Full diameter shortened ITS as FH replacement?

[Robotbeat]

Someone should invent self-walking goal posts.

[KelvinZero]

And everybody stop talking as though ITS is a given.  A reusable first stage has yet to fly.  And even if it does, 1, 2 or 3 times stills doesn't prove the effort.

Speaking for myself, the motivation for threads like this is that we don't accept ITS as a given. The plan seems to be "F9R, underpants, ITS". I feel like I am watching a shell game where is Elon Musk is moving around apparently real pieces: the Raptor development and that massive 12 meter tank thing, and wondering what the trick is.

It is not that ITS has to be fake either. That could be the honestly intended end point, but what happens in between exactly? I just keep expecting something to pop out and fill in the "underpants" stage, even if it is a bit smaller than advertised. 

[guckyfan]

It is not that ITS has to be fake either. That could be the honestly intended end point, but what happens in between exactly? I just keep expecting something to pop out and fill in the "underpants" stage, even if it is a bit smaller than advertised. 

The timeframe given is much too short for a useful fake. It could be a trick if the timeframe for first hardware would be 2025 or beyond. But the timeframe is real hardware before the end of this decade and we are near the end of 2016.

[KelvinZero]

It is not that ITS has to be fake either. That could be the honestly intended end point, but what happens in between exactly? I just keep expecting something to pop out and fill in the "underpants" stage, even if it is a bit smaller than advertised. 

The timeframe given is much too short for a useful fake. It could be a trick if the timeframe for first hardware would be 2025 or beyond. But the timeframe is real hardware before the end of this decade and we are near the end of 2016.

Thats why im playing around with this idea of a shortened first stage. Maybe that is the sort of intermediate step (between here and 200k tickets) that could also serve some launch market without requiring a whole new vehicle development.

I would like it if we could just shorten the upper stage too though I guess that is a lot more like producing a whole new vehicle due to its sideways reentry.

I found this timeline: http://futurism.com/elon-musk-mars-colony-all-his-key-points-from-todays-announcement/
but it didn't say when the 200k ticket was meant to arrive. If a shortened version could fit the bill then it could evolve towards the ultimate size and price performance. There are all sorts of ways to begin Mars flights without the full size 200k/ticket ITS.

[sdsds]

Maybe [a shortened first stage] is the sort of intermediate step [...] that could also serve some launch market

I agree!

I think quite a bit depends on whether Musk is willing to risk putting people aboard the Ship soon. Because if he can offer LEO tourism without refilling and around-the-Moon tourism with refilling, that could be huge both in market share and in mind share.

A shortened first stage capable of enabling that (rather than FH equivalent payloads) would be the bold move....

[IainMcClatchie]

It is not that ITS has to be fake either. That could be the honestly intended end point, but what happens in between exactly? I just keep expecting something to pop out and fill in the "underpants" stage, even if it is a bit smaller than advertised. 

Thousands of stadium sized direct-to-cellphone LEO comsats.

It's an existing trillion-dollar-per-year market.