to produce but as they have no missions/customers that need it would be most likely a waste of resources. Now developing the above mentioned new gaseous methane/oxygen engines for attitude control is definitely on their list of things to do but is probably on their due later as opposed to do earlier list. If on the other hand, they were to move this to the do earlier list could they also possibly be willing to expend the extra resources for a breakaway service module kit?

This would allow them to accomplish something else on there to do list earlier and at the same time possibly get more experience with it. For a relatively low cost this would put another tool in their toolkit that others could conceivably use (and obviously be willing to pay SpaceX) for possible BLEO missions.

No, this could be the furtherest away from what they are doing.

the ITS uses gaseous methane/oxygen because it is readily available.  a spacecraft using it would need high pressure bottles of it.  It is not a simple mod.
It would not be Spacex low cost.

[Roy_H]

So who wants to bet the moon mission will use a second stage with a methane fed raptor engine?

Well, I'm certainly not ready to bet on it, but I think that is the best option for BLEO operations. It would be awesome if SpaceX was that far on in its development but I think it is still years away. I believe they will need this to do lunar orbit or landing/return.

[punder]

I'll watch the mission, but this sort of thing benefits a very small number of people, and only for a short time.

Yes. Sort of like Lindbergh's flight across the Atlantic. Okay, a small bunch of investors got some cash out of it. Otherwise, the flight had no discernible affect on the advancement of aviation.

(Sorry, catching up, many pages behind. But this attitude just really puzzles me.)

If Lindbergh's flight occurred today, decades after the first trans-Atlantic passenger service started, what effect do you think it would have on aviation?

If transatlantic passenger services carried 27 passengers across the ocean over the course of four years, and then carried absolutely zero for the next 50 years, I think it would have a HUGE effect.

[Star One]

SpaceX plans to send tourists around the Moon in 2018. Here's why that may not happen

Which brings me back to the premise of this article: Based solely on publicly available facts, it seems unlikely this mission will happen in 2018.

Objectively speaking, SpaceX has revolutionized the launch industry. They have made incredible leaps forward in technology while re-energizing the world about spaceflight in a way that NASA has, in some ways, failed to do. They broke the monopoly on launching classified U.S. payloads. They may one day send humans to Mars.

For a space company that has only been around for 15 years, that's extraordinarily impressive. But in terms of media relations and gut-checking ambitious timelines, there's always room for improvement.

http://www.planetary.org/blogs/jason-davis/2017/20170302-spacex-tourists-2018.html

See what you think of the above sceptical on timeline article.

[JamesH65]

SpaceX plans to send tourists around the Moon in 2018. Here's why that may not happen

Which brings me back to the premise of this article: Based solely on publicly available facts, it seems unlikely this mission will happen in 2018.

Objectively speaking, SpaceX has revolutionized the launch industry. They have made incredible leaps forward in technology while re-energizing the world about spaceflight in a way that NASA has, in some ways, failed to do. They broke the monopoly on launching classified U.S. payloads. They may one day send humans to Mars.

For a space company that has only been around for 15 years, that's extraordinarily impressive. But in terms of media relations and gut-checking ambitious timelines, there's always room for improvement.

http://www.planetary.org/blogs/jason-davis/2017/20170302-spacex-tourists-2018.html

See what you think of the above sceptical on timeline article.

Hmm. Two things come to mind about that article - the first is sour grapes that he didn't get a reply to his questions.

The second is to do with SpaceX delays. Yes, they have delays, that is entirely to be expected. But, I reckon they use a form of agile development. The thing about agile development, is that as development proceeds you become better as estimating how long things will take. So I would expect them to be getting better at predicting timescales. They have now been doing this for 15 years. They started as complete beginners, they are now leading the world. I fully expect them to get a LOT better with their predictions, simply because they are getting better at everything. Of course, they will still have delays, but their predictions will be more accurate.

[Star One]

SpaceX plans to send tourists around the Moon in 2018. Here's why that may not happen

Which brings me back to the premise of this article: Based solely on publicly available facts, it seems unlikely this mission will happen in 2018.

Objectively speaking, SpaceX has revolutionized the launch industry. They have made incredible leaps forward in technology while re-energizing the world about spaceflight in a way that NASA has, in some ways, failed to do. They broke the monopoly on launching classified U.S. payloads. They may one day send humans to Mars.

For a space company that has only been around for 15 years, that's extraordinarily impressive. But in terms of media relations and gut-checking ambitious timelines, there's always room for improvement.

http://www.planetary.org/blogs/jason-davis/2017/20170302-spacex-tourists-2018.html

See what you think of the above sceptical on timeline article.

Hmm. Two things come to mind about that article - the first is sour grapes that he didn't get a reply to his questions.

The second is to do with SpaceX delays. Yes, they have delays, that is entirely to be expected. But, I reckon they use a form of agile development. The thing about agile development, is that as development proceeds you become better as estimating how long things will take. So I would expect them to be getting better at predicting timescales. They have now been doing this for 15 years. They started as complete beginners, they are now leading the world. I fully expect them to get a LOT better with their predictions, simply because they are getting better at everything. Of course, they will still have delays, but their predictions will be more accurate.

I really don't think him not getting a reply to his questions being brought into his article was a relevant thing for him to bring up, in fact I think it undermined his argument.

[yokem55]

SpaceX plans to send tourists around the Moon in 2018. Here's why that may not happen

Which brings me back to the premise of this article: Based solely on publicly available facts, it seems unlikely this mission will happen in 2018.

Objectively speaking, SpaceX has revolutionized the launch industry. They have made incredible leaps forward in technology while re-energizing the world about spaceflight in a way that NASA has, in some ways, failed to do. They broke the monopoly on launching classified U.S. payloads. They may one day send humans to Mars.

For a space company that has only been around for 15 years, that's extraordinarily impressive. But in terms of media relations and gut-checking ambitious timelines, there's always room for improvement.

http://www.planetary.org/blogs/jason-davis/2017/20170302-spacex-tourists-2018.html

See what you think of the above sceptical on timeline article.

Hmm. Two things come to mind about that article - the first is sour grapes that he didn't get a reply to his questions.

The second is to do with SpaceX delays. Yes, they have delays, that is entirely to be expected. But, I reckon they use a form of agile development. The thing about agile development, is that as development proceeds you become better as estimating how long things will take. So I would expect them to be getting better at predicting timescales. They have now been doing this for 15 years. They started as complete beginners, they are now leading the world. I fully expect them to get a LOT better with their predictions, simply because they are getting better at everything. Of course, they will still have delays, but their predictions will be more accurate.

So much of their schedule for this and crew in general is dependent on getting LC-40 going again. They won't be able to get 39a ready for heavy until 40 can support launches again. They can't get the crew access arm installed on the FSS, again until 40 is launching vehicles again. And they can't just put their manifest on hold at 39 to make those changes either. So, as long as the schedule for getting 40 up and running again holds for summertime, they will be okay.

But inevitably they will have delays at 40 as they have never restored a pad and its GSE from a big accident before, and thus any estimates as to when it will be ready are at best guesses. Once the new TEL and launch mount are in place again, better estimates can be made. Remember it took ~2 years to get 39a ready and that started with a pad with decent infrastructure in place already. The TEL there first went up about a year ago, and still it wasn't ready until last month.

[manoweb]

They won't be able to get 39a ready for heavy until 40 can support launches again.

But why do you say this?

[Jim]

They won't be able to get 39a ready for heavy until 40 can support launches again.

But why do you say this?

Because it is what is going to happen

[ugordan]

What Jim is trying to say is: SpaceX themselves said no FH from 39A before 40 is ready so FH inaugural campaign does not hog the pad while a crowded F9 manifest is waiting to launch . Least of all, 39A is not actually ready for FH yet.

[old_sellsword]

They won't be able to get 39a ready for heavy until 40 can support launches again.

But why do you say this?

How can they install the GSE on the pad deck while still launching? 39A will have to be out of action for quite a bit while they prep it for FH.

[manoweb]

Hi, so are you saying there has been a SpaceX announcement about not launching Falcon Heavy before the old pad is ready?

[old_sellsword]

Hi, so are you saying there has been a SpaceX announcement about not launching Falcon Heavy before the old pad is ready?

Yes, almost those exact words.

[Space Ghost 1962]

  A dozen posts to communicate the obvious ... and still no concrete belief that its ... understood.

[manoweb]

A dozen posts to communicate the obvious ... and still no concrete belief that its ... understood.

Are you referring to my question for a source of such claim?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjXYSJF-7Cs?t=6m56s

Thanks (unfortunately for whatever reason the link you gave ignores the time index; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjXYSJF-7Cs?t=416 this seem to work better but I don't know what's going on)

[Star One]

Look at this article & do these suggestions look familiar to this thread?

http://mashable.com/2017/03/05/spacex-moon-trip-elon-musk-passengers/

[Space Ghost 1962]

A dozen posts to communicate the obvious ... and still no concrete belief that its ... understood.

Are you referring to my question for a source of such claim?

No insult meant. Slightly despairing lament, as this has been answered on this board practically weekly for months. I think I answered it myself 2 months ago. And SX has made related comments. There are reasons they won't directly answer this.

add:
Found it - 12 days ago:
SpaceX Falcon Heavy Discussion (Thread 5)

...
You get 40 working again so launch operations shift back to there, freeing up all of 39A.

Then you have to spend time working out assembly/integration of FH, which likely involves parallel integration of three cores seperately, sequencing fixtures and facility to accomplish. Then you'll have to practice mate/demate of the three cores with unique fixtures, then be able to handle US integration with the core and finally payload.

This will compete with other uses of the pad (CC, CRS), where shifting things in/out/elsewhere will slow down operations for a while.
...

[Robotbeat]

So who wants to bet the moon mission will use a second stage with a methane fed raptor engine?

I'll take your bet! What are you offering? Steak dinner? Beverage of choice $10 or less?

(By the way, y'all are taking the wrong approach, here. Instead of trying to disprove him, you should be trying to score a free steak dinner!)

[Jcc]

SpaceX plans to send tourists around the Moon in 2018. Here's why that may not happen

Which brings me back to the premise of this article: Based solely on publicly available facts, it seems unlikely this mission will happen in 2018.

Objectively speaking, SpaceX has revolutionized the launch industry. They have made incredible leaps forward in technology while re-energizing the world about spaceflight in a way that NASA has, in some ways, failed to do. They broke the monopoly on launching classified U.S. payloads. They may one day send humans to Mars.

For a space company that has only been around for 15 years, that's extraordinarily impressive. But in terms of media relations and gut-checking ambitious timelines, there's always room for improvement.

http://www.planetary.org/blogs/jason-davis/2017/20170302-spacex-tourists-2018.html

See what you think of the above sceptical on timeline article.

The good thing about the moon mission, from a skeptical perspective, is that if it doesn't launch by late 2018, it can launch in early 2019. Unlike Red Dragon, which has to wait until 2020.

[Kenp51d]

My money is on 2019. Schedules are prone to slip in the rocket business. And there are significant hurdels yet to be dealt with. With some good luck they could make 2018.
Just watch and see how this plays out.

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