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#20
by
Avron
on 04 Sep, 2006 22:33
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Rob
Do you think "Six" will have any impact at KSC?
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#21
by
rdale
on 04 Sep, 2006 22:55
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Certainly not for launch, and odds are very low that a system that far north already would not continue a swing north well before affecting the CONUS.
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#22
by
rdale
on 05 Sep, 2006 15:08
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nathan.moeller - 5/9/2006 10:28 AM
As long as they dodge the hail they'll be okay for RSS retract.
There's no threat of hail today.
New computer spins up a tropical disturbance over the Keys today which brings copious showers and storms late tonight and most of Wed for KSC. I'm ignoring that.
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#23
by
rosbif73
on 05 Sep, 2006 15:19
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I see TD Six has just been upgraded to TS Florence. The official NHC forecast shows it reaching hurricane status by Friday and probably turning northwards.
I'm no expert, but I think it's fair to say that even if it does take a more southward track towards Florida, it wouldn't get there before the end of the launch window (and it would be well out of the way before a landing back at KSC). Rob?
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#24
by
rdale
on 05 Sep, 2006 16:45
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Correct. As a cane it is more likely to curve north, if it stays weak it could stay in the westerlies but neither case has an impact on launch or landing.
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#25
by
Norm Hartnett
on 06 Sep, 2006 01:29
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#26
by
jacqmans
on 06 Sep, 2006 21:17
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STS-115 Launch Weather Forecast
Vehicle: STS-115, Atlantis
Issued: 6 September 2006/1130Z (0730 EDT)
Valid: 7 September 2006 1558 - 1610Z (1158 - 1210 EDT)
Launch Weather Team: 45th Space Wing, Patrick AFB, FL
Synoptic Discussion:
Today, the Bermuda high ridge is located over South Florida, and a frontal
boundary is moving into the panhandle of Florida. West-southwest flow is
prevalent over Central Florida, and afternoon thunderstorm will develop in
Central Florida and migrate toward the east coast. This pattern continues
through the next 2 days. Fortunately, the launch time Thursday occurs before
thunderstorms will affect Kennedy Space Center (KSC). There is potential the
sea breeze will develop near launch time, causing concern for cumulus clouds
within 10NM of complex 39B and isolated showers within 20NM of the Shuttle
Landing Facility. Also, the west coast of Florida will have a potential for
morning thunderstorms, and anvils from storms will advect toward the east
coast of Florida.
Our primary concerns for launch are cumulus clouds within 10NM of Complex
39B and isolated showers within 20NM of the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF),
and anvils from thunderstorms along the west coast of Florida.
The weather forecast is similar for a 24-hour delay, and for the 48-hour
delay, the probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch decreases as the
front weakens and high pressure begins to build back into the area.
Clouds Coverage Bases (feet) Tops (feet)
Cumulus 3/8 Scattered 3,000 6,000
Altostratus 2/8 Scattered 10,000 12,000
Cirrus 4/8 Scattered 25,000 26,000
Weather: None
Visibility: 7 miles
Wind: 120 deg @ 8 - 12 KT (60 foot pad winds)
Temperature: 85 F RH: 70% Dewpoint: 74 F
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch: 30%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 10%
Primary concern(s): Cumulus clouds within 10NM of 39B; showers within 20NM
of the SLF, anvil clouds.
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 24-hour delay 30%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 10%
Primary concern(s): Cumulus clouds within 10NM of 39B; showers within 20NM
of the SLF, anvil clouds.
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 48-hour delay 20%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 10%
Primary concern(s): Low cloud ceiling.
Sunrise: 7 / 0704 EDT Sunset: 7 / 1937 EDT
8 / 0704 EDT 8 / 1936 EDT
9 / 0705 EDT 9 / 1935 EDT
Moonrise: 6 / 1909 EDT Moonset: 7 / 0644 EDT Illumination: 6-7 Sept. 99%
7 / 1945 EDT 8 / 0754 EDT 7-8 Sept. 100%
8 / 2020 EDT 9 / 0902 EDT 8-9 Sept. 97%
Next forecast will be issued: 7 September 2006, 0700 EDT
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#27
by
rdale
on 08 Sep, 2006 04:31
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New landing forecast from NWS SMG mets looking good... Slight chance of a shower at KSC, with a chance of storms at Zaragoza and Istres but Moron perfect.
Once around - White Sands has a chance of storms (I understand it's been unusable lately anyways due to a muddy runway?) but Edwards will be all quiet.
I concur and don't see weather being a show-stopper.
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#28
by
leclaire
on 08 Sep, 2006 05:17
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#29
by
shuttlefan
on 08 Sep, 2006 05:27
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#30
by
leclaire
on 08 Sep, 2006 05:35
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shuttlefan - 8/9/2006 12:14 AM
leclaire - 8/9/2006 12:04 AM
The large mass of storms over central Florida are moving out into the Atlantic. Hopefully nothing new forms in the Gulf betwen now and launch. If it does, it could move over the Cape.
http://www.weather.com/weather/map/USFL0066?name=southeastussatellite_large_animated
LL
Will the storms be out of the way in order for tanking to begin on time, if approved by the MMT.
Looks like it's all clear around the Cape right now. Shouldn't be any problems.
LL
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#31
by
rdale
on 08 Sep, 2006 13:07
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All quiet at KSC, but line of storms off the west coast and their anvils are headed that way... I don't think things will be thick enough to cause a problem, and there clearly won't be any electrical activity connected to them by the time they reach across the peninsula.
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#32
by
rdale
on 09 Sep, 2006 02:30
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Nada going on tonight, cloudy skies and dry weather expected. A shower could pop tomorow but nothing during the window.
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#33
by
psloss
on 09 Sep, 2006 07:22
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rdale - 8/9/2006 10:17 PM
Nada going on tonight, cloudy skies and dry weather expected. A shower could pop tomorow but nothing during the window.
Last night's SMG forecast talks about a chance of a ceiling at 2000 feet for Saturday's launch time (along with a chance of rain within 20 nmi of the SLF):
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/SMG_prod.php?pil=OAV&sid=JSC&version=0NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / ZS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
1000 PM CDT FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 08 2006
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-115
EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME: 1514Z
DATE: 09/09/06
RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY... KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT020 SCT100 SCT250 7 03005P08
CHC BKN020 SHRA WI 20 NM
.
.
.
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... CIG/PRECIP
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... NONE
ZZA ... TS
MRN ... NONE
FMI ... TS
THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED 09/0914Z
Update in about two hours...
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#34
by
psloss
on 09 Sep, 2006 09:29
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Latest SMG forecast shows a slightly improved RTLS forecast for KSC; no chance of a broken layer at 2000 feet and only a slight chance of showers within 20 nmi of the SLF:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/SMG_prod.php?pil=OAV&sid=JSC&version=0NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / ZS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
414 AM CDT SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 09 2006
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-115
EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME: 1514Z
DATE: 09/09/06
RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY... KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT020 SCT100 SCT250 7 03007P10
SLGT CHC SHRA WI 20 NM
.
.
.
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... PRECIP
NOR ... NONE
EDW ... NONE
ZZA ... TS
MRN ... NONE
FMI ... TS
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#35
by
psloss
on 09 Sep, 2006 09:34
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#36
by
rdale
on 09 Sep, 2006 12:11
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#37
by
rdale
on 09 Sep, 2006 12:14
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Pretty big storm about 70mi NE of KSC (48,000ft high) but moving away. Other showers about 40E but also moving east.
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#38
by
psloss
on 09 Sep, 2006 12:53
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rdale - 9/9/2006 8:01 AM
Pretty big storm about 70mi NE of KSC (48,000ft high) but moving away. Other showers about 40E but also moving east.
I was wondering about the booster recovery area, but PAO noted that's about 140 mi NE of KSC. He also said the weather isn't great out there, but it might be an interesting view from the booster cameras on the way down...
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#39
by
rdale
on 09 Sep, 2006 13:11
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Big swells from the tropical storm might impact them coming back tomorrow...