FAILURE: Progress MS-04 - Soyuz-U - Baikonur - December 1, 2016

[ChrisGebhardt]

:(I wonder since the Russians are cutting back on their space program if the workers are losing faith and getting sloppy in their work and something in the control system was not correctly done??

Soyuz-U control system is produced in Ukraine. USA and NASA were instrumental in assuring this production notwithstanding the current situation in Ukraine.

Which is why this was the penultimate flight of Soyuz-U.  Last flight is scheduled -- as of now -- for 1 February 2017 with Progress 66.

[ChrisGebhardt]

Putting this here so we have a firm understanding of where we stand on ISS with consumables *if* Progress 65 is indeed lost (which is not confirmed in any way).

Note: This consumables chart does not account for HTV-6 next week, SpX-10 (NET mid- to late-January), Progress 66 (1 February), or Cygnus OA-7 (March).

[ZachS09]

Quick question:

Does HTV-6, SpX-10, or OA-7 have cargo for the Russian Orbital Segment?

I understand that HTV, Dragon, and Cygnus are not solely Russian, but it's an International Space Station, so why not have food and water for Zvezda or Zarya in those crafts?

[rpapo]

Quick question:

Does HTV-6, SpX-10, or OA-7 have cargo for the Russian Orbital Segment?

I understand that HTV, Dragon, and Cygnus are not solely Russian, but it's an International Space Station, so why not have food and water for Zvezda or Zarya in those crafts?

None of the above mentioned spacecraft can carry fuel for station reboost, so the Progress remains quite essential to station operations.

The ATV could do that, but is no more.  The Space Shuttle didn't transfer fuel to the ISS, but had thrusters powerful enough to perform station reboost, and did so regularly.

[Joachim]

NASA ordered no more ATV.

[JimO]

Some background may be useful from the Meridian-5 third stage failure on Dec 23, 2011, I just published a report on observations of that event here -- http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/misc/meridian_crash_2011_draft.pdf

Unlike Meridian-5, this time we cannot expect to see any visuals on vehicle events along the track since launch was so long after sunset, sun elevation angle was about -45 degrees along third stage burn track, so vehicle was in full dark. Fireballs on entry might be reported -- watching the UFO sites for bulletins there!

[ChrisGebhardt]

Quick question:

Does HTV-6, SpX-10, or OA-7 have cargo for the Russian Orbital Segment?

I understand that HTV, Dragon, and Cygnus are not solely Russian, but it's an International Space Station, so why not have food and water for Zvezda or Zarya in those crafts?

It's all negotiation.  They can all certainly carry food and water packs, but as mentioned above, only Progress can re-boost Station.  Remember, too, that Progress 64 is still docked to Station.

And *if* 65P is lost, there will certainly be a last minute re-planning of the internal cargo manifest for SpX-10.  Though it might be too late at this point to get anything more/new on HTV-6.

[tvg98]

"Shortly after the planned separation around nine minutes into the flight, NASA quoted the Russian mission control as confirming the deployment of navigation antennas but not solar arrays on the Progress MS-04. Shortly thereafter, Roskosmos confirmed that telemetry from the mission had been interrupted at L+383 seconds. Both agencies had no information on the fate of the spacecraft.

In the meantime, a large explosion in the sky over the Tuva Region of Russia was observed, followed by reports of ground shaking and falling debris." http://www.russianspaceweb.com/progress-ms-04.html

[input~2]

Обломки "Прогресса", предположительно, упали в Туве

Fragments of "Progress," presumably fell in Tuva.
https://twitter.com/SobiNewsCom/status/804364881831006208
[/font][/size]

[ZachS09]

"Shortly after the planned separation around nine minutes into the flight, NASA quoted the Russian mission control as confirming the deployment of navigation antennas but not solar arrays on the Progress MS-04. Shortly thereafter, Roskosmos confirmed that telemetry from the mission had been interrupted at L+383 seconds. Both agencies had no information on the fate of the spacecraft.

In the meantime, a large explosion in the sky over the Tuva Region of Russia was observed, followed by reports of ground shaking and falling debris." http://www.russianspaceweb.com/progress-ms-04.html

This might be more evidence of a failure.

[Flying Beaver]

Обломки "Прогресса", предположительно, упали в Туве

Fragments of "Progress," presumably fell in Tuva.
https://twitter.com/SobiNewsCom/status/804364881831006208
[/font][/size]

Could that be after one complete orbit...? Would explain at least the ROSCOSMOS report of antenna deploy.

One orbit say something around 50 by 200km. Reenters at perigee?

EDIT: would of happened 1/2 hour ago, per SatFlare. http://www.satflare.com/track.asp?q=progress#TOP

[ChrisGebhardt]

This is sounding like a two pronged issue.  It sounds like comm was lost with Soyuz-U at T+383seconds but ratty comm continued with Progress through its KURS antenna deployment.  If all contact was lost at T+383secs, there's no way they'd have antenna deployment confirmation -- unless that was a singal sent from Progress as the vehicle was breaking up... ?

[Navier–Stokes]

Anatoly Zak ‏@RussianSpaceWeb  · 9m9 minutes ago 
A potential crash site for #ProgressMS04 in full geographical context. DETAILS: http://www.russianspaceweb.com/progress-ms-04.html#launch …

[Flying Beaver]

A likely sighting of the troubled #Soyuz/#ProgressMS04 over city of Biysk in Southern Russia.

 -Anatoly Zak
https://twitter.com/RussianSpaceWeb/status/804371805024747524

[Nicolas PILLET]

but ratty comm continued with Progress through its KURS antenna deployment.

Comm antenna and Kurs antenna are two different things.

[Navier–Stokes]

Stephen Clark ‏@StephenClark1
 
MCC-Houston has told ISS commander Shane Kimbrough of Progress mishap, says Russians have sent Progress team home & formed State Commission

9:25 AM - 1 Dec 2016

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Is this really the 2nd to last Soyuz-U? The only other one known to be existing is scheduled to fly Progress MS-5 next February.

[ChrisGebhardt]

but ratty comm continued with Progress through its KURS antenna deployment.

Comm antenna and Kurs antenna are two different things.

Right.  But Roscomos said they received confirmation of KURS antenna deployment -- which would seemingly be inconsistent with "all telemetry/comms lost at T+383seconds" statements we're now seeing.

[ChrisGebhardt]

Is this really the 2nd to last Soyuz-U? The only other one known to be existing is scheduled to fly Progress MS-5 next February.

Yes.  Program was discontinued in April 2015 because of geo-political situation between Russia and Ukraine.

[ChrisGebhardt]

Per Twitter (Bill Harwood), Commander Shane Kimbrough has been informed of a Progress mishap and told that Roscosmos is forming a State Commission to investigate.  While no official statement has been made to the public, that language is pretty clear.  Progress 65 is gone.