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Weather Forecast (2)
by
rdale
on 01 Sep, 2006 03:23
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For the new round... As I mentioned in the past thread, there's a good shot at storms Sun-Mon and the PAFB forecasters have now come onboard with that prediction.
They however are calling for great weather next Wednesday (15% chance of a storm) but quite frankly I don't see why. To me it appears the pattern of widespread showers and storms will continue through much of next week. NWS has a 35% chance of storms, and the medium-range branch says above normal precip expected the 6th - 10th.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif
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#1
by
Zachstar
on 01 Sep, 2006 03:36
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Well it looks like its going to be another "Interesting" bit of launch days.
I don't know tho somthing tells me they are going to bend just a little bit to get this shuttle off the pad.
Please keep us updated...
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#2
by
rdale
on 01 Sep, 2006 03:45
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I certainly don't have a picture perfect memory, but I don't recall them launching with storms in the area and don't see any way at all they ever would bend that one.
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#3
by
astrobrian
on 01 Sep, 2006 03:55
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Agreed that is just not gonna happen. You saw what they did to make sure that Atlantis was ok even though not directly hit by the strike on the pad. They are sure going to avoid when they can any circumstance that would lead to an Apollo 12 style direct hit. Look at how they followed the weather rules for STS121, no bending even when to some it seemed crazy looking at the sky.
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#4
by
Avron
on 01 Sep, 2006 04:09
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One good thing about the slip is the time is close to midday, so I think the chances of TS would be lower, it nomally is later in the afternoon .. but I would love to know the rate of TS in the area vs time of day in early Sept.. but I dont know how all this latest storm activity will impact that rate.. however it may be a mute point if we are talking ongoing storm activity..
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#5
by
astrobrian
on 01 Sep, 2006 04:16
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My guess (and hope) is that the atmosphere there may be getting pretty tapped out of moisture.( just my hunch - NOT a weatherman )
Texas is similiar in that if there will be any out of nowhere showers they tend to pop up later in the day with the daytime heating.
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#6
by
rdale
on 01 Sep, 2006 04:34
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"the atmosphere there may be getting pretty tapped out of moisture"
That could happen - if KSC wasn't surrounded by an ocean and Gulf.
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#7
by
shuttlefan
on 01 Sep, 2006 13:58
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rdale - 31/8/2006 11:21 PM
"the atmosphere there may be getting pretty tapped out of moisture"
That could happen - if KSC wasn't surrounded by an ocean and Gulf.
Again, it is Florida in mid-afternoon, in early-September. I think all the folks, on this site who are involved down there, would agree with my prediction from way up here in Saskatchewan, Canada!
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#8
by
rdale
on 01 Sep, 2006 14:24
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Actually it's just after lunch as opposed to mid-afternoon, which (if you are referring to "pop-up storms") means a GREAT deal of difference.
Looking at the data this morning doesn't change my thinking much. Should actually sneak in some dry air Mon/Tue but the winds start blowing out of the SW by Wednesday, increasing the coverage of those afternoon storms.
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#9
by
Austin
on 01 Sep, 2006 14:44
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With 5 days still to go, we're too far out for any accurate forcast with Florida's changeable weather.
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#10
by
rdale
on 01 Sep, 2006 15:13
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We all understand that, however that doesn't mean we (and the NWS / USAF forecasters) put our heads in the sand until launch day. If you look at the last thread, storms were in the outlook at 6 days out (for Sunday's launch attempt) and a storm in the area that afternoon would have prevented launch. My forecast from the week before was that Monday would be fine - and it was fine.
So forecasting (even in Florida) can be done. Let's not clutter this thread with "it will have to be a realtime call" and "it is [insert month here] in Florida, storms will form" or "you know what we say around [insert your location here, everyone says it is just for them] -- just wait 15 minutes and it will change."
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#11
by
Austin
on 01 Sep, 2006 16:27
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rdale - 1/9/2006 8:00 AM
So forecasting (even in Florida) can be done.
No doubt. My comment was intended more for folks who start getting worried about the prospect of a launch because of the weather outlook with days to go.
You seem to have a good eye for forecasting, Rob.
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#12
by
Avron
on 01 Sep, 2006 16:59
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Austin - 1/9/2006 12:14 PM
rdale - 1/9/2006 8:00 AM
So forecasting (even in Florida) can be done.
No doubt. My comment was intended more for folks who start getting worried about the prospect of a launch because of the weather outlook with days to go.
You seem to have a good eye for forecasting, Rob.
May want to have at look at the man's Website...
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#13
by
rdale
on 01 Sep, 2006 17:43
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Austin - 1/9/2006 12:14 PM
No doubt. My comment was intended more for folks who start getting worried about the prospect of a launch because of the weather outlook with days to go.
Gotcha - and as I reread my post it seemed to be harshly directed at you and that was not my intent... As we know the other thread got cluttered up with a bunch of junk and I wanted to nip this one in the bud by addressing all the things that filled up that thread ;>
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#14
by
Austin
on 01 Sep, 2006 19:56
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No offense taken, Rob! : )
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#15
by
rdale
on 03 Sep, 2006 13:07
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Nothing different in the outlook, PAFB forecasters now say there is a high chance of storms Wednesday afternoon as opposed to their earlier dry forecast. Basically the pattern is going to be the same through Thursday, so watch the radar any day and that'll give you a good idea of what launch day will look like. I'm optimistic that the early launch time will be our friend, but not comfortably optimistic...
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#16
by
DaveS
on 03 Sep, 2006 14:06
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#17
by
astrobrian
on 03 Sep, 2006 16:36
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20% chance of a delay? that pretty good! thanks for the post
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#18
by
rdale
on 03 Sep, 2006 16:45
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I turned off my weather system so I could get the Flight Simulator X beta last night (9GB download!) and forgot to turn it back on before leaving for church this morning, so I didn't get the very latest data. But in general I still think that almost every day over the next 4 will be close to identical.
Looking right now, I'm pretty sure the line of showers rapidly forming west of the runway and driftint east would be a no-go if today were launchday.
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#19
by
jacqmans
on 04 Sep, 2006 21:58
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STS-115 Launch Weather Forecast
Vehicle: STS-115, Atlantis
Issued: 4 September 2006/1100Z (0700 EDT)
Valid: 6 September 2006 1623 - 1633Z (1223 - 1233 EDT)
Launch Weather Team: 45th Space Wing, Patrick AFB, FL
Synoptic Discussion:
Currently, easterly mid-level flow is in place over Central Florida as the
high pressure ridge that was over South Florida yesterday migrates north.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop just to the west of KSC today along
the afternoon sea breeze, and the western portion of KSC may be affected
by this weather during the early afternoon, before the sea breeze
progresses inland.
Tuesday, the ridge will migrate back to the south, the sea breeze will
develop along the east coast of Central Florida, and mid-level westerly
flow will cause thunderstorms to remain pinned along the east coast,
affecting KSC throughout the afternoon.
On Wednesday, weather is favorable for launch due to a dryer atmosphere
and the launch window occurring before afternoon thunderstorms develop.
Our primary concerns for launch are cumulus clouds within 10NM of Complex
39B and isolated showers within 20NM of the Shuttle Landing Facility
(SLF). The probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch increases
slightly the following two days due to a frontal boundary approaching
Central Florida from the northwest. This boundary with the strong upper
level winds from the west may cause anvil clouds from thunderstorms in the
Gulf of Mexico and along the west coast of Florida to advect east toward
KSC.
Clouds Coverage Bases (feet) Tops (feet)
Cumulus 3/8 Scattered 3,000 6,000
Cirrus 4/8 Scattered 25,000 26,000
Weather: None.
Visibility: 7 miles
Wind: 230 deg @ 8 - 12 KT (60 foot pad winds)
Temperature: 85 F RH: 65% Dewpoint: 72 F
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch: 20%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 5%
Primary concern(s): Cumulus clouds within 10NM of 39B; showers within 20NM
of the SLF.
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 24-hour delay 30%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 5%
Primary concern(s): Cumulus clouds; anvils from thunderstorms over the
Gulf of Mexico and West Florida.
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 48-hour delay 30%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 10%
Primary concern(s): Cumulus clouds; anvils from thunderstorms over the
Gulf of Mexico and West Florida.
Sunrise: 6 / 0703 EDT Sunset: 6 / 1938 EDT
7 / 0704 EDT 7 / 1937 EDT
8 / 0704 EDT 8 / 1936 EDT
Moonrise: 5 / 1830 EDT Moonset: 6 / 0534 EDT Illumination: 5-6 Sept. 96%
6 / 1909 EDT 7 / 0644 EDT 6-7 Sept. 99%
7 / 1945 EDT 8 / 0754 EDT 7-8 Sept. 100%
Next forecast will be issued: 5 September 2006, 0700 EDT
Well it looks like its going to be another "Interesting" bit of launch days.
