Author Topic: SpaceX Falcon 9 - AMOS-6 - (Pad Failure) - DISCUSSION THREAD (2)  (Read 713258 times)

Offline MP99

Also in the article:

 "In the short term, this entails changing the COPV configuration to allow warmer temperature helium to be loaded, as well as returning helium loading operations to a prior flight proven configuration based on operations used in over 700 successful COPV loads. In the long term, SpaceX will implement design changes to the COPVs to prevent buckles altogether, which will allow for faster loading operations. ”

This likely means that not everyone involved in the investigation is satisfied that returning to the slower, less-chilled loading cycle will eliminate all failure modes for the COPV; but there have been enough successful bottles  to continue launching with the existing system until a redesign can be implemented.

If I were wearing SpaceX shoes, I would make the same choice, but it is not without risk -and Yes, there could be a common bottle failure mode underlying both the pad mission failures: Hence, the redesign.

The way it reads to me, this is the safe but less convenient method of operations. They want to move to a safe but convenient method.

Cheers, Martin

Offline Jcc

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Is it possible that some of the COPV issues discovered with AMOS also contributed to CRS-7?
From the article:

"Specifically, the investigation team concluded the failure was likely due to the accumulation of oxygen between the COPV liner and overwrap in a void or a buckle in the liner, leading to ignition and the subsequent failure of the COPV,” added SpaceX."

Assuming this is very carefully worded, they suspect either a void or a buckle. So the challenge is to avoid rapid pressure changes where expanding O2 could rip apart the case in a shear zone, like a phone book.

Also in the article:

 "In the short term, this entails changing the COPV configuration to allow warmer temperature helium to be loaded, as well as returning helium loading operations to a prior flight proven configuration based on operations used in over 700 successful COPV loads. In the long term, SpaceX will implement design changes to the COPVs to prevent buckles altogether, which will allow for faster loading operations. ”

This likely means that not everyone involved in the investigation is satisfied that returning to the slower, less-chilled loading cycle will eliminate all failure modes for the COPV; but there have been enough successful bottles  to continue launching with the existing system until a redesign can be implemented.

If I were wearing SpaceX shoes, I would make the same choice, but it is not without risk -and Yes, there could be a common bottle failure mode underlying both the pad mission failures: Hence, the redesign.

I am wondering what "changing the COPV configuration" entails. Sounds like a hardware change, such as to add an additional tank or use slightly larger ones, so that warmer and less dense He can be used, while providing the same pressurization capability.

Offline Johnnyhinbos

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I should know this, but I can't seem to find it. Does anyone know the ullage pressure the He is tasked with keeping the tanks pressed to? Is this a constant or is it a function of acceleration? Armed with that and the interior volume of the various tanks, one could calculate the required volume of He needed at its pressurization PSI, and from there one could further determine the number and size of He tanks required at a given high pressure storage PSI.
John Hanzl. Author, action / adventure www.johnhanzl.com

Offline MarekCyzio

Agreed but do they have the room in the S2 to mount the bottles externally? Would appear to be a better and safer solution but only if they don't have to stretch the stack any more.

A way to avoid the SOX problem alltogether is to use liquid Helium in an external bottle, like what Arianespace do for Ariane 5. That should also be a much lighter solution as well as providing more propellant volume. I'm surprised SpaceX did not choose to do this. I think any plan that loads Helium at below the freezing point of LOX is just asking for trouble.

Can't liquid hellium bottle be installed inside of LOX tank? It would simplify thermal control..

Offline Robotbeat

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A way to avoid the SOX problem alltogether is to use liquid Helium in an external bottle, like what Arianespace do for Ariane 5. That should also be a much lighter solution as well as providing more propellant volume. I'm surprised SpaceX did not choose to do this. I think any plan that loads Helium at below the freezing point of LOX is just asking for trouble.
That's really neat. I didn't know Ariane did that.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Proponent

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A way to avoid the SOX problem alltogether is to use liquid Helium in an external bottle, like what Arianespace do for Ariane 5. That should also be a much lighter solution as well as providing more propellant volume. I'm surprised SpaceX did not choose to do this. I think any plan that loads Helium at below the freezing point of LOX is just asking for trouble.

Why would it be lighter?  Granted, moving the helium bottle out of the lox tank would make the lox tank a little smaller and lighter, but then the unpressurized structure of the stage would need to be larger.  Unpressurized volume will tend to be heavier than a similar pressurized volume, because it is not supported by pressure in flight.  The low temperature may also increase the helium tank's strength (certainly that was a reason for placing the S-IC's metallic helium tank within its lox tank).

I wonder too if an external cold helium tank might need insulation.
« Last Edit: 01/03/2017 01:03 pm by Proponent »

Offline RDoc

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The CTE of the liner and the overwrap are grossly mismatched.  Aluminum shrinks away from the overwrap as temperatures drop.  Steel liners would have less of a problem, but I understand Elon decided he didn't want to use them due to cost and weight.
I suppose uneven contraction could result in buckling due to axial forces overwhelming the weaken radial strength if the overwrap pressure relaxed more in that direction.

However, it seems pretty odd to me that this wasn't previously discovered since I'd think that simulations and/or testing would have set operating envelope parameters for the tanks that would have included that effect.

Offline cscott

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The CTE of the liner and the overwrap are grossly mismatched.  Aluminum shrinks away from the overwrap as temperatures drop.  Steel liners would have less of a problem, but I understand Elon decided he didn't want to use them due to cost and weight.
I suppose uneven contraction could result in buckling due to axial forces overwhelming the weaken radial strength if the overwrap pressure relaxed more in that direction.

However, it seems pretty odd to me that this wasn't previously discovered since I'd think that simulations and/or testing would have set operating envelope parameters for the tanks that would have included that effect.
Possibly the buckling is triggered by the same "solid LOX pocket" mechanism that causes the failure.  That is, a bit of super cold LOX gets trapped and the bubble deforms the liner as it is pressurized, causing a buckle.

This wouldn't be seen in prior tests because the "super cold loading" and "immersion in LOX" prerequisites were missing.

Offline matthewkantar

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Seems like this buckling would be from cycling the COPV. Under full pressure the tank has to grow a little bit. When emptied, a variety of phenomena could cause buckling, not just mismatched CTEs. One thing I can think of is if the Aluminum shrinks faster from cooling, not just more or less than the overwrap. Having two very different materials in such close contact (and cycling) over a vast range of temperatures and pressures is daunting.

Matthew

Online LouScheffer

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The CTE of the liner and the overwrap are grossly mismatched.  Aluminum shrinks away from the overwrap as temperatures drop.  Steel liners would have less of a problem, but I understand Elon decided he didn't want to use them due to cost and weight.
I suppose uneven contraction could result in buckling due to axial forces overwhelming the weaken radial strength if the overwrap pressure relaxed more in that direction.

However, it seems pretty odd to me that this wasn't previously discovered since I'd think that simulations and/or testing would have set operating envelope parameters for the tanks that would have included that effect.
I'm pretty sure that Musk stated (though I can't find the exact quote) that the temperatures reached were outside of the range for which the tank was characterized. Presumably that's why they did not find this in testing or simulation.

Offline bstrong

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The CTE of the liner and the overwrap are grossly mismatched.  Aluminum shrinks away from the overwrap as temperatures drop.  Steel liners would have less of a problem, but I understand Elon decided he didn't want to use them due to cost and weight.
I suppose uneven contraction could result in buckling due to axial forces overwhelming the weaken radial strength if the overwrap pressure relaxed more in that direction.

However, it seems pretty odd to me that this wasn't previously discovered since I'd think that simulations and/or testing would have set operating envelope parameters for the tanks that would have included that effect.
I'm pretty sure that Musk stated (though I can't find the exact quote) that the temperatures reached were outside of the range for which the tank was characterized. Presumably that's why they did not find this in testing or simulation.

I recall that statement, but it is contradicted/clarified by the update. The update states: "the loading temperature of the helium was cold enough to create solid oxygen (SOX), which exacerbates the possibility of oxygen becoming trapped as well as the likelihood of friction ignition." The use of "exacerbates" implies they have reason to believe it can happen at higher temperatures, as well. Presumably, this belief is the result of improved simulations or tests.

What is still unclear to me is whether they expect reverting to the old procedures to eliminate the failures at higher temperatures (because they changed more than just the temperature) or whether the likelihood of ignition at higher temperatures is simply low enough that they are willing to risk it in the short term.

Offline johnhb

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REI post 2703, said it very well;
"LOX is incompatible with almost all organics (excepting fluoropolymers, to some extent), becoming shock sensitive, friction sensitive, heat sensitive and pressure sensitive, including ignition from bending due to localized hot spots.  The degree depends on the organic compound in question, but almost all organics are considered unsafe in contact with LOX.  LOX is  also sensitive to silicone.  It's furthermore sensitive to titanium and some other metals.
LOX deflagration with organic contaminants is not only possible, it's also brought down rockets in the past (X-1A and X-1D for examples).  I should add, the ignition source was "pressurization"
Do not underestimate LOX.  Don't get me wrong, it's nice in that unlike some oxidizers it can't undergo runaway thermal decomposition, it's not what you'd call "corrosive" compared to others,  and it's non-toxic.  As far as oxidizers go, it's pretty nice stuff.  But it's still an incredibly powerful oxidizer.  Things in contact with LOX are pretty much looking for an excuse to burn; they just need an initiation energy.  With things like steel and aluminum, the initiation energy is fairly high.  With organics, it's very low.
« Last Edit: 09/14/2016 12:03 PM by Rei »"

I don't think anyone who has read the ASTME handbooks,  "Fire Hazards In Oxygen Systems, Part 1 and 2" could ever condone the use of epoxy covered tanks  immersed in LOX.

These are an excellent and sobering compilation of the hazards involved.

One of the most troubling comments, pg 2-3, "The Subtle Oxygen Hazard";

"Some oxygen systems have given apparently normal service for decades before circumstances combined to yield and incident of fire."

Accidents happen where materials highly rated for safety in LOX such as  brass, copper, monel  and inconel
manage to catch fire for reasons that are obscure.

Probability is guaranteed to be much higher in the case of organics such as epoxy and carbon fiber.

I hope Elon eventually dumps the COPV tanks.




Offline rockets4life97

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I hope Elon eventually dumps the COPV tanks.

Already has. There won't be any COPV tanks on the ITS.

Offline MarekCyzio

Seems that old blog post from Wayne Hale's blog is relevant again:
https://blogs.nasa.gov/waynehalesblog/tag/normalization-of-deviance/

I can't imagine SpaceX had no clue about buckling, I think this may be yet another example of "normalization of deviance"

Offline Space Ghost 1962

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Buckling in this particular situation implies an inelastic deformation. Such deformations in a cryo environment have unusual effects that are like metals and not like polymers even though they are polymers ...

The chemistry of specific resins/fibers/interfaces in this environment allow for safe use as designed, within appropriate limits that one keeps to appropriately managed tolerances. Effectively - "stay within the box".

True of other aspects of LV's/engines too. Just one more.

Offline DaveJes1979

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Carbon fiber is my bread and butter, but in this case (if I could not re-package it outside of the oxygen tank) I'd just go all titanium or aluminum for the helium tank.  Take the weight hit and move on. I realize that is not trivial in the second stage of a rocket, but I'd rather take the performance hit than continue with the risk.  If that isn't tolerable, design around it in the next F9 variant or successor (re-package or go autogenous).

Offline Bynaus

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Could one use an external liner of a light-weight and chemically inert material to reliably separate LOX and epoxy? Like boron nitride in the hexagonal ("graphene-like") structure?
More of my thoughts: www.final-frontier.ch (in German)

Offline matthewkantar

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I am no expert, but solving a layering problem with more layers does not seem likely.

Matthew

Offline Robotbeat

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There's a LOT of weight bringing a titanium tank all the way to orbit. Not LEO, but GTO. And it may itself have problems.

What about shrink-wrapping the COPV in a fluoropolymyer thermoplastic? Totally seal off the fibers from oxygen intrusion. Shouldn't add much mass.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline deruch

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There's a LOT of weight bringing a titanium tank all the way to orbit. Not LEO, but GTO. And it may itself have problems.

What about shrink-wrapping the COPV in a fluoropolymyer thermoplastic? Totally seal off the fibers from oxygen intrusion. Shouldn't add much mass.

I imagine it would significantly increase the handling difficulties though.  If you design a solution where no microcracks or scratches can be tolerated, you have to be very, very careful in how they are handled.  I think if they can design a solution that allows for less fragile handling they will.  Not that your proposed solution might not be feasible. 
Shouldn't reality posts be in "Advanced concepts"?  --Nomadd

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