SpaceX Crewed Dragon Circumlunar Mission

[TrevorMonty]

EM-2 will be putting a hab module at DRO.

There is no such payload for EM-2 or other SLS missions.

Technically Jim is right in that nothing has been authorized YET. Unless there are large budget cuts DSH should happen.

[Elvis in Space]

EM-2 will be putting a hab module at DRO.

There is no such payload for EM-2 or other SLS missions.

Are you sure that will stay true?
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=38818.msg1652065#msg1652065

It may not remain a negative but I wouldn't bet money on it either. I for certain would not speak as if it were a certainty.

[su27k]

EM-2 will be putting a hab module at DRO. I think Dragon/FH can reach that. It'd allow NASA to rotate crew and have cheap logistics. That'd be a less stunt-y mission. Especially if combined with low-latency lunar telerobotics.

Frankly I don't like this DSH idea as the next HSF objective, from reading Anatoly Zak's articles it looks like this whole thing is cooked up so that traditional aerospace companies from all over the world can have something to do for the next decade, while creating more make work for SLS/Orion. Hopefully the commercial space side can negotiate a better deal, something like commercial cargo to the surface of Moon/Mars.

[Ben the Space Brit]

I would say that anything in the alleged EM program beyond the fact that NASA are more-or-less sure to launch something on SLS-001 to cis-Lunar space at some point before 2020 is only broad pencil outlines right now. That's one of the big problems and the thing that's making people nervous and, I think, placing more significance to the SpaceX announcement than is really justified.

[Proponent]

Unless there are large budget cuts DSH should happen.

With what money?  I can easily see a few tens of millions being thrown at it every year for studies.  But Orion/SLS will likely start costing more if/when it starts flying once a year, and all parties have committed to ISS through at least 2024.  And the noise is that NASA's budget will decrease.

[gongora]

This thread is about the SpaceX mission around the moon.  Whether SLS may deploy a habitat in lunar space is not really applicable to this mission, but at least it's in the general ballpark.  Whether you think SLS or Orion should be cancelled is not at all appropriate here, and has been discussed in many, many, (sooooo many) other threads already.

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

WaPo article today:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/trump-with-nasa-has-a-new-rocket-and-spaceship-wheres-he-going-to-go/2017/03/11/4193f1be-002d-11e7-8f41-ea6ed597e4ca_story.html?utm_term=.faa4be9cbfde

Interesting article. Definitely inspired by Bezos current comments and goals.

Its underlying thrust is that NASA HSF plans are under threat from many directions one of which being this SpaceX Lunar mission.

NASA's current HSF plans are a result of the previous administration letting Congress take the drivers seat. But a new administration may lead and push Congress in another direction.

This SpaceX mission is a admittance that SpaceX has the capability to do HSF BEO and within the new administration's first term (by 2021).

So where is SpaceX headed with this and will NASA change its course (again)?

[Ben the Space Brit]

So where is SpaceX headed with this and will NASA change its course (again)?

Mostly, it's just SpaceX providing a service to a paying customer. The fact that it proves that they can reach cis-Lunar space with their crewed spacecraft and (one presumes) with a few modifications, service facilities in that area is a significant bonus in marketing terms.

[mikelepage]

So where is SpaceX headed with this and will NASA change its course (again)?

NASA's mission statement is “to pioneer the future in space exploration, scientific discovery and aeronautics research.”

Nothing about building rockets in there.  But they were pioneers in rocket building, as was appropriate when it was necessary to build rockets to achieve space exploration, scientific discovery and aeronautics research.

There's no way the medical research performed by NIH would be where it is today if we were still building our own pipettes and measurement equipment.  It's a problem that NASA is still building rockets.  NASA's job is to push the boundaries of exploration and discovery in space, and tell the public what it finds. If it can do that more cheaply by supporting private industry, then it's mission statement (and status as a Gov Dept) suggests it should.

[TomH]

were pioneers in rocket building, as was appropriate when it was necessary to build rockets to achieve space exploration.

The pioneering was done by Werner von Braun, who simply built on what he already had been doing for almost 30 years. The Saturn series are the only two rockets NASA built, not including a couple of rocket powered space plane designs.

[AncientU]

...Human Genome...project was a HUGE success in large part because of this Public-Private Partnership.

It was a huge success because of Moore's Law, nothing more, nothing less. End OT discussion.

Our space effort can take advantage of Moore's law (which the private sector is leaning on heavily).
Using old technology vs. advantages of state-of-the-art is quite on topic for this discussion.

Pouring billions of dollars into a project that uses old technology is crazily inefficient and is still likely to be behind efforts that use current tech.  3D printing, advanced avionics, composite materials, modern modeling -- all are parts of how to do things better at a fraction of the price.

SpaceX is planning to send crew around the Moon (probably before SLS/Orion) at a fraction of the price because they take advantage of Moore's Law.

[Robotbeat]

I'd say the constellation us more directly Moore's Law related.

It'll be interesting to see. Kind of like cubesats but about 100x the volume and mass. But deployment numbers are closest to the Planetlabs numbers than anything else flying today.

[Glom]

Does Moore's Law apply to rocketry? Unless we're able to double ISP every two years.

[rpapo]

Does Moore's Law apply to rocketry? Unless we're able to double ISP every two years.

From Wikipedia, "Moore's law is the observation that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years."

This is defined rather narrowly in terms of electronic technology.  The concept can be extended to other things, but only barely.  The computational horsepower available to do tricky things like landing a first-stage booster on a barge or a landing pad has indeed improved over the years.  One can say that rocket and material science has improved over the decades, but nowhere near what we have seen going on in electronics.

[Robotbeat]

Does Moore's Law apply to rocketry? Unless we're able to double ISP every two years.

That's a misinterpretation. Moore's Law doesn't double clock speed every two years and so actual useful processing power doesn't increase that fast. But anyway, we can increase Isp of electric rockets arbitrarily provided we have the power, and Moore's Law is related to making solar panels lighter and cheaper, which does enable a continued increase in Isp. Moore's Law is actually about cost reduction, and solar panel cost is almost on a Moore's Law-like trajectory. Swanson's Law is solar cells halve in cost every 10 years. But we've been outstripping that lately. In 2014, solar cells were 36¢/W. Now in 2017 the spot price for cells is just 20¢/W, a pace more like Moore's Law.

[MATTBLAK]

Flight of The Dragon
By Matthew Pavletich

The more than 2000 American and International journalists at Kennedy Space Center that April morning, 2020, waited and listened with a mixture of excitement, anticipation and nervousness. On the many big televisions around the KSC Press Center, there were several live feeds playing from Mission Control and a spacecraft currently in orbit above the other side of the Earth. And outside, occasional announcements spoke calmly from the Public Address system speakers. More than two hours ago the Journalists, TV reporters and the hundreds of thousands of spectators crowding the Visitors Centers, marinas, Causeway and even the sides of the roads leading into Merritt Island, had witnessed the launch of two human beings, specifically two men, on one of the largest rockets in the world.

   Any crewed launch from Kennedy Space Center was a relatively rare event, even in this second decade of the 21st Century. But in the previous two years, a steadily increasing roster of men and women had launched from the launch pads on Falcon and Atlas rockets; heading for the International Space Station. For more than 7 years, no human being had risen from KSC on powerful, flaming U.S. rockets and spacecraft to proudly and boldly send people to that huge Outpost in the heavens. For too many years, the glory had belonged to the trusty Russian Soyuz spacecraft and launchers.

   But no more – the well trained and motivated Astronauts were now riding craft with names like ‘Starliner’ and ‘Dragon’. And they rode ‘uphill’ on their thundering rockets to a place no more than 400 kilometers in the sky, which orbited the Earth about every ninety minutes. It was still a hazardous undertaking, to be sure and even after dozens of crews had inhabited the speeding, shining Outpost it was certainly not taken for granted.
   Though, on this notable day; there was more excitement in the air than usual. For this had been no ordinary launch, nor no ordinary mission. A fan of the old Science Fantasy franchise ‘Star Wars’ might say; “There is a great disturbance in The Force…” …And they would be accurate.

   Many of the journalists and storytellers at KSC were not young men and women. Some had even been doing this since the 1960s. One distinguished member of the ‘Space Fourth Estate’ sat at his desk station in the Press Center and made notes on his paper pad with a dark ‘B’ pencil – just as he did in the days of Gemini and Apollo. He wrote quickly and surely, pausing a moment to push the thick glasses back up his nose to their rightful place – he was far from the only one perspiring, even in this big air-conditioned room. He had to get his impressions down right; too many journalists in this day and age indulged in trivial ‘sound bites’ he felt. He had a responsibility to History – a History he felt had been neglected for far too long. The minutes passed by and the tension continued.
   Nearby, a middle-aged man from New Zealand with a shaven head stretched,  to try and ease his aching back and neck. He glanced at his companions on either side and sighed. He was about to speak when an announcement came over the TV sets and P.A. systems – the chatter in the Press Room quickly dropped away.

   “This is Dragon Mission Control at T-Plus two hours and fifty-one minutes from Launch. We have just heard that there is a go ahead for the next phase of the flight –“ and the Public Affairs officer stopped a moment for the audio feed from Mission Control to be heard:

   “This is Capcom for Dragon: you are Go for Trans Lunar Injection, repeat you are Go for T.L.I! Your sequencer should now be displaying the ‘Proceed’ events, Over.”
   A rustle of excitement filled the room and there were some stifled cheers – for nobody wanted to miss the reply. On the TV screens the view had shifted to a live TV relay from the Dragon of the two crew members. Strapped into their couches and wearing their Space X pressure suits, they could be seen to be grinning broadly and waving at the camera.
   “Roger that, Capcom!” answered one of the crew happily. “Here we go!”
   The Press Room erupted in cheers and some clapping. The veteran journalist looked around him, savoring the moment. He saw the New Zealand man and noted the tears running down his cheeks and his slightly quivering smile. Then his own vision blurred for a moment. He wiped his eyes and picked up his pencil again...

   ...On a cruise ship bound for Honolulu, dozens of guests stood on the deck in the warm night air. Many clutched drinks in their hands and chattered amiably among themselves. One particular group of the cruise goers were watching the dark predawn sky with a singular purpose, however. The Cruise Director had even turned off many of the deck lights to see the night sky better, though some dim LED lights were glowing at foot level for safety’s sake. After a short time, their vigilance was rewarded.
   “There it is! I see them – I see it!!” cried a young woman excitedly. She was pointing upwards into the clear, starry night. As they watched, a bright reddish light appeared. Within moments, the light was glowing brightly and appeared to grow a greenish, comet like tail. It was accelerating visibly as they watched. Some of the watchers were puzzled, though – for they didn’t watch or read the news much.
   “What is it?” asked one slightly drunk man, peering upwards at the strange vision – a type not seen in nearly fifty years.
   “There be a Dragon,” the young woman said, her voice quavering with emotion. “From this night on; there will always be Dragons…”

[envy887]

Our space effort can take advantage of Moore's law (which the private sector is leaning on heavily).

That is just plain stupidity. It is not applicable.  Just like the rocket equation does not apply to computing power.

Computers don't use or need rockets, but rockets do use and need computers.

[RonM]

Our space effort can take advantage of Moore's law (which the private sector is leaning on heavily).

That is just plain stupidity. It is not applicable.  Just like the rocket equation does not apply to computing power.

Yes. All industries take advantage of modern computing power, so why bring up the oft misused Moore's Law?

Getting back on topic, SpaceX's crewed circumlunar mission is a great example of what commercial space can do with some funding from the government to help get the hardware built. Okay, some may complain that it's just a tourist stunt, but isn't it remarkable that a commercial space company can say, "Sure, our spacecraft can do that."

NASA building SLS and Orion will result in a capable system, but at great expense over many years. For a fraction of the money NASA can help commercial space build capable systems that NASA can use.

If Congress wants to continue funding SLS and Orion, they need to fund payloads that make sense for a BEO exploration program. With a launch rate of one per year, SLS should only launch big payloads, while other components and maybe even Orion are launched on commercial rockets. Unfortunately, I don't see that happening. Maybe the Administration's review of NASA, with their emphasis on private industry, will change policy for the better.

[meekGee]

Indirectly, Moore's law helps everything.

The fact that a noob company can work on a state of the art SC engine and get it to work so quickly is very much a consequence of ML.

The fact that you can finance a huge project using the constellation is a result of ML since the demand originates with smart phones and self driving cars.

As folks said, the computational power needed for fly-back and landing is not found in older rockets.

And of course, ISP proper has got nothing to do with it. 

[Cherokee43v6]

Flight of The Dragon
By Matthew Pavletich
...
   “There be a Dragon,” the young woman said, her voice quavering with emotion. “From this night on; there will always be Dragons…”

From one (amateur) writer to another.  Thank you sir.  Well written!