SpaceX Crewed Dragon Circumlunar Mission

[meekGee]

However, putting humans on FH and Dragon 2 within the next 18 months for a lunar mission is crazy risky. So much so that it won't actually happen.

So let's put the 2018 date aside. Are you saying that if Dragon flies crew twice to the ISS successfully and FH flies twice successfully, the lunar mission still can't happen?

Clearly, there would be a much better chance of mission success by the time that 4 test missions had flown.

However, my feeling is that in the time it would take to mount those missions, the desire to simply fly tourists around the Moon would transmogrify into something else, perhaps a serious effort to pursue LEO space tourism.

And what is a "serious effort to pursue LEO space tourism." - visits to the ISS or a different station?   How is one more serious than the other?

Failure is always an option. You don't have to play.

[MATTBLAK]

However, putting humans on FH and Dragon 2 within the next 18 months for a lunar mission is crazy risky. So much so that it won't actually happen.

So let's put the 2018 date aside. Are you saying that if Dragon flies crew twice to the ISS successfully and FH flies twice successfully, the lunar mission still can't happen?

Clearly, there would be a much better chance of mission success by the time that 4 test missions had flown.

However, my feeling is that in the time it would take to mount those missions, the desire to simply fly tourists around the Moon would transmogrify into something else, perhaps a serious effort to pursue LEO space tourism.

A combination of design flaw and crew error caused that accident. Design changes and training should prevent that type of accident from happening again. The flights of Spaceship 1 years ago showed some control issues for the design that were corrected for Spaceship 2. Going foward; I hope that the hybrid propulsion system doesn't cause errors - in the early days, there were of course two people killed on the ground in it's early testing phases. There has been some risk and there will continue to be risk, and some of that risk has been retired. Only operational maturity will iron out most of the 'bugs'.

[Robotbeat]

By the way, multiple people already died during SpaceShipTwo's development and testing, and the computer any hasn't folded.

People die climbing Everest. Or flying general aviation aircraft, but Cessna hasn't gone out of business.

People gonna die. Life will move on.

[Danderman]

And what is a "serious effort to pursue LEO space tourism." - visits to the ISS or a different station?   How is one more serious than the other?

Say, this "business" thing must be kind of mysterious to you.

Anyway, SpaceX does not have a serious focus on space tourism at the moment, what with the whole "going to Mars" effort dominating things. But, Elon may stumble upon the approach of actively seeking customers for Dragon 2 to fly in orbit, either in partnership with a tourism company, or using SpaceX itself to find the customers. I would suspect that there would be a lot of money in flying 5 or so tourists at a time.

My feeling is that Elon will stumble upon that before there is a tourism mission around the Moon.

[meekGee]

And what is a "serious effort to pursue LEO space tourism." - visits to the ISS or a different station?   How is one more serious than the other?

Say, this "business" thing must be kind of mysterious to you.

Anyway, SpaceX does not have a serious focus on space tourism at the moment, what with the whole "going to Mars" effort dominating things. But, Elon may stumble upon the approach of actively seeking customers for Dragon 2 to fly in orbit, either in partnership with a tourism company, or using SpaceX itself to find the customers. I would suspect that there would be a lot of money in flying 5 or so tourists at a time.

My feeling is that Elon will stumble upon that before there is a tourism mission around the Moon.

Oh. I see. You think round-the-moon is a less worthy ticket than LEO.  Business wise. 

Tell that to the people who bought the tickets, it is not yet too late!

I'd hate for SpaceX to stumble onto any other such mistakes.

[oiorionsbelt]

As an avid/daily reader of the SpaceX threads on this site for many years this thread has me baffled, dismayed and slightly depressed.
 The Debbie Downer carpbois are making no sense to me at all.

[su27k]

And what is a "serious effort to pursue LEO space tourism." - visits to the ISS or a different station?   How is one more serious than the other?

Say, this "business" thing must be kind of mysterious to you.

Anyway, SpaceX does not have a serious focus on space tourism at the moment, what with the whole "going to Mars" effort dominating things. But, Elon may stumble upon the approach of actively seeking customers for Dragon 2 to fly in orbit, either in partnership with a tourism company, or using SpaceX itself to find the customers. I would suspect that there would be a lot of money in flying 5 or so tourists at a time.

My feeling is that Elon will stumble upon that before there is a tourism mission around the Moon.

Seems to me the lack of focus on space tourism has more to do with the lack of a destination than the whole "going to Mars" thing. Would people really pay $20M+ to be cramped with 4 others in a Dragon and orbit the Earth a few times?

[QuantumG]

There's a proven destination, the ISS. The problem is that NASA doesn't want them there, and SpaceX doesn't want to upset their customer. Also, Elon isn't particularly fond of the whole "tourism" thing, and doesn't see this flight as having anything to do with tourism.

[Oli]

Seems to me the lack of focus on space tourism has more to do with the lack of a destination than the whole "going to Mars" thing. Would people really pay $20M+ to be cramped with 4 others in a Dragon and orbit the Earth a few times?

Will people pay $5bn to emigrate to Mars? LEO or lunar tourism will happen a long time before Mars colonization, simply because it's going to be much much cheaper. If you fly tourists to LEO every week or so the cost of an in-space module isn't that big of a factor anymore by the way.

[Star One]

I've been sick and out-of-the-loop the last couple of days, but reading this made me a bit depressed.

So I went back and started reading the thread from the beginning.

Looks like I'm not the only one, but pretty darned close.

The more I see of this sort of thing the more disenfranchised I feel about where spaceflight is actually heading versus where I'd like it to be heading.

Sure, I'll watch the mission carefully, and even be excited doing so (I'm a techno-geek), but this sort of thing - and SpaceX's Mars plans in general - are not where I'd like us to be going in spaceflight, especially human spaceflight.

In a way, I completely agree, and then in another way, disagree....

If there was no context to this, and all you'd be telling me is about a company that built the minimal infrastructure required to fly around the moon, for tourism purposes, I'd be with you - puke. Neil Armstrong, for this?!

But there is context.  This is a company focused on the real thing - beyond exploration even - actually forming a spacefaring civilization. Sacred words, pretty much, straight out of childhood's sci-fi. 

I don't like their Mars plans either.  They're focued on colinization  which is folly and about the fifteenth major step in a human Mars program.  We're on about step three.

Nail on head. These plans seem to be the ultimate example of putting the cart before the horse as they say.

[guckyfan]

Nail on head. These plans seem to be the ultimate example of putting the cart before the horse as they say.

Building a transport architecture that would allow colonization will vastly speed up all intermediate steps.

Including going to the moon, to be even remotely on topic.

[Star One]

Nail on head. These plans seem to be the ultimate example of putting the cart before the horse as they say.

Building a transport architecture that would allow colonization will vastly speed up all intermediate steps.

Including going to the moon, to be even remotely on topic.

Going to Mars on the scale Space X proposes has always seemed a case of trying to run before you can even walk. Concentrating on the Moon allows us to move from crawling as we are doing now to walking. That's why I've always favoured the Moon first approach to BEO.

[AncientU]

Nail on head. These plans seem to be the ultimate example of putting the cart before the horse as they say.

Building a transport architecture that would allow colonization will vastly speed up all intermediate steps.

Including going to the moon, to be even remotely on topic.

Going to Mars on the scale Space X proposes has always seemed a case of trying to run before you can even walk. Concentrating on the Moon allows us to move from crawling as we are doing now to walking. That's why I've always favoured the Moon first approach to BEO.

...which is what they are doing.
Walking.

[Star One]

Nail on head. These plans seem to be the ultimate example of putting the cart before the horse as they say.

Building a transport architecture that would allow colonization will vastly speed up all intermediate steps.

Including going to the moon, to be even remotely on topic.

Going to Mars on the scale Space X proposes has always seemed a case of trying to run before you can even walk. Concentrating on the Moon allows us to move from crawling as we are doing now to walking. That's why I've always favoured the Moon first approach to BEO.

...which is what they are doing.
Walking.

Bezos is more the one aiming to do the walking to the Moon.

[AncientU]

He's still not got an orbital rocket, so a bit behind in the race. 
(Full confidence that he will get there though.)

[rsdavis9]

Nail on head. These plans seem to be the ultimate example of putting the cart before the horse as they say.

Building a transport architecture that would allow colonization will vastly speed up all intermediate steps.

Including going to the moon, to be even remotely on topic.

Going to Mars on the scale Space X proposes has always seemed a case of trying to run before you can even walk. Concentrating on the Moon allows us to move from crawling as we are doing now to walking. That's why I've always favoured the Moon first approach to BEO.

I think everyone misses that development of new vehicles is where the cost is. That's why musk wants to develop something big enough and with enough capabilities to eventually go to mars. Sure in between this vehicle will be great for all of the lesser targets. How is ITS to big for the moon? LEO? GEO? etc.

[Nathan]

Musk mentioned that he would be willing to send NASA astronauts ahead of the tourists. That made me think- what if the tourists are Russian or Chinese? Is this going to be an embarrassment for NASA and the US?

[AncientU]

Musk mentioned that he would be willing to send NASA astronauts ahead of the tourists. That made me think- what if the tourists are Russian or Chinese? Is this going to be an embarrassment for NASA and the US?

More like an embarrassment to Russia or China.
Won't happen.

[guckyfan]

When Elon Musk offered that NASA would have first call if they want to do the loop around the moon in Dragon, my first thought was this is adding insult to injury. The injury being that SpaceX goes first, the insult offering the seats to NASA.

Am I the only one who thought this?

Edit: I do not think SpaceX should have refrained from preparing and announcing the mission. It is something NASA will have to live with.

[Kabloona]

When Elon Musk offered that NASA would have first call if they want to do the loop around the moon in Dragon, my first thought was this is adding insult to injury. The injury being that SpaceX goes first, the insult offering the seats to NASA.

Am I the only one who thought this?

Edit: I do not think SpaceX should have refrained from preparing and announcing the mission. It is something NASA will have to live with.

Seems to me Elon is trying to soften the blow to NASA pride by giving them first shot at the mission. There's no advantage to insulting your main customer. Elon knows this is going to look bad for NASA, so he's giving them the courtesy of at least letting their astros be the ones to take the glory.

So I take the offer as being an attempt to placate NASA to the degree possible under the circumstances, not insult them further. I imagine pretty much any NASA astro would jump at the opportunity, if permitted.

If you're a NASA astro, the real insult is that some rich guy/gal with no aerospace training got to go to the moon, instead of you or one of your astro buddies, because NASA management refused to pay a ridiculously low price (relative to an Apollo or SLS mission) for your ride.