Four things SpaceX can do in 2017

[DOCinCT]

Eric Berger offered up "Four things SpaceX can do in 2017 to Get It's Groove Back"
1. RTF in January
2. First re-flown core in 1st quarter
3. Falcon Heavy by mid-year
4. Dragon 2 by year end

I think 1,2 not a problem, FH maybe, 4 probably not

http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/12/four-things-spacex-can-do-in-2017-to-get-its-groove-back/

[llanitedave]

Right.  As someone in the comments mentioned, the four things that they can do are exactly the four things that they're trying to do.  In that sense the article wasn't real helpful.

[rliebman]

i would add a fifth
have 100% success of the launch vehicle(s) to ensure qualification and certification for commercial crew

[Kabloona]

And here's one thing Eric Berger can do to get his groove back: stop calling the ASDS a "boat."

[Robotbeat]

And here's one thing Eric Berger can do to get his groove back: stop calling the ASDS a "boat."

...and stop being a Moon Firster. (Hi, Eric.)

[JasonAW3]

And here's one thing Eric Berger can do to get his groove back: stop calling the ASDS a "boat."

...and stop being a Moon Firster. (Hi, Eric.)

Aw, dude! Come on! It's right THERE!  Only 300,000 Kilometers away!  Easy peasey!

     Don't get me wrong, I want us on Mars too, but really, the tech we need to go to Mars is pretty much the same as what we need to go to the moon, only with less streamlining!

[Lee Jay]

I've got four of my own:

Return to flight.
Fly all missions safely.
Stop over-promising and under-delivering.
Focus on getting customer payloads to orbit rather than settling people on Mars.

[Lar]

I didn't really think SpaceX "lost their groove" but that's just me

[Robotbeat]

I've got four of my own:

Return to flight.
Fly all missions safely.
Stop over-promising and under-delivering.
Focus on getting customer payloads to orbit rather than settling people on Mars.

On the last one: why? We already have ULA, Ariane, etc. However, SpaceX is the only one really doing Mars.

I agree, however, that the best way to ensure settling people on Mars in the near future is for SpaceX to succeed in the near term getting Falcon 9 operating like the reliable workhorse she wants to be.

[RonM]

I've got four of my own:

Return to flight.
Fly all missions safely.
Stop over-promising and under-delivering.
Focus on getting customer payloads to orbit rather than settling people on Mars.

On the last one: why? We already have ULA, Ariane, etc. However, SpaceX is the only one really doing Mars.

I agree, however, that the best way to ensure settling people on Mars in the near future is for SpaceX to succeed in the near term getting Falcon 9 operating like the reliable workhorse she wants to be.

If SpaceX loses customers to their competition, SpaceX will not have the money to pay for their Mars plans or their communication satellite network. Getting F9 and FH flying with no more failures is critical for SpaceX to survive.

Once the Falcon series is launching reliably and at a good pace, everything else will fall into place.

[Robotbeat]

I've got four of my own:

Return to flight.
Fly all missions safely.
Stop over-promising and under-delivering.
Focus on getting customer payloads to orbit rather than settling people on Mars.

On the last one: why? We already have ULA, Ariane, etc. However, SpaceX is the only one really doing Mars.

I agree, however, that the best way to ensure settling people on Mars in the near future is for SpaceX to succeed in the near term getting Falcon 9 operating like the reliable workhorse she wants to be.

If SpaceX loses customers to their competition, SpaceX will not have the money to pay for their Mars plans or their communication satellite network. Getting F9 and FH flying with no more failures is critical for SpaceX to survive.

Once the Falcon series is launching reliably and at a good pace, everything else will fall into place.

Precisely. But I would never encourage SpaceX to lose sight of Mars.

I mean look at Beal Aerospace. Bunch of money, more than Musk had. But failed because the goal was to build heavy lift tickets to place comm sats in orbit.

In another thread, HMXHMX said that deep pockets and implacable will are needed to succeed. Hard to maintain implacable will to just do what Ariane and others are doing. Lose sight of Mars, and you lose the implacable resolve. Not just for Musk but for the employees as well. SpaceX isn't able to hire the best and the brightest while working them brutally hard just to launch comm sats. This fact is partly why others have failed and why Europe has not produced a SpaceX.

[Lar]

I don't see you guys as disagreeing. Blocking and tackling[1] may not be exciting[2] but it wins NFL games[3].

1 - routine commercial launches
2 - except to many of us, I cheer each time
3 - and gets you to mars...

[Robotbeat]

Comm sats are the /means/, not the end. SpaceX will fail if and as soon as they forget that.

[Rocket Science]

Stop shooting themselves in the foot...

[Lee Jay]

I've got four of my own:

Return to flight.
Fly all missions safely.
Stop over-promising and under-delivering.
Focus on getting customer payloads to orbit rather than settling people on Mars.

On the last one: why?

So they can get everyone focused on doing their actual, paying job correctly.

[Robotbeat]

Mars is their job. Comm sats are just a means to that.

Of course SpaceX has to get Falcon 9 flying reliably and repeatedly. Mars has never consumed a majority of their resources, nowhere close. But they've never lost sight of Mars. As soon as they do, they'll have trouble retaining top talent and replacing it. They'll have to pay more and for less cream-of-the-crop.

I get we're all anxious about SpaceX due to 2 major accidents in 15 months and the standdowns. But if anything it was because they were focused on getting F9 to very high performance and also trying to burn down their manifest, NOT because of Mars!

So I don't see how changing their focus away from their current view would help. What WOULD help is to change from performance-optimization to reliability and repeatability. There is innovation to be had there, too. But this idea that they were too focused on Mars just isn't a thing.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

What WOULD help is to change from performance-optimization to reliability and repeatability. There is innovation to be had there, too.

I do wonder to what extent, if at all, SpaceX will change their approach following two failures. For example lock down the F9 design/configuration until a decent chunk of the launch manifest is cleared. We know there's a further F9 increment planned and I don't expect SpaceX will hold back on that, but should they?

I believe the changes we know about (more thrust and different leg design) are things that either carry little risk to the primary mission and/or should be easy enough to test on the ground. The changes may be focussed on reusability but aren't some customers already expecting/planning on it?

[Kansan52]

1. Fly
2. Fly
3. Fly
4. Fly

[llanitedave]

In another thread, HMXHMX said that deep pockets and implacable will are needed to succeed. Hard to maintain implacable will to just do what Ariane and others are doing. Lose sight of Mars, and you lose the implacable resolve. Not just for Musk but for the employees as well. SpaceX isn't able to hire the best and the brightest while working them brutally hard just to launch comm sats. This fact is partly why others have failed and why Europe has not produced a SpaceX.

This can't be emphasized enough.  It's often been mentioned that part of the reason SpaceX undercuts the competition on launch costs is because they pay relatively low wages.  It's employees work very hard for those low wages, not because they're fools, but because their vision to colonize Mars is at least as strong as Musk's is, if not stronger.  Musk CAN'T back off from his Mars aspirations, even if he wanted to (I doubt if he wants to), because in doing that he would lose his workforce. 


Every advantage SpaceX has gained so far is directly due to the fact that there are lots of people besides Musk who want to colonize Mars.  They follow Musk only because he leads them towards their own goals.  If he drops that vision, he might as well give up on the company.

[guckyfan]

Stop shooting themselves in the foot...

You are implying they do.

Same as "When did you stop beating your wife?"