Author Topic: SpaceX Crewed Dragon Circumlunar Mission  (Read 515444 times)

Offline RDoc

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1120 on: 04/02/2017 05:22 pm »
I still don't see how this mission can be accomplished. AFAIK there are no planned launches for FH with a Dragon capsule before 2020 other than this, and only two FH flights total. It seems almost impossible to imagine that the third FH flight and very first FH Dragon flight will be a manned tourist flight.

Unless SpaceX has several other FH flights up their sleeves, this mission sounds very improbable.

Offline Space Ghost 1962

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1121 on: 04/02/2017 06:42 pm »
Why else would you assume direct injection?
Does it make it easier or harder, more or fewer, longer or shorter windows?

I honestly don't see an advantage. I think it's just all these old thoughts sitting on hold in my head while SpaceX slowly improves their capabilities making them irrelevant.

Direct ascent would mean a narrow window.  You could do it from all four pads instead of just three.

There are certain performance advantages that a free return could get from it. In one scenario, you might even get the side benefit of easier core recovery, possibly even RTLS. And, from a standpoint of operations, you get a much simpler mission profile, while losing the potential safety advantage of ECLSS / human / SC checkout before TLI.

Been thinking about this too. One interesting aspect is to align the trajectory along a certain lunar gravimetric gradient of mascons, which nicely fits with a Vandenberg inclination direct ascent on the asymmetrical free return.

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1122 on: 04/02/2017 07:12 pm »
I still don't see how this mission can be accomplished. AFAIK there are no planned launches for FH with a Dragon capsule before 2020 other than this, and only two FH flights total. It seems almost impossible to imagine that the third FH flight and very first FH Dragon flight will be a manned tourist flight.

Unless SpaceX has several other FH flights up their sleeves, this mission sounds very improbable.

3rd flight of Falcon Heavy, and likely more than 3 flights for Dragon Crew by that time.  Since a Falcon Heavy core is pretty much the same as a Falcon 9 core, I'm not sure what the concern would be of putting these two together and depending on them they first time they fly together.

The bigger risk I think is what could happen on the trip, and what could happen as they return to Earth - that's what would keep me up at night.  If I was the one going...
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Offline tdrb6115

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1123 on: 04/02/2017 07:27 pm »
It was stated be Elon Musk that center core of FH9 had to be redesigned so it probably is not to be considered 'pretty much the same' as F9 core.

Online guckyfan

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1124 on: 04/02/2017 07:43 pm »
It was stated be Elon Musk that center core of FH9 had to be redesigned so it probably is not to be considered 'pretty much the same' as F9 core.

It has to be more robust for compression and probably bending forces. Otherwise it still is pretty much the same. It does come off the same production line. Same payload adapters, except there will be stronger ones for heavy payloads, but not appliccable for Dragon.

Online Comga

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1125 on: 04/02/2017 08:37 pm »
Why else would you assume direct injection?
Does it make it easier or harder, more or fewer, longer or shorter windows?

I honestly don't see an advantage. I think it's just all these old thoughts sitting on hold in my head while SpaceX slowly improves their capabilities making them irrelevant.

Direct ascent would mean a narrow window.  You could do it from all four pads instead of just three.

There are certain performance advantages that a free return could get from it. In one scenario, you might even get the side benefit of easier core recovery, possibly even RTLS. And, from a standpoint of operations, you get a much simpler mission profile, while losing the potential safety advantage of ECLSS / human / SC checkout before TLI.

Been thinking about this too. One interesting aspect is to align the trajectory along a certain lunar gravimetric gradient of mascons, which nicely fits with a Vandenberg inclination direct ascent on the asymmetrical free return.

What do you mean by "all four pads"?
By "narrow window" do you mean the timing constraints are tighter for direct launch than for a launch into a parking orbit?  Can you explain?
From the standpoint of the passengers, it would probably be desirable to spend at least some time in Earth orbut, looking down as the ground crew and autonomous systems go through checkout.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Space Ghost 1962

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1126 on: 04/02/2017 09:00 pm »
Direct ascent would mean a narrow window.  You could do it from all four pads instead of just three.

There are certain performance advantages that a free return could get from it. In one scenario, you might even get the side benefit of easier core recovery, possibly even RTLS. And, from a standpoint of operations, you get a much simpler mission profile, while losing the potential safety advantage of ECLSS / human / SC checkout before TLI.

Been thinking about this too. One interesting aspect is to align the trajectory along a certain lunar gravimetric gradient of mascons, which nicely fits with a Vandenberg inclination direct ascent on the asymmetrical free return.

What do you mean by "all four pads"?
LC-39A, LC-40 (assumes FH TEL upgrade), Boca, SLC-4E (after FH mods)

Basically you could tie up a pad for a month w/o screwing w/manifest.

Quote
By "narrow window" do you mean the timing constraints are tighter for direct launch than for a launch into a parking orbit?  Can you explain?

Briefly - using the barycenter of the Earth Moon system you can use it for a dV advantage, but it is highly dependent on a specific time, and on how/when you deplete US. Specifics gets quite wordy here so won't take this further.

Offline rsdavis9

Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1127 on: 04/02/2017 09:17 pm »
Quote
Briefly - using the barycenter of the Earth Moon system you can use it for a dV advantage, but it is highly dependent on a specific time, and on how/when you deplete US. Specifics gets quite wordy here so won't take this further.

can't this advantage be taken with planning the couple of times around LEO so the position is the same as if you did a direct?
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Offline Space Ghost 1962

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1128 on: 04/02/2017 10:55 pm »
Quote
Briefly - using the barycenter of the Earth Moon system you can use it for a dV advantage, but it is highly dependent on a specific time, and on how/when you deplete US. Specifics gets quite wordy here so won't take this further.

can't this advantage be taken with planning the couple of times around LEO so the position is the same as if you did a direct?
Nope.

Online Steven Pietrobon

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1129 on: 04/06/2017 08:40 am »
The first US attempts at sending probes to the Moon were direct ascent. These missions were not very accurate, missing the Moon by 60,000 to 114,000 km. The problem is for an accurate insertion you have to be at the right place at the right time in your orbit for TLI. If trying to continue the TLI burn from your orbit insertion burn, you are unlikely to be in the right place due to various random effects like variations in thrust, Isp, wind direction and air pressure with altitude. Thus, by going into orbit first you can calculate your orbit and then work out when is the best time to begin the TLI burn. That can be similar to a GTO mission, where TLI occurs roughly over the equator. If you have extra performance, you can vary your launch inclination, extending the window in which you can launch. I suggest watching this video from the Apollo Mission Planning and Analysis Division.

« Last Edit: 04/06/2017 08:41 am by Steven Pietrobon »
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Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1130 on: 04/06/2017 08:58 am »
Just a thought that occurred to me: What is the maximum velocity that that FH central core can achieve and still have sufficient propellent for braking, re-entry and landing burns? I ask because I'm thinking that they may be planning to run the central core longer to reserve more upper stage propellent for the TLI.

[EDIT]
Just to clarify: I think that the optimum launch flight plan would involve RTLS for the outboard cores but a drone landing for the central core. I'm wondering just how far out they can push the central core's return point before the EDL propellent reserve drops below safe minimums.
« Last Edit: 04/06/2017 09:00 am by Ben the Space Brit »
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Offline OneSpeed

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1131 on: 04/06/2017 09:58 am »
Just a thought that occurred to me: What is the maximum velocity that that FH central core can achieve and still have sufficient propellent for braking, re-entry and landing burns? I ask because I'm thinking that they may be planning to run the central core longer to reserve more upper stage propellent for the TLI.

[EDIT]
Just to clarify: I think that the optimum launch flight plan would involve RTLS for the outboard cores but a drone landing for the central core. I'm wondering just how far out they can push the central core's return point before the EDL propellent reserve drops below safe minimums.

Here is my best guess: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42389.msg1658498#msg1658498

Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1132 on: 04/06/2017 10:35 am »
I still don't see how this mission can be accomplished. AFAIK there are no planned launches for FH with a Dragon capsule before 2020 other than this, and only two FH flights total. It seems almost impossible to imagine that the third FH flight and very first FH Dragon flight will be a manned tourist flight.

Unless SpaceX has several other FH flights up their sleeves, this mission sounds very improbable.

If NASA can convince itself that it's safe to fly people on the first flight of STS and the second flight of SLS, why is it hard to believe SpaceX could convince itself it's safe to fly people on the second flight of Falcon Heavy?  Falcon 9 flights might not retire all the risk of Falcon Heavy, but surely they retire a lot more of it than was retired before the first flight of STS and will be retired before the second flight of SLS.

Remember that Dragon has a launch abort system which SpaceX has confidence in, so, in SpaceX's view (and NASA's, since they're very closely monitoring and approving it for astronauts), Dragon is safe to ride no matter what problems the launch vehicle may have.

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1133 on: 04/06/2017 10:39 am »
Nice bit of work, OS. One question: That hypothesised lunar apogee burn: Would that require the Dragon to carry extra propellent to maintain sufficient reserves for Earth approach manoeuvres and would it need a modification to the Superdracos (expansion cones)?
« Last Edit: 04/06/2017 10:39 am by Ben the Space Brit »
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Offline OneSpeed

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1134 on: 04/06/2017 11:52 am »
Nice bit of work, OS. One question: That hypothesised lunar apogee burn: Would that require the Dragon to carry extra propellent to maintain sufficient reserves for Earth approach manoeuvres and would it need a modification to the Superdracos (expansion cones)?

I suspect this is the real reason they mention an apogee range of 300-400k miles. For 300k the Dragon 2 would have just enough propellant to complete the mission without modification. For 400k it would require around 3 tonnes of propellant, in other words the Grey Dragon would need to be a variant of the Red Dragon. 

Offline Space Ghost 1962

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1135 on: 04/09/2017 08:52 pm »
The problem is for an accurate insertion you have to be at the right place at the right time in your orbit for TLI.
Correct.

And for using a direct ascent to leverage the barycenter inclination for momentum transfer from one irregular gradient (earth) to another (moon), it's even more delicate, because you have a few billion solutions during the month, that depend on how the vehicle's dispersion's play out. Unlike during Apollo, where you didn't have the Goce/Grail data, or the means to do precision laser real-time navigational fixes.

Quote
If trying to continue the TLI burn from your orbit insertion burn, you are unlikely to be in the right place due to various random effects like variations in thrust, Isp, wind direction and air pressure with altitude.

These can/have been characterized from observed vehicle performance, and form a model that can be used to project a few hundred variations as real time contingencies, with corresponding real time alternative mission courses, not unlike the different Apollo landing contingencies, except we are talking about different routes by the moon with "free return", and they are evaluated on a millisecond basis not manually over days/hours.

So direct launch didn't have a benefit then, severe consequences, and no time for vehicle checkout. Why ever consider it now?

Because you can exhaustively evaluate the trillions of cases, including weather, and  evaluate the thousands of variations/contingencies for each, you can find within any given month a sequence of days where the manifold of opportunities reduces to a hundred to a thousand cases during a flight that the flight avionics can choose from in real time to insure.

What might this buy you?
  * Your vehicle's performance is maximally used by near perfectly using it in the Moon/Earth frame.
  * Very little downrange for all stages, likely meaning RTLS.
  * Largest capsule mass/consumables/propellants

So all your recoverable assets have the least horizontal vector to cancel. Meaning least "wear & tear".  Simplest mission footprint too, after you've coped with the previously horrendous mission planning that would be automated.

Downsides are that you'd likely tie-up a pad for significant time, ready to go, and reworking vehicle to keep it ready to go.

This approach was considered a "pipe dream". Perhaps, or perhaps not. "Musk like", maybe?

Offline deruch

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1136 on: 04/10/2017 04:15 am »
The discussion of mission operations (direct ascent vs. orbit first) has got me thinking about the end of the mission.  How to handle recovery and landing.  How much "targeting" ability will SpaceX have for the capsule return?  I'm assuming that they won't capture into Earth orbit at the end of the mission.  So, how accurate can they be in returning to a specific recovery area on a free return trajectory with direct entry?  Will SpaceX be handling recovery ops themselves? or somehow contracting US military assets to assist?  Could they blow our minds and attempt a propulsive landing on land somewhere? 

This has also got me thinking about how they plan to deal with a launch abort downrange.  What will their Recovery/Search and Rescue options be? 
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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1137 on: 04/10/2017 07:55 am »
Unless by then they already have plenty of experience in fully powered landing I expect them to do parachute landing with  propulsive assist. Which will have limited precision so they need something like Edwards Airforce base?

Online Comga

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1138 on: 04/10/2017 03:06 pm »
Unless by then they already have plenty of experience in fully powered landing I expect them to do parachute landing with  propulsive assist. Which will have limited precision so they need something like Edwards Airforce base?

Parachutes with propulsive assist, Soyuz style but much softer, makes sense, but is even Edwards big enough given the dispersion from the lunar return trajectory? 

Do they even need the main chutes?  Could this be done with just the drogue chutes?
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online guckyfan

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #1139 on: 04/10/2017 03:16 pm »
Unless by then they already have plenty of experience in fully powered landing I expect them to do parachute landing with  propulsive assist. Which will have limited precision so they need something like Edwards Airforce base?

Parachutes with propulsive assist, Soyuz style but much softer, makes sense, but is even Edwards big enough given the dispersion from the lunar return trajectory? 

Do they even need the main chutes?  Could this be done with just the drogue chutes?

CST-100 will do that, in Edwards or elsewhere. I am sure Dragon can match their landing precision.

Edit: I think they will use the main chutes. They ensure safe, if harsh, landing even when the SuperDraco fail.
« Last Edit: 04/10/2017 03:25 pm by guckyfan »

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