Author Topic: Hurricane Matthew - Impact on the Cape - DISCUSSION THREAD  (Read 75800 times)

Offline mrhuggy

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Currently Hurricane Mathew is moving up over Haiti and Cuba as a Cat 3/4 Hurricane. It looks like it may have major impact along the east coast from Florida to North Carolina. There is potential for Tropical to Severe Hurricane weather in the cape area 100 knot winds and heavy rain.

They could be a lot of damage to the infrastructure, building, launchers and satellites.  I was wondering what sort of contingencies that would be in place.

Picture of Lastest GFS run at 12:00 UTC
« Last Edit: 10/07/2016 01:04 AM by Chris Bergin »

Offline Jim

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« Last Edit: 10/03/2016 11:54 PM by Jim »

Offline Lee Jay

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Re: Hurricane Matthew - Impact on the Cape
« Reply #2 on: 10/04/2016 12:51 AM »
Something to watch though.  20-30% change of hurricane force winds and a similar chance of rain exceeding 4".

Of course, the 20-30% in the other direction is light wind and some waves.

Offline Orbiter

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Re: Hurricane Matthew - Impact on the Cape
« Reply #3 on: 10/04/2016 10:59 AM »
5:00am track from the National Hurricane Center has shifted to be more in line with the GFS/ECMWF and has a major hurricane just off the coast by Friday morning. Cape Canaveral and the East Coast of Florida could experience hurricane conditions if this were to occur.

Note: It's important not to look at the center line of the track. Yesterday morning only the western edge of the cone was off the tip of Cape Canaveral, which is about where the center line is. The forecast is an incredibly complicated and dynamic one with a lot of variables and *will* change.
« Last Edit: 10/04/2016 11:07 AM by Orbiter »
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Offline mrhuggy

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Re: Hurricane Matthew - Impact on the Cape
« Reply #4 on: 10/04/2016 12:07 PM »
5:00am track from the National Hurricane Center has shifted to be more in line with the GFS/ECMWF and has a major hurricane just off the coast by Friday morning. Cape Canaveral and the East Coast of Florida could experience hurricane conditions if this were to occur.

Note: It's important not to look at the center line of the track. Yesterday morning only the western edge of the cone was off the tip of Cape Canaveral, which is about where the center line is. The forecast is an incredibly complicated and dynamic one with a lot of variables and *will* change.

There is wide range of uncertainty  this will reduce over time as we get a more accurate picture of what is happening, one thing to note is the models like GFS and ECWMF have been shifting the storm westward on every run due to a strengthening high pressure to the east over the Atlantic. It still looks lie to will past by along the coast and come ashore South or North Carolina, still sustained winds at 70-90 mph along the coast of florida will do a lot of damge.

Offline Jim

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Re: Hurricane Matthew - Impact on the Cape
« Reply #5 on: 10/04/2016 01:43 PM »
KSC went to Huron IV

Offline MarsMethanogen

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Re: Hurricane Matthew - Impact on the Cape
« Reply #6 on: 10/04/2016 01:52 PM »
KSC went to Huron IV
Am I the only one that doesn't know what "Huron IV" means?

Online Almurray1958

Re: Hurricane Matthew - Impact on the Cape
« Reply #7 on: 10/04/2016 02:13 PM »
Possibly Hurricane prep status  Level  IV:   http://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/pdf/153728main_hurricane-plan.pdf  (this seems to be a few years old but has the expected 72 hour conditions and site preparations)
- Al Murray

Online Thorny

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Re: Hurricane Matthew - Impact on the Cape
« Reply #8 on: 10/04/2016 02:27 PM »
KSC went to Huron IV
Am I the only one that doesn't know what "Huron IV" means?

Typo for Hurcon. Hurricane Condition.

Online edkyle99

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Re: Hurricane Matthew - Impact on the Cape
« Reply #9 on: 10/04/2016 06:18 PM »
Brevard County, including the Cape and KSC, is now included as the northern part of the Hurricane Watch zone.   I think this went into effect at 11:00 AM EDT today (10/04/16).

"A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous."  (National Hurricane Center)


 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 10/04/2016 06:22 PM by edkyle99 »

Offline Archibald

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Re: Hurricane Matthew - Impact on the Cape
« Reply #10 on: 10/04/2016 06:27 PM »
Hurcon

NASA certainly has jargon for everything in the known universe :p
« Last Edit: 10/04/2016 06:28 PM by Archibald »
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Offline Targeteer

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Re: Hurricane Matthew - Impact on the Cape
« Reply #11 on: 10/04/2016 07:06 PM »
from the 45th SW Facebook page

45TH SPACE WING ENTERS HURRICANE CONDITION IV

PATRICK AIR FORCE BASE, Fla. -- The 45th Space Wing has entered Hurricane Condition IV (HURCON IV) in preparation for Hurricane Matthew. HURCON IV indicates surface winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph) could arrive in the area of the base within 96 hours.

During HURCON IV, specialized response teams at Patrick Air Force Base and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station are recalled and briefed on the status of the storm. Teams will begin disconnecting electrical power to non-essential facilities and start preparing facilities for the possible arrival of the storm.

Wing leadership has initiated a "recall" notification of all base personnel and units are currently conducting 100 percent accountability checks of all assigned members, to include tenant units and families of deployed members.

Base personnel and residents should take action to prepare for the possible arrival of hurricane-force winds. These actions include the potential for evacuation of the base and all barrier islands. Wing leadership is coordinating preparation and response operations with Brevard County and NASA emergency management operations centers.

The Patrick AFB Medical Clinic currently has limited appointments for acute medical needs only. Urgent pharmacy needs can be filled from a civilian pharmacy. Pharmacy and medical care questions can be directed to Express Scripts at 1-866-363-8779 or Humana Military HealthCare Services at 1-800-444-5445.

Other facilities on base, such as the commissary, Base Exchange, Child Development Center, Youth Center and Riverside Dining Facility are open. More information will be announced as it becomes available.

For more information and updates, visit www.patrick.af.mil,
check back here.

Additional information can be found at:
http://www.brevardcounty.us/EmergencyManagement/Preparedness
http://www.floridadisaster.org/index.asp
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
http://www.patrick.af.mil/Units/Hurricane-Information
https://www.ready.gov/hurricanes
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Offline Danderman

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Re: Hurricane Matthew - Impact on the Cape
« Reply #12 on: 10/04/2016 07:17 PM »
The projected track has shifted slightly to the west, making it more likely that the Cape will be impacted by high winds.

Offline Orbiter

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Re: Hurricane Matthew - Impact on the Cape
« Reply #13 on: 10/04/2016 07:19 PM »
12z ECMWF now showing a hurricane landfall over the Cape. Ouch.
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Offline Targeteer

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Re: Hurricane Matthew - Impact on the Cape
« Reply #14 on: 10/04/2016 07:21 PM »
Hurcon

NASA certainly has jargon for everything in the known universe :p

HURCON is an Air Force/DOD acronym.  The bases in the Pacific see them the most because hurricanes/typhoons are more common threats.
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Offline Targeteer

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Re: Hurricane Matthew - Impact on the Cape
« Reply #15 on: 10/04/2016 07:36 PM »
The ATC radar at Guantanamo is still working and has an amazing image of the eye.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=gmo&product=N0R&loop=yes
« Last Edit: 10/04/2016 11:10 PM by Targeteer »
Best quote heard during an inspection, "I was unaware that I was the only one who was aware."

Offline Lee Jay

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Re: Hurricane Matthew - Impact on the Cape
« Reply #16 on: 10/04/2016 08:29 PM »
12z ECMWF now showing a hurricane landfall over the Cape. Ouch.

This.

Thursday night into Friday it could get really ugly (3 foot surge, 1+ foot of rain, 70mph+ surface winds) - or not if the storm goes just a tad to the east.

Offline RanulfC

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Re: Hurricane Matthew - Impact on the Cape
« Reply #17 on: 10/04/2016 09:09 PM »
Hurcon

NASA certainly has jargon for everything in the known universe :p

HURCON is an Air Force/DOD acronym.  The bases in the Pacific see them the most because hurricanes/typhoons are more common threats.

My first assignment was Eglin AFB Florida and they assigned me the HURCON ride-out team, (single and living in the dorms) but on the upside I got to get APC driver qualified. Had it on my license for almost 20 year even though my last refresher was like 18 years previously :)

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Offline Mapperuo

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Re: Hurricane Matthew - Impact on the Cape
« Reply #18 on: 10/04/2016 09:21 PM »


Views of Hurricane Matthew with the new HD external cameras on ISS.
- Aaron

Offline AS_501

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Re: Hurricane Matthew - Impact on the Cape
« Reply #19 on: 10/04/2016 09:26 PM »
Somewhere I read that the VAB is designed to withstand winds up to 125 mph, and the most that it has sustained thus far is about 90 mph with Hurricane Frances in 2004.  Over 800 exterior panels were blown off during Frances.