Author Topic: SpaceX Falcon Heavy Demo - Discussion and Speculation (Read 243632 times)

pippin · « **Reply #200 on:** 03/19/2017 09:59 pm »

Sure. Given the kind of time it took Rockwell to make Challenger from the STA...

old_sellsword · « **Reply #201 on:** 03/19/2017 10:04 pm »

Quote from: pippin on 03/19/2017 09:59 pm

Sure. Given the kind of time it took Rockwell to make Challenger from the STA...

And at that point its really pointless to convert a modified Dragon 1 into a Dragon 2 when you could just have a real Dragon 2 ready by that point.

WmThomas · « **Reply #202 on:** 03/19/2017 10:05 pm »

Quote from: Roy_H on 03/19/2017 07:33 pm

Ever since Elon announced that they are going to send two people on a free-return around the Moon I have felt that this would change the FH demo mission from a mass simulator to LEO to sending a re-furbished Dragon on the same flight path around the Moon as planned for these two intrepid astronauts. Possibly the Dragon used for the pad abort.

Good suggestion. But not the pad-abort article. I don't think the free-return plan counts on using Super-Dracos or their fuel. If I'm right, it's better to use any recovered Dragon, like the CRS-10 Dragon that just landed. It has the heat shield and the connections for solar power, etc. A few upgrades, and it could fly lunar free-return.

It doesn't have to look like Dragon V2. It has to have the same basic equipment and structure.

MATTBLAK · « **Reply #203 on:** 03/19/2017 10:17 pm »

Quote from: gospacex on 03/19/2017 08:56 pm

Quote from: woods170 on 03/09/2017 08:58 am
Quote from: FutureSpaceTourist on 03/08/2017 09:52 pm
SpaceX are still saying FH demo flight this year:

Quote
SpaceX's Shotwell: Falcon Heavy to fly this year #satshow

https://twitter.com/chenry_sn/status/839590030511386625
The track-record of both Gwynne and Elon on delivering-on-promise is not all that good. Just sayin'...

As opposed to most other aerospace projects, which are remarkable to be always on schedule and on budget, right? JWST, rings any bells?

The JWST is an incredibly complex, almost Rube Goldberg affair - I'll be amazed if it works as advertised. But your point is still well-taken.

yokem55 · « **Reply #204 on:** 03/20/2017 02:56 pm »

Quote from: WmThomas on 03/19/2017 10:05 pm

Quote from: Roy_H on 03/19/2017 07:33 pm
Ever since Elon announced that they are going to send two people on a free-return around the Moon I have felt that this would change the FH demo mission from a mass simulator to LEO to sending a re-furbished Dragon on the same flight path around the Moon as planned for these two intrepid astronauts. Possibly the Dragon used for the pad abort.

Good suggestion. But not the pad-abort article. I don't think the free-return plan counts on using Super-Dracos or their fuel. If I'm right, it's better to use any recovered Dragon, like the CRS-10 Dragon that just landed. It has the heat shield and the connections for solar power, etc. A few upgrades, and it could fly lunar free-return.

It doesn't have to look like Dragon V2. It has to have the same basic equipment and structure.

It probably would need a dragon 2 trunk though to maintain power in a BBQ roll.

Steven Pietrobon · « **Reply #205 on:** 03/21/2017 08:59 am »

Quote from: yokem55 on 03/20/2017 02:56 pm

It probably would need a dragon 2 trunk though to maintain power in a BBQ roll.

The Dragon 2 trunk only has solar cells on one side, so it makes no difference in terms of power compared to the Dragon 1 trunk. There are also probably enough differences that it probably wouldn't be worthwhile trying to mate a Dragon 2 trunk to a Dragon 1 capsule. Also, who says Dragon 1 or 2 needs to have a BBQ mode? With Apollo it was necessary due to the possibility of AVCOAT cracking under a temperature difference. PICA-X may be strong enough that a BBQ mode is not necessary.

macpacheco · « **Reply #206 on:** 03/21/2017 05:59 pm »

This thread is about FH Demo mission.
This mission will NOT be a Dragon launch.
It needs to fly the FH fairing, which is a requirement for DoD/USAF certification.
This has been discussed on other threads. Please lets not repeat that here.

SX needs 3 successful FH launches with the fairing to produce enough data for DoD certification.
Its been already stated that SX intends to fly a mass simulator as the payload for now.

If a big heavy GEO bird customer were willing to put their satellite as payload for FH Demo, that would be a possibility. On one hand that brings revenue for that flight, but on the other hand it prevents SX from doing something like this:

Flying a mass simulator allows SX to demonstrate FH ultimate performance limits in its current (I'm going to guess Block IV capabilities). They could for instance load FH with the maximum mass it can put on super sync GTO trajectory (but with the perigee low enough the 2nd stage and mass simulator would re-enter within the first 2 orbits). Perhaps a mass simulator in the order of 15 tons.
The big deal about FH is to demonstrate DIVH type capabilities to GTO.

People wanting a Dragon on top of this mission are putting the carriage way ahead of the horses. SX needs $$$. Billions of $$$ to pursue its Mars vision. Eating up the DIVH market might produce a billion $$$ in profits which can then be used towards a mini ITS/ITS platforms. I'm particularly fond of a mini ITS stack, which would have a booster small enough such that when paired with a single Raptor 2nd stage would be a workhorse rocket to fully replace F9 and FH. Fully reusable.

sdsds · « **Reply #207 on:** 03/21/2017 07:57 pm »

Quote from: macpacheco on 03/21/2017 05:59 pm

This thread is about FH Demo mission.
This mission will NOT be a Dragon launch.
It needs to fly the FH fairing, which is a requirement for DoD/USAF certification.

Would you please review the way we know that Dragon cannot be flown under the fairing?

guckyfan · « **Reply #208 on:** 03/21/2017 08:11 pm »

Usually I would dismiss the notion to send a Dragon. But one thing is weird. They have always sent a payload on first flights. This time it looks like they don't want to do that. That begs the question, why?

I think they are planning something special, not just any mass simulator. What it is I have no idea.

They need 3 flights with fairing for Airforce certification. Do they need the first flight with fairing to do the Airforce demo flight as flight 2? If not, they get 3 flights with fairing soon enough. The first being the Airforce demo flight.

ugordan · « **Reply #209 on:** 03/21/2017 08:14 pm »

Quote from: guckyfan on 03/21/2017 08:11 pm

They have always sent a payload on first flights.

Not on F9-01.

guckyfan · « **Reply #210 on:** 03/21/2017 08:31 pm »

Quote from: ugordan on 03/21/2017 08:14 pm

Quote from: guckyfan on 03/21/2017 08:11 pm
They have always sent a payload on first flights.

Not on F9-01.

Great example.

It carried a Dragon, if only a boilerplate capsule that did not separate from the second stage.

ugordan · « **Reply #211 on:** 03/21/2017 08:38 pm »

Quote from: guckyfan on 03/21/2017 08:31 pm

Quote from: ugordan on 03/21/2017 08:14 pm
Quote from: guckyfan on 03/21/2017 08:11 pm
They have always sent a payload on first flights.

Not on F9-01.

Great example. It carried a Dragon, if only a boilerplate capsule that did not separate from the second stage.

A pressure shell mimicking the outer mold line and it didn't separate from the 2nd stage. Hardly a "payload" and hardly a "Dragon". If that's your idea of a payload, then the FH mass simulator also constitutes a "payload".

guckyfan · « **Reply #212 on:** 03/21/2017 08:42 pm »

They did something special with that flight. It was not just a mass simulator. Just as I suspect they will do something special with this flight.

ugordan · « **Reply #213 on:** 03/21/2017 08:45 pm »

Quote from: guckyfan on 03/21/2017 08:42 pm

They did something special with that flight.

What? Putting the only thing on top they could have put given that the 5m fairing was never ready and available on v1.0. A Dragon-shaped aeroshell, that is something special?

guckyfan · « **Reply #214 on:** 03/21/2017 08:48 pm »

Quote from: ugordan on 03/21/2017 08:45 pm

Dragon-shaped aeroshell, that is something special?

Very much so. It was a statement.

gongora · « **Reply #215 on:** 03/21/2017 08:52 pm »

Unless SpaceX announces they're flying a Dragon on this mission, the Dragon talk is really off-topic. It might be more appropriate in the circum-lunar flight thread if that's the reason ya'll are wanting it to happen.

Steven Pietrobon · « **Reply #216 on:** 03/22/2017 06:03 am »

I think speculation of what the payload is, is definitely on topic! All SpaceX need to do to fly a Dragon 1 inside a fairing is to build an adaptor from the normal spacecraft mount to the Dragon trunk. It doesn't have to be a Lunar flyby mission. All it needs to do is a high speed re-entry so as to certify the heat shield for the future Lunar flyby mission. Makes a lot more sense to me then flying a mass simulator.

Kaputnik · « **Reply #217 on:** 03/22/2017 07:19 am »

Quote from: guckyfan on 03/21/2017 08:48 pm

Quote from: ugordan on 03/21/2017 08:45 pm
Dragon-shaped aeroshell, that is something special?

Very much so. It was a statement.

A statement that their first four manifested flights were all Dragon?

guckyfan · « **Reply #218 on:** 03/22/2017 07:41 am »

Quote from: Kaputnik on 03/22/2017 07:19 am

Quote from: guckyfan on 03/21/2017 08:48 pm
Quote from: ugordan on 03/21/2017 08:45 pm
Dragon-shaped aeroshell, that is something special?

Very much so. It was a statement.

A statement that their first four manifested flights were all Dragon?

The statement "We are SpaceX, we will put people in space". To get back to this thread title I expect that this flight will make a similar statement, though I have no idea what that will be. A Dragon around the moon, under a fairing or not, would be that statement. The fact that they have offers to fly commercial payloads but seem unwilling to do that supports my idea somewhat.

ugordan · « **Reply #219 on:** 03/22/2017 08:11 am »

Quote from: guckyfan on 03/22/2017 07:41 am

The fact that they have offers to fly commercial payloads but seem unwilling to do that supports my idea somewhat.

How does it support your idea? They said themselves that having a customer would only serve to complicate their inaugural launch campaign. Here you are, suggesting that's EXACTLY what they'll do with Dragon around the moon. By virtue of having to essentially launch a Dragon attached to the normal 2nd stage payload adapter brings a host of design work that they really *don't* have the time to do right now. Their schedule is overcrowded, their launch site(s) bottlenecked, they are still recovering from the recent failure and working toward the "final" F9 version, Block 5.

If you really think they have either time or resources to devote to integrating a new Dragon configuration (inside a fairing, as *that* is what USAF wants demonstrated), I'd love to hear your opinion on why Red Dragon was just delayed 2 more years?