Better Safe Than Sorry“A question to NASA Administrator Richard Truly: Each time a hardware problem forces a shuttle delay, you cite the decision to delay as another sign of NASA’s commitment to “safety first.” When the hardware breaks, the hardware is making the ‘decision’ for you. The tough question, the one the ‘old NASA’ failed to face, may come by the end of the year: If the shuttle fails to meet its flight rate of five flights in the last half of the year, are you prepared to bite the bullet, admitting that the goal of nine flights in 1991 is too high a burden?” - Dixon P. Otto, Publisher and Editor of Countdown magazine
A series of problems disrupting shuttle flights this year are more a testament to the difficulty of spaceflight and NASA's post-Challenger safety concerns than to over-scheduling, experts say. But, the rough sledding may serve as a warning to Congress that the shuttle fleet could have a difficult time assembling a space station later this decade without more ships or new expendable rockets.
"I think the thing to point out is the contrast with Challenger, the extreme caution with which each launch is being approached," said John Logsdon, director of graduate studies in technology, science and public policy at George Washington University. "The shuttle is a scarce and fragile national asset. Preserving its capability to operate is more important than any single mission," Logsdon said.
"The message here is that it is normal for things to be fouled up," said John Pike, a space policy analyst for the Washington-based Federation of American Scientists. "It's just the nature of the business that this stuff is just real hard to do. You always try to do too much," he said. "You will always try to do about a third more than you will wind up doing.”
"Flying the Space Shuttle is not like operating an airline and never will be," Navy Capt. Robert Crippen, NASA Shuttle Program Director, reminded reporters last week. "It's a very complex set of machinery we are dealing with. I think the American public understands that," said Crippen, a former astronaut who has flown the Space Shuttle a record four times. "They will not have us fly otherwise.”
His comments accompanied an announcement that an elusive fuelleak would delay the shuttle Columbia's 10-day Astro astronomy mission until mid-August and that NASA would cut the flights it plans this year from nine, its previous annual high, to eight. It will be the longest delay for a shuttle flight since missions resumed in September 1988, 32 months after the Challenger accident.
Mechanical difficulties, poor weather and even crew illnesses have caused or contributed to brief delays in three previous shuttle missions this year. NASA issues an official shuttle schedule annually and makes revisions after almost every launch. "You cannot anticipate all the problems," NASA launch director Robert Sieck told reporters at the Kennedy Space Center two weeks ago. "You set a success-oriented, reasonable-chance-of-success plan for a calendar period of time. If the hardware is good to you, you make it. If it's not, you don't.”
"If you don't try, you will never make it," said Air Force Colonel Brewster Shaw, the shuttle astronaut who makes the "go-no go"decision in the final minutes of each countdown. "You might as well schedule them, and you can back off as necessary.”
Among the charges leveled at the space agency by critics in the aftermath of the January 1986 Challenger explosion was that NASA had sacrificed safety in order to build the shuttle's flight rate. NASA responded by shucking commercial satellites from its manifest, limiting its cargos to scientific and national security payloads. Tougher launch restrictions were imposed and the space agency began a slow buildup in the shuttle flight rate toward a peak of 13 in 1993. By then, its three-member shuttle orbiter fleet will be joined by a fourth orbiter, Endeavour.
Since its inaugural flight nine years ago, the shuttle has flown 35 times, 10 of those missions in the post-Challenger era. NASA's new caution since the tragedy has been repaid with success. Those 10 flights have included the long-awaited launch of the Hubble Space Telescope and a pair of sophisticated communications satellites that handle Hubble signals. The shuttle has successfully lofted probes now en route to Venus and Jupiter for prolonged studies.
In January, following a month's delay due to launch pad problems, a shuttle crew successfully retrieved the box-car sized Long Duration Exposure Facility just weeks before it was to make a fiery re-entry through the Earth's atmosphere. The post-Challenger era includes the launch of four secret spy satellites. One of those, a photo reconnaissance satellite, broke apart in early March after its successful deployment a week earlier by the crew of the shuttle Atlantis.
The recent difficulties experienced by the shuttle Columbia, perhaps, point out as well as any how the shuttle's complexity can disrupt scheduling. Its launch date slipped from April 26, to May 9 to May 16, primarily because of the accumulation of difficulties experienced by three previous missions this year. The May 16 date was postponed by two weeks when testing revealed a faulty coolant valve that was subsequently replaced while Columbia rested on the launch pad.
Then, on May 29, with just six hours left in one of the most trouble-free countdowns in the history of the shuttle program, Columbia sprouted a potentially disastrous fuel leak. After a week of careful analysis, shuttle engineers concluded the ship must be towed from its pad to a hangar where it can be disassembled to stop the mysterious leak. The specific cause still eludes engineers.
While policy analysts praise NASA for its caution, they do say the delays and reschedulings raise a nagging issue that has dogged the shuttle program throughout its existence. Can the shuttle become the workhorse originally envisioned by NASA? More specifically, can it handle the 20 or so launches required to assemble the space station Freedom over a four-year period starting in 1995?
The Bush administration has touted the shuttle and Freedom as the cornerstone of its plans for human exploration of Mars by 2019. Logsdon of George Washington University, who has tracked the nation's space effort since the Apollo program, believes it cannot be done without massive, new unmanned rockets and the addition of a new shuttle orbiter every three years.
The shuttle fleet has averaged just four missions a year since its maiden voyage - even when the Challenger launch is discounted and 1987 is excluded – not a single flight was attempted that year. "They have a technology which simply cannot do what it is supposed to do," says Duke University professor Alex Roland, who specializes in military history and the history of technology. "NASA has bet its whole future on the shuttle," says Roland. "They are more responsive to safety, but partially that is because they also know that if they lose another one very soon, it will probably be the end of the space program as we know it.”
(The Houston Chronicle, June 10, 1990; Countdown, July 1990 – edited)