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#100
by
cebri
on 27 Feb, 2017 21:13
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Obviusly a part of me is cheering and hoping they make their late 2018 target. I would love SpaceX to honor Apollo 8 astronauts now that they are still all alive, it would be awesome to have them at the launch. By far my favourite Apollo mission.
On the other hand, i'm quite intriged about the process here. Not really liking that this is something that hasn't come out of SpaceX but from this two people that have asked for this flight. As some other people have pointed out, this mission could put SpaceX at the lead of the race for going back beyond LEO, but a LOC could be very damaging to their reputation.
Also, whatever elon says, NASA will surely take this as a direct attack on SLS.
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#101
by
Space Ghost 1962
on 27 Feb, 2017 21:14
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Those that aren't happy, just think of how many SpaceX lunar missions could have been funded with what has been already spent on CxP/SLS/Orion thus far... The waste...
Don't think of it that way.
Think of it as a "pivot". To survive, they have to leverage all that work. So now they have "motivation".
If they don't do it, someone else will. Before it was a insane boast. Now its real.
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#102
by
Coastal Ron
on 27 Feb, 2017 21:16
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But at the same time - to have that first great leap in 50 year go to ... tourists!?. This hurts and makes me a bit angry.
Tourists take calculated risks for things that have been done before.
If something hasn't been done before (i.e. the risks can't fully be calculated), then those doing it are adventurers.
People with extreme amounts of money are yet again able to buy their way though life.
Charles Lindbergh would not have been able to fly from New York City to Paris without the backing of rich investors, but also many adventurers self-fund themselves. Do we really care how much money of their own money they are spending?
I would have been happier if the announcement read: "Wealthy private individuals donate significant money to SpaceX to train and launch two engineering citizen scientists on a free return orbit of the moon. The two future private astronauts will be chosen based on merit, education, and their ability to stimulate and captivate the future generation of space explorer..." (you get the idea).
It's a ride inside an aluminum can. And it looks to be a pretty boring one until they approach the Moon, or are approaching Earth. But otherwise it looks to be a lot of "hey, the Moon/Earth is getting closer" type observations. Plus it's likely to be rather odorous as the flight goes on...
Am I alone in this?
Apparently not.
My view though is that this will help to breakdown the barriers to sending more people into space that are not government employees or rich people. And that is the goal that SpaceX is working towards, certainly for colonizing Mars.
So this does fit into Musk's long-term plans. And it should be pretty inspiring, regardless what their bank accounts look like...
My $0.02
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#103
by
Eric Hedman
on 27 Feb, 2017 21:16
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Now develop a service module with some kick and if NASA builds and launches their deep space habitat and you have commercial crew to the Moon.
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#104
by
gin455res
on 27 Feb, 2017 21:16
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I'm somehow glum about this announcement. I mean, it's great that this move is happening - that the technology and processes will be developed to further humanity into space. But at the same time - to have that first great leap in 50 year go to ... tourists!?. This hurts and makes me a bit angry. People with extreme amounts of money are yet again able to buy their way though life. I would have been happier if the announcement read: "Wealthy private individuals donate significant money to SpaceX to train and launch two engineering citizen scientists on a free return orbit of the moon. The two future private astronauts will be chosen based on merit, education, and their ability to stimulate and captivate the future generation of space explorer..." (you get the idea).
Am I alone in this?
Would you rather have these wealthy individuals spend their money on overpriced wines, cars, and yachts? They are investing it in SpaceX instead, a company that will bring us to Mars one day!
MoonOne reality show to find the passengers, anyone?
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#105
by
jsgirald
on 27 Feb, 2017 21:16
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No mention of a crew, only 2 passengers?
People, who are going to spend so much money, are probaly ready to learn to push the abort button in case...
But think of a solvable problem, not nearly Apollo 13 leves of bad, wouldn't they like to have a pro who knows what to do and stay calm?
Once the dragon is underway, there is little that can be done. There is no engine to do fancy maneuvers.
Yes, no need for fancy maneuvers, but still something critical might break (say ECLSS).
I re-watched Apollo 13 just yesterday, those guys had years of training, first as pilots and engineers and later as astronauts. I don't think an amateur can reach that level in a couple of years.
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#106
by
bdub217
on 27 Feb, 2017 21:17
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Lets break down the timetable shall we. We know SpaceX is notoriously optimistic about their timetables and this launch involves a FH (which hasn’t been launched yet) on a Dragon 2 (ditto).
Later this year, as part of NASA’s Commercial Crew Program, we will launch our Crew Dragon (Dragon Version 2) spacecraft to the International Space Station.
Currently slated for November 2017. This launch is scheduled behind: 5 commercial launches from KSC, 3 Dragon CRS missions from KSC, 3 commercial launches from VAFB, and 2 Falcon Heavy launches. Anybody want to bet a buck that they are not quite ready for 13 launches in 8 months? So lets be generous and say Dragon2 maiden flight happens a year from now, March 2018.
This first demonstration mission will be in automatic mode, without people on board. A subsequent mission with crew is expected to fly in the second quarter of 2018.
Lets be generous again and say the first commercial crew flight slides to the end of 3Q or September 2018.
SpaceX is currently contracted to perform an average of four Dragon 2 missions to the ISS per year, three carrying cargo and one carrying crew. . . .
Once operational Crew Dragon missions are underway for NASA, SpaceX will launch the private mission on a journey to circumnavigate the moon and return to Earth.
Very fuzzy wording here. Again, to be generous, lets say this means he’d want to see two more commercial crew flights to the ISS, or 1 per quarter before the moon shot. Lets be generous again and say that’s once every 5 months, so that’s 10 months after the first commercial crew, or July 2019. Add a generous two month turnaround and that gets us to September 2019.
Realistically, I don’t see this happening before 2Q of 2020. But hey, “sometime next year” sounds a lot more sexy.
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#107
by
guckyfan
on 27 Feb, 2017 21:18
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But at the same time - to have that first great leap in 50 year go to ... tourists!?. This hurts and makes me a bit angry.
...................
Am I alone in this?
It isreally not NASAs fault. They have to do what they are told to.
Or who are you angry at?
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#108
by
Endeavour_01
on 27 Feb, 2017 21:18
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If NASA wants to send scientists of Dragon 2, they can:
"If NASA decides they want to do the first lunar orbit mission, obviously we would give them priority," Musk said.
I have to admit that while I feel incredibly excited about this announcement I was a little miffed that the first flight would go to tourists. I am not against space tourism at all. I just want the first people to return to the moon in 45 yrs to be representatives of the whole country, not tourists. After hearing what Musk said above I feel much better.
Even if the private crew goes first I will still be very excited and supportive of this amazing mission!
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#109
by
Semmel
on 27 Feb, 2017 21:19
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This announcement makes me very excited, as other people as well. It has been said before, this calls for an un-crewed test first. What better to use than the FH demo flight with the pad abort D2 on top? Sure, its not the same pressure vessel design, its a Dragon 1 in a new dress after all. But that is not needed to have an exact D2 for it. Its enough to prove communications, mission profile and the hot reentry, which it should be able to do. Other advantage is.. if the FH demo goes south, the timeline is not going to stick anyway and they need to redo the test with a ISS-D2. There is real danger but only to their own assets: an untested CIS D2 on an untested FH.
So my glass ball is full of tea leaves, but it predicts a D2 going around the moon for the FH demo test flight.
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#110
by
launchwatcher
on 27 Feb, 2017 21:21
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I love the name MoonDragon. His is what we have all been waiting for and more than justifies the funding of commercial flights to ISS. Well done Elon and all at SpaceX
Doesn't that name infringe a Marvel copyrighted character.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moondragon
I'm not an intellectual property lawyer but my understanding is that names are a matter for trademarks, not copyrights, and trademarks are scoped to particular domains. As a trademark, Apple the computer doesn't conflict with Apple the fruit or Apple the record company.
As comic book characters don't directly compete with lunar space tourism...
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#111
by
craigcocca
on 27 Feb, 2017 21:22
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No mention of a crew, only 2 passengers?
People, who are going to spend so much money, are probaly ready to learn to push the abort button in case...
But think of a solvable problem, not nearly Apollo 13 leves of bad, wouldn't they like to have a pro who knows what to do and stay calm?
Once the dragon is underway, there is little that can be done. There is no engine to do fancy maneuvers.
Yes, no need for fancy maneuvers, but still something critical might break (say ECLSS).
I re-watched Apollo 13 just yesterday, those guys had years of training, first as pilots and engineers and later as astronauts. I don't think an amateur can reach that level in a couple of years.
Granted, some training for our two unnamed tourist-astronauts would be a good idea. But also remember that we've gone from flying to the moon with a computer that is as powerful as a scientific pocket calculator (1969-1972) to a world where we have cars that are better drivers than humans (Tesla, as demonstrated by the 40% reduction in Tesla crashes since Autopilot launched). With that in mind, the two tourists are probably just along for the ride and won't have much to do. And, as long as they are on a free return trajectory, then the only two things that have to work on Dragon post launch are life support and the landing system (parachutes or Super Dracos)...everything else is controlled by Sir Isaac Newton.
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#112
by
wannamoonbase
on 27 Feb, 2017 21:23
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Those that aren't happy, just think of how many SpaceX lunar missions could have been funded with what has been already spent on CxP/SLS/Orion thus far... The waste...
Some $20B and counting?
Perhaps more sadly... 
At $200 million for MoonDragon there would be 100 lunar flyby missions for $20B.
Too bad congress dictates how NASA builds rockets.
I'm excited about this, very excited, but this isn't a slam dunk or some new level for SpaceX until those passengers are back on the ground.
Also, anyone care to speculate on whether they will need FAA approval for Dragon 2 to fly paying passengers? This doesn't seem like something that can be ignored.
Edit: hard to see how there won't be a test flight. Navigation, autopilot, re-entry. Not something you want to do the first time with live cargo.
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#113
by
Rocket Science
on 27 Feb, 2017 21:24
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Looking forward to hear those words again... "You are GO for TLI"...
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#114
by
craigcocca
on 27 Feb, 2017 21:24
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If NASA wants to send scientists of Dragon 2, they can:
"If NASA decides they want to do the first lunar orbit mission, obviously we would give them priority," Musk said.
I have to admit that while I feel incredibly excited about this announcement I was a little miffed that the first flight would go to tourists. I am not against space tourism at all. I just want the first people to return to the moon in 45 yrs to be representatives of the whole country, not tourists. After hearing what Musk said above I feel much better.
Even if the private crew goes first I will still be very excited and supportive of this amazing mission!
Wouldn't it be a trip if one of the tourists is Elon?
EDIT: Even better....Sir Richard Branson and Elon <ducks>
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#115
by
JamesH65
on 27 Feb, 2017 21:24
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No mention of a crew, only 2 passengers?
People, who are going to spend so much money, are probaly ready to learn to push the abort button in case...
But think of a solvable problem, not nearly Apollo 13 leves of bad, wouldn't they like to have a pro who knows what to do and stay calm?
Once the dragon is underway, there is little that can be done. There is no engine to do fancy maneuvers.
Yes, no need for fancy maneuvers, but still something critical might break (say ECLSS).
I re-watched Apollo 13 just yesterday, those guys had years of training, first as pilots and engineers and later as astronauts. I don't think an amateur can reach that level in a couple of years.
I dunno. There are some pretty smart people out there - you generally don't acquire large amounts of cash without some level of intelligence (unless you inherit it - Trump?). Did the training the Apollo guys get enable them to duct tape containers together? Or is that something any intelligent person could do. Of course, there are lots of switches in Apollo to learn - that's not the case in Dragon where everything is automated, or computer controlled.
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#116
by
jpo234
on 27 Feb, 2017 21:24
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So my glass ball is full of tea leaves, but it predicts a D2 going around the moon for the FH demo test flight.
Would there be a Dragon in time for the demo flight? I very much doubt this...
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#117
by
Jdeshetler
on 27 Feb, 2017 21:25
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Elon's "Steal Underpants" is not a figure of speech anymore.
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#118
by
MATTBLAK
on 27 Feb, 2017 21:25
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I would do it in a heartbeat - if I had the money. With some exercise, I'd probably even pass the physical!!
But the very most I
might be able to afford would be a Branson or Bezos sub-orbital flight
...I find it interesting that in some of the threads I've participated in, the ideas for 'Lunar Dragon' missions have been batted to-and-fro, with greater or lesser detail and agreements. Now, it seems that an idea I had for doing Lunar orbital and/or basic landing missions with dual Falcon 9/Falcon Heavy launches are much closer to credible:
Launch a 20-22 ton spacecraft capable of inserting itself into Lunar orbit on a Falcon 9. Then, launch a Falcon Heavy a day or so later with an Earth Departure Stage (
Falcon upper stage). The spacecraft docks with the EDS and TLI to the Moon, Alice! This would be a slimmed-down version of the Constellation paradigm, but done with cheaper Commercial launchers and spacecraft. Moon Dragon could have a 'propulsion pallet' mounted in it's Trunk - either a cluster of standard Dracos to slow it into Lunar orbit, or a modified Super Draco with an extension nozzle for better Specific Impulse.
In other threads, the mighty Space Ghost1962, myself and others have speculated on a Lunar landing Dragon - no weighty Earth entry heatshield or parachutes, and either a 'crasher stage' for most of the descent, drop tanks or 'saddle bag' tanks for propellant supplies to and from the Lunar surface. Or better and more likely yet: adapt the Space X engines to an all-new, purpose-built craft for 2x person descent and ascent.
The sky literally is, the limit...
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#119
by
wannamoonbase
on 27 Feb, 2017 21:26
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So my glass ball is full of tea leaves, but it predicts a D2 going around the moon for the FH demo test flight.
Would there be a Dragon in time for the demo flight? I very much doubt this...
But maybe not if they started on that a year ago and strip out some things that weren't critical. And if it can be refurbished maybe not that expensively either.
