SpaceX Falcon Heavy Demo - Discussion and Speculation

[IanThePineapple]

They can't due anything till after June due to Scrub Jay nesting season March - June. The Jays are extremely endangered.

It is not yet March. If they clear the area before march there is no risk of them nesting there and they can start laying the concrete through nesting season.

They have about 2.5 weeks to clear the area then, they better hurry!

[meekGee]

So...

Given today's announcement, and since FH won't fly until after LC-40 is back - I think the odds of the payload being a used Dragon just went up a bit.

[mikelepage]

Actually, IF your balls are big enough you can land both boosters on the single pad and the center core on the ship.

Assuming the approvals and permits are in place I dont see any reason they cant pour a concrete pad before May.

I think they do need a second land pad.  Re-watching the CRS-10 landing at LZ-1 suggests to me that the outflow from a second booster coming down half a pad-width from the first would risk the first booster getting pinged by rocks/shrapnel.

So...

Given today's announcement, and since FH won't fly until after LC-40 is back - I think the odds of the payload being a used Dragon just went up a bit.

A circumlunar demo flight, with a reused Dragon, and 3 boosters recovered?  Aside from being an awesome tech demo and statement of intent, that would have a huge impact on folks at NASA.  Perhaps they are purposely leaving the announcement of the demo flight mission profile until the new administration has a chance to make some big decisions about NASA's future, as a courtesy.

[rpapo]

Thinking about this on my way in to work this morning, it seems to me that the most logical and practical use of the FH Demo Mission, now, would be to loft a Dragon high enough to give the heat shield a proper test with reentry at nearly escape velocity.  Apollo did the same thing, and so has Orion.  Dragon should too.  Before launching people to the moon.

Now if they want it to go high enough to loop around the Moon first, that would be even better.

[Ben the Space Brit]

Thinking about this on my way in to work this morning, it seems to me that the most logical and practical use of the FH Demo Mission, now, would be to loft a Dragon high enough to give the heat shield a proper test with reentry at nearly escape velocity.  Apollo did the same thing, and so has Orion.  Dragon should too.  Before launching people to the moon.

There is no reason whatsoever not to fly a DragonLab (with as many BLEO experiments that they can get from academia in the pressure cabin) on a free-return trajectory. That proves everything in advance of any crewed mission. So long as there is a data downlink, it's almost risk-free, even if a refurbished Dragon's TPS would have a measurably increased chance of failure under the thermal loads of lunar return.

[Johnnyhinbos]

Just for clarity, when folks refer to a Dragon on FH, I believe the real reference is to D2. Subtle distinction but salient nonetheless as D2 has yet to fly and therefore have a great many unknowns - such as superdracos, new heat shield, ...

[Johnnyhinbos]

With respect to LZ1, I agree that SpaceX has refined booster return enough to land offset from center so as to accommodate a pair of returned boosters. However, even ignoring two simultaneous landing burns, what about the re-entry and descent. I mean, you will have two of these many busters flying back to basically the same point at incredible speeds. Lots of opportunity for inadvertent interaction...

[Jarnis]

With respect to LZ1, I agree that SpaceX has refined booster return enough to land offset from center so as to accommodate a pair of returned boosters. However, even ignoring two simultaneous landing burns, what about the re-entry and descent. I mean, you will have two of these many busters flying back to basically the same point at incredible speeds. Lots of opportunity for inadvertent interaction...

They are adding two more pads next to LZ1. Plans already exist. Good bet would be that these pads will materialize before the first flight of Falcon Heavy.

[Ben the Space Brit]

Just for clarity, when folks refer to a Dragon on FH, I believe the real reference is to D2.

Understood but a Dragon Mk1 could still prove the Falcon Heavy's ability to accurately insert into trans-lunar trajectory. Lacking a surprise announcement about an MPS in development for the Mk2, high accuracy in trajectory insertion is a vital capability to demonstrate.

On the matter of other issues, how hard would it be to re-coat a Dragon with the Dragon-2's SPAM and PICA-X formulation?

[rpapo]

How hard would it be to re-coat a Dragon with the Dragon-2's SPAM and PICA-X formulation?

Do we even know if those have changed?  AFAIK, Dragon-1 has been coated with SPAM and has used a PICA-X heat shield from day one.  We've been hearing about the qualities of PICA-X and how SpaceX improved on the original NASA formula since the day of the Great Cheese Delivery.

[sghill]

I don't know who that other guy is yet coming on the trip, but I hope he can put up with my snoring!

[Proponent]

I wonder whether SpaceX might worry that a circumlunar Dragon flight, cool though it would be, if it's possible, would embarrass NASA.  Not a good idea to embarrass your largest customer.

SpaceX to Send Privately Crewed Dragon Spacecraft Beyond the Moon Next Year

Well, I got that one wrong!

Even if SpaceX does not succeed, it's still embarrassing for NASA, at least for the time being.

POSTSCRIPT:  I think I understand why I was wrong.  At least I learned something.

[Ben the Space Brit]

To NASA's credit, they're putting on a brave face and making it sound like it's at least partially their idea.

[TripD]

With respect to LZ1, I agree that SpaceX has refined booster return enough to land offset from center so as to accommodate a pair of returned boosters. However, even ignoring two simultaneous landing burns, what about the re-entry and descent. I mean, you will have two of these many busters flying back to basically the same point at incredible speeds. Lots of opportunity for inadvertent interaction...

Seems that just a slight pause in initiating one of the booster return burns would give plenty of distance between the boosters.

[wannamoonbase]

With respect to LZ1, I agree that SpaceX has refined booster return enough to land offset from center so as to accommodate a pair of returned boosters. However, even ignoring two simultaneous landing burns, what about the re-entry and descent. I mean, you will have two of these many busters flying back to basically the same point at incredible speeds. Lots of opportunity for inadvertent interaction...

Seems that just a slight pause in initiating one of the booster return burns would give plenty of distance between the boosters.

Except you wouldn't want to do that if you are going 1+ kilometer per second down range. 

There are plenty of ways to manage the return trajectories to keep separation. 

[dglow]

Will the sonic booms be a concern for the returning boosters?

[PahTo]

Will the sonic booms be a concern for the returning boosters?

How so?  One booster returning generates two or three (my bro was at KARS on Feb 19 and reported three), so two returning will generate four or more.  Shouldn't be a big deal, either to each other or the surrounding communities...

[mme]

Will the sonic booms be a concern for the returning boosters?

They are accounted for in the EAS.

Edit: Nevermind.  I misunderstood the point of the question. (facepalm)

[meekGee]

Will the sonic booms be a concern for the returning boosters?

How so?  One booster returning generates two or three (my bro was at KARS on Feb 19 and reported three), so two returning will generate four or more.  Shouldn't be a big deal, either to each other or the surrounding communities...

Plus, if they fly in a precision formation, they'll stay out of each other's shock cones.  (If they can fly that precisely)

[andrewsdanj]

As well as a precise formation, I'm pretty sure the boosters have quite a bit of crossrange capability. They could probably fly trajectories that are many miles apart in 3-D space, one could return slightly more lofted and arrive many seconds later etc., there are conceivably many ways to deconflict the incoming candles.