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#1320
by
Inoeth
on 29 Jan, 2018 03:10
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To answer the first question, no, we've heard no new information or details since that initial announcement.
NASA's requirements don't have much of any bearing on any private SpaceX lunar mission with the Dragon 2- NASA isn't contributing any money or any astronauts towards this mission... However, given the delays in both Dragon 2 and Falcon Heavy, it'll probably line up just fine irregardless... I won't be surprised if there's something in their agreement with the two private persons about number of FH flights and number of manned Dragon 2 flights before they attempt the Lunar flight- tho the details of which I doubt we'll ever learn, or at most it'll be in L2, but i kind of doubt it when we're dealing with something entirely private...
I do agree that at this point it'll be sometime in early to mid 2019 at the earliest and possibly as late as 2020, tho on something like this, a 2 year delay isn't that terrible nor that unexpected...
There is also the question of this happening at all, and that will indeed depend on the readiness of FH, the Dragon 2 and possibly politics both with the Federal government and with NASA itself... Perhaps SpaceX's ties and contracts with NASA and making NASA look bad in terms of SLS and DSG ambitions will put a stop to this mission, or perhaps delaying this for BFR depending on the timeline of that... That being said, in my opinion, which can't count for that much, I do think that this will happen, but It'll probably take place mid-late 2019 at the earliest to mid 2020 at the latest... Probably after at least 3-5 FH launches and at least 3 manned Dragon 2 missions...
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#1321
by
geza
on 29 Jan, 2018 05:44
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With the Flacon Heavy maiden flight likely to occur within the next two weeks & Dragon V2 set to perform an unmanned test flight to the ISS later this year (likely in November or December) almost all the pieces for the SpaceX lunar tourism mission are starting to come together.
What about Lunar reentry? I know that the heat shild is designed for that. Still, it might need redisign of entry trajectory, software update, testing in simulation, if not in flight. Or, it is more trivial, than I assume?
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#1322
by
Roy_H
on 29 Jan, 2018 06:02
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Nothing is trivial in space flight. I would expect SpaceX to do a full trial run including sling shot past moon, testing communications, testing ECLSS, test radiation levels inside capsule and landing before sending any people on this trip.
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#1323
by
meberbs
on 29 Jan, 2018 06:13
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...
All I know is it’s likely not going to occur untill 2019 or 2020 because Dragon V2 has been delayed by commercial crew again & from what I’ve read NASA wants at least 7 successful flights of Falcon 9 before they can consider launching crew on Dragon V2 atop a Falcon 9 which could cause further Dragon V2 delays.
The 7 flights is not likely to be a driving factor. The counter starts as soon as they start flying Block 5 (probably around March) With their current and expected flight rate, they may get 7 launches done of Block 5 before the unmanned launch (currently planned for August). They don't need the 7 launches until the manned test flight though, and barring a launch failure, this won't be a problem.
I am not sure where you got November or December for the unmanned test, I don't think a slip by 3-4 months is likely at this point.
I don't expect an update on the lunar mission until mid to late this year, maybe after the unmanned test. They have no obligation to say anything about it long before the launch, so depending on the wishes of the people who bought the tickets, we might not hear anything until we see launch permits, or an extra Falcon Heavy rolling out of the factory.
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#1324
by
geza
on 29 Jan, 2018 16:05
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Nothing is trivial in space flight. I would expect SpaceX to do a full trial run including sling shot past moon, testing communications, testing ECLSS, test radiation levels inside capsule and landing before sending any people on this trip.
Once I assumed that miden flight of FH would be used for this purpose. No, midnight cherry, instead.
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#1325
by
rockets4life97
on 29 Jan, 2018 17:08
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Nothing is trivial in space flight. I would expect SpaceX to do a full trial run including sling shot past moon, testing communications, testing ECLSS, test radiation levels inside capsule and landing before sending any people on this trip.
Once I assumed that miden flight of FH would be used for this purpose. No, midnight cherry, instead.
I don't think there will be lunar flyby without passengers before a crewed version, unless those buying the ride pay for it. I think SpaceX will be confident after they fly crew to ISS. From the reports from Commercial Crew, it looks like NASA is taking a heavy hand to Dragon 2. I expect everything will have been throughly reviewed.
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#1326
by
gongora
on 29 Jan, 2018 17:19
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I think SpaceX will be confident after they fly crew to ISS. From the reports from Commercial Crew, it looks like NASA is taking a heavy hand to Dragon 2. I expect everything will have been throughly reviewed.
The Commercial Crew program isn't certifying the Dragon for that mission duration, reentry profile, or operation outside of LEO. SpaceX will be doing additional work to make sure it's safe for the different mission.
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#1327
by
Nate_Trost
on 29 Jan, 2018 17:26
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I would hazard a guess that if this is still happening, SpaceX is likely planning on refurbishing and modifying the Dragon 2 from the uncrewed test or crewed test for the flyby.
Even if they weren't, there is still no way it would happen before the first ISS crew flight. And also not before at least a few flights of the Heavy in its final Block 5 form.
In other words, I don't see how this happens before 2020.
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#1328
by
Negan
on 29 Jan, 2018 17:54
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The Commercial Crew program isn't certifying the Dragon for that mission duration
So what mission duration is commercial crew certifying for and for how many people?
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#1329
by
abaddon
on 29 Jan, 2018 18:16
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So what mission duration is commercial crew certifying for and for how many people?
Duration is long (200+ days) but most of that is docked to the station, and all of it is in the (relatively) benign environment of LEO (benign as far as radiation is concerned). Don't know what the expected max duration crewed is but I'd guess maybe four or five days?
Crew size appears to be four; although there was mention that Crew Dragon could hypothetically seat seven early on I haven't seen mention of that lately.
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#1330
by
Roy_H
on 29 Jan, 2018 18:25
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Crew size appears to be four; although there was mention that Crew Dragon could hypothetically seat seven early on I haven't seen mention of that lately.
From NASA perspective they mandated both Dragon and Starliner be designed to carry a crew of 4 normally and 7 in an emergency. While docked the extra 3 seats are installed in case an emergency evacuation of the ISS is required. Before normal departure the extra seats are removed and stored on the ISS. It is possible that the 7 seat configuration will be used to deliver people to alternate destinations like Bigelow's B330.
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#1331
by
Zed_Noir
on 29 Jan, 2018 18:43
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Is the idea of using an used Cargo Dragon to test out the ECLSS and the heat shield feasible?
Of course that brings up the idea of using a modified used cargo Dragon for the Circumlunar flight if you are testing the various sub-system with a cargo Dragon to begin with.
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#1332
by
Negan
on 29 Jan, 2018 18:59
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So what mission duration is commercial crew certifying for and for how many people?
Duration is long (200+ days) but most of that is docked to the station, and all of it is in the (relatively) benign environment of LEO (benign as far as radiation is concerned). Don't know what the expected max duration crewed is but I'd guess maybe four or five days?
Crew size appears to be four; although there was mention that Crew Dragon could hypothetically seat seven early on I haven't seen mention of that lately.
So 8 to 10 days for a crew of two plus triple-redundant systems to handle the radiation environment.
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#1333
by
Robotbeat
on 29 Jan, 2018 19:22
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LEO is within a factor of 2 or so compared to deep space, so it's not that different from an order of magnitude perspective. Remember, ISS actually travels through part of the inner Van Allen belt (the South Atlantic Anomaly).
Radiation mitigation techniques that work well at ISS's orbit should be able to work fine in deep space with a few tweaks.
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#1334
by
jpo234
on 04 Feb, 2018 13:05
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We know that SpaceX will host VIPs in the Exploration Tower for the FH launch. I would assume that the moon tourists will be present for the first launch of their ride. Is there a public list of the guests?
If for instance Harald McPike and/or Anousheh Ansari are present, what other reason could there be?
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#1335
by
cscott
on 04 Feb, 2018 13:12
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We know that SpaceX will host VIPs in the Exploration Tower for the FH launch. I would assume that the moon tourists will be present for the first launch of their ride. Is there a public list of the guests?
If for instance Harald McPike and/or Anousheh Ansari are present, what other reason could there be?
I heard "press" not "VIPs". FWIW.
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#1336
by
neoforce
on 04 Feb, 2018 17:11
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If I was a betting man (and I have no inside information) I would expect the flight in late 2020 or early 2021. Just too many things can move the schedule to the right.
But how cool would it be if everything goes perfectly and they actually pull off a July 16, 2019 launch date? That fits Elon’s flair for the dramatic.
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#1337
by
M.E.T.
on 04 Feb, 2018 17:39
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How much better and easier could BFR do this mission? A crew version of BFS could have 100 tourists making the trip in comfort, with presumably much better viewing. Even if the BFR launch cost ends up being $50m, SpaceX could charge a nice $1m per person and still make a 100% markup on the flight. Compared to $50m per person or whatever the 2 Dragon passangers are being charged.
Plus BFS could have a toilet on board, which is priceless..
I guess what I'm saying is if BFR is to be ready around 2024, then it might be worthwhile to just wait for it and do this mission in style.
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#1338
by
Zed_Noir
on 04 Feb, 2018 21:41
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How much better and easier could BFR do this mission? A crew version of BFS could have 100 tourists making the trip in comfort, with presumably much better viewing. Even if the BFR launch cost ends up being $50m, SpaceX could charge a nice $1m per person and still make a 100% markup on the flight. Compared to $50m per person or whatever the 2 Dragon passangers are being charged.
Plus BFS could have a toilet on board, which is priceless..
I guess what I'm saying is if BFR is to be ready around 2024, then it might be worthwhile to just wait for it and do this mission in style.
Doing the trip in style later doesn't have the same doing it first bragging rights for the people with too much money.
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#1339
by
AncientU
on 05 Feb, 2018 00:09
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How much better and easier could BFR do this mission? A crew version of BFS could have 100 tourists making the trip in comfort, with presumably much better viewing. Even if the BFR launch cost ends up being $50m, SpaceX could charge a nice $1m per person and still make a 100% markup on the flight. Compared to $50m per person or whatever the 2 Dragon passangers are being charged.
Plus BFS could have a toilet on board, which is priceless..
I guess what I'm saying is if BFR is to be ready around 2024, then it might be worthwhile to just wait for it and do this mission in style.
Doing the trip in style later doesn't have the same doing it first bragging rights for the people with too much money.
There may be a significant market for retro rides in an actual
capsule by the mid-to-late 2020s. Just like people pay to ride in a biplane or hot air balloon today... They won't be around much after that unless there is strong tourist demand.
