SpaceX Falcon Heavy Demo - Discussion and Speculation

[Negan]

1.  Is ascent really the riskiest part of the lunar mission (assuming Dragon has been qualified on F9)? I would have thought reentry targeting, heat shield working at lunar velocities, and comms and GNC working above LEO would be the ones most in need of demonstration, but what do I know.

2.  I agree that this won't happen (for reasons of Dragon availability), so I'll stop arguing now. I just get annoyed when people don't include cost as an important factor in the decision, as I can assure you that in a for-profit business, it most assuredly is.

Costs are a big reason it isn't going to happen.

Fly a small demonstrator spacecraft that isn't a Dragon, it would be cheaper than all the one off mods.  Heat shield doesn't need a flight test.

Even if it were to fly, that does't mean a dedicated demo isn't going to or needs to happen.

Yes. We need to give Jim this one and see how the cards play out. I would have to assume this circumlunar full on Dragon demo launch is already part of the circumlunar mission so there should be confirmation once FH starts flying.

Edit: Anyway an extra FH launch is just more eye candy for us.

[DOCinCT]

Does there actually have to be a payload?  or at least one of any weight consequence?  A 2nd stage with a nose cap and some telemetry would be as valid a demo as one with a lot of mass (and it could easily hit earth escape velocity).
I would think the demo part is to show (1) a launch with 2 boosters and a central core, (2) non-destructive separation of the boosters from the core and (3) a successful simultaneous landing of both boosters at LZ-1.
OR do you need a payload equivalent mass to evaluate booster/core performance?

[AncientU]

So, does this delay open a window for a test/demo flight beyond low Earth orbit?
Would be nice to actually demonstrate the 'deep space' comms, radiation tolerance, etc. before heading out to Mars.  A one-month Dragon 2 trip to EML-2 would be a nice test.

There is nothing that can be learned by that

Maybe one could learn if FH/Dragon 2 was ready for crew...

My point still stands and is correct.

Agreed. Just as impractical as using a dedicated FH to do a full on demo of the circumlunar mission before the crewed one.

No, that is very practical and likely may happen.

Pick one...

[CameronD]

1.  Is ascent really the riskiest part of the lunar mission (assuming Dragon has been qualified on F9)? I would have thought reentry targeting, heat shield working at lunar velocities, and comms and GNC working above LEO would be the ones most in need of demonstration, but what do I know.

2.  I agree that this won't happen (for reasons of Dragon availability), so I'll stop arguing now. I just get annoyed when people don't include cost as an important factor in the decision, as I can assure you that in a for-profit business, it most assuredly is.

Costs are a big reason it isn't going to happen.

Fly a small demonstrator spacecraft that isn't a Dragon, it would be cheaper than all the one off mods.  Heat shield doesn't need a flight test.

I've said it before, but I'll say it again:  load up a big, bright, yellow School Bus. 

Besides being a few steps up from that wheel of cheese (presumably eaten by now?), putting a fully-instrumented school bus in orbit around the moon is sure to get world-wide attention besides being wayy cheaper and cooler than any REAL spacecraft ...even a demonstrator.

[sdsds]

Speculating about a more likely "mass simulator" payload would probably be more fun than speculating about an unlikely one.

What about flying a boiler plate multi-satellite dispenser? It wouldn't have to include any of the electronics; just validating the vibratory/acoustic behavior of the structure planned for this task would count as a certain amount of risk reduction (or at least mathematical model validation).

Or are they not far enough along on that part of their satellite delivery plan to yet have a dispenser structure in mind?

[intrepidpursuit]

I've been picturing a dispenser like the ones used for the OG launches but with satellites cast out of concrete. I'm sure that is unrealistic. I've heard of them using concrete before, but I'd imagine it is best under only compression forces.

[gongora]

It seems that many people want to have more free-ranging discussion about possibilities for the FH Demo than we normally encourage in a mission thread.  Please continue using this thread for your FH Demo discussion and speculation.  Later in the year we will create new mission threads that will stay more closely focused on whatever the actual mission ends up being.

[IainMcClatchie]

I've said it before, but I'll say it again:  load up a big, bright, yellow School Bus. 

...a fully-instrumented school bus...

I'm sorry, I just can't help myself.

I'll note that Type C busses, such as pictured below, are typically 10,600 to 13,400 kg, which (I think) means they could launch the school bus to the moon, if they were willing to lose the center core.  If they were willing to strip out the drivetrain (it won't be needed), they could get the center core back, too.

Massive bonus points for putting the bus into a Moon grazing orbit, with camera drones that ride near the bus but do not impact.  We can come up with a 1000 frame-per-second 4K camera to record the impact, which should make it possible to see multiple frames during collision.

[feynmanrules]

As someone above said, I'd send a Model S.

Falcon-wing doors, anyone?

Where we're going, we don't need roads.

[CameronD]

I've said it before, but I'll say it again:  load up a big, bright, yellow School Bus. 

...a fully-instrumented school bus...

I'm sorry, I just can't help myself.

I'll note that Type C busses, such as pictured below, are typically 10,600 to 13,400 kg, which (I think) means they could launch the school bus to the moon, if they were willing to lose the center core.  If they were willing to strip out the drivetrain (it won't be needed), they could get the center core back, too.

Massive bonus points for putting the bus into a Moon grazing orbit, with camera drones that ride near the bus but do not impact.  We can come up with a 1000 frame-per-second 4K camera to record the impact, which should make it possible to see multiple frames during collision.

Would that make it the first bus crash on the moon??

In decades to come, there could be money in tours to these historic sites:  "The junk pile over there is Russia's Luna 15 crash site.. and over the next hill we'll see SpaceX's yellow bus crash site..".
 

[georgegassaway]

I think launching a school bus would not be so much impressive as it would be as JOKE FODDER for comedians, and others not taking SpaceX very seriously either.   

As well las the visual image given for where priorities for education are, even though that would not be the intent, the likely unintended consequence (you know some would have a political field day with  that kind of stunt).

And ULA could go to town with ridiculing that vs. what they launch.

Just because you can launch something  that serves no real purpose, doesn’t mean it’s a good idea.

At any rate I don’t take the idea too seriously given the structural modifications that would need to be made for a bus to be launched sitting upright, as well as to be supported inside of the shroud when horizontal (rear of the bus would need massive reinforcement and hard points). Possible, but surely they could do something better, not as ripe for ridicule.

Hope that they do launch something kind of neat, but not along the lines of a  school bus.

[rsdavis9]

Is interplanetary out of the question?
Launch mass simulator to mars or whatever. Still validates fairing.
Just impact the planet(or smaller).
Interstellar?
 

[Jim]

Negan, matthewkantar and NewSpaceIsFun
This is for you, who wrongly thought I was contradicting myself, which I wasn't.  It is just another case of lack of understanding.

A Dragon 2/FH demo flight around the moon is likely needed before a manned mission. 

This has nothing to do with the delay for Red Dragon and doing a demo to EML, which is useless once the manned lunar mission occurs.

[JamesH65]

Negan, matthewkantar and NewSpaceIsFun
This is for you, who wrongly thought I was contradicting myself, which I wasn't.  It is just another case of lack of understanding.

A Dragon 2/FH demo flight around the moon is likely needed before a manned mission. 

This has nothing to do with the delay for Red Dragon and doing a demo to EML, which is useless once the manned lunar mission occurs.

Indeed. I was wondering where the statement that there was unlikely to be an unmanned practice mission round the moon first came from. Seems tome that would be an obviously thing to do.

When you take in to account they will intend to recover both the capsule, and the three boosters, cost is, relatively speaking, low. Just the second stage and interstage being lost.

[Basto]

Negan, matthewkantar and NewSpaceIsFun
This is for you, who wrongly thought I was contradicting myself, which I wasn't.  It is just another case of lack of understanding.

A Dragon 2/FH demo flight around the moon is likely needed before a manned mission. 

This has nothing to do with the delay for Red Dragon and doing a demo to EML, which is useless once the manned lunar mission occurs.

Indeed. I was wondering where the statement that there was unlikely to be an unmanned practice mission round the moon first came from. Seems tome that would be an obviously thing to do.

When you take in to account they will intend to recover both the capsule, and the three boosters, cost is, relatively speaking, low. Just the second stage and interstage being lost.

Agree that cost should be relatively low. But refurbishment of cores and Dragon isn't free.   There are also costs associated with the launch itself. All those people involved with launching the rocket still get paid the same whether it is a new core or not.

[Negan]

Agreed. Just as impractical as using a dedicated FH to do a full on demo of the circumlunar mission before the crewed one.

No, that is very practical and likely may happen.

Who's going to pay for it?

SpaceX. totes obvs.

Musk and Shotwell have both made it abundantly clear SpaceX only goes to the moon on someone else's dime. Now if the price that the two people are paying covers two FH missions plus a nice profit that is a great thing regardless.

[Jim]

Musk and Shotwell have both made it abundantly clear SpaceX only goes to the moon on someone else's dime. Now if the price that the two people are paying covers two FH missions plus a nice profit that is a great thing regardless.

No, the price don't have to cover two FH missions.  But for Spacex to supply the service, they will have to some how show that they can safely provide it and it is on their own dime. 

They aren't going to fly a manned mission to lunar distances without some kind of beyond LEO demo of the Dragon and a launch of a Dragon on FH.

[JasonAW3]

Negan, matthewkantar and NewSpaceIsFun
This is for you, who wrongly thought I was contradicting myself, which I wasn't.  It is just another case of lack of understanding.

A Dragon 2/FH demo flight around the moon is likely needed before a manned mission. 

This has nothing to do with the delay for Red Dragon and doing a demo to EML, which is useless once the manned lunar mission occurs.

Indeed. I was wondering where the statement that there was unlikely to be an unmanned practice mission round the moon first came from. Seems tome that would be an obviously thing to do.

When you take in to account they will intend to recover both the capsule, and the three boosters, cost is, relatively speaking, low. Just the second stage and interstage being lost.

Kind of an obvious test, really.  But wouldn't they need a larger second stage for a lunar rendezvous?  While we are talking a lower mass for a translunar injection flight, with only 2 people, would the mass be sufficiently low enough for the flyby and return?  It just seems to me that the mass margins would be kind of tight for such a flight with the current Falcon Heavy configuration.

[Negan]

Musk and Shotwell have both made it abundantly clear SpaceX only goes to the moon on someone else's dime. Now if the price that the two people are paying covers two FH missions plus a nice profit that is a great thing regardless.

No, the price don't have to cover two FH missions.  But for Spacex to supply the service, they will have to some how show that they can safely provide it and it is on their own dime. 

They aren't going to fly a manned mission to lunar distances without some kind of beyond LEO demo of the Dragon and a launch of a Dragon on FH.

So after a Red Dragon mission.

Edit: So my original statement about there not being a full on un-crewed test of the Dragon 2 and FH circumlunar mission still stands. A Red Dragon mission is not a circumlunar mission.

[dglow]

They aren't going to fly a manned mission to lunar distances without some kind of beyond LEO demo of the Dragon and a launch of a Dragon on FH.

That makes sense. And to clarify, your understanding is that any FH launch with Dragon won't count toward AF certification, as those flights must fly with the payload fairing. Correct?