Author Topic: UPDATES - Hurricane Matthew - Impact on Cape/KSC Facilities  (Read 36101 times)

Online Chris Bergin

This is an update only thread for links and updates on Hurricane Matthew's impact on the Cape and KSC facilities.

For previous updates and discussion, please refer to this thread:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41367.0 - which will continue as a discussion thread.

Article for this hurricane - which will be updated during and after the hurricane:
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/10/ksccape-hurcon-alert-matthew/

Please only post updates in this thread. Please add relevant links, updates, etc.

I hope everyone is safe and that the property damage is as minimal as possible.
« Last Edit: 10/07/2016 01:44 AM by Chris Bergin »

Offline Orbiter

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00z models shifted somewhat east.
Attended space missions: STS-114, STS-124, STS-128, STS-135, Atlas V "Curiosity", Delta IV Heavy NROL-15, Atlas V MUOS-2, Delta IV Heavy NROL-37, Falcon 9 CRS-9, Falcon 9 JCSAT-16, Atlas V GOES-R, Falcon 9 SES-11, Falcon Heavy Demo.

Offline Rocket Rancher

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Port Canaveral Web Cam is up and running;

http://www.portcanaveralwebcam.com/
"In God We Trust ... All Others Bring Data"

Offline rayleighscatter

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NOAA has three weather buoys/stations close to Cape Canaveral which should keep providing data through the storm. The last link could possibly be lost with high water though.

20 nautical miles east of KSC http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009

Just outside Port Canaveral http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41113

Port Canaveral at the Trident Pier (land based) http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8721604


Offline Targeteer

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45th SW Facebook post

Sharks,

We are about 13 hours from the eye of Hurricane Matthew being on top of us. Command and control elements for both Patrick and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station are together on Kennedy Space Center to ride out the storm. We also have additional command and control elements postured in Orlando and a Hurricane Recovery Teams for Patrick AFB prepositioned at Avon Park in Highlands Co., Fla.

We've already seen and felt some of the effects of the storm with wind and rain so being smart and being safe will remain interchangeable terms as we weather this storm. If you live on the barrier islands you should be gone by now. If you live on the other side of the causeways, I ask that you too remain safe if you remained and will ride out the storm from your homes. The President recently declared a Federal State of Emergency for Florida so we all are planning for the worse but hoping for a manageable outcome here.

We will run 24-hour operations throughout the storm cycle and are working hard to let you know what we know as this event continues to develop.

During any significant event there's always a strong rumor mill, however, here is where you'll receive ground truth. Any official information regarding PAFB/CCAFS can be found here with shortened updates on the Hurricane Emergency Information line at 1-800-470-7232.

Stay safe, stay strong...

Shark 1
Brig Gen Wayne Monteith
45th Space Wing Commander
Best quote heard during an inspection, "I was unaware that I was the only one who was aware."

Offline Lee Jay

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Eye now clearly to the east of the previously generated path prediction.

Offline psloss

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Latest from the Nat'l Hurricane Ctr

From the discussion:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/070257.shtml
Quote
HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

The satellite appearance of Matthew has improved during the past
several hours, with an eye embedded within a more circular central
dense overcast and an increase in the outer banding.  Reports from
a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and coastal radar data show the
presence of centric eyewalls with diameters of about 8 and 60 n mi
respectively.  The NOAA aircraft earlier reported a minimum pressure
of 937 mb, and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter just reported
estimated surface winds of 109 kt from the SFMR and a pressure of
939 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is 115 kt.

The initial motion is 325/11 kt. For the next 24-48 hours, Matthew
should move around the western end of the subtropical ridge, with
the motion gradually turning northward and then northeastward.
During this time, the center of the guidance envelope and the
various consensus models have shifted a little to the east. However,
the ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET continue to suggest the possibility of the
hurricane making landfall in Florida and then moving near the coasts
of Georgia and South Carolina.  This part of the forecast is nudged
a little to the east and lies between the model consensus and the
previous forecast. After 48 hours, a mid- to upper-level ridge is
forecast to build north and west of Matthew, and the track guidance
forecasts a southeasterly to southerly motion in response. While
there is still a large spread, the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET are in
better agreement that Matthew should move south between the ridge
and Hurricane Nicole to the east.  This part of the forecast follows
this guidance and lies between the GFS and ECMWF.

During the next 12-24 hours, Matthew will likely weaken a little as
it undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle.  After that time, it is
expected to encounter strong southwesterly vertical shear, and later
in the forecast period dry air is likely to entrain into the
cyclone.  This combination should cause steady weakening, and
Matthew is forecast to drop below hurricane strength by 72 hours.
The new intensity forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS
model.
« Last Edit: 10/07/2016 03:06 AM by psloss »

Offline Orbiter

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Looks like the major winds and the eye are going to stay offshore barring any sudden deviations to the west looking at the radar and data coming from the Hurricane Hunters. The storm surge on the other hand...
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Offline Lee Jay

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The new prediction indeed keeps the eye center just off-shore, but the central area of strongest winds would still brush the cape if it ends up in this location, just not on that strongest front-right corner.

Still a very strong storm and still with very serious consequences.  And it could still turn.

Offline Targeteer

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45 SW Facebook post

Water info:

The interconnect between Melbourne and the barrier island, and Cocoa and the barrier island, will remain open as long as weather conditions allow technicians to access the system.

When this is no longer possible, the interconnect will be closed to preserve system integrity based on the high likelihood of significant system breach on the island.

Beachside and barrier island communities and Merritt Island will continue to be served through existing storage facilities and booster pumps on the island as long as that supply lasts and there is no system breach.

Island residents are encouraged to conserve water to maintain supply and availability for fire protective services.
Best quote heard during an inspection, "I was unaware that I was the only one who was aware."

Offline mrhuggy

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Re: UPDATES - Hurricane Matthew - Impact on Cape/KSC Facilities
« Reply #10 on: 10/07/2016 06:49 AM »
Latest NHC Update Currently Cat 3 with sustained winds up to 120mph

Quote

000
WTNT34 KNHC 070559
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  36A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING CLOSER TO THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 79.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry
Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
* Boca Raton to South Santee River
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* North of South Santee River to Surf City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Anclote River

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and in the Carolinas
should monitor the progress of Matthew.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
by NOAA Doppler weather radars and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 79.7 West.
Matthew is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn
toward the north-northwest is expected later today, and a turn
toward the north is expected tonight or Saturday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Matthew will be moving near or over the east
coast of the Florida peninsula through tonight, and near or over the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Although some additional
weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, Matthew is expected
to be a powerful category 3 hurricane as it moves near the coast of
Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). During the past hour, a wind gust to 70 mph (113
km/h) was reported at Vero Beach, Florida, and a gust to 60 mph
occurred at Melbourne, Florida.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions should diminish over portions of the
northwestern Bahamas this morning.

Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane
warning area in Florida during the next several hours and will
spread northward within the warning area through today.  Tropical
storm conditions will continue to spread northward in the warning
area along the Florida east coast today.

Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward in the warning
area in Georgia and South Carolina tonight and Saturday with
tropical storm conditions expected later today.

Winds increase rapidly in elevation in a tropical cyclone.
Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at
the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one
Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area in the Carolinas on tonight and Saturday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including
portions of the St. Johns River...7 to 11 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina...4 to 6 ft
Boca Raton to Sebastian Inlet, Florida...4 to 6 ft
South Santee River, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, North Carolina...2
to 4 ft
Virginia Key to Boca Raton, Florida...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  There is a danger of life-
threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida
east coast, the Georgia coast, and the South Carolina coast from
Boca Raton, Florida, to South Santee River, South Carolina.
There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the
next 48 hours from north of South Santee River, South Carolina, to
Cape Fear, North Carolina. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017.  The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL:  Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

The northern Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
The Atlantic coast of the United States from Central Florida to
eastern North Carolina...6 to 12 inches with isolated totals near
15 inches along the coasts

TORNADOES:  An isolated tornado or two is possible along the
east-central Florida coast tonight.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days,
and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the
southeast U.S. coast through the weekend.  These swells will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: UPDATES - Hurricane Matthew - Impact on Cape/KSC Facilities
« Reply #11 on: 10/07/2016 09:28 AM »
Quote
William Harwood
‏@cbs_spacenews

Matthew/SpaceCoast: Highest winds at the Kennedy Space Center so far: 82 mph

https://twitter.com/cbs_spacenews/status/784321477344583681

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: UPDATES - Hurricane Matthew - Impact on Cape/KSC Facilities
« Reply #12 on: 10/07/2016 09:30 AM »
BBC report an hour ago:

Quote
Western eyewall' nears Cape Canaveral
Posted at 9:33

Hurricane Matthew has moved further north and is travelling with maximum sustained winds of 120mph.

The "Western edge of Matthew's eye wall" is approaching Cape Canaveral, the National Hurricane Center says.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-us-canada-37577478

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: UPDATES - Hurricane Matthew - Impact on Cape/KSC Facilities
« Reply #13 on: 10/07/2016 09:50 AM »
Quote
Andrew Hagen ‏@AndrewHagen 33m33 minutes ago

122 kts at 2000 ft just off cape canaveral

https://twitter.com/AndrewHagen/status/784321346322903040
« Last Edit: 10/07/2016 09:50 AM by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: UPDATES - Hurricane Matthew - Impact on Cape/KSC Facilities
« Reply #14 on: 10/07/2016 09:57 AM »
Quote
Eric Berger ‏@SciGuySpace 6m6 minutes ago

Hurricane Matthew's eye just east of Cape Canaveral. Weakened a bit to 120mph. Spared worst case scenario, but significant impacts likely.

https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/784329727049805824

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: UPDATES - Hurricane Matthew - Impact on Cape/KSC Facilities
« Reply #15 on: 10/07/2016 10:24 AM »
Quote
James Dean ‏@flatoday_jdean 16m16 minutes ago

116-person NASA, Air Force, contractor team consolidated in KSC's Launch Control Center. Winds now 90 mph. Rough but lighter than forecast.

https://twitter.com/flatoday_jdean/status/784334488847265792

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: UPDATES - Hurricane Matthew - Impact on Cape/KSC Facilities
« Reply #16 on: 10/07/2016 10:36 AM »
Quote
William Harwood ‏@cbs_spacenews 1m1 minute ago

Matthew/SpaceCoast: Kennedy Space Center reports some power outages but no major damage; sustained winds of 103 mph expected, gusts higher

https://twitter.com/cbs_spacenews/status/784341306336161792

Offline Jarnis

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Re: UPDATES - Hurricane Matthew - Impact on Cape/KSC Facilities
« Reply #17 on: 10/07/2016 10:42 AM »
Approx 06:30 local, webcam-that-should-not-be-named showed Port Canaveral completely dark, with the exception of floodlights on ASDS and lights on the one tugboat that is camping out the storm near the ASDS, so the area seems to have lost power.

Webcam itself showed offline ten minutes later - perhaps ran out of UPS battery power?

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Re: UPDATES - Hurricane Matthew - Impact on Cape/KSC Facilities
« Reply #18 on: 10/07/2016 10:45 AM »
George Diller was just on the phone with weather channel. Confirms GOES-R is doing well, elevated off the floor, in a blast proof room with a tent over it.

Damage so far as KSC has just been power outages, Wont be able to see for sure until daylight.

Buildings rated for 105mph, newer ones for 130mph. VAB for 125mph.
« Last Edit: 10/07/2016 10:45 AM by Mapperuo »
- Aaron

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: UPDATES - Hurricane Matthew - Impact on Cape/KSC Facilities
« Reply #19 on: 10/07/2016 11:23 AM »
Quote
William Harwood ‏@cbs_spacenews 13m13 minutes ago

Matthew/SpaceCoast: 107-mph gust recored at the Cape; Matthew still a Cat-3 storm, although NWS forecaster here expects it to weaken

https://twitter.com/cbs_spacenews/status/784350155059367936

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