SpaceX Crewed Dragon Circumlunar Mission

[jpo234]

Wow. That's either real bad news about this circumlunar flight or real good news about BFR.

Edit: Or they are planning to send the crew up on F9, and launch the departure vehicle uncrewed. Adds some costs, but could potentially be done sooner than crew-rating FH. Only the upper stage needs to be crew-rated, and that is the same as F9 anyway.

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/960630695788990465

Musk: we kind of tabled Crew Dragon on Falcon Heavy (including the cislunar mission announced last Feb.) and focus our energies on BFR.

[envy887]

Wow. That's either real bad news about this circumlunar flight or real good news about BFR.

Edit: Or they are planning to send the crew up on F9, and launch the departure vehicle uncrewed. Adds some costs, but could potentially be done sooner than crew-rating FH. Only the upper stage needs to be crew-rated, and that is the same as F9 anyway.

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/960630695788990465

Musk: we kind of tabled Crew Dragon on Falcon Heavy (including the cislunar mission announced last Feb.) and focus our energies on BFR.

Kind of sounds like he thinks BFR can launch before 2022.

[Svetoslav]

That's quite disappointing. If Falcon Heavy is no longer an option for manned beyond-LEO missions (which is the only thing certain fans care about, including myself), then we're in the same basket with those waiting for SLS or the New Glenn.

Perhaps the Trump administation or NASA could change their mind about Falcon Heavy and come up with a lunar plan.

[cebri]

Wow. That's either real bad news about this circumlunar flight or real good news about BFR.

Edit: Or they are planning to send the crew up on F9, and launch the departure vehicle uncrewed. Adds some costs, but could potentially be done sooner than crew-rating FH. Only the upper stage needs to be crew-rated, and that is the same as F9 anyway.

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/960630695788990465

Musk: we kind of tabled Crew Dragon on Falcon Heavy (including the cislunar mission announced last Feb.) and focus our energies on BFR.

Kind of sounds like he thinks BFR can launch before 2022.

Unless something fundamental changes and somehow the US goverment agrees to fund part of the development, this is not happening.

[speedevil]

Kind of sounds like he thinks BFR can launch before 2022.

Maybe FH delay + BFR delay = 0?

[jpo234]

Kind of sounds like he thinks BFR can launch before 2022.

Maybe FH delay + BFR delay = 0?

FH delay = 5 years, so BFR delay = -5 years

2022 + (-5) = 2017. Did not happen.

[speedevil]

Kind of sounds like he thinks BFR can launch before 2022.

Unless something fundamental changes and somehow the US goverment agrees to fund part of the development, this is not happening.

You may not - quite - need BFR to launch a round-the moon mission.

If you can for example do BFS-SSTO to an equatorial orbit (perhaps with a launch from an equatorial or more-so launch site) and then refuel 50 times in orbit before shuttling up the crew, ...
(I am aware you probably mean you don't believe in this either).

[envy887]

Kind of sounds like he thinks BFR can launch before 2022.

Maybe FH delay + BFR delay = 0?

FH delay = 5 years, so BFR delay = -5 years

2022 + (-5) = 2017. Did not happen.

Well the FH circumlunar mission wouldn't happen this year. Maybe 2019. That's the delay he's talking about.

[Negan]

Wow. That's either real bad news about this circumlunar flight or real good news about BFR.

Edit: Or they are planning to send the crew up on F9, and launch the departure vehicle uncrewed. Adds some costs, but could potentially be done sooner than crew-rating FH. Only the upper stage needs to be crew-rated, and that is the same as F9 anyway.

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/960630695788990465

Musk: we kind of tabled Crew Dragon on Falcon Heavy (including the cislunar mission announced last Feb.) and focus our energies on BFR.

Kind of sounds like he thinks BFR can launch before 2022.

The 2022 date was for launching to Mars.

[Norm38]

Who'd want to go around the moon in a Dragon when they can go in a spacious BFS?
And it seems like they would have to do shakedown cruises before they can strike out for Mars.
So the Luna cruises (and they can do a lot of them quickly), set the stage for Mars.

I get the disappointment, but if crewed FH is a dead end, then every minute spent on it delays the Mars flights.

[GWH]

Who would want to ride on hardware that's finishing assembly or actively sitting on the pad when they could ride in a sweet power point slide. Look at how much space that thing has!

[mlindner]

Well there goes this thread. I guess there's nothing left to talk about.

[aquanaut99]

Really brings the number of exciting future SpaceX launches down to zero.

Yes. It also suddenly made me far less excited about today's launch. I wonder if SpaceX is really being 100% truthful here...

*Conspiracy theory mode on* I could see some political pressure behind the scenes NOT to man-rate Falcon Heavy. Because, if a man-rated FH did carry out a circumlunar flight on the anniversary of Apollo 11, then NASA would be hard-pressed to justify continuing SLS ("why build a man-rated rocket that can loft 70 mT to LEO for 2 billion when we already have one that lofts 64mT for only 200 million?"). Without a man-rated FH, NASA can still claim SLS is needed because it's the only super-heavy launcher "safe enough for astronauts". As for BFR/BFS, looking at the past track-record of SpaceX, it will probably fly 5 years late, so around 2027. By then, even SLS should have had a few successful missions under its belt, making it harder to cancel. Actually, this might even be a win-win situation for both SpaceX and NASA, just not for the taxpayer... *Conspiracy theory mode off*

[zodiacchris]

Yup, that’s it for this thread I guess. The better is the enemy of the good, and with BFR coming up, this mission is going the way of Red Dragon. On the upside, Elon said BFR is coming along nicely and I suppose the more they focus on that without getting distracted with a Lunar Dragon side show, the sooner they’ll get there. Plus, trading a trip round the moon in a capsule without toilet (and doesn’t that particular detail sound fun in all the Apollo stories  ) for a landing on the moon in the flippin’ mother of all spaceships might just be worth waiting another five years.

Heavy really seems to be shrinking to an exercise in learning for SX, nice to have, but an evolutionary dead end on the way to Mars. Still, it’ll be great to see the monster fly tomorrow, and if it’s just to show that SX can deliver on their promises, which makes BFR much more real.

Onwards, upwards! 

Oh, I did spend five days in a barographic chamber, too, when I had the bends. Lying there in my claustrophobic glass tube, breathing pure oxygen and wearing paper undies, with the doctors voice crackling on the intercom, I thought to myself that this was probably the closest I’ll get to being in a space capsule. And way less painful than when I broke my back in a flying accident...

[meberbs]

Really brings the number of exciting future SpaceX launches down to zero.

What about the first (or maybe second) commercially built vehicle performing a manned launch at the end of this year?

Or the first suborbital tests of a prototype integrated Mars ascent/Earth return vehicle next year?

[MATTBLAK]

Kind of sounds like he thinks BFR can launch before 2022.

Maybe FH delay + BFR delay = 0?

FH delay = 5 years, so BFR delay = -5 years

2022 + (-5) = 2017. Did not happen.

Well the FH circumlunar mission wouldn't happen this year. Maybe 2019. That's the delay he's talking about.

I'll be very disappointed if the Lunar Tourist mission doesn't happen! I even wrote a story about it Still; I'm intrigued by the possibility of another variant of the Lunar Dragon mission: 2x launches of Falcon 9, Block 5 - 1x reusable and 1x fully expendable...

Launch 1: Crew Dragon into Low Earth orbit. First stage lands on a barge fairly far out at sea.
Launch 2: Falcon 9, Block 5 places upper stage into orbit with the largest propellant load possible for a fully expendable launch: about 20 tons of prop. The Crew Dragon rendezvous and docks with the stage in less than 6 hours and then the Trans-Lunar injection burn happens. My question(s) is this - would there be enough delta-v to push that Dragon to escape velocity? Would the Dragon need an increased propellant supply to perform more maneuvers? Is the cost profile for 2x Falcon 9, Block 5 comparable to a single, all-up Falcon Heavy launch? Does the Falcon Heavy have to have some extra man-rating? I thought the whole Block 5 Falcon family was man-rated...

[MATTBLAK]

...And of course; if the second Falcon 9 launch with the departure stage were to fail somehow; the tourists could have a week long Earth orbital mission as a consolation prize, or backup mission. And no doubt, a partial refund of their original tickets...

[Svetoslav]

Although this post will annoy certain people, this is a perfect proof on why Musk amazing peopleism is a bad thing. To put it short, SpaceX did show significant progress during the last few years. But he dropped far too many promising plans. Red Dragon. Lunar Dragon. Falcon Heavy for human missions.

Nobody really believes BFR will be ready around 2025, right? The Heavy delays spread within a 5-year period. I'd say that if Musk says 2025, in reality this means 2030.

This in fact means more delays for beyond-Low Earth Orbit missions. However, I prefer for Musk and other private companies to stop talking too much about Moon and Mars and focus on near space. It's closer. How about sending a man to space before this decade is out?

[MATTBLAK]

Although this post will annoy certain people, this is a perfect proof on why Musk amazing peopleism is a bad thing. To put it short, SpaceX did show significant progress during the last few years. But he dropped far too many promising plans. Red Dragon. Lunar Dragon. Falcon Heavy for human missions.

Nobody really believes BFR will be ready around 2025, right? The Heavy delays spread within a 5-year period. I'd say that if Musk says 2025, in reality this means 2030.

This in fact means more delays for beyond-Low Earth Orbit missions. However, I prefer for Musk and other private companies to stop talking too much about Moon and Mars and focus on near space. It's closer. How about sending a man to space before this decade is out?

Falcon Heavy took about 5 years longer than promised to happen. I fully expect the much harder BFR/BFS to be as much as ten years late. I am a amazing people, I guess. But I'm a fairly realistic one. But I would be delighted to be wrong. I think there's what Elon wants, what the critics say will happen - and then there's reality. Sometimes; neither will get what they want.

[JamesH65]

Although this post will annoy certain people, this is a perfect proof on why Musk amazing peopleism is a bad thing. To put it short, SpaceX did show significant progress during the last few years. But he dropped far too many promising plans. Red Dragon. Lunar Dragon. Falcon Heavy for human missions.

Nobody really believes BFR will be ready around 2025, right? The Heavy delays spread within a 5-year period. I'd say that if Musk says 2025, in reality this means 2030.

This in fact means more delays for beyond-Low Earth Orbit missions. However, I prefer for Musk and other private companies to stop talking too much about Moon and Mars and focus on near space. It's closer. How about sending a man to space before this decade is out?

You think they were promising plans, SpaceX disagree, because they have dropped them. Who to beleive? My thoughts on Red/Grey dragon was they were a waste of development time. As with a human rated FH - they have the F9 for that. And that will certainly send humans to Earth orbit within two/three years.

2025 seems about right for BFx to me. Their 2022 aspiorational date seems too optimisitic.