SpaceX Crewed Dragon Circumlunar Mission

[deruch]

Name some missions/payloads that exist today that cannot be done by Falcon Heavy or Falcon 9, and can be done by BFR.

At IAC 2017, Elon spoke specifically about BFR cannibalizing their other products.  i.e. They are intentionally designing it so that it can fulfill all missions that are currently being served by F9, FH, and Dragon etc.  You seem to see this as a drawback while those who are designing it see it as a hallmark of success.  Maybe you aren't understanding why it's a good thing?

We can build a system that cannibalizes our own products, makes our own products redundant, then all the resources we use for Falcon Heavy and Dragon can be applied to one system

I'm assuming your original question about the existence of payloads/missions was excluding SpaceX's own plans for Mars missions?  Because that's the whole point.  They want to build a system that satisfies their needs and those for every other mission currently on their books.  It isn't about enabling something new for other people.

[Jim]

Okay. But my basic claim was something different - entrepreneurs who give ambitions schedules they fail to meet, or cancel projects, are not doing a good favor to the society.

That is reality in any field.  Welcome to life.  Be ready to be disappointed by many people, famous and obscure.

[speedevil]

SpaceX sold tickets for a circumlunar flight (Oh, hi! There's the topic!). Probably a couple hundred million dollars worth of tickets. They have a viable means to complete that mission.

From a transcript of Elons post-launch press conference I did at https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43154.msg1784964#msg1784964

Falcon Heavy opens up a new class of payload. It can launch more than twice as much payload as any other rocket in the world, so it's kind of up to customers what they might want to launch. It can launch things direct to Pluto and beyond with no need for a gravity assist or anything. Launch giant satellites, it can do anything you want. You could send people back to the moon with a bunch of Falcon Heavy and an orbital refilling.  Two or three falcon heavies would equal the payload of a Saturn Five.

This could be either read as  launching a payload, and then filling it from another payload, or refuelling FH upper stage.
Either of which says it clearly can do it.
He immediately goes on to say that you shouldn't do this, and BFR'd be much better.

[vt_hokie]

So, as someone who maybe hasn't been following developments as closely as many of the folks here, I kind of felt like Elon Musk dropped a bomb when he said they were no longer looking at man-rating Falcon Heavy and focusing instead on BFR.  The negative/cynical interpretation is, hey, we've finally got this great capability that could enable exciting things, but we're not going to do much with it because we're shifting focus to this pie in the sky heavy lift vehicle with no commercial demand for it and a predicted development timeline that history suggests is far too ambitious and unrealistic. 

Please tell me that I'm being too pessimistic!

[rockets4life97]

So, as someone who maybe hasn't been following developments as closely as many of the folks here, I kind of felt like Elon Musk dropped a bomb when he said they were no longer looking at man-rating Falcon Heavy and focusing instead on BFR.  The negative/cynical interpretation is, hey, we've finally got this great capability that could enable exciting things, but we're not going to do much with it because we're shifting focus to this pie in the sky heavy lift vehicle with no commercial demand for it and a predicted development timeline that history suggests is far too ambitious and unrealistic. 

Please tell me that I'm being too pessimistic!

I think Elon is saying they won't do the development (e.g. man-rating) on their own dime. If NASA or someone else wants to pay for the development, SpaceX might consider it. But the price has to be right, I'm sure.

[butters]

Gray Dragon would have been awesome to follow for us fans, but it would also have been a rather frivolous mission profile at the limits of the FH/D2 architecture. A transportation system which can do no better than cislunar free return is not particularly useful. They'd need another propulsion element to get in and out of lunar orbit. That would require a second launch with earth orbit rendezvous, just to be able to get Dragon to a stable cislunar orbit where it could potentially rendezvous with a lander or station.

FH is in this weird no-man's land where it's powerful enough that only the reusability penalty brings it into play for the heaviest satellites, but it's not quite powerful enough in expendable mode to be a single-launch lunar orbit shuttle system. It only makes sense in a lunar architecture without Dragon, delivering one-way cargo to a cislunar gateway station for example. Lunar CRS is worth pursuing. Crewed Dragon 2 on FH is not.

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

I think Elon was expressing the difference involved with attaining a Human-Rating with NASA and what is needed for a FAA Commercial License for an "Experimental" launch with humans. There is a wide gulf between the costs for the two. Meaning no NASA human launches on FH without NASA fully paying for it. But that is not likely to happen because it ties up all those SpaceX engineering assets for a couple of years on a almost pure paperwork review exercise that would be more better spent designing BFR/BFS with a vehicle capable of taking humans at about the same point in time as having a NASA certified HRated FH.

So there has yet to be a specific statement that Lunar Dragon is canceled and funds refunded to the buyers.

[chipguy]

So, as someone who maybe hasn't been following developments as closely as many of the folks here, I kind of felt like Elon Musk dropped a bomb when he said they were no longer looking at man-rating Falcon Heavy and focusing instead on BFR.  The negative/cynical interpretation is, hey, we've finally got this great capability that could enable exciting things, but we're not going to do much with it because we're shifting focus to this pie in the sky heavy lift vehicle with no commercial demand for it and a predicted development timeline that history suggests is far too ambitious and unrealistic. 

Please tell me that I'm being too pessimistic!

I'd take the same set of facts in a positive fashion. SpaceX recognises that these frivolous little prestige
projects take resources disproportionate to their importance and diverts away from putting "all their wood
behind one arrow" that is BFR development. Worse yet, a mishap on such a project has major impact on
all of what SpaceX wants to achieve and would taint the company for years.

[Ludus]

So, as someone who maybe hasn't been following developments as closely as many of the folks here, I kind of felt like Elon Musk dropped a bomb when he said they were no longer looking at man-rating Falcon Heavy and focusing instead on BFR.  The negative/cynical interpretation is, hey, we've finally got this great capability that could enable exciting things, but we're not going to do much with it because we're shifting focus to this pie in the sky heavy lift vehicle with no commercial demand for it and a predicted development timeline that history suggests is far too ambitious and unrealistic. 

Please tell me that I'm being too pessimistic!

You’re being too pessimistic.
SpaceX is antifragile. They flexibly pivot to better alternatives all the time. Often these pivots are criticized as failures to meet plans. The delays in FH were in part just caused by making so much progress so fast in achieving rapid reusability with F9 that FH had to be redesigned around better and better performance numbers.

The FH we saw fly finally was vastly better for having been delayed and still within promised prices.

BFR/BFS is another pivot to much better alternatives. Block 5 hits the rapid reusability goals so well SpaceX can leverage this capacity to fly much more often while building many fewer rockets. Rather than this creating a crisis and threats of mass layoffs it’s the opportunity to shift resources to building BFR/BFS while supporting the company launching F9/FH.

Red Dragon was the best they could do to at least put something on Mars in the absence of any real MCT. It was always just settling for something practical, not really an objective in itself. The pivot to actually building BFR made it an unnecessary distraction.

The FH D2 lunar flyby was low hanging fruit in the absence of any more important focus. With really revolutionary spacecraft now coming in few years that can do that much better, why bother. Doing the lunar flyby with BFS a few years later is like launching FH late but with all three cores reusable, better and cheaper in every way than originally planned.

[Klebiano]

Elon said that SpaceX team is thinking if they gonna use Falcon Heavy or BFR for the mission

[Space Ghost 1962]

I think Elon was expressing the difference involved with attaining a Human-Rating with NASA and what is needed for a FAA Commercial License for an "Experimental" launch with humans. There is a wide gulf between the costs for the two. Meaning no NASA human launches on FH without NASA fully paying for it. But that is not likely to happen because it ties up all those SpaceX engineering assets for a couple of years on a almost pure paperwork review exercise that would be more better spent designing BFR/BFS with a vehicle capable of taking humans at about the same point in time as having a NASA certified HRated FH.

So there has yet to be a specific statement that Lunar Dragon is canceled and funds refunded to the buyers.

I think he's tired of the politics of govt HSF, and I don't blame him.

He's got a very economical platform to put considerable cislunar spacecraft payload mass ahead of anyone on earth, possibly by a factor of 8. If you want to mess with the moon in any capacity, it'll cost you dearly for every ounce.

Sure you can do it through Boeing with SLS, ... but it'll take you a while for the missions to build anything significant, and given a cost profile of 4-15x more than prior to F9/FH costing, you'll need to spread them over even more decades to afford them on the kind of budget afforded. Slow, slow, even slower. So that you can lose your advantage to others over time ... of economic lunar exploration.

Even Boeing knows it is at risk because of this. Because if they compel too much to the "slow" path ... not only would it be obvious that Boeing did so ... but that lack of progress might even hasten Boeing's programs being cancelled as being unreasonable and unaffordable.

So it makes perfect sense for SX to hold back on HSF for FH. (Which could be advanced by govt need if desired.)  Because govt needs to decide how to reconcile what it needs with how it would get it, without threatening (too much) what it has underway. Clearly there is now a different story that can be had.

If BO's vehicles were present, the same would happen as well. Likely Musk is breaking ground for Bezos/others to travel upon as well.

We will see if this is another advantage to be squandered or used. In either case, SX moves onto its own agenda irrespectively.

[jpo234]

Name some missions/payloads that exist today that cannot be done by Falcon Heavy or Falcon 9, and can be done by BFR.

I can't name one, but I'd bet that if they hit their price tag (less than $10mln) for a launch, there are a lot of missions that can't fly on F9 or FH. Not because these launchers don't have the performance but because they are too expensive.

People look at the performance numbers of BFR and think it's crazy, nobody needs that. But if BFR can launch a satellite like Formosat (that will look ridiculous in its cavernous cargo hold) for less money than other launchers, it has a market.

[MATTBLAK]

The Dragon with the crew could be placed into a parking orbit by a reusable Falcon 9, Block 5. And the next day; a Falcon Heavy in reusable mode could place an upper stage with a docking collar on top of it and more than 30 tons of propellant left in that upper stage. The Dragon with crew could then rendezvous and dock with that upper stage, and carry out the mission more or less as outlined more than a year ago.

An easier way may be to launch on a crewed F9, then launch another (unmanned) Dragon 2 on Falcon Heavy. Crewed Dragon docks with uncrewed Dragon + FH upper stage and the crew transfers to the second Dragon. Eliminates the need to build a single-purpose docking collar and does away with any uncertainties related to burning with D2 only attached via a docking port.

It's not a terrible idea - but it would add the cost of launching and recovering a second Dragon to the architecture. This is a complication and cost that shouldn't necessarily be added to the already increased cost of going to the 2-launch architecture anyway. If a two-launch mode was being adopted, I personally would prefer an actual landing was being incorporated into the whole shebang.

[AncientU]

Name some missions/payloads that exist today that cannot be done by Falcon Heavy or Falcon 9, and can be done by BFR.

I can't name one, but I'd bet that if they hit their price tag (less than $10mln) for a launch, there are a lot of missions that can't fly on F9 or FH. Not because these launchers don't have the performance but because they are too expensive.

People look at the performance numbers of BFR and think it's crazy, nobody needs that. But if BFR can launch a satellite like Formosat (that will look ridiculous in its cavernous cargo hold) for less money than other launchers, it has a market.

Why is this relevant -- missions/payloads that exist today -- since the SpaceX stated goals have nothing to do with serving only the existing market?  BFR/BFS especially...

[gongora]

Since this mission may not even exist anymore and certainly doesn't seem to be in active development, maybe it's time for this thread to take a break.